SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

Yes, its an attempt get everyone to think more critically about this choice. If you prefer to think of it as a "sound bite" and not quantify how much delaying Taoism spread will affect our win date, then there's nothing I can do beyond quantifying the choices myself.



100-140 Espionage is no more smaller than 100-140 Beakers. We aren't producing Espionage nearly as fast as we are producing Beakers.

Neither are we spending EPs as fast as we are teching. 100 EPs is much larger than 100 beakers if spent on stealing a tech in a favourable position like ours. Something like a factor of three, depending on bonuses and trade potential. 100EPs is worth very little if we have lots and it is not all going to be spent soon.

Because we have 3000E sitting on the Western Witches doesn't make wasting 100-140 Espionage a trivial matter.

I think spending EPs for tangible benefits is fine.

No, I thought the choice between early war and building infrastructure wasn't quite finalized. Yes, I have been reading the thread and the PPP, but I suppose something could have slipped by without my noticing its significance.

Your post was the first I've seen that mentions a commitment of 20-40 turns by the Team to Slavery and Organized Religion.

There is no such stated commitment, but neither is there any commitment to use slavery for any shorter period. See http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11009001&postcount=2147 for a guesstimate of 30-40 turns to get to bulb Scientific Method. I think that's an underbid - and it will be longer the longer we spend in slavery.

Given that Taoism for OR won't get to some cities for 5-15 turns, and we'd want at least two whips in most cities, it doesn't make sense to change out of OR before about 20 turns after we start it. We probably want to whip a university in at least our slowest city after getting Education and before switching out of OR, which is at least 20 turns away. We're going to change out of OR when we switch to Bureaucracy+Caste+Pacifism, and that probably requires stealing CS from an AI, which could happen any time in a 10-40 turn window. We probably want to have stolen Guilds and to have built workshops to justify Caste - again 20+ turns. There's a whole pile of unknowns, but somewhere in the 20-40 turn range is a realistic guess for when we might switch out of slavery.

The next Taoist Missionary will cost 40H (H cost is not extra, since the delay doesn't cost an additional Missionary) and take 2t to whip. Thus the Taoist Missionary chain is delayed by 2t. There is a 3 Taoist Missionary limit that we can't exceed which limits the spread of Taoism via Missionaries.

The missionary limit is a good point. I think it is likely that we can juggle things so that we tend to have 2 missionaries on queues and one moving, or one on a queue and two moving. This is easier when there are two focal points, because we tend to get shorter average travel times. I think Gems and Washington are likely to build only one missionary each, and Stone City will build several. That gets Taoism spread to our critical cities pretty fast, and they're the ones who are getting useful forges whipped soon.

You claim that the Organized Religion will add 15 Hpt Civ-Wide. Spread is delayed by 2t, so we lose 2 x 15H to save 100-140 Espionage.

I think the rate of spread is slower by more than 2 turns per city, because a missionary takes at least 2 turns to travel between relevant cities on our imperfect road network. I estimated about 3-4 turns per spreading in my post, hence 45-60 hammers. Then there's the faster AP, to get faster hammer buffs on any monasteries we build.

I consider 100-140 Espionage more valuable than 30 Hammers, even though they aren't really comparable. The question is which choice gets us an earlier win date? I don't really see 30H having that much effect on our win date and to be honest I have no way to express the value of 100-140 Espionage yet with respect to our win date.

However, I still prefer saving the Espionage points. 30H just isn't persuasive enough.

Earlier forges return earlier forge bonuses (so another 15 hammers for a few turns), returning earlier courthouses, returning more EPs on Southern witches for helping find out what they are doing.

If the game situation allowed it, would you trade all 3000E we have into hammers at 140E:30H ratio? 3000E -> 643H? Would that be a fair trade?

Sun Tzu Wu

I don't accept your ratio, so the point is moot. I might be tempted for 1200:hammers:... That's 14 cats and 14 axes.

What we are "wasting" here are the last 100-140 EPs that we have sitting around our bank, because we will not feel any loss until we have spent all the rest of it. Spending that pile might take 50 turns. In 50 turns' time we might have a half a dozen courthouses, so 100EPs is about 8 turns of passive espionage. Or we could have a quarter of a courthouse right now (using your numbers) or a third to a half of a courthouse right now (using my numbers) to get that courthouse and whatever we build next 10 turns faster - returning 2EPs and 2:commerce: per turn for that 10 turns.

If you told a 21 year old boy he could forego his pay check from his last year of work in return for a brand new luxury car now, it's worth considering. The money is not likely to be of critical value at age 60, but the increased reliability of transport, decreased maintenance on a car and increased status with his peers could be worth a large amount to him at age 21 :)
 
We should not be concerned while our power rating equals the AI Teams. We could even be significantly lower (maybe 80% of theirs) without too much risk.

My post pointed out that there is at least a factor of two in the power graphs between teams. See http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11008505&postcount=2132.

So there is significant risk of them thinking we are weak enough to DOW.

Archers (25H) are only 10H more than Warriors (15H), but now that we have an adequate power rating, I agree that Warriors was the right choice.

We don't have an adequate power rating for dissuasion.



You don't think we have already missed our gold medal chance for SGOTM-14? I'm convinced that at least one top team made a beeline to Iron Working (Domination Win), but maybe not based on the Teams' graphics.

Anything of that nature is pure speculation. I will be surprised if anyone conquers anyone with swords, unless they somehow determined that they could do this and stay competitive in tech until they killed the wizard.

Are you against building a single wall in Isengard?

Did you read the post you quoted where I talked about AIs dying on our recently-built walls and longbows in Isengard?

A good Grand Strategy that is well executed is what usually wins a SGOTM.

An optimal strategy may be brittle. A good strategy is best if it can bend to adequately deal with contingencies.

Sun Tzu Wu

Yes. The chance of jeopardy is unknown and the extent to which we need to react if the jeopardy is real is also unknown. Scouting to find these out and provide a reaction time is the important thing, and we are doing this. Our chances of defending in time with longbows are at least plausible.
 
@Kaitzilla

Have you tried the test game many turns? I wish to know if you experienced any crash. It all depends of you if the test game must be dropped or not. Unfortunately, I did observe a crash, so you are likely to have similar issues.

If it positive, I will provide the test game by end turns (manually saved) to see what was done. I doubt I will have the time in the next 36-48 hours to provide another test game. :sad:
 
The missionary limit is a good point. I think it is likely that we can juggle things so that we tend to have 2 missionaries on queues and one moving, or one on a queue and two moving. This is easier when there are two focal points, because we tend to get shorter average travel times. I think Gems and Washington are likely to build only one missionary each, and Stone City will build several. That gets Taoism spread to our critical cities pretty fast, and they're the ones who are getting useful forges whipped soon.

I think the rate of spread is slower by more than 2 turns per city, because a missionary takes at least 2 turns to travel between relevant cities on our imperfect road network. I estimated about 3-4 turns per spreading in my post, hence 45-60 hammers. Then there's the faster AP, to get faster hammer buffs on any monasteries we build.

It's not the rate of spread that is important, because that will not change whether one has 1 or 2 cities that can whip missionaries on the starting turn. What is important is the delay of the 2nd city to being able to whip missionaries. That is 2t, given an appropriate 2nd city target. Notice that the delay applies to only the 2nd city and a maximum of only 3 missionaries can be in the process of being built + existing prior to conversion of a city.

Earlier forges return earlier forge bonuses (so another 15 hammers for a few turns), returning earlier courthouses, returning more EPs on Southern witches for helping find out what they are doing.

Probably one forge will be delayed 2t. That's probably worth 2 x 10H x 0.25 = 5H. Is that really worth considering?

If you told a 21 year old boy he could forego his pay check from his last year of work in return for a brand new luxury car now, it's worth considering. The money is not likely to be of critical value at age 60, but the increased reliability of transport, decreased maintenance on a car and increased status with his peers could be worth a large amount to him at age 21 :)

Your analogy is totally wrong; the benefit and cost you state above have _no_ possible comparabilities with game elements in BtS. In the USA, we don't call 21 year olds "boy", unless they are in the military.

I stand by my previous statements that the delay is 2t and the cost is 2 x 15H.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Well, we are finally getting the debate Tachywaxon wanted :).

I would love to perform my turnset in 24 hours, but it has only been 48 hours since the last turnset ended and I am too tired to make a 2nd draft PPP incorporating all the latest changes.

I too feel the uncertainty of possibly delaying war with East Witches too long. Therefore I will plan on playing in 44 hours instead, leaving tommorow for everyone to refine their arguments and opinions while I fine tune PPP.

Okay sounds good.

I finally found the time to play the test game, and I'll have more to say.

quick summary
I think workers might want to prioritize roads rather than some calendar resources like incense or the silk near the capital.
With a few key roads we can cut the travel time down of at least a few missionaries.

I think a worker in isengard first after the revolt might make good sense. Then depending on our spreading plan for taoism Isengard might be able to save the overflow from the worker whip building currency and build a lighthouse once taoism spreads there.

A similar startegy might be used with GPFarm with the overflow from the settler whip. So save the OF a turn or 2 and get the OR bonus on the OF when taoism spreads there.
 
@Tachywaxon

Ya, my test game crashed about T124. I don't know why. I have very good computer :(

That is mighty annoying, but what can we do? :badcomp::dunno:
Even if I had time, I wonder if updating once again from my computer will bring similar problems.
Unless we know somebody who can repair the save. That is unlikely...
Anyways, I guess I have no choice to upload the saves turn by turn and try to lead a bit the next test game updater :scan: (later of course as I don't have the save on this computer).
 
It's not the rate of spread that is important, because that will not change whether one has 1 or 2 cities that can whip missionaries on the starting turn. What is important is the delay of the 2nd city to being able to whip missionaries. That is 2t, given an appropriate 2nd city target. Notice that the delay applies to only the 2nd city and a maximum of only 3 missionaries can be in the process of being built + existing prior to conversion of a city.

Single focus for spreading from Stone City, given that Washington and Gems are too busy to build more than one missionary:
T1 Start missionary 1
T2 Whip missionary 1
T3 Start missionary 2, move missionary 1 towards Washington
T4 Whip missionary 2, spread with missionary 1 in Washington, start missionary 3 in Washington
T5 Move missionary 2 towards Gems, whip missionary 3 in Washington, start missionary 4 in Stone City
T6 Move missionaries 2 and 3 towards Gems and GPfarm, whip missionary 4 in Stone City
T7 Spread with missionaries 2 and 3, move missionary 4 to Silver, start missionary 5 in Stone City and missionary 6 in Gems
T8 Spread in Silver, probably finish missionary 5 from overflow and tiles without needing to whip, whip missionary 6
T9 Move missionary 6 to Isengard and 5 to somewhere else
T10 Move missionaries 5 and 6
T11 Spread in Isengard and somewhere else

So spreads occurred on turns 4, 7, 7, 8, 11 and 11 for five whips.

Two foci in Stone and Gems city, again given that Washington and Gems are too busy to build more than one missionary:
T1 Start missionaries 1 and 2
T2 Whip missionaries 1 and 2
T3 Move missionaries 1 and 2 towards Isengard and Washington, start missionary 3 in Stone City
T4 Spread in Washington, move missionary 1 towards Isengard, whip missionary 3, start missionary 4 in Washington
T5 Spread in Isengard, move missionary 3 towards GPfarm, whip missionary 4, start missionary 5 in Stone City
T6 Move missionary 3 towards GPfarm and 4 towards Trojan Horse, whip missionary 5
T7 Spread in GPfarm and TH, move 5 towards Silver, start missionary 6 in Stone City
T8 Spread in Silver, probably finish missionary 6 from overflow and tiles without needing to whip
T9 Move missionary 6 somewhere else
T10 Move missionary 6
T11 Spread somewhere else

Spreads occurred on turns 4, 5, 7, 7, 8, 11 for five whips.

That's respectively 0, 2, 0, 1, 3 and 0 turns faster with two foci - a total of six turns faster for the first six spreads. That's an unimpressive number of hammers gained for earlier OR spreads - something like 20 hammers. There's probably a further advantage of comparable size for earlier forges or courthouses in the relevant cities. The AP in Gems probably got started and finished a few turns sooner for some benefit of unknown size.

Your analogy is totally wrong; the benefit and cost you state above have _no_ possible comparabilities with game elements in BtS. In the USA, we don't call 21 year olds "boy", unless they are in the military.

I stand by my previous statements that the delay is 2t and the cost is 2 x 15H.

Sun Tzu Wu

I really don't care whether the US calls 21-year-olds boys or not. That's a complete irrelevancy, even if we were to accept that standard usage in the US should always apply. My analogy illustrates the value of accepting something of value that is useful now rather than something that is probably of higher value later that is relatively less useful at the time.

I notice that you've not commented on the game observation that prompted the analogy. I'll state it again so that you can comment on it:

What we are "wasting" here are the last 100-140 EPs that we have sitting around our bank, because we will not feel any loss until we have spent all the rest of it. Spending that pile might take 50 turns. In 50 turns' time we might have a half a dozen courthouses, so 100EPs is about 8 turns of passive espionage. Or we could have a quarter of a courthouse right now (using your numbers) or a third to a half of a courthouse right now (using my numbers) to get that courthouse and whatever we build next 10 turns faster - returning 2EPs and 2 per turn for that 10 turns.

Stuff spent now for a useful return is better than stuff saved for possible use in about 50 turns' time. We have another GSpy to infiltrate, further delaying the time when a previously spent 100 EPs actually has an effect.
 
Okay sounds good.

I finally found the time to play the test game, and I'll have more to say.

quick summary
I think workers might want to prioritize roads rather than some calendar resources like incense or the silk near the capital.
With a few key roads we can cut the travel time down of at least a few missionaries.

I think a worker in isengard first after the revolt might make good sense. Then depending on our spreading plan for taoism Isengard might be able to save the overflow from the worker whip building currency and build a lighthouse once taoism spreads there.

A similar startegy might be used with GPFarm with the overflow from the settler whip. So save the OF a turn or 2 and get the OR bonus on the OF when taoism spreads there.

Yeah sounds good.
 
One thing to consider when we are talking about lost espionage points and how they compare to hammers/beakers is that to there is a cost in hammers and other intangibles to use the EP. The hammer costs are associated with building spies and missionaries,and intangibles are diplo penalties and the repercussions associated with how the AI will act toward us for running a "heathen" state religion.

I think that we need to get Taoism into Boston. The 40% discount will be integral in getting a tech stolen from them and/or for preserving enough EP points to see their research.

EDIT: I am not suggesting that our free missionary got to Boston. I am suggesting that we don't steal a tech until we spread taoism there.
 
One thing to consider when we are talking about lost espionage points and how they compare to hammers/beakers is that to there is a cost in hammers and other intangibles to use the EP. The hammer costs are associated with building spies and missionaries,and intangibles are diplo penalties and the repercussions associated with how the AI will act toward us for running a "heathen" state religion.

I think that we need to get Taoism into Boston. The 40% discount will be integral in getting a tech stolen from them and/or for preserving enough EP points to see their research.

I'm all for getting Taoism into Trojan Horse city and Boston eventually.

Right now I think spreading taoism into gems is the right decision for us, so that we can spread the religion faster. We will get taoism into Trojan Horse after the theocracy steal but before we steal another tech. We will get taoism into Boston before we steal a tech there as well.

I am convinced by mabraham's arguments in favor of spending ~140 espionage for faster spread of the religion. I think the situation is even better than he lays out since we can preserve OF from whips and get the OR bonus on all of those OF hammers if we aggressively spread the religion. I think I can improve his spreading times if we commit workers to roads instead of calendar resources that we don't need immediately.
 
Can someone clarify for me? I have seen discussion about forts associated with our current ppp and some that seemed to have been in the process of building going back to our last turnset.

I got the impression that forts were being put on resources instead of plantations. I understand a strategic value of doing this to make a canal. I got the impression that forts were started where there would not be a canal. Is this correct? Isn't this a waste? I thought forts took several more worker turns than plantations. Anyone please clarify if possible.
 
A fort was started on silk near GPFarm before we knew calendar. So while it does take longer to build a fort than a plantation, the fort was started earlier than we could start a plantation. The fort has a marginal usefulness as a canal as well. The plan for GPFarm also wouldn't work the silk most likely. However, in retrospect we did get calendar earlier than we expected so a plantation was probably the right call at that point. The current situation is we have 6? turns left on a fort and a plantation would take 5 turns, so we might as well finish the fort.

Now that I think about it, GPFarm will want to work the silk rather than coast during our time in slavery, so maybe we should just put in a plantation there.

I don't think there were any other significant turns put into a fort anywhere else.
 
Slight tweaks of the test game

fixed number of turns on the fort SW of GPFarm (2 turns left on fort) -- so I was wrong earlier might as well finish the fort. (by adding a worker then deleting him)

put 1 turn of plantation on incense (by adding a worker then deleting him)

Moved Ramanujan and Yamasaki to the correct tiles

Removed floodplain-plains tile near Stone City
 

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Slight tweaks of the test game

fixed number of turns on the fort SW of GPFarm (2 turns left on fort) -- so I was wrong earlier might as well finish the fort. (by adding a worker then deleting him)

put 1 turn of plantation on incense (by adding a worker then deleting him)

Moved Ramanujan and Yamasaki to the correct tiles

Removed floodplain-plains tile near Stone City

Right, I was sure at some point I would mistaken and swap two workers. I forgot to verify it.
Ah yes, floodplains is a feature, not a terrain type.
Good eyes, bcool.

Anyways, it "seems" Kaitzilla isn't asking right away a new test game. The moment the test game becomes intolerable, I will liberate information how to remake it.

Sorry for these off-topic posts, too busy for the next days, but I still wish to keep an eye on the test game in case something goes really wrong.

Happy Halloween...for those who celebrates it (not including me :lol:).
 
Stuff spent now for a useful return is better than stuff saved for possible use in about 50 turns' time. We have another GSpy to infiltrate, further delaying the time when a previously spent 100 EPs actually has an effect.

Yes, I must admit that 100-140 Espionage is practically worthless, because we have 3000 Espionage on the Western Witches and we can't be sure we we ever get a useful return on much of it, especially assuming the Western Witches become too slow to help us tech to Mass Media.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
We will complete the following Technologies in our "lazy" beeline to Mass Media. I'm using the term "lazy" in the sense that we may acquire Technologies off a strict beeline to Mass Media; such Technologies (may) include Music, Monarchy, Feudalism, Guilds, Gunpowder, Chemistry, Education, Liberalism, and Communism.

The Technologies below will be acquired via Researching (Res), Trading (Tra), Stealing (Ste), Bulbing via Great Scientists (Bul) and Liberalism (Lib).

Music (Res) -> Metal Casting (Tra) -> Machinery (Res/Ste) ->

Optional: Monarchy (Tra) -> Feudalism (Tra/Ste) -> Guilds (Ste) -> Gunpowder (Ste/Res) -> Chemistry (Ste/Bul) -> Steel (Ste)

Compass (Res/Ste/Bul) -> Optics (Res/Bul) -> Astronomy (Bul)

Theology (Ste) -> Paper (Ste/Bul) ->

Optional: Education (Bul)

Printing Press (Res/Ste/Bul) -> Scientific Method (Bul) ->

Optional: Communism (Res)

Physics (Res/Bul) -> Electricity (Res/Bul) -> Radio (Lib) -> Mass Media (Res)

====

We probably will never be able to acquire all optional Technologies, nor should we expect to do so. For example, acquiring Chemistry and Steel via Stealing is very unlikely; we might steal Chemistry too late to matter much and we may not be able to steal Steel before we win.

The Tech order is generally top to bottom with the exception of the optional technologies which are generally acquired as the opportunity for doing so arises. Education is the exception, since Universities and Oxford University add an immense amount of research, such that a beeline to Education is more than justifiable.

Near-Term Research path is likely to be Music -> Paper -> Education, though that will not allow enough time to bulb Paper or even bulb all of Education. We are likely to have just one Great Scientist ready to bulb the latter ~60% of Education.

Hopefully this post will be helpful in planning our technology route to Mass Media and can be reposted in the future as turn sets are applied.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
We will complete the following Technologies in our "lazy" beeline to Mass Media. I'm using the term "lazy" in the sense that we may acquire Technologies off a strict beeline to Mass Media; such Technologies (may) include Music, Monarchy, Feudalism, Guilds, Gunpowder, Chemistry, Education, Liberalism, and Communism.

The Technologies below will be acquired via Researching (Res), Trading (Tra), Stealing (Ste), Bulbing via Great Scientists (Bul) and Liberalism (Lib).

Music (Res) -> Metal Casting (Tra) -> Machinery (Res/Ste) ->

Optional: Monarchy (Tra) -> Feudalism (Tra/Ste) -> Guilds (Ste) -> Gunpowder (Ste/Res) -> Chemistry (Ste/Bul) -> Steel (Ste)

Compass (Res/Ste/Bul) -> Optics (Res/Bul) -> Astronomy (Bul)

Theology (Ste) -> Paper (Ste/Bul) ->

Optional: Education (Bul)

Printing Press (Res/Ste/Bul) -> Scientific Method (Bul) ->

Optional: Communism (Res)

Physics (Res/Bul) -> Electricity (Res/Bul) -> Radio (Lib) -> Mass Media (Res)

====

We probably will never be able to acquire all optional Technologies, nor should we expect to do so. For example, acquiring Chemistry and Steel via Stealing is very unlikely; we might steal Chemistry too late to matter much and we may not be able to steal Steel before we win.

The Tech order is generally top to bottom with the exception of the optional technologies which are generally acquired as the opportunity for doing so arises. Education is the exception, since Universities and Oxford University add an immense amount of research, such that a beeline to Education is more than justifiable.

Near-Term Research path is likely to be Music -> Paper -> Education, though that will not allow enough time to bulb Paper or even bulb all of Education. We are likely to have just one Great Scientist ready to bulb the latter ~60% of Education.

Hopefully this post will be helpful in planning our technology route to Mass Media and can be reposted in the future as turn sets are applied.

Sun Tzu Wu

Thanks for this. We do need to play a reactive game - the AIs tech choices will dictate what we can steal and trade and that will dictate what we can bulb when. In the short term, I think there is/will be widespread agreement on teching Music->Paper->Edu, bulbing the last 60% of Edu, preferably after growing up the population in preparation for whips of universities and more bulb beakers.

If we were to steal or trade for CS before we finish Compass-Optics-Astro (for which we need Machinery) then we will have to finish PPr before we can go back to the Astro path. We do need PPr for SciMeth. We will not generate many GScientists before we switch to Caste+Paci.

A) CS is available around the time Edu finishes, steal that, switch to Bureaucracy, and soon after to Paci+Caste once we're done whipping. Our next bulb is most of PPr (which buffs the capital), then we look around for what to do along the Astro track, hopefully trading for Compass at the time.

B) Machinery and/or Compass is available around the time Edu finishes, get those, switch to Paci+Caste once we're done whipping, bulb Optics, bulb Astro, finish Astro, and expect to be acquiring CS around then

C) CS and Mach are available, probably follow plan A for faster Bureaucracy. Astro would be nice for galleons to get faster religion spreads, however.

Along the way, we steal Feudalism and get a bunch of longbows, and maybe trade for HBR for some War Elephants. Steal Guilds when available.

IIRC we may want to avoid getting both Gunpowder and Engineering because that can open awkward bulbs of Chemistry. Chemistry is nice for our workshops, but detracts from our MM time.
 
Thanks for the guide Sun Tzu :goodjob:

I have finished the 2nd round PPP Post #2138. This one is much tighter than the first, and incorporates all the suggestions I've heard that convinced me is best.

Let me pre-emptively say that I only want a marketplace in the capital because it is full of cottages. I forsee us at 0% science to build up gold while cranking out university/oxford, and bureaucracy will make it very nice eventually.



Hopefully we can avoid war and my successor will be able to whip out forges and courthouses along with all the other buildings we desire. I'm sure the workers will be able to start some workshops eventually.


I can't get the Test Game past T124. I'm not sure what we will do if we can't figure out how to fix it. Test Game's are great for juggling micro.

I noticed the event logger showing an error when Elizabeth demanded something. I'll post a screenshot in this post shortly.

Spoiler :
 
If our scouts do spot a stack from South capable of threatening Isengard heading east during Kait's turn set, I think we should authorize him to watch it carefully to see who the target might be, and start to prepare suitable defence:
  • See if we can bribe West or North to attack South.
  • Put walls on the queue in Isengard, and consider whether we can get 40% culture defence fast enough to matter.
  • Steal Feudalism ASAP.
  • Start to build longbows/axes/spears/archers according to the units in the stack.
  • Don't start archers if Feudalism can be stolen soon.

Queuing up one turn on each plausible unit in our production cities and then doing successive turns of whips is probably a good idea. We delay having to spend money on unit maintenance, and will have the option of not finishing the builds if we learn we are not actually the target. For example, a stack from Mansa moving east along the southern edge of the hub will cross a diagonal line at some point that would indicate that the target is not Isengard.
 
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