PREVIEW: staznes XI

My assumption was I would just treat certain things as canon for the sake of having a "cohesive" write-up and they would either be approved or denied in the final reckoning of combining all the write-ups together. Basically everything I say is a suggestion. (Much more troublesome, for example, would be calling an outcome for the Syrian Civil War, although there is presently no Syrian player.) Also, by going first, I thought I'd have the most impact on influencing subsequent entries, so there's that too.

Domestic Political History

With all the major parties under corruption clouds (like usual) and a public increasingly weary of the parties, the 2014 Presidential election was open for a left of field tilt by the popular major of Jakarta, Joko Widodo. While some expressed dismay at this decision once in the Merdeka Palace to come to a truce with the Parties, the inclusion of some real reformers in key Ministries such as Justice, Finance, Industry and Religion kept the public onside. His own personal probity and willingness to throw others under the Anti-Corruption Bus also helped.

With the choice of a military man for his Vice-President and willingness to let the military get its own back when faced with a spate of attacks by terrorists, Widodo managed to build the good relations with the military that previous civilian Presidents had not been able to do. With the security forces onside, Widodo kicked off efforts to deal with the specter of terrorism. Efforts in Papua proved slow but that hardly mattered given the small scale of the problem. More successful were efforts aimed at curbing domestic terrorists. The military approach of kicking down doors when combined with a judicial approach that emphasized lengthy jail sentences, huge fines and bans on association proved effective at curbing the issue. Widodo's decision to align himself firmly with Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama gave him a useful political shield against accusations that he was attacking Islam.

Efforts to tackle corruption proved to be ineffective. While arrests were made including of cabinet members, Widodo's first term proved unable to live up to expectations in this respect. While this didn't stop him winning a second term in 2019, he did so with a DPR that was less willing to follow his lead on key issues. Among the costs of their future support was a cabinet shakeup that saw his reformist allies in Finance and Religion removed. However, in what appeared to be something of an oversight, the replacement Finance Minister proved anything but biddable and managed with care and numerous appeals to the people managed to pass a series of reforms which saw the income and corporate tax bases broadened sufficient to fund a series of social welfare program including a pension and broad-based universal healthcare.

While Widodo managed to force these through a mostly hostile DPR, he burned all political bridges leaving his Presidency dead in the water. This last for about two years before Widodo in frustration reached past the parties and to the people. Tellingly the message he opted to take to the people was political corruption. However, people power proved insufficient to force the parties to allow serious investigations of themselves. So Widodo simply went around the DPR using his executive powers and strong links with the TNI to destroy his political opponents and force DPR compliance. It failed. But the parties had the last laugh and leaked corruption allegations against the last of Widodo's Cabinet reformers. Widodo's refusal to sack them sparked large scale resignations. Undetermined, Widodo filled his cabinet with whoever he could and pushed on.

It worked. Just. The parties called uncle and Widodo managed to force through a handful of highly symbolic reforms. Among those was a decision to crack down on the FPI and other Islamic groups on fringes of legality. The only substantive piece of legislation was a Presidential initiative which saw the provinces placed more firmly under the national government's financial control. Aceh typically was allowed to do its own thing. Papua was also given some degree of latitude. The ostensible reason for these reforms was to give the national government the funds needed to push for further social reforms. In practice, the reforms served to increase Widodo's influence at the provincial level, the chief consequence of which was the installation of a crop of Widodoesuqe reformers across key provinces.

With Widodo constitutionally barred from a third term and political poison at least among the parties, he wisely stepped down and kept his own views on the upcoming Presidential elections quiet. The eventual winner was a reformist officer in the Widodo mold with a moderate Islamist and University rector as his Vice-President. The election unusually turned less on personality than the perception (at least partly true) that the economy in Widodo's second term had been allowed to flag.

President Suhartono had cut his teeth reforming the military as Widodo's Minister of Defense in the former-President's first term in a little publicized but successful reform effort. His work on the economy was rather more contentious.

Given his role in root and branch reforms of the TNI, it was no surprise for anyone to find that Suhartono wanted to reform the economy. It was a huge surprise to see how far he was willing to take those reforms. His outright attack on large businesses and anti-competitive practices won him few friends in the DPR. But unlike Widodo, Suhartono proved more than able to work with the politicians and managed with some care (bribes, in effect) to bring a workable majority on-board. With those measures passed, Suhartono turned to attack the transportation and construction sectors. Inter-island shipping came under particular scrutiny and were made to pass on "savings" to customers. Quite where these "savings" came from was anyone's guess. Government construction of new port infrastructure made this more palatable. The next attack on food proved difficult but people power motivated by a canny media campaign highlighting the cost of monopolies in key consumables carried the reform. Again, however, government funds were needed to salve the corporate wounds.

The banks, the next target, were now wise to the President and rolled over reckoning that cooperation at least allowed them a hand in shaping the regulations. Other targets adopted the same approach. Flush with success, Suhartono picked up on Widodo's chief political legacy the pension and healthcare systems and added unemployment insurance to the mix. The reception of this proved mixed and lacked the electoral oomph that Widodo's measures had given him.

[At this point I decided that I'd take a break and sleep. More to come. I also intend to do some minor sections covering themes like the below.]

Environmental Issues

Environmental issues remained a problem. But with the Norwegians footing the bill and the value of carbon credits rising, the government soon decided that it was more attractive for the state to protect forests and reap the reward itself rather than let the forest barons hack the trees down for pulp. Of course that continued to happen, but with pristine forests paying up big, even the military got on the environmental protection bandwagon. Besides as alternative energy tech improved the lure of Palm Oil declined. While rehabilitation of increasingly redundant plantations was never going to happen, forestry became more attractive and the desire and economics to clear-cut existing forests correspondingly declined. The above also helped reduce Indonesia's carbon footprint significantly. But things like carbon taxes remained impractical. Even so, more efficient gas plants replaced older oil and coal plants as gas prices first declined and then collapsed in the later part of the 2010s.

Maybe if Azale were to quickly outline some general broad-stroke changes to the world.

For example, does alternative fuel arrise? if so, is it fusion? something else? If not, what are the effects of peak-oil, peak-agriculture, etc?

Another example, does the dichotomy between west and Islam continue or die out?


Then we could base our write-ups on these decisions.

Symphony D. said:

Although there were a number of scares over inconsequential rocks such as the Spratleys and Senkakus,

Click to expand...

That, right there, is a funny way to spell the Diaoyu Islands.

Iran please. Or Turkey or France. Any of the Muslim countries, basically. A Pakistan is fine too.

Immaculate said:

Maybe if Azale were to quickly outline some general broad-stroke changes to the world.

For example, does alternative fuel arrise? if so, is it fusion? something else? If not, what are the effects of peak-oil, peak-agriculture, etc?

Another example, does the dichotomy between west and Islam continue or die out?

Then we could base our write-ups on these decisions.

Click to expand...

Technological change will really be a collaborative process, with me making the executive decisions on what stays and what goes. It is my job to synthesize everything, all of it, with all of the overlapping and mutually exclusive parts, into a coherent whole.

I have already stated that global climate change is a serious problem for the world during the BT and must be addressed in some capacity.

Some of these other broader changes rely so much on which random events are triggered and what player orders/outlines look like that I hesitate to comment on them.

Federative Republic of Brazil in the house.

oh, hey, I'm Russia, this'll be fun.

As far as my opinions on the BT go, I think we shouldn't go to far into the future. If we start in 2013, I'd recommend ending in either 2030 or 2040. Going any further leads to a fantasy land of geopolitics and technology that I think would be hard to convincingly mod and write orders for without doing it year by year.

I'd like Turkey please. Else, Venezuela.

DOMESTIC/POLITICAL
The first priority of any government in Brazil, domestically, over the next several years (or next several decades) outlined by the BT will be management of the economic and sociopolitical consequences of climate change. The management of this issue will be unilateral, however, and will not fall under the auspices of any international treaty or coming-together on the issue of climate change and will be dictated primarily by the Brazilian government. Future presidencies in Brazil will have a relationship to companies seeking to deflower the Amazon (and other environmentally-significant regions of Brazil) analogous in some ways to the relationship of the American federal government to railroad and trust corporations in the early 20th century. The “busting” of logging companies will be undertaken in order to ensure that the Amazon Rainforest is not completely depleted, and additionally in order to undertake various conservation projects in the Amazon. The flavor and tenor of these policies will largely be dependent on the direness of the environmental challenges facing the Brazilian government, but shall primarily be colored by the creation of preserves, national parks and regions of conservation which are no-go areas for logging corporations (or for business entirely). Regions shall additionally be set aside for the replanting of important and market-relevant trees and the like, while similarly regions will be set aside for continued logging and exploitation. In terms of combating the material and physical effects of climate change, a the Commission for Climate Normalcy will be established in the late-2010's in order to spearhead the above efforts. The CCN will additionally (with direct approval and help from the federal government, of course) seek to remedy any material effects of climate change like the desertification of the Amazon or the flooding of the Amazon River [obviously it is difficult for both things to occur at the same time, but I understand consensus is divided on which is going to happen, also largely dependent on the severity of global climate change]. In order to prevent the manifestation of any significant damage to Brazil's economy, the government will reach out to international alternative energy, “green” and conservation-related businesses to assist in its efforts and close any gap made by the playing-down of logging and other vital industries which are detrimental to the environment. In regards to agriculture and oil and natural gas extraction, governmental oversight will be necessary for maintenance of these industries without the affectation of significant harm to the environment, and will be undertaken by the CCN and the Brazilian feds. New laws and oversight will be established and voted in by the National Congress (to whom climate change will become a significant local issue, if at first in terms of opposing conservation legislation for the benefit provided by companies operating in their jurisdiction but then in terms of holy-god-Senor-Patrigas-the-river's-flooding) in order to govern further exploitation of the nation's natural resources so as to ensure that these natural resources continue to exist further down the road. Temporary economic loss may be unavoidable in the question of oil and natural gas, as well as agriculture, if the issue of the environment and climate change is to be adequately-addressed. However, the stymying of reform by self-important legislators and by powerful corporations may serve to moderate our efforts and normalize the economy as climate change is combated. Eventually the development of new methods of resource exploitation, as well as new alternative energy technologies and improvements on existing ones should serve to rebuild the niche lost by strip mining, strip logging and stripping in Brazil.

Urban poverty and the like remain a significant issue in much of Brazil, so accordingly attempts will be made to combat poverty not so much on the basis of human charity and kindness but on the basis of preserving internal stability. The military will develop (to whatever extent it hasn't already) a large secondary role in the prosecution of law and order against criminal drug syndicates, and criminal syndicates of all shades. The anti-climate change policies and projects undertaken by the CCN will require some significant amount of human labor, in all likelihood, and will be used as Keynesian makework projects in order to employ the urban poor. Brazil will at some point in the 2010's open an international congress on education and invite significant names and organizations throughout the world to attend, in order to arrive at a consensus or at least some form of advancement on how best to educate and employ the urban poor. The relevant persons will come for Africa but stay for Brazil [by which I mean their attraction might be the urban poor in more glamorous, Bono-approved unfortunate places in the world, but their focus will inevitably drift or be pushed to more local matters]. Government paternalism will come back in style, if not because that attitude is already popular in Latin America or because it is embraced by the intelligentsia as superior but then it will be a matter of necessity. Funds will be appropriated, regardless of the results of the historic “Sao Paolo Education Conference”, to establish functioning schools in poor regions of major cities as well as in rural regions. Large infrastructure projects will additionally be undertaken, to the tune of interstate highways and the construction of large passenger rail, in order to socially and economically bind-at-the-hip the various regions of Brazil. While domestic and foreign standard industry is turned away (to the extent that environmental regulations and conservation efforts will interfere with the ease and efficiency of their business – profitability) high tech and “green” industry will be welcomed into Brazil, with tax cuts, breaks and government subsidization and all the usual fluff. Try (emphasis on try, I guess) to make Brazil a research and technological hotspot.

In terms of our economic relationships with neighboring nations (especially Bolivia and Paraguay) we should seek to establish economic suzerainty on both, with the goal of attaining essential control over Bolivian and Paraguayan oil and natural gas resources. The military will be instrumental in acquiring control, should brute force acquisition of Bolivian and Paraguayan corporations not be enough (in the event of nationalization, etc). The acquisition of the Gran Chaco vis a vis economic influence in Bolivia and Paraguay will be used to whatever effect is possible to alleviate our own losses via regulation and the like

Politically major efforts of environmental regulation and conservation are likely to establish a new political paradigm amongst existing political parties and groups. I am not able to accurately attest to the success or failure of any existing Brazilian political parties in the context of my proposed policies and projects, however, I'll dabble a little in order to ensure that the matter is at least at some length discussed in my BT section. As issues of urban poverty, climate change and the influence of the free market and government policy (or lack thereof) are put in the forefront of Brazilian politics the Workers' Party will regress to Marxist-Leninistesque socialism and idolicization of communism. Accordingly it will lose significant influence amongst the body politic, which will have lost the cultural and ideological ties to the factions of the Vargas dictatorship. Influence over the body politic will be held, with exceptions in the case of radicals and extremists, by the Brazilian Social Democracy Party and the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party. Implosion and segmentation being likely, various smaller political parties will emerge to represent the changing interests and concerns of the electorate and the like.

At the end of the BT (however long that is) the President of Brazil will be former general Vasco Rodrigues, distinguished for his instrumentality in the arrest and trying of various important faces in organized crime, as well as (potentially) the Gran Chaco Intervention.

MILITARY
Brazil will not have the benefit of being at the bleeding edge of military or domestic technology. However, the importation of high tech and green companies should lend a certain technological and research community to the country that will be more substantial and of greater significance than the one existing currently. This, combined with government investment, should lead to substantial spending on military modernization and the like in order to ensure that Brazil continues to maintain the largest and most advanced army, air force and navy in South America. It is likely that we will lag behind nations like the United States, Russia and China (etc) in the development and acquisition of modern military technology, however, we can hope to pick up the scraps from their projects, purchase downgraded or obsolete versions of their technologies, and develop our own (short of having the infrastructure and facilities necessary to develop our own right off the bat).
This is okay, however, as it is not my (the Brazilian player) intention to push Brazil as a American-style world power. Our sphere of influence and control will be wholly in South America. Our foreign policy goal will be to fully develop Brazil as the geopolitical determinator in South America, and the military will play a direct role in this. Failing the peaceful assembly of cooperative governments in Bolivia and Paraguay we will intervene militarily.

Consequently our goal militarily will be the maintenance of a modern and effective military, but failing this, one that is superior to other existing armies in South America.
Separate from the foreign policy aspect of our armed forces, the army will be used extensively at home to combat criminal syndicates and armed dissent against the government. As the Vargas dictatorship fades into Brazilian history, and as we cultivate a culture of citizen rule, military governmental ambitions will fade. This is not to say that the Brazilian armed forces will cease to play an active role in the government, as former military officials seek and gain political office throughout the 2020's and 2030's in the style of America's Grant and Eisenhower. Vasco Rodrigues (b. 1996? Some time appropriate to his position as an inheritor of the new pro-civilian army) will ascend to the presidency based on this template.

FOREIGN POLICY
The development of an independent economic policy lead to the deprioritization of Brazil's subordinate relationship to nations like the United States and European states. What resulted was a more active, partnership-like foreign policy between Brazil and the United States, as well as European states and other related powers (China, etc). The priority of Brazilian governments from the 2010's onwards was the acquisition of modern military equipment, the importation of successful American, European and Asian high tech and “green” industries, as well as fostering economic partnerships with the emergent “great powers” of the latter 21st century. In South America Brazil intervened in (or not, depending on the success of attempts to strong-arm other nations economically) Bolivia and Paraguay against repressive regimes, ensuring in some measure democracy in both states, as well as control of the Gran Chaco's natural resources by the Brazilian government and Brazilian corporations.

Fostering of a relationship with Argentina became important to Brazil as it sought to establish a solid powerbase in South America. Emphasis was placed on peaceful cooperation, as opposed to competition. We will seek to if possible secure a military alliance with Argentina in order to establish and maintain a status quo in South America which is mutually-beneficial.

Brazil's relationship to countries in northern South America and central America was largely maintained in status quo. Acquisition of control over the Gran Chaco's natural resources and the development of Brazil's native “green” and conservation-based resource exploitation economy allowed Brazil to maintain largely cordial and equal relationships with Venezuela, Colombia and others. Brazil would foster close relationships with Guyanna and Suriname, and maintained control of a small operations base in Suriname for space and aeronautic testing. The nationalistic ambitions of various Brazilian presidents to annex French Guiana went largely unrealized as Brazil sought to establish a close working relationship with the French government in order to acquire arms and naval designs.

-----
Largely theoretical, posted for the benefit of analysis and critique, etc.

bombshoo has been dropped as Palestine and added as France per his request.

German Development During the BT (part 1)

Updated July 16th

Energy:

Germany is already a world leader in developing green energy technology with a well developed plan- the already much lauded ‘ Energiewende outlining key goals and specific technical, political, financial and business mechanisms for achieving those goals. In OTL, this has already been highly effective and Germany already produces 18.9% of its energy needs from domestic renewable energies.

the International Energy Agency said:

24 May 2013
In a review of German energy policies launched today, the International Energy Agency commended Germany for its commitment to developing a low-carbon energy system over the long term – in particular its comprehensive energy strategy, ambitious renewable energy targets and plans to reduce energy consumption. The report noted that Germany has successfully implemented a broad suite of robust energy policies across all sectors notably in energy efficiency and climate change.

Click to expand...

The Energiewende includes the following key goals:

• greenhouse gas reductions: 80–95% reduction by 2050
• renewable energy targets: 60% share by 2050 (renewables broadly defined as hydro, solar and wind power)
• energy efficiency: electricity efficiency up by 50% by 2050
• associated research and development drive

A major part of the approach has been to incentivize development and implementation of new technologies at both macro and micro scale-levels as well as efforts to increase efficiency. Currently much of the renewable energy production in Germany takes place on the ‘small business’ level or even residentially with surplus electricity being sold back to the grid. Larger specialized operations, including those where the government acts as a major shareholder, will also be funded. Improvements to the electricity grid are absolutely critical to maintain efficiency and to allow distribution from new sources and these will be carefully timed to maximize cost : fuel efficiency.

Technically, the Energiewende depends on the development of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biogas. Much of our current budget and a slowly ever-increasing proportion of our future budget will be allocated to this. We are a current forerunner in green technology development and foresee continuing to be so.

That said, Fusion power development will also proceed, with Germany (alongside France if her player is willing) picking up the portion of the USA budget dedicated to ITER when the later pulls out to focus on Polywell technology. ITER is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER. Currently it is the world’s most advanced and sophisticated (and importantly best funded by a longshot- with funding coming from a variety of sources including the EU, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, and currently but not in the future if I understand correctly, the USA) fusion power research program. I have outlined it further in the technology section but the long and short of it is that a French-located, EU operated prototype facitliy may be able to begin commercial production of fusion power by as early as 2033. As a major shareholder in this project, Germany will naturally gain from this project and distribute the energy to its grid. A series of third generation fusion plants (PROTO) will be developed domestically within Germany and are slated to return power by the early 2040s.

Despite Germany’s Energiewende program, to avoid huge increases in energy costs and associated economy slowdown, in the short term German dependence on foreign sources of energy is projected to increase. This is because despite substantial increases in domestic renewable and green energy sources, domestic gas and coal production has long peaked and is projected to deplete by the mid 2020s.

Germany will necessarily be dependent on the import of foreign fossil energy. Policy will favor the diversification of energy sources and their transit. Our focus will be five-fold- the North Atlantic, the Middle-East, Central Asia, North Africa, and Russia.

Currently Germany already controls much of the European energy supply and its distribution and will continue to so for the foreseeable future as it maintains it dominant economic and political position within the European Union and with extra-continental trading partners.

Oil For the immediate future Germany will continue to be highly dependent upon oil produced from offshore drilling in the North Sea and Northern Atlantic. German oil production will continue to invest in new offshore drilling for the near foreseeable future. We will also continue our partnership with nations of the Middle-east and North Africa especially Libya who is already the number one supplier of crude oil to Germany. Germany’s relative good relations and ‘soft-power’ investments will be used to help make this possible. New pipelines (see below) will mean a greater role for Germany in the Iraq/Iran oil markets. We will also work with local partners in central Asia, in partnership with the Turks (in return providing political support for Turkish entry to the EU) to help access energy wealth in the Central Asian states. In the next decade (5-10 years), Germany will increasingly look to new partners in Africa including Chad and Cameroon and German state-backed investments will fund the construction of pipelines through Cameroon and to the Gulf of Guinea to supply domestic and European markets.

Natural Gas Because of the difficulties in transporting natural gas, diversifying energy dependence necessary requires the development of new pipelines. The Nord Stream Pipeline, which came on-stream on 8 November 2011, is therefore of prime importance to Germany and Europe, making it possible for the first time to buy Russian gas directly from Russia. The construction of a Southern Corridor will also provide a key new source of gas supply. The aim of the Southern Corridor is to transport gas from the Caspian region, Iraq and the broader Middle East to Europe and Germany. This project will be implemented with the planned Nabucco pipeline, for example, which is to have an annual capacity of 30 billion cubic metres when completed and is to transport gas from the Caspian region or Iran/Iraq to Baumgarten in Austria via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

African Solar As part of the energy transformation, Germany will work in conjunction with willing partners in (Spain, Italy, and) North Africa to fund solar production facilities, turning net importers of energy into net exporters. As major investors in these projects, Germany will negotiate favorable purchase terms. An example of an existing project can be found here. The increased German military (see below) will be used to guarantee these sorts of projects and to secure energy for Germany (and its African and European allies).

Wave We will continue to develop, though to a lesser degree than solar and others, the potential of wave energy in the baltic. See this article: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148106002795 Basically if Germany can work with Denmark, together we have excellent potential for wave-based energy in the straits and on Germany's northern shore- we should take advantage of this.

Throughout, Germany’s relative trade surpluses will be used, in the near future, to develop a significant stockpile of oil and gas reserves to offset the effects of sharp decreases in availability or increases in demand. As renewable resource energy becomes more and more affordable (due to significant continuous funding), these deficiencies will mean less and less and we can move to a more independent energy footing

Ultimately as Germany’s green energy development gain technical and manufacturing efficiency and cost-effectiveness, it will become a major German export product and a major portion of our trade export. Ultimately many other nations will need to develop alternative sources of energy as fossil fuel prices continue to rise and Germany will have (and already has OTL) a head-start on its development and manufacture. This will help fuel our growth and trade in the medium term and, in addition to repaying a portion of the German tax-payer’s and business-owners investments, will also drive further research and development of domestic energy technologies.


Military:

For the near future, the relative proportion of the GDP spent on the German military (Bundeswehr) will remain under 2% (its currently something like 1.3%). This means that much of German foreign influence will be based on soft-power, as both the premiere European economy and a major net supplier of foreign aid. Within the next decade, as resources are more scarce, a larger proportion of the GDP will go to the military until by the year 2030 it will have almost quadrupled to 5.0%.

The Bundeswehr is currently, in general is among the world's most technologically advanced and best-supplied militaries, as befits Germany's overall economic prosperity and significant military industry.(ref) and the focus on quality over quantity will be continued in the near future. In 2015, the, Streitkräftebasis (Joint Support Service), will be greatly expanded with a cyber-security division and a major component of the expanding budget outlined above will be spent on funding cyber security (until by 2025 cyberwarfare is funded to the tune of approx. 1% of the GDP, making it nearly on par with the Lutwaffe and larger than the navy). Its primary goals will be 1) to safeguard Germany’s military and civilian infrastructure and 2) industries from foreign espionage and sabotage and to 3) illicitly conduct our own industrial espionage to help maintain our research and development edge and to better compete in high-tech world markets. Its secondary goals will be to prepare for the systemic shut down of a nation or groups communications (including satellites), financial vehicles and assets, and both civilian and military infrastructure via computing-based attacks as part of a defensive response to attack either upon itself or its allies.

The significant increase in military spending will be felt especially in the computing sectors of Germany both in academia and industry and within the Streitkräftebasis itself. As a result Germany will be at the forefront of computing developments and one of the first nation to develop a nation-wide optical computing infrastructure (or whatever technology the moderator deems appropriate).

Other areas of increased funding will be hardening of electronic communications both long and short range, interception or interruption of foreign military and civilian communications (including the establishment of a wide number of SIGINT planetary and satellite facilities), and a focus on aerial superiority.

As a side-effect of our focus on computing, aeronautics, and hardened communications, Germany will take a leadership role in the development of pilotless craft. Despite this technological competence, the Luftwaffe will incorporate relatively few pilotless craft into its force compared to other powers. (This is a consequence of having seen the successes of the Streitkräftebasis optical cyber-attacks in intercepting and rerouting communications signals including those feeding from and into pilotless drones).

Lastly, Germany, as world security becomes a greater concern, will realign European space programs away from exploration or a trip to Mars or whatever and towards security of the near orbit. This means the development of reusable air-fighter-like aero-orbital craft capable of short trips to the near orbit to potentially fire upon satellites or other near orbit spacecraft and to safety return to earth. The goal will be to develop unmanned versions by 2027 and a piloted version by 2035. Initially the project will be developed as part of the larger European space effort but as the military nature becomes more and more apparent, Germany will ‘go-it alone’ or in conjunction with major world military allies (the USA? France?). Funding of our computer espionage programs will be critical in maintaining our edge and to learn from others vis-à-vis this project.

German Development During the BT (part 2)


Technology

Germany will take a multi-faceted approach to technology development. Academic and industry research will continue to focus on the increasingly lucrative biotech and medical sectors.

The German state will invest primarily in the following fields,

• Computing and later, second generation computing, be it optical or quantum or whatever the moderator decides. This will be driven largely by the greatly increase cyber security arm of the German military. This will translate into rapid adoption of the new infrastructure at both civilian and military levels and the development of major computing businesses within Germany.
  
  I disagree with amesjay regarding DNA computing. This is not going to happen in the near future and even if it does, it will be much slower and MUCH more expensive. Who wants a computer that needs an immune system or can mutate to lose data? Or just die if you don't feed it sugars or exact balanced salt solutions? If somehow DNA computing becomes a thing, I really don’t think it will be able to compare with even modern digitial computing within the lifespan of this NES. (quote from wiki: “for very large EXPSPACE problems, the amount of DNA required is too large to be practical”.
• Green-tech. As part of the Energiewende program, Germany will invest significantly in the development of new green energy technologies. This has already begun in OTL Germany and we are pretty far ahead of the pack. Germany will invest in domestic business to varying degrees (gaining shares and dividends) to help provide capital for development and to later recoup costs by sharing in profits.
  We will continue this trend and use our green technology for more than just domestic consumption. Indeed, green technology will be incorporated into the German industrial production making German-made vehicles and other products some of the most ‘environmentally friendly’ available and ensuring that foreign markets restricting pollution continue to import German-made vehicles and industrial products. We will license German green tech to other the companies of other nations thereby increasing our revenue for German shareholders (including taxpayers), making green tech not only an environmentally friendly option but also driving the german economy as more and more nation go ‘green’ and need the tech to do so.
  Additionally, green tech will be part of our soft-power projection. Nations unable to afford green technology, primarily in North Africa were we want to project more German influence will be provided with German investment and technology to help bring their energy production, especially solar, into place so that we can in turn purchase cheaper solar energy from them. In this way we will tie ourselves to these nations and generate good will as well as securing strategic energy reserves.
  Finally, a major component of the green tech development, based partially on our work in materials, miniaturization, and manufacturing (MMM)- see below- will be the development of new battery technologies (molten salt?) to make energy transportation in a post fossil-fuel world much more efficient. This will have knock-on effects in aerospace, military and civilian applications.
• Aerospace. Another military-led incentive, the aerospace program will focus on maintaining the Luftwaffe as one of the most sophisticated and advanced airforces in the world. As outlined under military, Germany will fold into its aerospace program the development of near orbital fighter-type craft able to operate not only within the atmosphere but beyond. This is mean to help establish control over satellite-based communications and weaponry in the event of a war.
• Materials, Miniaturization, and Manufacturing. Primarily civilian based development but with significant military and dedicated government funding, the MMM research project aims to develop new classes of materials, new methods of manufacturing, including nano-scale processing and to implement these materials in other projects, including the green tech, computing and aerospace research efforts.
• Man-machine interface/Cybernetics. While other nations and NGOs might focus on augmenting and replacing the body, the German approach to ‘cybernetics’ will focus almost exclusively on the interface between the body’s neuronal system and machines. We will arrive late to the ‘cybernetics’ technology ‘table’, not being a major player in its initial development but if and when it proves itself, Germany will play rapid catch-up (partially through its cyber-espionage and advanced computing programs). Our focus will be on remote sensing and remote-control operations, using our expertise in micro-scale manufacturing and modern synthetics to partner with international partners with better biologics programs (France?). Instead of things like embedded cyber weaponry or power-suits driven by cybernetics, Germany will focus on ‘rigged’ vehicles and static defense systems that are ‘piloted by thought’. If man-machine interface really takes off, we will start developing immersive software so that man s can ‘plug into’ computers and experience computing directly using heir nervous systems. With our focus on cyberwarfare this will have obvious repercussions upon the cyberwarfare divisions.
  Germany will not be funding the development of ‘power suits’ or implanted cybernetic weaponry or things like that.
• Fusion Power: I don’t believe (contrary to the USA player) that polywell technology will ever pay off (let alone in 1 or 2 years). Having read up on it in response to SymD’s link, neither really does the American government or navy. If they did they would be funding it properly. As it is its more of a curiosity and it looks to remain that way. Indeed, President Obama recently closed down significant domestic fusion technology development in favor of the only real likelihood of success- the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) program led by the EU in France. In RL OTL, The project is funded and run by seven member entities — theEuropean Union (EU), India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea and the United States. The EU, as host party for the ITER complex, is contributing 45% of the cost, with the other six parties contributing 9% each. In this reality the USA will presumably withdraw, choosing instead to focus on Polywell fusion technology. In this reality, as part of its green energy transition, Germany, in conjunction with France, will step up and fill the budgetary hole left by the USA’s departure themselves.
  
  Timeline of ITER:
  2006
  Seven participants formally agreed to fund the creation of a nuclear fusion reactor.
  2008
  Site preparation start, ITER itinerary start.
  2009
  Site preparation completion.
  2010
  Tokamak complex excavation start.
  2013
  Tokamak complex construction start.
  2015
  Predicted: Tokamak assembly start.
  2019
  Predicted: Tokamak assembly completion, start torus pumpdown.
  2020
  Predicted: Achievement of first plasma.
  2027
  Predicted: Start of deuterium-tritium operation[
  
  Based on these (I feel much more realistic numbers), actual fusion, and only at a research level, will not begin until 2025-2030. Assuming this time-line holds true, Germany will help fund a French commercial fusion power plant in 2025, called DEMO. DEMO is projected to come online and begin commercial energy production in 2033. As a major shareholder, along with France, in this EU initiative, Germany will benefit from electricity generated. A third generation commercial Fusion plant, PROTO, will be constructed in Germany, using EU technology in the beginning of 2030 and is expected to come online in the late 2030s.
  
  If Fusion power is allowed, I feel that this timeline and projection is MUCH more realistic then those made in regards to the polywell (my 2 cents)
• Laser Weaponry
  Germany will, of course, be a sophisticated developer of laser technologies, as it already is, but will not be committing a large portion of its research budget to laser weaponry, being happy to play catch-up to the development of this technology by other nations.

Importantly the cyber-security aspect of Streitkräftebasis (see above) will be paramount in defending our domestic innovations and leap-frogging the competition by staying apprised of their developments before they hit market.

Economics and Business

Germany is already the world’s second largest exporter ($1.408 trillion in 2011) and that trend will only continue and even increase in the future as Chinese domestic consumption, as well as rising consumption in the world’s developing economies require finished manufactured products. Currently the majority of its products are in engineering products, especially automobiles, machinery, metals and chemical/pharmaceutical goods.

German finance directives will continue to focus on these industries and incentivize their ‘greening’ to help maintain market penetrance in nations where a ‘green’ legislature exists. In addition, green technology per se will become a greater and greater portion of the German export economy as its early lead in the development of these technologies and the rising demand for them (based often on government regulations) creates a perfect storm of market dominance.

German business in the near future, as now, will be characterized by strong links between world-wide academic partners and other innovation partners. As such, German businesses will continue to be characterized by their high-end technical expertise, both in manufacturing and production and in service and finance.

Technical expertise will also continue to be applied to agriculture and Germany will continue its role within the European Union as a net agricultural producer (along with France and Italy). Despite the focus on technical agriculture, the German state will encourage a reversal of the massive mono-cropping practices of the 1990s and continue the trend from the 2000s and 2010s of establishing smaller farms serving local markets. This is part of the Energiewende and meant to produce more efficient food generation as well as to prevent catastrophic destruction of large segments of German agricultural production from infection (such as the wheat rust currently affected the middle east)

In addition to these economic focus areas, the late 20-teens and 20-20s will see the rise of the German optical (or alternative second-generation computing as determined by the mod) computer-manufacturing and software programing as Germany assumes a leadership position in second-generation computing- largely driven by early government subsidies arising from the cybersecurity military spending. One company, the giant, “Zuze Apparatebau II” or ZAII will dominate. The rise of ZAII will be to the 2020s and 2030s what IBM and Mac was to the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. Built on German engineering and manufacturing perfectionism and making use of modern business savvy, ZAII rides the rising optical computing trend, establishing a very early and very extensive market penetrance throughout The United States, Asia, Europe and the rest of the world. If its optical computing, chances are its ZAII. Because ZAII is built extensively upon early German military research subsidies and loans (and behind the scenes, upon the successes of the German industrial espionage program), the German people continue to be a major shareholder in the company and the state reaps extensive profits from the use of ZAII optical computing in everything from mobile communications devices (external and implanted), to thermostats, to military hardware to entertainment.

Another area in which Germany is predicted to be a very effective competitor is in modern synthetic materials. With it excellent engineering and manufacturing base, a strong link to research and development and excellent government funding for new materials, miniaturization, and manufacturing science, Germany will lead the world in nano-scale manufacturing technology and develop new materials for optical computing, large machine construction, city infrastructure, space-flight and even stealth materials for aircraft and navy.

Foreign Policy

For the next 5-10 years, Germany will focus its foreign efforts on ‘soft power’, continuing its strong relations with the rest of Europe based on its role as the lead economic power within the union and its willingness to provide financial aid to its sister nations. It will continue its special relationship with France, and if the French player is willing, continue to share a leadership role with France in determining the general direction and methodologies of the European Union, though with a soft-hand and with the inclusion of the voices of all the EU member states. With the USA withdrawing from ITER to focus on polywell fusion technology, Germany will step in to fill the gap, assuming, along with France, a dominant and leading role in this energy technology.

Outside Europe Germany will (depending on other players BT stories/orders) continue to develop its relationship with Russia, providing an alternative market for Russian energy and natural resources beyond the potentially more frightening Chinese and American markets. In exchange Germany will potentially work with Russia in developing its green technologies, providing, again, an alternative to American or Chinese dominance if that is appealing to them.

Germany will also continue to develop a relationship with the African nations of Libya, Chad, and Cameroon, assisting in the development of their energy and communications infrastructure and providing inexpensive loans for their domestic business development in exchange for cheap energy.

As the years pass and world resources continue to dwindle (assuming this happens), Germany will slowly make a shift from soft to hard power (5-25 year range). This shift will cause a gradual but significant increase in military spending (see ‘military’ above) and lead to closer military ties with the north African nations to match the existing economic and energy ones.

While Germany will develop unilateral ties with the listed African countries and Russia (see the Nord Stream Pipeline above), it will also develop agreements as part of the larger EU trading bloc with central Asia and Turkey, competing directly, in partnership with Turkey (in exchange for support for EU entry)(though peacefully) with Asian powers (including China) for control of the energy wealth in central Asia.

Should the EU or NATO seek war within the next 4-6 years, Germany will contribute a minor proportion of troops to the effort and focus on rebuilding and humanitarian aid. A similar war in the timescale beyond 4-6 years will see a more aggressive Germany getting more actively involved in foreign adventurism. Ultimately any foreign wars will be, regardless of the public or social justifications (these are horrible leaders with WMDs or whatever), be due to energy or resource requirements with German companies getting lucrative energy/resource trade agreements from the ‘new governments’. Germany will not take part in aggressive wars without the EU, NATO and UN to justify aggression but once its does will utilize the opportunity to test the efficacy of its cyber-security forces.

By 2035, I envision Germany being a net exporter of energy technology, largely independent of foreign fossil fuels and with very close ties with a limited number of African nations with whom it partners closely to produce solar energy. It continues to be an important and prominent member of the EU but its unilateralism in Africa and with regards to its defense and specialized space, and especially its industrial espionage, programs will have eroded some of its diplomatic good will within that community. Its military should have expanded considerably though with a focus on cybersecurity and aeronautics and orbital-aeronautics that means its conventional ground and naval forces continue to be excellent quality-wise but not substantial numbers-wise. Its airforce/aero-oribital force and computing forces should be top of the line in both quality and quantity however.

A NOTE ON cyber-ESPIONAGE and WARFARE PROGRAMS based on SymD's post 112,

Our policy regarding cyber-espionage is plausible deniability. Currently Israel, the USA, and China are all major players in the cyber-espionage game and Israel-USA relations have not been too adversely been affected. The USA and China routinely target one another and while accusations have flown back and forth, trade and other relations have not been too badly affected. Ultimately there will probably be a relatively small diplomatic hit but the benefits outweigh the risk and once we get to be really good at it, we'll be less likely to be caught.
I will not address the 'even worse' comment regarding shutting down infrastructure, because i am not sure what is meant by it, beyond saying that industrial cyber-sabotage is a real thing (STUXNET) and the role thereof is projected to grow exponentially in future cold and hot war conflicts..


Global Climate Change

(i used this for reference in relation to expected changes)

Basically even in some of the worst cases scenarios, Germany will generally not suffer massive changes in precipitation though summer precipitation may drop by ~5-8% (prediction are for the year 2080- obviously smaller changes are expected for 2030-2040) while winter precipitation may rise by, at most, and by the year 2080, 10-15%. What we do have to worry about though, based on these changes are spring flooding of the Elbe and Oder river basins. To alleviate the damages this might cause, we will begin a process of dyke construction and where necessary, resettlement.

The southwest is potentially at risk of rising summer temperatures which might stress the elderly and sick. Additionally this region may suffer reduced agricultural production. The first of these risks will be managed with a continuing public health system such as what is already in effect. The second will be alleviated, as outlined under business and finance, with the development of much more diversified crops- many of which will no doubt prove more heat resistant the the monocrops of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Perhaps the greatest threat is the increasing number of extreme storm events, though because of its geography Germany is much less prone to these events then say the UK or the American south-east. Vis-a-vis vulnerbility to these event, the greatest threat may be to transportation with roads and rails potentially closed. To help alleviate this risk and to mitigate other 'disaster'-related risks, Germany will continue its current practice of developing a proactive disaster risk management program with a greater and greater focus on climate-change related dangers. with adequate funding, shelters and supplies will be available throughout the nation should the worst occur.

Hmmm... I actually don't know very much about Korea. Ok then, I'll need to do some research.

So G4S currently operates in pretty much every country that is represented in this game, is there anyone who is going to have some reasonable event in their history that would mean my corporation would have stopped operating in your country?

If yes, I'll try to avoid mentioning any operations in your country and possibly add some detail about the reasons for exiting.

Also is there anyone that would think its likely that their country would have a greater reliance on private security and the management/education of your army?

Thanks

Explanation:

Data is for the US, all values indexed to 100. Data from December 2006 to March 2013. I charted three variables. The employment and labor (sic) force lines are both based on BLS actual. The labor force trend line just carries forward the pre-Crisis labor force growth using December 2001 to December 2006 (the high-point of the previous cycle).

Analysis:

The gap between the employment and labor force lines represent unemployment now. However, the labor force trend line shows that had the labor force grown at pre-crisis rates the unemployment rate would have been significantly higher. As it is, the graph also shows that American joblessness is likely to remain stubbornly high for some years to come and is very unlikely to return to its pre-crisis trend employment growth.

Conclusion:

America is likely going to spend the rest of the decade playing employment catch-up. Also, Europe is screwed.

Timeline of Important Events

2011- Failed acquisition of ISS (A/S)
2011- Successful acquisition of GMC (Guidance Monitoring and Chubb)
2011- Successful acquisition of CER (Chubb Emergency Response)
2015- Successful acquisition of ISS (A/S)
2015-Total employees surpasses 1,200,000
2018- Setup of G4S Armour International
2019- Total employees surpasses 1,300,000
2020- Total employees surpasses 1,400,000
2021- Increased activity and contracts with Iran and Israel
2023- Proposal for the acquisition of Qinetiq
2024- Successful acquisition of Qinetiq
2027- Expansion of G4S Armour International and Qinetiq
2028- Total employees surpasses 1,500,000
2031- Successful acquisition of Babcock International Group plc
2032- Total employees surpasses 1,600,000
2033- Successful acquisition of MBDA

Expansion of G4S

G4S has always been known for its aggressive expansion and acquisition of smaller companies. When the acquisition of ISS fell through in 2011 due to shareholder concern, the company regrouped and put other plans into action but left the acquisition offer on the table. In 2015, with considerable backing by its major share holders which now included notable people such as Bill Gates, the acquisition of ISS went through. This increased the total number of employees to over 1,200,000 and the company spent the next few years consolidating its assets and organising the business structure of the expanded company. This also meant that the annual turnover increased to 35,000 and ideas were thrown around about how to remedy this situation.

After a few years G4S had stabilised and felt it was necessary to setup G4S Armour International. This subsidiary company would be responsible for manufacturing and improving existing APCs and armoured vehicles. This move was viewed as necessary in a changing world, where the standard APCs could no longer provide sufficient protection. This was one of the first moves in increasing the survival rate of its employees to decrease the amount of personnel that had to be trained each year.

After the Syrian civil war and the other conflicts in the Middle East began to die down after the increased US support. G4S was signed contracts to provide an increasing amount of security and military services to countries such as Iran and Israel as they were lacking in finances and manpower after the long years of war. During this time the company sent out many acquisition offers for Arms manufacturers as they were seeing an increasing dependence on other corporations to ensure that their personnel were properly armed.

In 2023 Qinetiq (another British company) found itself in an increasingly difficult economic environment against the other larger Arms manufacturers such as BAE. They agreed to the acquisition by G4S and the deal was completed in early 2014. The company was quickly put onto the production of specialised arms to increase the retention rate of soldiers, but research was also being put into more advanced mass producible weapons.

G4S remained relatively complacent for a few years, as much of the revenue was put towards research (see Technology) rather than expansion. Finally, after Moore’s law began breaking down in 2030 smaller Arms manufacturers that were focused on electronics such as Babcock and MDBA began to suffer financially as they could no longer keep up with the giants who could afford the transition into optical computing, quantum computing and other similar areas. Soon G4S saw the opportunity to acquire these companies and put its research into use.

Technology

Ever since the acquisition of ISS, G4S has been trying to improve the survivability of field operatives and increase the retention of employees, such that the turnover rate of 35,000+ could be decreased. With the setup of G4S Armour International, they were able to make improvements to the existing APC and armoured vehicle designs. The issue was the ability to manufacture these new vehicles in a more efficient and timely manner, which was resolved somewhat with the purchase of Qinetiq, which provided the manufacturing base that G4S was in need of.

G4S began to see the need to invest in more compact computing and chose to opt with DNA computing incorporated into cybernetic enhancements. This meant that they could avoid the possibility that signals being sent by techniques like cloud computing could be detected. Powered exoskeletons in conjunction with cybernetic implants were invested in early by G4S and soon it became compulsory that each field operative would at the very least be equipped with a powered exoskeleton and could take on improvements such as a cybernetic eye if they so wished. With the use of cybernetic limbs came the added bonus that even injured soldiers could be put back into the field possibly stronger and faster than they were before. This improvements drastically reduced the turnover rate 30,000 even though the number of employees was already over 1,500,000.

Once Babcock and MDBA were acquired the manufacturing and research base of the company was now sufficient to sustain its involvements in conflicts and security, with minimal reliance on other companies for weapons, vehicles and equipment. The main innovation of G4S was the production of a standard-issue powered exoskeleton known as the ‘Legionnaire’ model. This suit became a common site across the world in conflicts where G4S was involved and its capabilities were clearly demonstrated.

G4S continued to use its subsidiary companies factories to continue producing armoured vehicles such as stealth fighters and tanks, though G4S made a clear transition towards a more infantry based army. It became clear that with advanced targeting systems and more powerful weapons, only stealthy squads of extremely well-trained and equipped individuals would have a chance of completing tasks in a conflict. Thus, more emphasis was put towards stealth helicopters, larger transports and faster/stealthier APCs.

Operations

G4S still continues many of its security services, such as guarding important businessmen, ambassadors and providing secure prisons. G4S continues to operate all around the world, though countries that have been finding a strain financially have been able to outsource their military operations to G4S as it is cheaper and G4S provides more specialised field operatives to suit the task.

G4S still demonstrates seemingly no qualms about the countries or causes that it serves. It simply agrees to contracts that offer a decent payout and simply vows to see them through to completion. There have been no reports that G4S has signed multiple contracts at the same time that conflict with each other, though there are always conspiracy theorists and nay-sayers who believe that G4S is simply seeking the largest pay checks and doesn’t care who gets hurt along the way (including their own operatives).

Global Warming

G4S doesn’t encounter as much of the pressure that many nations have to reduce their carbon footprint, as they are an NGO. They do however obey the regulations in the countries where their factories are located (mostly UK) and where it is more profitable they use greener fuels. With rising ocean levels and slightly increased temperatures, there has been a slight emphasis on training in water, though that is relatively insignificant.

P.S. More to come

Hey Azale, what's the plan right now? Are BT orders to be put up here, or in a proper thread? Are you going to have any BT specifications, like we get to emphasize military over economy etc etc, or get to plan 3 wars? or would you like us to discuss that?

J.K. Stockholme said:

Hey Azale, what's the plan right now? Are BT orders to be put up here, or in a proper thread? Are you going to have any BT specifications, like we get to emphasize military over economy etc etc, or get to plan 3 wars? or would you like us to discuss that?

Click to expand...

Good set of questions!

1. The plan is to poop around on this thread until I get the (probably simple) stats assembled, a map with South Sudan & Kosovo, and a few loose ends tied up. Then I'll put up the official thread.

2. Actual BT ORDERS will be pmed to me once the official thread is up. What people right now are posting are in a weird nebulous place between backgrounder and order, because since there is no official BT order guidelines or even a ruleset I can't consider them truly "official orders". What is likely is to happen is that the official orders will be tweaked, expanded, etc but look largely similar to what the backgrounders look like.

3. I would like you guys to discuss that, though I think I do what some kind of simple "emphasis system" if you will. Symphony's backgrounder for instance is very succinct, but if someone elses is a little more muddled I don't want any confusion. The "emphasis system", if implemented correctly, could make my life easier. I can get the tl;dr version, and then read the meat of the text without needing to worry about truly screwing up the player's priorities.

The only question is how to construct a good emphasis system. What categories? How is emphasis distributed? Do richer/bigger countries get more "points" or does everyone have to list 1-5 with the consequences that come from that? I dunno quite yet.