Meant to take the shot but don't seem to have it. I'll do my best to explain. We had left little and were in a general retreat towards poison city. How they positioned themselves was as shown below, and thus separated like that I figured that among the 3 options I saw (1 - attacking now, 2 - maybe attacking next turn, and 3 defending two turns out) that with the units assembled and running round and such that the defending option was one of the worst options out there. With little fortify to depend on and no cultural defense their armies would possibly lose only the two catapults, quickly getting most battles in the 90s, etc. And with the Cuirassiers separated I figured my best chance to win anything would be right now so I attacked.
This is what was is the Amazon stack:
3 Xbow - C2Shock, C2Cover, C1Shock
1 Knight C2Pinch
6 WE - 3C2Pinch, C2Shock, C2Formation, C1Pinch
2 Mace - CR3, C1CoverCR1
1 Pike - C2
4 Siege
17 units, 13 core and 4 seige
We had 16 units, 15* and 1 siege
4 Musket - C2, C1Pinch, C1, 0
2 Mace - CR3, C1
1 Longbow - O
4 Xbow - 3 wounded, 5.3C3, 5.5C2, 4.3C2 & CG1
5 HA - some wounded, full C2, 2 full C1, wounded C1-C2s
a warrior which I'll discount and a cat - B2
I look at this and yeah, they got alot up against the muskets but once I get past the knight I got quite a few base 9 troops against the promoted 8s; if I can massage some of those down, I may be able to get some pretty close battles, and that I'll take over losing it all. I throw the cat in and get lucky with where the collateral fell, 2 pinches i believe, and then I make a pretty bad litle blunder, I send in the CG xbow from bubble gum without sending engineering over from merlot, so bam, he's outta moves, but through the other xbows and along the HAs damage was made with each battle and by the time the muskets came around we got some coin flips but just didn't have enough luck
cat v knight, 5 v 12, 2.3%, lose
xbow v knight, 6.55 v 10.44, 8.5%, lose
xbow v knight, 6.86 v 8.64, 24.7%, win
xbow v WE, 5.04 v 9.6, 1.5%, lose
HA v WE, 4.75 v 13.72, 0.1%, withdraw
HA v WE, 4.29 v 13.6, 0.0%, withdraw
HA v WE, 7.2 v 13.6, 1.2%, lose
HA v WE, 6.6 v 13.6, 0.8%, lose
HA v WE, 6.6 v 12.8, 1.0%, withdraw
musket v WE, 10.8 v 10.2, 53.7%, win
musket v WE, 9.9 v 9.97, 49.8%, lose
musket v WE, 9.9 v 9.97, 49.8%, lose
musket v mace, 9 v 8.8, 63.8%, lose
mace v xbow, 8 v 11.7, 8.0% lose
mace v xbow, 8.8 v 9.65, 37.6%, win
In the first picture below all that is shown (what won or withdrew) got deleted. In fact all we have in a longbow and in those last few battles I lost track of the dutch Cuirassiers (bottom picture) so that means they (the dutch, or carthage if they had units in boats) can take both cities next turn, we're effectively done on the mainland, 1090ad