I can't promise you anything except a good opportunity to test your 5-buffs = no DoW theory
Well I didn't say ANY 5 buffs... and it's not really my theory... granted, things might've changed with the fall patch and whatnot so I'm not sure if some if this still applies...
From this:
http://www.carlsguides.com/strategy/civilization5/diplomacy.php
You can see that having same or different ideology PALES in comparison to other more important things (and that warmonger penalty, which can go over +100 is the scariest one of all and can override a multitude of green buffs)
Warmongers probably should consult here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/civ/comments/1nudz9/warmongering_calculations_updated_for_beta_patch/
And you can understand why going to war against a common foe (-50) overrides a lot of other transgressions (nuking them is also +50)
You can also see why stealing a CS worker via DoW and then making peace immediately when asked is much, much better than demanding tribute (which can be a worker) from the CS they pledged to protect (+15) which makes no sense at all and I wished they'd fix that...
Good Diplomatic Modifiers - Negative is Good
Score Action Taken by You or Situation
-80 We Liberated their Capital City - choose Liberate when conquering any City taken from them. Other Cities give smaller bonuses.
-35 We have made a Public Declaration of Friendship
-15 We have made Declarations of Friendship with the same Leaders
-15 We have Denounced the same Leaders
-30 We've Traded recently. This varies. A single GPT from you will not give a -30, but a Luxury for a Luxury will. Multiple deals may add up, but -30 is max, based on how good the deal is.
-30 They asked for help and we provided it. (Accept their request for help)
-20 Build a Landmark in their lands instead of Extracting Artifact
-15 They liked our Proposal to the World Congress - lasts 45 turns.
-20 We have helped them pass their Proposal to the World Congress - lasts 45 turns
-20 We have helped relocate the World Congress to their lands (Vote for them as host if they'll win anyway), lasts 45 turns
-5 We are both following the X Ideology
-20 You freed their captured Citizens (rescue Settler/Worker from Barbarian)
-5 You have adopted their Religion in the majority of your Cities
-3 They have willingly taken on your Religion in their Cities
-50 We have fought together against a common foe (War on same target, same time)
-6 You have no contested borders (either distant Civ, or they are not covetous of land)
-10 You forgave them for Spying
-1 We have an Embassy in their Capital
Bad Relationship Modifiers - Positive is Bad
Score Action Taken by You or Situation
+15-100+ Warmongering Penalties - read below. Can go far beyond 100 if you capture many Cities.
+50 We have used Nuclear Weapons
+35 We have Denounced them
+35 They have Denounced us
+15 We have Denounced Civs that they like
+15 We've made a Declaration of Frienship with one of their Enemies
+20 per Other Civs they like more than you have Denounced you
+15 You made a promise to other Civs to move your troops from their Borders, and then broke it!
+40 You refused to move your troops away from their Borders when they asked
+10-20 You built Wonders that they Coveted
+30 You have stolen their territory with a Great General
+80 You captured their original Capital
+10-30 They covet lands that you currently own
+35 They believe we are building new Cities too aggressively
+20 We asked them to stop Settling new Cities near us
+20 We made a promise to War with another Civ (10 turns), then broke it
+20 You made a promise to stop Settling Cities near them, then broke it
+15 They asked you to stop settling Cities near them, and you ignored them
+20 You made a promise to stop buying land near them, then broke it
+15 They asked you to stop buying land near them, and you ignored them
+20 You made a Trade Demand of them - Demand when interacting with AI
--- Your Spies were caught trying to steal their Technology - not a big hit, steal one tech but see below if you are caught:
+10 They asked you to stop Spying and you ignored them
+20 You made a promise to stop Spying, then broke it
+10 Ask them to stop Spying on you
+2 They are spreading their own Religion, but you Converted some of their Cities - Grows Worse
+8 You made a promise to stop Converting their Cities, then broke it - Grows Worse
+4 They asked you to stop Converting their Cities, and you ignored them - Growse worse
+15 They disliked your Proposal to the World Congress, lasts 45 turns
+20 We helped their Proposal fail in the World Congress, lasts 45 turns
+5 You have chosen to adopt the X Ideology while they believe in another. Adopting Ideologies sets Civs apart and can lead to War along with other accumulated problems throughout the game.
+30 You made a promise to stop excavating their Artifacts, and then broke it
+20 They asked you to stop extracting Artifacts, and you ignored them
+10-30 We are competing for the favor of the same City-States, depends on MinorCivCompetitiveness
+15 We bullied City-States under their Protection (gradually decays over 30 turns)
+30 Conquered a City-State under their Protection, and grows worse
+5 They mistreated your protected City-States and you didn't look the other way (decays over 10 turns)
So add up your buffs, then consult this page (very complicated but if you care to read it you can)
http://www.reddit.com/r/civ/comments/jcyda/ama_about_the_civ_v_brave_new_world_diplomacy_ai/
Basically:
================= Opinion =================
Addition of all Positive/Negative Diplomatic Modifiers. As you can see, > 0 is bad, < 0 is good!
-80 -40 -15 15 40 80
<------|------|------|------|------|------|------>
Ally Friend Favor. Neut. Comp. Enemy Unforg.
An Ally is -80, Friend -40, and so forth... an unforgiveable enemy is 80+
These affect how expensive it is to get stuff from them, how much they will ask for a war bribe or WC vote, and how willing they are to join you in DoW, etc.
You can use this to determine if it is safe to, say, propose something on the WC they don't like for example. If the hit does not carry you beyond the breakpoints above (if you are at -60 another +15 won't change your chances/margins on trade deals for example), then it is safe to do so without any negative consequences (as long as you still have the same green buffs).
Getting -80 is quite challenging, but doable if you wish to invest in it. It is nigh-impossible to be at -80 with everyone however (since not everyone likes everyone); being unforgiveable enemies with everyone however is quite easy
warmonger penalty alone can do it.
Then I recall a formula somewhere else (if I find it I'll tell you) which calculates an AIs chances of DoWing each turn based on their flavor, relative military strength and the position you have with them. I just know that, for example ally Gandhi has ~0% chance of DoWing me (according to what I read) despite him having infinite death robots and I have nothing.
Ally Monty is another story...