bcool
Deity
AP votes go like this...
If there is no valid voting option, it checks every turn until there is a valid voting option.
So if we delay the war and there is no valid voting option, she can still call up a cancel war vote the next turn.
There is NOT a valid voting option I believe, the most likely is something like cancel trading with the infidels (Joao for example) but this doesn't apply right now
--not fun for us 33 gold per turn lost perhaps more after we capture the GLH
If there is a valid voting option there won't be another one for 14 turns. So yes after that first vote we wouldn't have to worry about it since persumably Cathy would be very much diminished.
Why I think we should still declare on Cathy before the vote...
We declare on Cathy T249
She votes to stop the war. We defy. we get 5
in BC's mistake
We DO NOT GET 5 in future Cathy cities that we capture after the defiance vote.
AND we capture Moscow T250 and get 2 trade routes per city, which I think is worth about at least 2 more 2 commerce trade routes per city or 18 * 4 72 gold/turn
and we get the parthenon benefits which is about 16 gp / turn.
So Not delaying for 2 turns might get us...
negatives
---5 in BC's Mistake for 15+ turns (which will not hurt)
---5 perhaps in Moscow if we capture it the turn of the defiance vote, but no other cities will get it.
(The unhappiness lasts until the next successful vote that we vote for. Not likely we will want any vote Cathy chooses. But by the time of the next vote Cathy might be near dead, so we could stop a resolution most likely from passing which wouldn't help the)
Positives
--- 72
/turn and 16 
/turn at least 2 turns earlier
---Avoid the consequences of a different AP vote (which we could defy, but then why delay the war?) I believe there are no valid options but the most likely AP vote would be to stop trading with Joao her current worst enemy. That means a loss of about 33 gold in trade routes to Joao for 15+ turns.
--we get Cathy's cities 2 turns earlier and all future cities most likely
In total if we don't delay the war we save or get 639 additional gold over the next 15 turns in all possibly.
Delay the DoW by 2 turns for the first vote
negatives
Most likely won't help us because there is no valid vote! Since there is no valid vote until we declare war on her, she would get the vote the turn after the DoW anyways.
--Cathy gets another AP vote to play with. Which I believe would most likely be to stop trading with Joao. Which would be costly.
--Cathy gets 2 more turns to tech/build before the war
positives
--we give ourselves 2 more turns to marshall troops, but I believe by T249 we have plenty of troops to start the war very successfully (10 musketeers 2 treb, 2 spies for Moscow) (3 Treb 3 musketeers for small city north of Hittite)
----by delaying 2 turns we could probably get 2 more musketeers and a treb to Moscow (so a total of 12 musketeers and 3 treb and 2 spies to Moscow instead and perhaps cheaper but riskier espionage missions)
--we avoid 5 in our hindu cities (only BC's Mistake currently) and possibly 5 in Moscow if we capture it the turn of the defiance vote.
If there is no valid voting option, it checks every turn until there is a valid voting option.
So if we delay the war and there is no valid voting option, she can still call up a cancel war vote the next turn.
There is NOT a valid voting option I believe, the most likely is something like cancel trading with the infidels (Joao for example) but this doesn't apply right now
--not fun for us 33 gold per turn lost perhaps more after we capture the GLH
If there is a valid voting option there won't be another one for 14 turns. So yes after that first vote we wouldn't have to worry about it since persumably Cathy would be very much diminished.
Why I think we should still declare on Cathy before the vote...
We declare on Cathy T249
She votes to stop the war. We defy. we get 5
in BC's mistakeWe DO NOT GET 5
in future Cathy cities that we capture after the defiance vote.AND we capture Moscow T250 and get 2 trade routes per city, which I think is worth about at least 2 more 2 commerce trade routes per city or 18 * 4 72 gold/turn
and we get the parthenon benefits which is about 16 gp / turn.
So Not delaying for 2 turns might get us...
negatives
---5
in BC's Mistake for 15+ turns (which will not hurt)---5
perhaps in Moscow if we capture it the turn of the defiance vote, but no other cities will get it.(The unhappiness lasts until the next successful vote that we vote for. Not likely we will want any vote Cathy chooses. But by the time of the next vote Cathy might be near dead, so we could stop a resolution most likely from passing which wouldn't help the
)Positives
--- 72
/turn and 16 /turn at least 2 turns earlier---Avoid the consequences of a different AP vote (which we could defy, but then why delay the war?) I believe there are no valid options but the most likely AP vote would be to stop trading with Joao her current worst enemy. That means a loss of about 33 gold in trade routes to Joao for 15+ turns.
--we get Cathy's cities 2 turns earlier and all future cities most likely
Delay the DoW by 2 turns for the first vote
negatives
Most likely won't help us because there is no valid vote! Since there is no valid vote until we declare war on her, she would get the vote the turn after the DoW anyways.
--Cathy gets another AP vote to play with. Which I believe would most likely be to stop trading with Joao. Which would be costly.
--Cathy gets 2 more turns to tech/build before the war
positives
--we give ourselves 2 more turns to marshall troops, but I believe by T249 we have plenty of troops to start the war very successfully (10 musketeers 2 treb, 2 spies for Moscow) (3 Treb 3 musketeers for small city north of Hittite)
----by delaying 2 turns we could probably get 2 more musketeers and a treb to Moscow (so a total of 12 musketeers and 3 treb and 2 spies to Moscow instead and perhaps cheaper but riskier espionage missions)
--we avoid 5
in our hindu cities (only BC's Mistake currently) and possibly 5 in Moscow if we capture it the turn of the defiance vote.
