Can you win World's Fair without wasting hammers?

I am wondering if there is any way to know how much production is necessary to win the World's Fair? Seems like the only way I ever win is to have all cities working on it.

Any help appreciated.

The World's Fair costs 350 production per civ. The total cost will therefore be 350 times the number of civs. If you have contributed half or more of the total, then you automatically know that you have won; no one could possibly have contributed more than you.

It is of course also possible to win without contributing half or more of the total. But in that case it's harder to be sure.

The same applies to all the other projects, taking the increased cost of the next projects into account.

So much good info in this forum.

On the higher difficulty levels where it's impossible to get to 50% anyway; you also don't need to contribute as much either to be assured of winning since the AIs will be splitting their effort.

On Immortal on standard mapsize, 1000 Hammers into Worlds Fair would pretty much assure you winning that as would 1300 Hammers into Olympic Games; but you can normally get by with 20% less than that.

Also, when it's showing 96%+ complete, it's going to complete on an AIs turn, so you may as well stop production now and start working on your next city builds.

The "manufactured goods"-statistics in the demographics-screen can be very useful too. If there's a major difference between the leader and the average and the project is progressing quite fast, then you should probably invest more hammers than you would need to if all the Civs were on par with each other, because chances are that the leader is investing quite a bit.

If you aim for fast results on average levels you often have to do it almost all by yourself or it will take an eternity to earn bonuses.

I sometimes skip the 1st turn of construction in order to measure AI's efficiency. If it's slow, it will increase over time so don't be fooled with it, but it usually also means that there is not a strong production leader in the game and you should be able to win with 200-250% of your theoretic share. That means ~800 hammers for World Fair. If the progress is quick, I'd suggest to go for 1000-1100.

If AIs manufactured goods is way more than yours (like 2x) then don't bother winning. Contribute 350 hammers and take the second prize. If the AIs manufactured goods is comparable or even just 1.5x more, I would commit every city to the fair. Better win it by over committing than losing it by not be committing.

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All makes sense

Just want to say that I agree with the 800 = victory target, and in general I find that a good target is twice as much as you need to win a silver (which I guess is what your civ's share should be?) The 2x rule applies to all the world projects, though 2.2x is maybe twice as safe. (Like, I'd guess 700 would win it 70% of the time, and 800 would win at least 85% of the time, if not more.)

Vitruvius said:

If AIs manufactured goods is way more than yours (like 2x) then don't bother winning. Contribute 350 hammers and take the second prize.

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Not 100% sure this is true; I feel like I've won before even with being far behind on hammers. AIs can be at war, or not give their tiny cities (of which they can have a ton) the project to work on. Not a given they will pour their hearts into the Fair or Games or (should things get that far) ISS.

I had a game the other night, and I think I won it by contributing close to 1,200 points, and I just eked it out by a few points.

I am Askia and Warmongering along but I want to culture bulb my GM's I have saved along the way after getting the World's Fair culture bonus plus the bonus from a GA.

Gotta get the Fair first. So 12 Civs times 350 = 4200 hammers. How many do I need to win safely????

Well, 4200 / 2 = 2100 hammers. But it all depends - how many cities do you have, what are their hammer output per turn and where do you rank for manufactured goods?

You can come in first in the world's fair sometimes. I had 1st once in the Immortal difficulty and I couldn't believe it...

I usually win all the projects. One way I keep tabs to see how much relative effort I'm putting in compared to the AI is to mouse over the fair/games/ISS icon on a city while the AI's turns are going on. I have discovered that by moving my mouse off and then back on the progress will update allowing me to roughly see how much each AI is putting in in percentage. Then when they end and the CS are doing their turns I'll mouse over to see the total change. Then your points are applied. See how much your percentage compares to the AI progress that turn and you'll have an idea if you're winning. One game when I had low production I saw 2 slow turns where I was winning, then suddenly Korea began putting in more percentage then me. I did some math based on teh difference and number of turns put in and put all my cities on production focus. Watched it again, and realized I'd have enough to win if things continued as normal. Sure enough I had timed it perfectly and he lost by 100 hammers 1100 to 1200 This is all contingent on how fast your computer is as AI turns blaze by quicker than you can check on fast computers meaning you only get an idea how "groups" of AI did. Knowing a little about each AI focus you can also guess who will be interested and if you will have tough competition. If everyone else is fighting a war you will probably have it easy for instance.

This is a weird tip, but it works for me and I've never lost since I started watching the AI progress incrementally this way. It's a bit better than just looking at the lump AI contribution after each turn as you have no idea if the contribution was evenly split or one guy did all of it. My way you can roughly tell how much everyone put in without cheating. Works in unmodded games. heh.

Also worth noting is that additional hammers aren't entirely "wasted". Those extra hammers that you put in take away from what the AIs can, so by putting in more hammers you could be preventing 1 or 2 AIs from getting a 2nd place prize. If you have the highest manufactured goods it might be a good idea to spam as many hammers as possible into the fair to prevent the AIs from getting bonuses from it, but it depends on your situation