SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

Begged 40: Gandhi, Genghis
Begged 40 and failed: Monty, Liz
hmm, I wonder if the beg counter is per team. We succeeded with 1 from west and north but failed with the other partner. This might explain our lack of success with begging this game.
 
Option 1: Attack ragnar's galleon with our galleon in Wizard City this turn T182

Looks like The Wicked Witch of the East has a Caravel 1-SE of Wizard City (formerly New York). I don't see an enemy Galleon.

Option 3: cease fire.
We temporarily would lose the shared military struggle bonuses, but I think this is fine since we have multiple ways to improve the relations still.

The diplomatic bonus for Mutual Military Struggle will not be temporarily lost, though it may decay over time during Peace.

Secure the votes

Relations
work in progress, but I think we have this well handled as well. Only thing we really want to do is get spies in place for insurance and the required flip of Monty back to Taoism on or after T185

Diplomatic Victory Resolution Ballot is at the beginning of t188, so anything done to affect diplomatic relations positively must occur on t187 or earlier (t188 is too late).

spy in Trojan Horse will remain, plans to flip him back to Taoism T185, backup spy next to TH will jump in and try again T187, 2 more spies will be built and jump in T187 after backup spy, and try again T188 twice

Taoism conversion in t188 is too late for the DV vote. Must be done t187 or earlier

On T188 last minute switch to hereditary rule is in order for an additional +1 with Elizabeth.

This must occur t187 or earlier to have the desired affect of the DV vote in t188.

Preventing last minute switch to free religion
If I think we will lose an AI's vote by them switching to free religion, then I will either ask them to change civics diplomatically on T185 or later or I will use a spy to change one of their civics on T185 or later.

This switch should be done on t184, so the Civ can't switch to Free Religion, until t188 when it can no longer can affect their DV vote.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
hmm, I wonder if the beg counter is per team. We succeeded with 1 from west and north but failed with the other partner. This might explain our lack of success with begging this game.

Perhaps.

In my opinion, we are begging for too much from AI too far from us to share borders and maybe not enough from AI that share our borders. I believe we can beg for three times as much from AI we share borders with than with those lacking common borders with us.

I have spoken out on this point several times in the past, but no one seems to notice it or at least they seem to ignore it.

I also believe we are begging too frequently and this is probably our biggest issue with begging.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
I vote we take the ceasefire right now. Rather than fight 2 caravels with our precious galleons, we should pause the war for 2 or 3 turns, probably 3 turns.

We should also take the time to move a blimp down in front of our Wizard fleet and check the oceans ahead for Eastern Witch caravels to aid our decision.


This preserves the opportunity for us to grab another big city or two, or more if we somehow don't win on T189. The main question is, how sure are we that we can grab more than Bactrain if we go to war again? We would need to land the force T186 and take a city T187 right?
 
It looks like we are currently +8 with Monty, and might be +7 if we declare a ceasefire (less shared war bonus).

Do we need both AI to be friendly or +8 for them to vote us into the UN chair? I'm terrible at diplo games. I can't imagine us not winning the UN chair, but never hurts to ask in case we might want to hold off the ceasefire a turn.


I'm surprised both West Witches are still at +1 shared resource T182.
 
The timer is ticking... plan to win in 8 turns (T182, T183, T184, T185, T186, T187, T188, T189 victory screen)

...

Preventing last minute switch to free religion
If I think we will lose an AI's vote by them switching to free religion, then I will either ask them to change civics diplomatically on T185 or later or I will use a spy to change one of their civics on T185 or later.

Random thoughts for the turn set
  • trade physics to shaka for constitution and 120 gold (I hope to trade for corporation for the free trade route in all of our cities soon)
  • finishing the fort NW of Madurai will let us get the knights from Cultural Bridge to the front against Ragnar in 2 turns. A little sad to see the other fort farmed over near Madurai
  • airships to Kolhapur, should be able to hit Ragnar's city without a castle that is in the SE corner
  • drop medic knight in galleon stack so galleons heal a bit faster
  • I see Karl is finishing a road for the emergency backup spy for gandhi
  • looks like a granary in the river city north of the capital makes sense
  • more missionaries? I'll see if they might make sense.
  • more spies will be built
  • I need to figure out where the best granary purchases are. I will be prioritizing spy and missionary builds rather than wealth builds especially since the cease fire will give me a temporary breather from the war weariness. This means I will likely have the gold to buy at least a couple of granaries. Where will they make the most impact?
    Is a granary cheaper than buying another settler in terms of gold for population?




That all looks pretty good. I agree that attempting to storm Ragnar's eastern most city makes sense. It doesn't have a castle, and it is about as far from his reinforcements as possible. By the time he can reinforce or his huge stack of doom can counterattack the game should be over I'd imagine.

No idea on the granaries, just whatever gets us the most population of course.
 
Looks like The Wicked Witch of the East has a Caravel 1-SE of Wizard City (formerly New York). I don't see an enemy Galleon.



The diplomatic bonus for Mutual Military Struggle will not be temporarily lost, though it may decay over time during Peace.
when one of you drops out of the war, the mutual military struggle diplo bonus decreases by 1.
Secure the votes



Diplomatic Victory Resolution Ballot is at the beginning of t188, so anything done to affect diplomatic relations positively must occur on t187 or earlier (t188 is too late).



Taoism conversion in t188 is too late for the DV vote. Must be done t187 or earlier



This must occur t187 or earlier to have the desired affect of the DV vote in t188.



This switch should be done on t184, so the Civ can't switch to Free Religion, until t188 when it can no longer can affect their DV vote.

Sun Tzu Wu

Okay I'll switch the dates.
 
It looks like we are currently +8 with Monty, and might be +7 if we declare a ceasefire (less shared war bonus).

Do we need both AI to be friendly or +8 for them to vote us into the UN chair? I'm terrible at diplo games. I can't imagine us not winning the UN chair, but never hurts to ask in case we might want to hold off the ceasefire a turn.


I'm surprised both West Witches are still at +1 shared resource T182.

We need +8 after hidden modifiers for a diplomatic victory. I think the theshold is less for winning the UN chair, but I don't know exactly what it is. If you check the victory screen for diplo you can see that Monty will vote for us for the UN chair, but currently will not for the diplo victory.

Yeah I'm going to try and give them more resources to get that to +2.
 
Perhaps.

In my opinion, we are begging for too much from AI too far from us to share borders and maybe not enough from AI that share our borders. I believe we can beg for three times as much from AI we share borders with than with those lacking common borders with us.

I have spoken out on this point several times in the past, but no one seems to notice it or at least they seem to ignore it.

I also believe we are begging too frequently and this is probably our biggest issue with begging.

Sun Tzu Wu

So when and how much do you recommend we beg from the south witches? (obviously the sooner we get the gold the better, and should I beg for shaka's 120 gold instead of trading physics for constitution and the gold?) What is the max you expect we could get?

we share borders with both (wizard city) and we begged mansa on T120 last I believe and we have begged shaka twice on T153 (both failures)
 
Random thoughts for the turn set
[*] finishing the fort NW of Madurai will let us get the knights from Cultural Bridge to the front against Ragnar in 2 turns. A little sad to see the other fort farmed over near Madurai


Yeah, though food has been tight for Madurai at the culture slider levels we'd judged to use, and we've certainly worked that farm when it was the only one available. Perhaps we could have got up another Gfarm first. We certainly haven't wanted to use it as a fort since Hood went through, and the rest of the war is just icing the cake.

[*] I need to figure out where the best granary purchases are. I will be prioritizing spy and missionary builds rather than wealth builds especially since the cease fire will give me a temporary breather from the war weariness. This means I will likely have the gold to buy at least a couple of granaries. Where will they make the most impact?
Is a granary cheaper than buying another settler in terms of gold for population?
Looks like a granary in middle city, ham, bacon, ayodhya all translate into 1 more pop by end of T187. There is one more place to put a settler 3N1E of Varanasi. I'll build a settler in Washington since it isn't growing anyways.

Yes, buying a granary in the next turn or two rates to be worth a population in each of those cities. Optimal time to purchase is the turn where it puts on enough food to about half-fill the box.
 
Perhaps.

In my opinion, we are begging for too much from AI too far from us to share borders and maybe not enough from AI that share our borders. I believe we can beg for three times as much from AI we share borders with than with those lacking common borders with us.

I have spoken out on this point several times in the past, but no one seems to notice it or at least they seem to ignore it.

I also believe we are begging too frequently and this is probably our biggest issue with begging.

Sun Tzu Wu

I don't recall anybody running any tests, so perhaps being wise after the fact is not as helpful as testing would have been :)
 
There's a new spy built in Madurai which can get to Madras to board a boat to get dropped somewhere in Ragnar's lands. Or we could use our new worker army to raod the Gmine to get him to Kolhalpur. Getting him to the non-castled Tonsberg would require a galleon chain, however he could get to Jelling while the assault on Tonsberg took place and perhaps allow us to take Tonsberg with maces and Jelling with knights. If so, we'll probably want a few turns of partial EP slider once the granaries are built.
 
I'm happy with bc's option 3 (short cease fire, then some more war, then peace with Cimmerian) but I think the value of the war is only in keeping the team amused :)

The cease fire is somewhat useful in reassembling the landing force to get to Ragnar, because the Asoka caravels are blocking likely embarkation points (and we'd have to build some roads for those).

There's a pre-bought spy on the queue in Wizard City (we bought it on T181 before we saw Ragnar's caravel). There's some pikes on queues in Fur City and Indraprastha. Hood could swing north to help a naval assault on Cimmerian if we really wanted to.
 
Note that population that grows T188-189 gets counted in our votes (tested). I presume that means that cities conquered or gifted on T188 count for votes.

We could gift Boston back to Liz when/if we become confident that she won't switch. Is mid-T188 an option for that gift? bc thinks relations end of T187 determine the vote. Easy to test if we care (DOW someone after a vote).
 
Preventing last minute switch to free religion
If I think we will lose an AI's vote by them switching to free religion, then I will either ask them to change civics diplomatically on T184-T187 or I will use a spy to change one of their civics on T184-T187 or later.

I suspect most of these AI's would still vote for us even if free religion. What's hurting the relations mostly is when they are in an opposing religion as that typically comes with something like a -4.
 
So when and how much do you recommend we beg from the south witches? (obviously the sooner we get the gold the better, and should I beg for shaka's 120 gold instead of trading physics for constitution and the gold?) What is the max you expect we could get?

we share borders with both (wizard city) and we begged mansa on T120 last I believe and we have begged shaka twice on T153 (both failures)

I believe it was shulec who pointed out the following forum post on the subject of "begging":

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=6224468&postcount=12

Based on it, my recommendations are beg from Civs that are Pleased or Friendly:

Begging Period:

1 turn...... 5% chance they forget
5 turns..... 23%
10 turns ... 40%
15 turns ... 54%
20 turns ... 64%
25 turns ... 72%
30 turns ... 79%
35 turns ... 83%
40 turns ... 87%
45 turns ... 90%
50 turns ... 92%
60 turns ... 95%
...

You can pick any of the above frequencies. I would beg in the range 45-60 turns with success ranging from 90-95%. Beg sooner, only if you are desperate for the begging Wealth pay-off.

Amount to Beg:

Each Civ starts with 50 beg points = 25 Wealth of begging (2 beg points = 1 Wealth). For Civs sharing Borders on the same land mass, beg points increment by 6 each turn (3 Wpt). For overseas Civs, beg points increment by 2 each turn (1 Wpt). For Civs without common borders on the same Land Mass, I'm guessing, beg points increment by 2 each turn (1 Wpt); The author of the post suggested that this might be true, but didn't test this last hypothesis.

Safe Begging:

<Amount to Beg Civ> = (<Current Turn #> - Max(<Turn # of Last Successful Beg of Civ>, <Turn # Civ first met>)) x <Closeness Factor> Wealth

<Closeness Factor> = 3 for Civs that share borders on same land mass
<Closeness Factor> = 1 for Civs that do not share borders or are not on same land mass

Add 25 to <Amount to Beg Civ>, if this is your first beg of this Civ.

<Amount to Beg Civ> is in units of Wealth (aka Gold Coins).

Begging to the Limit:

I believe the following is true, also based on the above post. This is an attempt to get the maximum amount in each beg. Obviously, the Civ must have at least that much Wealth in its treasury.

<Max Amount to Beg Civ> = ((<Current Turn #> - <Turn # Civ first met>)) x <Closeness Factor>) - <Total of All Successful Begs of this Civ>

<Closeness Factor> = 3 for Civs that share borders on same land mass
<Closeness Factor> = 1 for Civs that do not share borders or are not on same land mass

Add 25 to <Max Amount to Beg Civ>, if this is your first beg of this Civ.

<Max Amount to Beg Civ> is in units of Wealth (aka Gold Coins).

I recommend the "Safe Begging" amount, since that only requires exact knowledge of the turn # of the last successful beg from the Civ.

Note that "back-fill" technologies that everyone else has (or any other technology the Civ is willing to trade) can be begged for in case the Civ has insufficient Wealth in their Treasury to accommodate the beg amount. One should know the precise Wealth value of such a technology in the current turn, before attempting such a beg unless one isn't concerned about getting every last bit of begging Wealth right now (is willing to pick it up later).

Happy Begging,

Sun Tzu Wu
 
It went fail, win, win, fail, IIRC, but I don't remember the order of the people.

Top to bottom in whatever order they were in the Foreign Advisor screens. This should be still the same order if someone wants to go find.
This is largely academic though, we aren't going to try begging again are we?
 
I don't recall anybody running any tests, so perhaps being wise after the fact is not as helpful as testing would have been :)

It would help to be taken seriously without needing to run tests.

Here's the source of the begging information, provided by shulec:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=6224468&postcount=12

There's a lot of useful information in the forums. Not all of it needs to be game tested. Certainly, begging wasn't a critical part of our game. I don't recall anyone saying that tests should be performed to check whether our begging plans are likely to work.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
I just want to declare ceasefire and mash next turn and crush Wizard and steal a Viking city and flip Monty to Taoism and get the blimps ready on T166 to bombs away T167 and finish the game :crazyeye:

However, it is probably best to dot the I's and cross the T's. We are in no great hurry. The deadline is 2 weeks and we just about got this. I look forward to Bcool's PPP.
 
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