Demographics

Just checking in - all looks good.

DMOC - notice you have some hawt spreadsheet action there!

Is there any way to easily host one of these somewhere that we could replace each turn and keep up to date?
 
Alright, I sat down and had a look at the numbers, without reading what the rest of you have come up with so far. That way it's easier to catch a mistake, which otherwise might be overlooked. Here's what I came up with:

Crop Yield:
Here we have perfect knowledge obviously, since the "best" value increased after each settled city.

Sirius: 2 (from CC only)
Quatronia: 4 (CC plus a 2F tile)
CDZ: 5 (CC plus a 3F tile)

The only question mark is whether Quatronia and/or CDZ settled on top of a food resource. I will assume not.


MFG:
This is a lot less accurate since Sirius blanks out the others. But we actually have more knowledge than we could hope for. After CDZ settled, the "average" increased to 2, which means that the total MFG of those three teams must be >= 10. Since Sirius has 5, it means Quatronia and CDZ has (at least) 5 between them, like a 2 and a 3. Most likely that means Quatronia has 3 and CDZ 2, to mirror their differing CY values. EDIT: After reading DMOC's calculations, I can't believe I missed that we're 4th in MFG! That indeed means both Quatronia and CDZ have 2 as minimum. I updated below.

Sirius: 5
Quatronia: 3 [2-4, but >= 5-CDZ]
CDZ: 2 [2-5, but >= 5-Quatronia]


GNP:
This one is really interesting, since again we luckily have perfect knowledge. Sirius obviously has 18. When Quatronia settled, the average went up to 7, meaning Sirius + Quatronia >= 35. That means Quatronia must have 17 or 18. When CDZ settled, we know they have 19, but the average went up to 11. That means CDZ + Sirius + Quatronia >= 55, hence the only possible value for Quatronia is 18.

What is even more interesting is what this says about Quatronia and CDZ - they must both be researching 2nd tier techs to get values that high.

Sirius: 18 (4 ep, 4 culture (CRE) => 10 for research: 8 palace, 1 CC, 1 free)
Quatronia: 18 (4 ep, 2 culture => 12 for research: 8 palace, 1 CC, 1 free = 10, 10*1.2 = 12)
CDZ: 19 (4 ep, 2 culture => 13 for research: 8 palace, 1 CC, 1 free, 1 from tile = 11, 11*1.2 = 13)


Soldiers:
This is uninteresting since we had perfect knowledge even before the game started. We know what techs and units the other teams have already.


Land Area:
Here the averages are accurate enough to give perfect knowledge. Sirius has 7k (avg 1.4k), Quatronia has 7k (avg 2.8k), CDZ has 6k (avg 4k). So all teams have a coastal start (or lakes, but that's less likely), and CDZ has three coastal tiles in their inner FC.


Population:
Doh. :p


Approval Rate:
The "typical" value would be 83% after settling, since 5/6 = 0.83. Sirius hits that value, hence we know they didn't settle on a happy resource. Quatronia are CHA so get +1 happy, hence should be 6/7 = 85%. Check. CDZ could be either, the average isn't accurate enough to tell. Chances are fairly low that they got a plains hill gold and settled on it though... :crazyeye:


Life Expectancy:
This is a far more interesting value than AR. Our own value is 85 - we have 2 free, +2 from river and +0.5*4 = 2 from forests. Hence 6/7 = 0.85. Sirius has the same - either they too have 4 (or 5) forests in their BFC, or they settled on a farm resource... on top of a plains hill? Nah... or they didn't have fresh water and instead have 8-9 forests. Not likely either. So 4-5 forests it is. Quatronia must also have 85, since the average went up to 34 and not 33. Same story there, 4-5 forests. It's also exactly the same for CDZ, 85 total.

The only potential caveat here is that there is a different possible scenario. CDZ has 5 CY, so could potentially have settled on a Rice (or other farm resource) and are working a 2F1P1C tile instead of the guessed 3F1C. Actually Quatronia could have done the same, settled on a Rice and are working a 1F2P tile instead of the guessed 2F1P. In that case those teams would only have 2-3 forests in their BFC. But given the expected similarities of our starts otherwise, I find the likelihood of these scenarios to be rather minimal.

Hmm, there is of course also the possibility of jungles and/or flood plains in the BFC. Jungles add +0.5 unhealth, flood plains +0.4. You do the maths, a lot of different possible scenarios here. But I'll take the simple route and posit that they all have 4 (or 5) forests, like us. So...


Summary:

Sirius:
- Has a 2F 2P 1C city center, likely a plains hill.
- Is working a 3P tile.
- Is researching a 1st tier tech.
- Has 7 land tiles and 2 water tiles in their inner 9.
- Settled next to fresh water and have 4-5 forests in their BFC.

Quatronia:
- Has a 2F 2P 1C city center, likely a plains hill.
- Is working a 2F 1P tile.
- Is researching a 2nd tier tech.
- Has 7 land tiles and 2 water tiles in their inner 9.
- Settled next to fresh water and have 4-5 forests in their BFC.

CDZ:
- Has a 2F 2P 1C city center, likely a plains hill.
- Is working a 3F 1C tile.
- Is researching a 2nd tier tech.
- Has 6 land tiles and 3 water tiles in their inner 9
- Settled next to fresh water and have 4-5 forests in their BFC.

Noticeable is that all teams seem to have started on a coastal plains hill next to fresh water and forests. It smells engineered. ;)
 
Interesting... everyones settled on T1.

Everyone has some coast in their BFC.

I have to go to work before I can think more on this!
 
I logged in and played around with our tile assignments a bit, too bad I didn't get the chance earlier (or thought to ask anyone else). At any rate, here's the results:

MFG: 2 = 6th, 3 = 5th, 4 = 3rd

CY: 5 = 2nd, 4 = 4th, 3 = 5th

Since we are last in player order, we become last in ties. In other words there is only 1 team with MFG 2, two teams with MFG 3, and two teams with MFG 4 or 5. There is only one other team with CY 5, two teams with CY 4, one with CY 3 and only one with CY 2.

From bbp's new demo shots we find that Amazon and Merlot likely have 5 MFG and 5 CY between them, which is also consistent with my finds. This means one of them is working a 1F 2P tile, and the other a 2F 1P tile. Both of them have settled a plains hill for 2F 2P 1C. Sadly we cannot know who of them did what.

In GNP our streak of good luck continues, as we get perfect knowledge even here. Amazon bumps the "best" value to 20 so that's clearly their value. Merlot must be the team with 16, the new "worst" value after they've played.

Merlot: 16 (4 ep, 2 culture => 10 for research: 8 palace, 1 free, 1 city center)
Amazon: 20 (4 ep, 2 culture => 14 for research: 8 palace, 1 free, 1 city center = 10, 10*1.4 = 14)

Merlot are researching a 1st tier tech. Amazon play Cyrus and start with Hunting and Agri. Thus they are researching Animal Husbandry, the only tech that would give them a 1.4 modifier. Immortal rush seems more and more likely, but we're on to them. :cool:

Amazon bumped the AR average to 67 as expected with their CHA leader, they have 85. Since the average stays at 83 after Merlot, that means both Merlot and CDZ have 83, as expected.

All teams have LE 85 except Merlot who has 88. That's 8 health, 7 would be 87. Either they have a ton of forests (8-9), or they settled on a health resource (and 6-7 forests). The former seems more likely, but it is possible that Merlot got a start like ours, settled on a Rice, and are working a 1F 2P tile (if they are the team with CY 4) or a 3P tile (if they have CY 3). EDIT: Errr, no. They are playing Pacal who is EXP, which explains the +2 health. Move along, nothing to see here. :blush:

Noticeable is that only one other team is working a 3F 1C tile, CDZ. This means that either the other teams don't have any to work, or they don't start building workers. We'll know if we see them grow in a few turns. I can see Sirius (Willem) and Quatronia (Hannibal) start building Workboats since they start with Fishing - but Amazon (Cyrus: Hunting/Agri) and Merlot (Pacal: Myst/Mining)? I would be very surprised if they didn't both start by building worker, and hence likely don't have a 3-yield tile with +1C in their inner 8.
 
they are researching Animal Husbandry

Well, this isn't exactly news to us, but at least now it's official :p

Perhaps it would not be too pre-mature to skip the Yellow Alert, and jump to the Red Alert in the War-Room?
 
The question is, if everyone's been engineered to start on a plains hill, can we take it as given that everyone's start is engineered to have either gems or gold in their BFC?
 
Be interesting to see how balanced it all is. Given we all seem to have settled on a plains hill, I'd 3/4 expect to see a pair of health/food and a pair of happy resources at the other starts as well. Wonder if they'd have the same as ours or different ones?

If they're different is it too late to ask for a reroll to double FP Corn and double Gold? :)
 
SIRIUS
Start with Agriculture and Fishing. Likely tech: Mining? We should see a 2000 soldier hike in how many turns? Should probably run some tests on research speed given GNP outputs for each team?

QUATRONIA
Start with Fishing and Mining. Second-tier tech doesn't make much sense... BW?
Their GNP could be 17 instead, from what I can see. That might mean: 4 EP + 2 Culture + 8 Palace + 1 CC + 1 free + 1 tile, while researching a first-tier tech. That would mean a 2f1h1c tile. Maybe a river wheat, with tech on Agri, or something?

CDZ
Start with Fishing and Hunting. Researching second-tier tech - have to think AH.

AMAZON
AH, as Niklas showed.

MERLOT
Start with Mining and Mysticism. First-tier tech means food over religion.

Question: Can you not only select research on the next turn? Would that mean this GNP data is potentially imperfect as of right now?
 
QUATRONIA
Start with Fishing and Mining. Second-tier tech doesn't make much sense... BW?
Their GNP could be 17 instead, from what I can see.
No, their GNP has to be 18. After CDZ settled, the average was 11, meaning (at least) 55 between the three teams who had settled at that point. CDZ had 19 and Sirius 18, leaving 18 as the only possible value for Quatronia.

I doubt any team would have not chosen their tech yet - but I suppose technically it's possible.
 
No, their GNP has to be 18. After CDZ settled, the average was 11, meaning (at least) 55 between the three teams who had settled at that point. CDZ had 19 and Sirius 18, leaving 18 as the only possible value for Quatronia.
Is that how it's calculated? I thought it would be: 19+18+?+1+1 >= 55. That would work with 17, or even 16.
 
:eek2: I didn't even notice until now that the other teams had a 1 to start with. Stupid stupid stupid. That means my calculations are definitely off for Quatronia, they could have anything between 16 and 18 then. And Merlot may not be the team with 16 after all. Will have to recheck the numbers later. Good catch. :thumbsup:
 
Actually, checking the numbers after Amazon settled, the average is 15 meaning 75 total. 75-20-19-18-1=17, so 16 is not possible for Quatronia, meaning Merlot is that team after all. The numbers all allow both 17 and 18 as possible value for Quatronia though, just like bbp points out. If 17, that would mean they work a tile with 1C and are researching a 1st tier tech, again just like bbp points out.
 
We know that Quatronia has a minimum of 17:
We're in 5th place in the Amazon screen, and they'd have to have it as: 75 - (20+19+18+1) = 17.
We also know that Q+Merlot have a minimum of 33 together from the last screen, and that Merlot must be the 16 team. Leaves Q with either 17 or 18.

Edit: x-post
 
I logged in to the game to check. At 18 GNP we are 4th, so two teams are worse than that. Quatronia must thus have 17. (This all assumes that my understanding of the sorting is correct. Maybe I should double-check that...)
 
Top Bottom