PRELUDE
Japan exists in an increasingly precarious international situation. The
sakoku policy of exclusion was increasingly tested in the early 19th century, with the Russian Empire launching attacks on Sakhalin and the Chishima Islands from 1805–1808, the aggressive actions of the
HMS Phaeton in 1808 in Nagasaki harbor resulting in the establishment of the
ikokusen uchiharairei (Edict to Repel Foreign Vessels)—and a new focus on English and Russian translation capabilities instead of merely Dutch—in 1825, the British claim of the Bonin Islands in 1827 and American settlement of the same in 1830, and many other national insults.
Debate rages as to how Japan should respond to increasing foreign transgressions, and its isolationist and exclusionist policy is not absolute, with
rangaku (Dutch Learning) having gone on since the beginning of the
sakoku policy, and trade continuing to be conducted officially with Korea and the Netherlands and unofficially with China.
The domestic situation is hardly less complex. The
Tokugawa bakufu, established at the end of the
sengoku jidai, is stagnating and the basis of its power
is unraveling under the long peace. The land is divided into
han, each ruled over by a lord—a
daimyō—and defined by
kokudaka (rice yield in
koku). These
daimyō come in three categories:
fudai, often appointed to the
shōgunate's administrative positions and placed at key strategic points;
shinpan, relatives of the
shōgun; and
tozama, the richest, largest, or most powerful, which are largely excluded from the government and kept in check through political marriages and familial hostages. In addition to having been implemented to curb the spread of Catholicism, the
sakoku policy was also intended to limit the wealth and power of many of the
tozawa daimyō. Coupled with the
mibun tōsei rei (Separation Edict) which sharply stratifies social classes along lines first promulgated in ancient China (the
shi, nō, kō, shō or Four Occupations) this has lead to an uneasy era of stagnation that masks great tensions.
DETERIORATION
Those tensions are put under further strain in 1836. Following the already bad disasters of the
1834 Edo Kōgo Fire and
1835 Sanriku Earthquake, the ongoing
Great Tenpō Famine hits full stride, in part due to climatic variance and the
inflexibility of the economic pricing and taxation system synergizing with declines in rice production and rising prices. In addition to wide-spread starvation and famine, this also results in government revenue decline due to a drop in
kokudaka. The spread of disease in the famine's wake claims yet more lives, and the stagnant economic prospects of the
samurai pushes many into the hands of the
fudashi (rice brokers), which only exacerbates economic imbalances. The reigning
shōgun,
Tokugawa Ienari, is by this time lecherous degenerate who fills his days with pleasure and excess and cares nothing for the suffering of the masses, so nothing is done to address the worsening situation. It seems like something has to give.
So it is that on Sunday, May 15, 1836, Tokugawa Ienari is assassinated during the events of the
Kanda matsuri in Edo by unknown assailants. Although he was not the first
shōgun to be killed (
Tokugawa Tsunayoshi was murdered by his wife), he was the first to be politically assassinated. This, coupled with his long rule (49 years) makes the action particularly shocking. The professionalism with which he and his immediate bodyguard are dispatched in the confusion of the
matsuri leads some to conclude his death to be the work of
shinobi, possibly even some long-forgotten remnant of the Iga or Kōga (ironic if true, given both had served the Tokugawa at various times). Accusations fly that he has been murdered by
tozama daimyō, by the
Emperor Ayahito, by one of his sons, by one of his many wives, or even—for his shamelessness—by the
kami themselves. The truth is rather simpler, though known to virtually none: Date Yohorsehockyaka, a leading member of the senior branch of the
Date clan in the Sendai Domain, ordered the assassination in retaliation for the devastation the Great Tenpō Famine wrought on his
daimyō's lands. The origin of the assassins remains a mystery.
The chaos that follows the death of Tokugawa Ienari is immediate, and it is several weeks (early June, 1836) until
Tokugawa Ieyoshi establishes himself as
shōgun, having been away from Edo and unprepared for these events. In the meantime, the
tozama and other interested factions, led by Date Yohorsehockyaka from behind the scenes, make a power play, appealing for the Emperor to weigh in on affairs, although he observes protocol and tradition and remains silent—for the time-being. At the same time, motivated by the suffering of the people,
Ōshio Heihachirō burns down roughly a quarter of Osaka
[3], and inspires numerous
ikki rebellions that cross class lines among the disaffected whom the famine has most adversely affected. While most of these latter are simple acts of localized brigandry, some become notable regional security threats. Tokugawa Ieyoshi, discerning the efforts of the
tozama to advance their position through the
oniwaban secret police and simultaneously dealing with the minor uprisings, implements a harsh crackdown even while promising reforms, punitively increasing annual obligations on the
tozama (setting
sankin-kōtai rotations at 6 months instead of a year, to begin in 3 months, and setting more arduous public works schedules) even as he demands they assist in restoring the status quo. This in turn pushes the the
tozama to pursue a more aggressive posture.
DATE YOhorsehockyAKA
Born in 1812 and 24 at the time of the ongoing crisis, Date Yohorsehockyaka would at first seem to be unnaturally young to be such an influential figure in the Date clan. This would be without reckoning for his force of personality and machinations. Greatly inspired by his clan ancestor,
Date Masamune, and appalled at the ongoing Great Tenpō Famine, Yohorsehockyaka was driven to delve deeply into study of the
Sengoku jidai to search for an answer to the ongoing crisis in the face of
bakufu apathy. It was during these studies that he became convinced that
Oda Nobunaga's vision for Japan had been betrayed by his successors
Toyotomi Hideyoshi and
Tokugawa Ieyasu, and that this distortion of vision had only become worse under Tokugawa's descendants. After months of significant consultation of period accounts of the
Sengoku jidai and what material was available to him on
rangaku, he determines the
bakufu must be reformed or abolished. His precise views on what should come about instead remain initially nebulous, although it is clear to him that Japan cannot remain isolated under the
sakoku policy.
It is within this context that he arranges for the assassination of Tokugawa Ienari (through means still mysterious) and—utilizing this as leverage over his
daimyō Date Narikuni, for if it were made public the entire Date clan would likely be wiped out in reprisal—begins to proactively exercise control over the Date from behind the scenes. Being a figure with less than the utmost importance in the clan, he is free to move about and negotiate with
daimyō without raising suspicion. It is he who orchestrates the airing of grievances and request for intervention to the Emperor (through an intermediary) and it is he who is ultimately behind the brewing
tozama rebellion.
ESCALATION
By early July the situation between the
bakufu and
tozawa becomes sufficiently confused and vicious that Date Yohorsehockyaka is able to assemble (with the help of a trusted translator) a letter to King William IV of the United Kingdom requesting arms (principally flintlocks and cannons) and advisors to be delivered to remote locations in
tozawa secured areas. He manages to obtain the
kaō of many likeminded
daimyō and clan leaders to endorse it through the argument that foreign aid and superior technology (many remembering the Nagasaki Harbor Incident) will 1. provide a trump card that will force the
bakufu to negotiate, 2. result in the forceful abandonment of the
sakoku system to the benefit of the
tozawa, 3. provide a decisive advantage if negotiations break down and hostilities occur, and 4. entangle a foreign power's interests in the outcome of the war and so prevent their intervention in a way detrimental to the aims of the
tozawa. This letter is given to a Dutchman who is paid handsomely for its transmission and his loyalty in the matter, and it is expected to arrive in November to December, with a response, if any, coming in April to May of 1837. It is at this time that the aligned
tozawa may first be designated as the
renritsu (Coalition), although the term does not become popularized until the next year. The stage is set for a showdown between
renritsu and
bakufu, between Coalition and Shōgunate.
The immediate aims of the
renritsu are muted. In an effort to avoid detection by
oniwaban, they make efforts to stockpile arms in secret and stall or accede to the
bakufu's demands regarding putting down the
ikki. (It is notable that when possible the
renritsu do not actually destroy the
ikki but attempt to convince them to temporarily stand down and side with the
renritsu when the time is right. This policy is difficult to implement but manages some success, although word also occasionally leaks that something suspicious is occurring.) Gunsmiths are bought up by the
renritsu and moved to remote regions within their territory to resume production of
tanegashima matchlock guns in warfighting quantities during this time to gain a military edge over the
bakufu.
Samurai, often at this point bureaucrats rather than warriors, are more extensively deployed and trained under the pretext of dealing with the
ikki, as are
ashigaru, with the process being used to determine combat fitness. The different
tozawa of the
renritsu commit to this with varying degrees of enthusiasm—Date takes them extremely seriously, as do, interestingly,
Shimazu of
Satsuma han. There are also efforts to find and locate within the populace
rōnin and those otherwise inclined to and skilled in fighting to function as, effectively, Non-Commissioned Officers—it is regarded as inevitable that peasant conscripts or volunteers will need to be mobilized to fight and beat the
bakufu. Ōshio Heihachirō is notably recruited during this time, and hidden from
bakufu authorities.
The
bakufu, for its part, is aware that
something is occurring, and makes its own efforts to improve its readiness, although their efforts are focused upon the
samurai and
ashigaru and increasing the fortifications of certain points of strategic control and access—this likewise done under the pretext of the
ikki and increased brigandry.
This continues from July through December, during which the
ikki are increasingly put down by the
bakufu side or restrained by the
renritsu and the accelerated-schedule
sankin-kōtai processions come into effect. What is not immediately obvious is that the
renritsu daimyō bring with them some of their most skilled warriors disguised as servants and assign only the most loyal
samurai as their official retinue, and so a highly skilled military force is slowly but surely infiltrating Edo. The intent of this is to break the
renritsu daimyō and families out of the city by providing a fighting retreat so they might escape by horse or boat in the event of conflict. There are rumors among the upper echelons of the
renritsu that
shinobi are also being deployed. From the surface, the situation appears to have returned to normal. It is to be merely the calm before the storm. Date Yohorsehockyaka has set the deadline for the
renritsu mobilization and issuance of an ultimatum to the
bakufu for February 3, 1837—
setsubun—as a symbolic gesture.
