NESing by the Numbers

Interesting and useful data EQ. I think a part of the problem is that mods are trying to improve their Prestige and usually a More quality nes is the way to go in, that regard. Of course as we see with numerous examples, it doesn't work out the way we'd like. Also we are an older community. I do not consider my nes dead/limbo but I am on a business trip in Louisiana, not exactly the best place to update. We have others grinding 9-5s, university students, and other busy people where we don't have the time we did in high school
 
Interesting and useful data EQ. I think a part of the problem is that mods are trying to improve their Prestige and usually a More quality nes is the way to go in, that regard. Of course as we see with numerous examples, it doesn't work out the way we'd like. Also we are an older community. I do not consider my nes dead/limbo but I am on a business trip in Louisiana, not exactly the best place to update. We have others grinding 9-5s, university students, and other busy people where we don't have the time we did in high school

Exactly my point. The older members don't have the time to emphasize quality to intense degrees anymore, and attempting to enforce unreasonable quality on others is an enterprise which will only lead to the failure of the community. I work a 9-5, have plenty of errands, parties, and family issues to occupy my time, and I still take 2-3 hours out of my week to do updates for a smaller NES. The problem isn't time, unless you are legitimately working 60+ hours a week, the problem is people's unrealistic expectations of what an NES should be.
 
My conclusion is the following, based on review of the past couple years of NESing: Unreasonably high expectations have been placed upon moderators and NESes in general, putting unneeded strain upon those who would seek to create an NES. Overall, the emphasis on quality over quantity has gone too far in that direction. From what I've seen in the various failed NESes in recent times, a moderator creates a world, very quickly encounters opposition from someone based on nebulous grounds of "realism," and then the moderator either gives up or falters once they succumb to the belief that they have bitten off more than they can chew.

This fails to account for extremely successful, realistic, and detailed NESes like End of Empires, which the community rallies behind. If you can find me an IOT like EoE, I'll blow my brains out on camera.
 
Uninteresting and useless data, actually. You're going to look at one set of four numbers, and suggest to me that this by itself should convince me that your interpretation of the data is correct and that we should merge with IOT and strive to take ourselves less seriously? Sorry, bro, but that is what we call highly suspect. Let's suppose your idea is correct. What we would expect to see, if people aren't starting NESes for fear of criticism, is that people would be proposing ideas or starting pre-NES threads, and then actively abandoning them. We would expect that not only are the number of NESes going down, but the failure rate would increase, owing to the increased "strain" put on moderators. We would expect the number of players in the forum to be constant even as the number of games declined, or at least only decline a little. We would expect the number of updates posted to have declined significantly in this period compared to similar periods in the last few years.

And even if you could prove these were the case, I would probably not be convinced an active push towards quality was a bad thing. I'm always going to encourage new moderators, but you shouldn't disparage people because they prefer a more substantive game than you. I happen to like the complexity of a deep NES; if they were simpler I'd probably just end up playing computer games multiplayer.
 
Uninteresting and useless data, actually. You're going to look at one set of four numbers, and suggest to me that this by itself should convince me that your interpretation of the data is correct and that we should merge with IOT and strive to take ourselves less seriously? Sorry, bro, but that is what we call highly suspect. Let's suppose your idea is correct. What we would expect to see, if people aren't starting NESes for fear of criticism, is that people would be proposing ideas or starting pre-NES threads, and then actively abandoning them. We would expect that not only are the number of NESes going down, but the failure rate would increase, owing to the increased "strain" put on moderators. We would expect the number of players in the forum to be constant even as the number of games declined, or at least only decline a little. We would expect the number of updates posted to have declined significantly in this period compared to similar periods in the last few years.

And even if you could prove these were the case, I would probably not be convinced an active push towards quality was a bad thing. I'm always going to encourage new moderators, but you shouldn't disparage people because they prefer a more substantive game than you. I happen to like the complexity of a deep NES; if they were simpler I'd probably just end up playing computer games multiplayer.

My intent is not to disparage people who like complexity, and your NES is an exception in so very many (good) ways. I've never objected to complexity, my argument is simply that our current focus on deep NESes is discouraging the development of new NESes. The failure rate of NESes HAS increased, depending on definition of failure. If you define failure as a certain amount of updates, in the past year, only a single NES has been started that has managed to pass ten updates. Only three have passed five updates. The number of updates has definitely declined, but I neglected to mention that because of a rise of non-update oriented NESes in the past year which skew the data when it comes to update comparison.

If it hasn't been clear, I'm arguing that the atmosphere of the forum in general does not encourage the creation of even a pre-NES thread. This is after all a theory, and I suspect the psychology is as follows for anyone considering to make an NES:

1. I won't have the ability or time to make an NES as good as _______.

2. I could be spending the time I would be moderating an NES playing a game which models the era better.

My theory is simply that those who would in past times be making (and admittedly still failing at) NESes are choosing instead not to. I believe that this is due to the environment of the forums in general not being an environment conducive to creation. You're right, we could expect to see a large amount of failed "pre-threads," but what if we are past that point already? What if we're already at the point where people just decide not to bother? About a year ago there were a number of pre-threads, and posts relating to NES creation, and fewer NESes made.

I don't blame anyone in particular for the environment that has been created, I'm just presenting what data I've put together as I have for the past two years, and drawn a conclusion. I would enjoy being wrong in this case, and would receive evidence that I am wrong with jubilation.

@Luckymoose: End of Empires is a good NES, I am not going to argue against that. I just don't think that that NES alone will keep the forums alive and thriving. My own belief is that the forums are healthiest when a large number of NESes are popping up, as it displays interest in the game in general. At the moment there are very few NESes popping up. IOT has the same sort of trend ongoing. To use a narcotics metaphor, a simpler game like an IOT would make for a good gateway drug for use of a more sophisticated NES like EoE, maybe not immediately, but a few years down the line.
 
I'm less held back by criticism (although my first and most successful nes ended with a mix of anxiety attack and criticism of one particular player) and more by lackluster players and finicky tech (yeah yeah >.>). By lackluster players, I means whose who put almost the base level to participate, but not enough for me to work with, ignore deadline extensions, and such. It's made worse by the fact I was in a similar seat several times. The difference is that I push through, while only about half of then do, although another quarter claim to be working on it. I don't trust my ability to judge people enough yet to cut off submissions. The only way it seems to demand complete submissions is with a veneer of seriousness, which I feel is highly unfair.

Edit: I will try again come summer. I'll set up a poll and see what's popular.
 
@Luckymoose: End of Empires is a good NES, I am not going to argue against that. I just don't think that that NES alone will keep the forums alive and thriving. My own belief is that the forums are healthiest when a large number of NESes are popping up, as it displays interest in the game in general. At the moment there are very few NESes popping up. IOT has the same sort of trend ongoing. To use a narcotics metaphor, a simpler game like an IOT would make for a good gateway drug for use of a more sophisticated NES like EoE, maybe not immediately, but a few years down the line.

I would argue against the need for cheap thrills. The community is far more active in the chatroom than it ever has been. This is perhaps the reasoning behind a decline in pre-nes threads or ideas posted to the forums. We simply discuss them live. There is no decline in the want for a NES, but a lot of us are finishing college or going into careers and we have to be selective about what NESes we play. Most people prefer playing something long lasting, stable, and deep. It was a driving factor behind player involvement in your main series of NESes, and it drives EoE. People want consistency of quality. EoE, on the other hand, only improves in quality. It is astounding.
 
My intent is not to disparage people who like complexity, and your NES is an exception in so very many (good) ways. I've never objected to complexity, my argument is simply that our current focus on deep NESes is discouraging the development of new NESes. The failure rate of NESes HAS increased, depending on definition of failure. If you define failure as a certain amount of updates, in the past year, only a single NES has been started that has managed to pass ten updates. Only three have passed five updates. The number of updates has definitely declined, but I neglected to mention that because of a rise of non-update oriented NESes in the past year which skew the data when it comes to update comparison.

Please provide hard numbers, in a large enough sample to prove that it's not a statistical fluke. The "#nes cabal", such as it is, did not originate in 2014, and one would presume that a steady decline is more likely than a sharp one. You also haven't been providing rates, you've been providing absolute numbers, and they need to be compared to other years.

If it hasn't been clear, I'm arguing that the atmosphere of the forum in general does not encourage the creation of even a pre-NES thread.

If people are so petrified by criticism that they won't even venture forth those ideas we'd see this influence in a lot of other places.

This is after all a theory,

You transitioned awfully quickly to "AND HERE'S WHAT WE DO," given that your theory is in a very nascent stage.

and I suspect the psychology is as follows for anyone considering to make an NES:

1. I won't have the ability or time to make an NES as good as _______.

2. I could be spending the time I would be moderating an NES playing a game which models the era better.

My theory is simply that those who would in past times be making (and admittedly still failing at) NESes are choosing instead not to. I believe that this is due to the environment of the forums in general not being an environment conducive to creation.

This theory needs actual numbers behind it, not just the interpretation of one bit of data. You also need to release the data-set you're working on; Data 101 (okay, to be fair, more like 103 or so) is that you present the numbers to your audience first and let them draw their own conclusions before suggesting those of your own. Otherwise you're in for a rather long run of confirmation biases.

You're right, we could expect to see a large amount of failed "pre-threads," but what if we are past that point already? What if we're already at the point where people just decide not to bother? About a year ago there were a number of pre-threads, and posts relating to NES creation, and fewer NESes made.

If you're expecting us to take the "theory" seriously you'd better stop using words like "a number of". :p

I don't blame anyone in particular for the environment that has been created, I'm just presenting what data I've put together as I have for the past two years, and drawn a conclusion. I would enjoy being wrong in this case, and would receive evidence that I am wrong with jubilation.

You haven't presented the data. You've presented a couple of numbers.

@Luckymoose: End of Empires is a good NES, I am not going to argue against that. I just don't think that that NES alone will keep the forums alive and thriving. My own belief is that the forums are healthiest when a large number of NESes are popping up, as it displays interest in the game in general. At the moment there are very few NESes popping up. IOT has the same sort of trend ongoing. To use a narcotics metaphor, a simpler game like an IOT would make for a good gateway drug for use of a more sophisticated NES like EoE, maybe not immediately, but a few years down the line.

Honestly, I wish people would stop using my NES as the "baseline" for an NES. I agree that it is the exception and not the rule.
 
EoE is not going to save the forum on its own, and should not be held as proof we are stronger than ever.
 
The data IS released. First page, attachment. Also, I've updated the relevant stats on the front page to be current with the accumulated data. Feel free to browse, there's likely a few errors here and there, but I've endeavored to make sure it's all correct.

The primary assumption behind my statements is that the amount of NESes generated in a year is indicative of the forum's overall health. I won't deny the value of a chatroom and other threads as a means of keeping people with common interests communicating and together. I'm sure it works well for that, though I have been choosing not to include that because I don't really frequent there. I repost the numbers of NESes here for convenience:

2002
# of NESes Begun: 88

2003
# of NESes Begun: 176

2004
# of NESes Begun: 115

2005
# of NESes Begun: 112

2006
# of NESes Begun: 105

2007
# of NESes Begun: 72

2008
# of NESes Begun: 104

2009
# of NESes Begun: 83

2010
# of NESes Begun: 78

2011
# of NESes Begun: 61

2012
# of NESes Begun: 54

2013
# of NESes Begun: 50

2014
# of NESes Begun: 10


As we are almost halfway through the year, it would be reasonable to assume that by this point the number of NESes in 2014 would be around 15-25. 10 is an abnormally low number and based on typical trends of progression, the total number of NESes we could expect by the end of the year would be around 30, 60% of the total of 2013. While numbers of NESes have been dropping ever since 2008, this can probably be attributed towards that emphasis on quality I was referring to. During this time period, more quality oriented NESes were created, rather than ones focused on cheap thrills as luckymoose put it. Even factoring the continuing drop in NES numbers over the past few years, the projected drop of this year is still far greater than anything seen previously.
 
I'm sure Thlayli would too ;)

And considering that the current trend is declining playership, as more players leave EoE the forum will become more barren, and will die if NK leaves. Also even if it goes FOREVER, then the community will be mostly peoplease who like EoE's style.Which is non ideal
 
Also what makes May our cutoff date?
 
Also what makes May our cutoff date?

Because it is may now. Also, originally because NESing somewhat started in May.
 
Myself, I haven't got time to run a NES - although I probably would if I did - or play in more than, say, two; so I have no objection to the NES population being narrowly concentrated into NK's NES and a few smaller ones. I continue to maintain there is nothing stopping anyone from playing IOTs if they want to, and it would do no good whatsoever and is against the wishes of a clear majority - indeed almost a unanimity - of NESers, a debate that we had only a few months ago.

I also think that the number of failed startups (which is what those statistics primarily show) is an altogether insignificant stat. The relevant one is the number of functional NESes going, which has been, well, two to four at most points I have been here. In fact, I'm not even sure it's even a good thing to have lots of stub-NESes in the forum: most of what that achieves is that people waste time they could be putting into better and rewarding NESes on non-starters. I shouldn't like to stifle anyone who wants to start a NES who has but little confidence in their ability to run one, of course - but I myself am reasonably confident that, should I want to start one, I should have as good a chance of it working as it did when I last tried.

So I, for what my opinion is worth, do not find those figures very worrying, and moreover I don't think a merger with IOT is a solution any more than most of us did a few months ago.
 
I'm sure Thlayli would too ;)

And considering that the current trend is declining playership, as more players leave EoE the forum will become more barren, and will die if NK leaves. Also even if it goes FOREVER, then the community will be mostly peoplease who like EoE's style.Which is non ideal

I have no idea what this post is about.


I will take a look at the numbers at some point, EQ, but it would be nice if they were not in Access format.
 
Maybe it isn't the solution, it's really the only thought that occurred to me to increase the dynamism of the forum in general. Frankly, I think it's all psychological. Everyone's either too afraid to start an NES because it be too much for them, or everyone's concerned about joining an NES because it might not last long enough, and by a lack of interest, create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't think NESing is going to die any time soon, in fact, I hope I'm wrong in my own bit of doomsaying. My main concern is that we've become too focused on looks, and not enough on creating games in which to have fun, and a game without fun doesn't really tend to attract new players.
 
I have no idea what this post is about.


I will take a look at the numbers at some point, EQ, but it would be nice if they were not in Access format.

What format would you prefer? Office makes it pretty easy to shift the data between formats.
 
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