http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5323376
Basically, the Dalai Lama is 70 years old. It is very possible he will die soon. The key issues:
- In China, Tibetans are increasingly being assimilated into the Han Chinese culture. They cite for example a 12 year old girl whose mother sent her to India who can speak no Tibetan but fluent Chinese.
- Also with the new railroad, it is likely that Tibetans, already minorities in the city regions will be swamped by Han Chinese.
- In India, the education Tibetan youths get in their culture and language is extremely poor so they are getting increasingly assimilated into Indian culture. Many young Tibetans are getting increasingly less enthusiastic about going back to Tibet anyway.
The Dalai Lama, while not admitting to this, does admit that *one* (I stress one, as many still make the trip for religious reasons or to maintain their culture) of the reasons why young Tibetans might be making the trip to India is because they think it's easier to get to the US that way.
- The Dalai Lama's rule and the absolute loyalty Tibetans feel for him personally (I don't mean in terms of crude power, but rather his charismatic personality) means that many political divisions amongst Tibetans in exile are being papered over. It is extremely doubtful that any successor will be able to command the same sort of loyalty and mass acceptance as the current Dalai Lama. In my opinion, this is assuming that the exiled Tibetans can even agree on a successor. Economist cites the example of the 17th Karmapa where they are multiple claimants amongst exiled Tibetans for the title. Also China may try to impose their own Dalai Lama as they control both Panchen Lama who is traditionally the senior cleric most involved in identifying the next Dalai Lama. In short, the death of the current Dalai Lama could split the Tibetan opposition groups asunder.
- Another problem with the Dalai Lama's death is that exiled Tibetans rely too much on the Dalai Lama and have not learnt how to rely on themselves.
- Another factor that is touched upon is, with China's increasing power, fewer countries are willing to help Tibetans. Nepal is trying to shut down the transit routes used by Tibetans to travel to India. India has essentially put the Karmapa who fled from Tibet under house arrest for fear of antagonising China.
Of course, all is not rosy for China with the Dalai Lama's death. There are factions amongst Tibetan exiles who want to use violence against the Chinese (read, 'terrorism') and have only been kept in check by their respect for the Dalai Lama. With his death, all bets are off and it is likely that China will have Tibetan terrorists attacking it.
However, in my opinion, this may not necessarily be good for Tibetans either. With the war on terror in America it will be very difficult for America or other Western countries to support the Tibetans without looking like rank hypocrites, esp. if the Tibetans appear to be religiously inspired as well. See the fuss that was made when a man accused of terrorist activities in Cuba saught asylum in the US. They may also lose their celebrity backers. It's one thing for the New Age guys to support peace-loving new age Buddhist harmony and peaceful struggle. It's another thing for Richard Gere to support blowing up Chinese civilians. It will probably give an excuse for China to crack down heavily on any Tibetan dissidents (whether violent or not) and give it the lleverage to demand that India do something about the exiled groups in its terroritory - India has a terrorist problem too involving a disputed territory so if it refuses iit will appear to be a hypocrite. Hell, India might be *happy* to crack down on the Tibetans given an excuse. What use are they to India? Good relations with China might be seen to be more beneficial to their country.
Basically, the Dalai Lama is 70 years old. It is very possible he will die soon. The key issues:
- In China, Tibetans are increasingly being assimilated into the Han Chinese culture. They cite for example a 12 year old girl whose mother sent her to India who can speak no Tibetan but fluent Chinese.
- Also with the new railroad, it is likely that Tibetans, already minorities in the city regions will be swamped by Han Chinese.
- In India, the education Tibetan youths get in their culture and language is extremely poor so they are getting increasingly assimilated into Indian culture. Many young Tibetans are getting increasingly less enthusiastic about going back to Tibet anyway.
The Dalai Lama, while not admitting to this, does admit that *one* (I stress one, as many still make the trip for religious reasons or to maintain their culture) of the reasons why young Tibetans might be making the trip to India is because they think it's easier to get to the US that way.
- The Dalai Lama's rule and the absolute loyalty Tibetans feel for him personally (I don't mean in terms of crude power, but rather his charismatic personality) means that many political divisions amongst Tibetans in exile are being papered over. It is extremely doubtful that any successor will be able to command the same sort of loyalty and mass acceptance as the current Dalai Lama. In my opinion, this is assuming that the exiled Tibetans can even agree on a successor. Economist cites the example of the 17th Karmapa where they are multiple claimants amongst exiled Tibetans for the title. Also China may try to impose their own Dalai Lama as they control both Panchen Lama who is traditionally the senior cleric most involved in identifying the next Dalai Lama. In short, the death of the current Dalai Lama could split the Tibetan opposition groups asunder.
- Another problem with the Dalai Lama's death is that exiled Tibetans rely too much on the Dalai Lama and have not learnt how to rely on themselves.
- Another factor that is touched upon is, with China's increasing power, fewer countries are willing to help Tibetans. Nepal is trying to shut down the transit routes used by Tibetans to travel to India. India has essentially put the Karmapa who fled from Tibet under house arrest for fear of antagonising China.
Of course, all is not rosy for China with the Dalai Lama's death. There are factions amongst Tibetan exiles who want to use violence against the Chinese (read, 'terrorism') and have only been kept in check by their respect for the Dalai Lama. With his death, all bets are off and it is likely that China will have Tibetan terrorists attacking it.
However, in my opinion, this may not necessarily be good for Tibetans either. With the war on terror in America it will be very difficult for America or other Western countries to support the Tibetans without looking like rank hypocrites, esp. if the Tibetans appear to be religiously inspired as well. See the fuss that was made when a man accused of terrorist activities in Cuba saught asylum in the US. They may also lose their celebrity backers. It's one thing for the New Age guys to support peace-loving new age Buddhist harmony and peaceful struggle. It's another thing for Richard Gere to support blowing up Chinese civilians. It will probably give an excuse for China to crack down heavily on any Tibetan dissidents (whether violent or not) and give it the lleverage to demand that India do something about the exiled groups in its terroritory - India has a terrorist problem too involving a disputed territory so if it refuses iit will appear to be a hypocrite. Hell, India might be *happy* to crack down on the Tibetans given an excuse. What use are they to India? Good relations with China might be seen to be more beneficial to their country.
I wanted to say something of that kind myself 
