First off, from my perspective as an American it is no more unlikely than what the american player wrote up.
This is the point I would take issue with.
I would start by reading the last year of the
Economist, followed by a year of reading back issues of
The Financial Times. Ideally, four years would be best -- you really want to get a sense of current events from 2007, just before the recession.
First of all, you posit a right-wing government taking power in Italy that suspends democracy, invades Libya and Egypt, withdraws from the Euro, builds prestige nuclear and space programs, &c, &c.
What you fail to posit is any
opposition to those policies. Which is absolute BS. Let's just take one of your premises -- withdrawal from the Euro.
It took ten years and billions of dollars to transition from the lira to the euro. Transitioning out of the euro will have the following effects:
* it requires the complete, overnight conversion of every cash register, ATM, vending machine (see: 2002 Euro transition)
* a bank run to end all bank runs; the second a bank opens, it will be thronged with panicked savers trying to extract their money while it still has value (see: Cyprus, right now)
* a total crash in the value of Italian sovereign debt, meaning that the government defaults and goes into bankruptcy -- and expect no help from the IMF, the ECB, or anybody else who thinks your government has gone completely ing insane (see: Argentina, 1997 Asian crisis)
These three happen the second you declare you intend to withdraw from the Euro. (See also discussions of Greek and Cypriot policy; I recommend economist blogs. Try reading Paul Krugman.) Combined with the total evisceration of social welfare programs, unemployment will likely exceed 50%, as the Italian economy totally collapses; expect street riots, as the population, now with literally no options other than starve, demand foreign military intervention to restore democracy.
Meanwhile, the second you declare this plan in parliament, the opposition will introduce a motion of no confidence; should this Prime Minister fail to leave, the army gets called in. At this point, who has the legitimacy? (Hint: It's not you)
Those are the flaws with *one* of your provisions. I haven't even begun digging into any of the other problematic issues with your entry -- the fact that "leaving the Euro" is tossed out there, without any consideration of the real-world consequences of such an action, is disappointing.
Second, you completely blow off climate change, which Azale has stated he intends to make a serious part of this game. That's pretty disrespectful, both to the mod and to the game itself -- that's certainly not going to win you any favors.
Finally, Italy produced, in 2010, about 150,000 bbl/day of oil, putting it just above the oil-producing powerhouses of Brunei, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kansas.
Italy consumed, again in 2010, about 1,528,000 barrels of oil per day.
Please show me on a map where the proven Italian oil reserves are that can make up the extra 1,378,000 bbl/day for the Italian economy to continue functioning.
The rest of your entry is just as problematic. While, as the UN player, I would certainly be /amused/, the effects you posit in your submission are simply not going to happen in this universe. Even Hungary, whose president has these sorts of ambitions, is losing his staredown with the EU.