2006 College Football Offseason thread

It's time too get some good 'ole college football talk going (non-draft related of course!). So let's talk some recruiting and speculate about the season ahead. To get things going here are some points of discussion we can start with:

A. Which major program most needs a BCS championship this upcoming year?
B. Who are you top 5 teams going into next year and why?
C. Which program is going to surprise everyone and make it too the BCS ala Penn State this year and Utah and Auburn the previous year?

My answers for the questions:
A. scUM, year after year they at the beginning of the season they are talked about as national championship contenders, however they always seem to suffer and early loss and an end of the year loss to Tressel. Nebraska and Tennessee are two other programs that could use the boost.

B.
1. LSU - Saban left Les Miles with a ton of talent to work with and a lot of it will be back next year.
2. Oklahoma - Alright, so normally I'm not a big fan of Big 12 teams, but I can see this team running the table next year now that Vince Young isn't coming back to Texas.
3. Florida - It's Urban Meyer's second season at Florida and after seeing what he did in his second seasons with Bowling Green and Utah, the trend will continue.
4. Ohio State - They lose their back 7 on defense but they are Ohio State and they just reload. With Troy Smith and most of the explosive offense back they'll be able to dodge the early bullet against Texas and allow the young D to gel.
5. West Virginia - They put on a great show in the Sugar Bowl, and they should make it past Virginia Tech now that there is no guy named Vick as the QB.


And just for the heck of it:
6. Florida State - An young team that won the ACC and played Penn State hard in the Orange Bowl.
7. USC - The D will get even worse next year with the lose of Darnell Bing at safety and the Offense, well let's just hope they are able to reload or they could be going to the Insight.com bowl
8. Texas - The lose of Vince Young is devastating and the new QB Colt McCoy has some huge shoes to fill...I'm thinking they are just a bit too big.
9. Penn State - The Defense will be there but they have to go to Columbus this year.
10. Georgia Tech - Alright so this is also my answer to C and I'll explain it there.

C. Georgia Tech: it's been a while since last won the National title ('90) and their in one of the more football talented states in the Union. They will also will have a ton of pieces returning on Offense. The Defense, while losing one of the best LB's in the country in Gerris Wilkerson in addition to DE Eric Henderson and most of their starting secondary, will still be pretty good. They have one of the biggest most physical CBs in college football in Kenny Scott and Jamal Lewis has what it takes to be the a top corner at this level. Oh yeah, and most of the front 7 will be pretty experienced.

EDIT: You don't have to reply to all three questions

I agree that Fulmer needs to do something this season at Tennessee or else a head may roll.

I hate to do this, but I think Spurrier's Gamecocks will be the surprise BCS team.

A. Which major program most needs a BCS championship this upcoming year?

Tennessee. You talk about Michigan underachieving, but atleas theyve been to a Rose Bowl recently. Tennessee continues to lose games they shouldnt (they lost to FRIGGIN VANDY) and Fulmer looks like he is losing it.

Texas A&M also badly needs a bowl of some kind, anything lower than the Peach Bowl and I think Franchione is canned. And he should be, what an overrated hire.


B. Who are you top 5 teams going into next year and why?

1. Ohio State- Very simple. Troy Smith is now the best quaterback in college. Better than Quinn in my opinion too. I think OSU with 1 loss could make the championship game just because I dont see a truly dominant team like a USC/Texas/Oklahoma of the past few years coming out. Oh, and thier recruiting is great as always.

2. LSU- I know you saw the Miami game. Miami is not that bad. LSU IS that good. Thier defense is mostly back as is thier offense, Jamarcus Russell should continue to improve. This LSU team looks better than the National Championship team from a few years back...

3. Notre Dame- This is real bad for the rest of the country, everyone knows what Notre Dame can do recruiting wise when its at the top of its game. The defense doesnt have to be much better than last year, just a little bit.

4. West Virginia- Im not as impressed as some people are with WVU, they still will need better overall quaterback play to win a title but I think they are legit now. They could easily run the table in the Big East, go undefeated with VaTech & Virginia down (maybe) and get voted in.

5. Florida State- They showed me something when they beat Miami, VaTech, and almost beat Penn State. This is going to be a really good team, better than Miami I am betting. Weatherford looked better as the season went on, and the defense was top 5 without thier best corner (who is still considered a first rounder despite his ACL? injury).

Im not impressed with Florida still. Leak doesnt fit Meyer's offense, and I know Meyer wants thier young kid Portis in there. Maybe thier offense will pick up from where it left off, but too many questions for me to make them a top 5 team. You'll see me sporting some Leak avatars though, hes the man

C. Which program is going to surprise everyone and make it too the BCS ala Penn State this year and Utah and Auburn the previous year?

Nebraska, though I dont know if its a suprise. Bigger surprise? Well, I think a Big 12 North team has a legit chance to win the Big 12. Oregon might have a chance too since they have RYAN LEAF'S YOUNGER BROTHER *dun dun dun*

Honestly, I'm not impressed at all with Notre Dame. If you remember, Ty Willingham had just as good of a first season and pulled in a terrific recruiting class (The one with Brady Quinn and Jeff Samardzija) and we all know how that turned out for him. In addition, Notre Dame had a terribly weak schedule this year and didnt beat a single notable opponent. And honestly, their Defense is mediocre at best, 617, that's how many yards they gave up too Ohio State in the Fiesta. Charlie Weis Still has a lot too prove at the college level before I start ranking them high.

As far as Florida is concerned, if you watched them play this season you saw that Meyer realized that Leak wasn't going to be able to proficiently run his offense, so he changed the offense around to maximize the talent that he had. Meyer is a great coach, he'll have that team gelled next year.

You're right about Tennessee, they are a team that desparately needs something good too happen (especially after this years fiasco of a season).

I'm not as much of a fan of the off-season stuff, and preseason predictions are always guesswork. But I will say people are underestimating the potential for a quarterback controversy at LSU and overestimating the pressure Fulmer is under at Tennessee. He certainly needs to improve over last year's performance, but he doesn't need to win the BCS, or even the East, necessarily. It's hard for me to say that any program ever needs a BCS championship - that's a lofty goal for anyone.

I'm trying to reserve my comments for teams I have a good familiarity with, so I'll also say that I'm more with RedFusion than Azale on Florida. Meyer did a good job of modifying his system to fit his talent late in the year, and his recruiting class is just ridiculous - maybe the best since FSU's heyday.

As for everyone's favorite team from Alabama (Yea!) we'll probably be in pretty good shape if we can get Andre Smith. Even without him, next year's class already has two good and two competent O-linemen, and everyone on the Cotton bowl line will be back. The only wholly new offensive starter will be the QB (almost certainly Wilson) who performed well in largely meaningless backup situations this year.

Seven are lost from the nation's best defense, but it's important to remember that most of those seven were not highly thought of out of high school; they were built by Joe Kines. There is certainly talent there to fill the holes, but they will be lacking in experience, with a soft early schedule helping out there as well . . .

If you look at the schedule, losses at Florida (first road test for the first year starting QB) and Tennessee (first year starting QB thought the Swamp was loud) are virtually inevitable, with LSU and Auburn also likely favorites. Alabama will surely win one of those last two, and could theoretically win both (LSU is in Baton Rouge, Auburn is in Tuscaloosa, with both of those series favoring the away team a bit). I'd say Alabama finishes the regular season at 8-3 or maybe 9-2 with a lot of luck on their side. 7-4 wouldn't be a shock though.

Without actually looking at the schedules in depth here's how the SEC will sort out next year:

WEST

LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi
Arkansas
Mississippi State

EAST

Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

Notre Dame's offense is 10 times better under Weis than it ever was under Willingham...the difference between Carlyle Holliday and Brady Quinn is astronomical. Weis is also a better coach, although the whole Willingham fiasco was horrible on Notre Dame's part. Thier lucky Weis is so good, helped them save face.

And because of that schedule, which only includes Michigan and AT USC as problematic, Notre Dame could run the table or lose 1 game and be in the National Championship game (which is on FOX now...I dont know how I feel about that).

Maybe your right about Florida, we will have to see. We'll know after thier first 3 games. I just do not see them as a top 5 team, Meyer's specialty is the shotgun-gimmicky offense he has run before, not the traditional one he is trying to run now.

After all the underclassmen have declared:

1] West Virginia
2] Ohio St.
3] Notre Dame
4] LSU
5] Florida
6] Oklahoma
7] USC
8] Michigan
9] Miami
10] Oregon
11] Texas
12] Loiusville
13] Penn St.
14] Auburn
15] Cal
16] Georgia
17] Alabama
18] Nebraska
19] TCU
20] Arizona St.
21] Iowa
22] Clemson
23] Virginia Tech
24] Iowa St.
25] Florida St.

The important thing to remember about West Virginia is they're in the Big East, which gives them an easy road to an undefeated season, but also means one loss and they're automatically out of it, no matter what happens to anyone else . . .

Azale said:

Notre Dame's offense is 10 times better under Weis than it ever was under Willingham...the difference between Carlyle Holliday and Brady Quinn is astronomical. Weis is also a better coach, although the whole Willingham fiasco was horrible on Notre Dame's part. Thier lucky Weis is so good, helped them save face.

And because of that schedule, which only includes Michigan and AT USC as problematic, Notre Dame could run the table or lose 1 game and be in the National Championship game (which is on FOX now...I dont know how I feel about that).

Click to expand...

I would greatly dissagree with you on Michigan and USC being the only problems on their schedule next year. Looking over their schedule I see several mines, at Georgia Tech, vs. Penn State, at Michigan State (especially since John L. outcoached Wies this past season), and additionally one or two of the following could end up being hazardous: vs Purdue, Stanford, and UCLA in back to back weeks. I'll post thier full schedule at the bottom of my post but I wouldn't be shocked if they started next season 0-4 or 1-3. Also, Wies took over a Notre Dame team that was much better talent wise than that which Willingham took over (which had Holiday as the QB). Willingham is a good coach, even if domers don't want to admit it. He did a great job at stanford and we'll never really know what he could have done at Notre Dame since he never even got to see one of his recruiting classes mature. It's way too early to proclaim Weis a great head coach, why, because he's only been one for 1 season in his entire coaching career...and with a month too prepare got absolutely embarrassed in the Fiesta.

If anyone has a chance to run the table this year on a weak schedule it's West Virginy, I checked out it's schedule this year and it's OOC sched has Maryland, Miss. State, Marshall, Buffalo, and East Carolina. Not exactly stressful.

Georgia Tech isnt going to fulfill its potential under the worst coach in college football...Chan Gailey.

Gotta admit though, I didnt know the full extent of Notre Dame's schedule. Penn State might be a problem, but I think they win that. Are they playing MSU in the first half or second half of the season? First half, a loss, second half, an easy win. You know how MSU plays in the second half of a season...

Theyll beat Purdue and Stanford, and struggle against UCLA. IMO. Notre Dame wont be wowed by Pac 10 offenses or Big 10 defenses though.

Youve convinced me that they wont easily run the table...but I still think thier talent level and recruiting class alone warrants top 5 placement.

ummmm........ said:

As for everyone's favorite team from Alabama (Yea!) we'll probably be in pretty good shape if we can get Andre Smith. Even without him, next year's class already has two good and two competent O-linemen, and everyone on the Cotton bowl line will be back. The only wholly new offensive starter will be the QB (almost certainly Wilson) who performed well in largely meaningless backup situations this year.

Seven are lost from the nation's best defense, but it's important to remember that most of those seven were not highly thought of out of high school; they were built by Joe Kines. There is certainly talent there to fill the holes, but they will be lacking in experience, with a soft early schedule helping out there as well . . .

If you look at the schedule, losses at Florida (first road test for the first year starting QB) and Tennessee (first year starting QB thought the Swamp was loud) are virtually inevitable, with LSU and Auburn also likely favorites. Alabama will surely win one of those last two, and could theoretically win both (LSU is in Baton Rouge, Auburn is in Tuscaloosa, with both of those series favoring the away team a bit). I'd say Alabama finishes the regular season at 8-3 or maybe 9-2 with a lot of luck on their side. 7-4 wouldn't be a shock though.

Click to expand...

I read that first sentence and I'm thinking, 'yeah Auburn...oh wait, he means the Crimson Tide!' (j/k). More seriously though, Bama will win 8 games this upcoming year (they move to the 12 game schedule next year). Though I do think they will steal a win either against Auburn or the other big 3 on the road this year giving them 9.

Oops, and here's Notre Dames Sked:
9-2-06 at Georgia Tech
9-9-06 PENN STATE
9-16-06 MICHIGAN
9-23-06 at Michigan State
9-30-06 PURDUE
10-7-06 STANFORD
10-21-06 UCLA
10-28-06 at Navy @Baltimore, MD
11-4-06 NORTH CAROLINA
11-11-06 at Air Force
11-18-06 ARMY
11-25-06 at Southern California

Azale said:

Georgia Tech isnt going to fulfill its potential under the worst coach in college football...Chan Gailey.

Gotta admit though, I didnt know the full extent of Notre Dame's schedule. Penn State might be a problem, but I think they win that. Are they playing MSU in the first half or second half of the season? First half, a loss, second half, an easy win. You know how MSU plays in the second half of a season...

Theyll beat Purdue and Stanford, and struggle against UCLA. IMO. Notre Dame wont be wowed by Pac 10 offenses or Big 10 defenses though.

Youve convinced me that they wont easily run the table...but I still think thier talent level and recruiting class alone warrants top 5 placement.

Click to expand...

I really don't think they will win the Penn State game. Penn State's D was about as good as Ohio State's, and they have most of their starters returning next year. After seeing how the ND O was dominanted in the Fiesta, there is no way I can see them getting past PSU unless their O plays a horrific game. And the MSU game is a first half game.

Don't get too caught up in the recruiting class, remember most of those players will be redshirted. They are young and need time to develop. Remember the Zooker at Florida with all his #1 classes, look at him now.

RedFusion said:

. . . they move to the 12 game schedule next year . . .

Click to expand...

Right you are. I keep forgetting about that Duke game. It's just so embarrassing, you see . . .

Also, a win vs. Auburn might not even be an upset by the time it rolls around. Auburn's losing McNeill, the LT that's made their offense look so impressive the past five years. There's nothing in this world so important to an offense as a dominating left tackle . . ..

RedFusion said:

I really don't think they will win the Penn State game. Penn State's D was about as good as Ohio State's, and they have most of their starters returning next year. After seeing how the ND O was dominanted in the Fiesta, there is no way I can see them getting past PSU unless their O plays a horrific game. And the MSU game is a first half game.

Click to expand...

Notre Dame's offense found its synch later in the game, and if not for the defense...which WAS dominated...they would have had a chance to tie it and win it in OT. Penn State will not have near the offense that OSU had this year.

Azale said:

Notre Dame's offense found its synch later in the game, and if not for the defense...which WAS dominated...they would have had a chance to tie it and win it in OT. Penn State will not have near the offense that OSU had this year.

Click to expand...

Not really, even if they had played that succesfully throughout the game they still wouldn't have been able to win. They chose the risky 3 step drop in the second half out of desparation, and still that only resulted in 13--should have been 14 w/o the XP miss--points. They had two drives that were successful, the others were less than memorable, including a drive that yielded a whopping -19 yards!! Not to mention the fact that they were only still in the game score wise b/c of some sloppy turnovers by the Buckeyes in the first half--including a fumble at the ND 9.
I know it looked like they found thier groove in the second half, but that's only in comparison to the horrid display they put on in the first half.

ummmm........ said:

Right you are. I keep forgetting about that Duke game. It's just so embarrassing, you see . . .

Also, a win vs. Auburn might not even be an upset by the time it rolls around. Auburn's losing McNeill, the LT that's made their offense look so impressive the past five years. There's nothing in this world so important to an offense as a dominating left tackle . . ..

Click to expand...

Don't feel so bad, somebody has got too play duke

Somebody's got to play I-AA teams. That's no good reason for us to do it :gripe

Miami doesnt mind playing Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Florida International every year

FSU gets it sick kicks out of playing Citadel

and my beloved Texas cant wait to unleash horrible carnage on Rice & Louisiana-Lafayette

All Elite teams and above average teams play cupcakes, thats what seperates college football from NFL football. There are just games teams will NEVER lose, EVER.

Yes, but anything that can be done to toughen up schedules would improve the sport. Alabama's got a newly expanded stadium to fill next year, and this is the home schedule: Hawaii, Vandy, Louisiana-Monroe, Duke, Ole Miss, Florida International, Mississippi State and Auburn. Even if I still got student tickets, I'd only go to four of those. Auburn or maybe Ole Miss are the only ones worth fighting traffic from Birmingham.

But my opinion is also partially based on the fact that I only care about winning the SEC. If you're going for a national title, it probably isn't worth it to schedule those tougher games . . .

EDIT: Any way you look at it, inter-division play should just be banned outright . . .

So you dont believe in National Championship games? Gotta say, I would not have been satisfied with Texas just taking the Big 12 this year...

oh, and I somewhat take back what I said about the above average teams never losing because it seems I forgot about this shocker: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=200509170063