SGOTM 15 - One Short Straw

Mitchum · Mar 21, 2012

LowtherCastle said:
I don't think we even want to bother with a forge in NC.

Well, a forge provides +2

, which will be nice when war weariness starts to become an issue, especially if we want to grow NC large and work a lot of riverside cottages. The extra 25% hammer bonus will pay for itself in the long run. I guess it really depends on whether or not NC has something else useful to build.

Regarding cottages, I guess we should decide soon whether we want to build any or not. As ZPV said, we could just build farms and run merchants under Caste System. This has the added benefit of leveraging our Philosophical trait. However, without OB, which will be tough with a bunch of Buddhist 'Gawas in the game, a GM trade mission will be hard to pull off.

ZPV · Mar 21, 2012

Mitchum said:
Well, a forge provides +2 , which will be nice when war weariness starts to become an issue, especially if we want to grow NC large and work a lot of riverside cottages. The extra 25% hammer bonus will pay for itself in the long run. I guess it really depends on whether or not NC has something else useful to build.

Regarding cottages, I guess we should decide soon whether we want to build any or not. As ZPV said, we could just build farms and run merchants under Caste System. This has the added benefit of leveraging our Philosophical trait. However, without OB, which will be tough with a bunch of Buddhist 'Gawas in the game, a GM trade mission will be hard to pull off.

GMs don't need OBs

NC does not need a forge. We don't have 120 hammers to build one there.

Mitchum · Mar 21, 2012

ZPV said:
GMs don't need OBs

I never knew that. Thanks. :goodjob:

As you can tell, I don't use GMs for trade missions very often.

I think I recall OBs affecting the value of a trade mission. Checking... Nope. It's based off of a "hypothetical" trade route. :goodjob:

Unless I'm misunderstanding something in DanF's post.

LowtherCastle · Mar 21, 2012

Pre-Play Plan T64-T79 ALTERED AND REVISED

Goals: Get scientists running in Delhi and Nature's Chandi on T74 and an army ready for Toku.

Alterations in red

T64
Delhi: +4f
Marble:+6f
Research: Metal Casting at 0%

T65
Select Construction from the Oracle
GEL wkr1 chop GEL-NNW
GEL wkr2 farm GEL-S (STOP)
Delhi 2N wkr roads Delhi-1NW (STOP)
Marble-NE wkr farms Delhi-1SE
Delhi builds a cat, remove Rax from queue
Zlat works the deer camp
Delhi: +8f
Marble: +2f

T66
GEL wkr2 chops GEL-SSW
Delhi-1NW wkr roads NC-ESE (STOP)
Zlat wkr chops Zlat-W (STOP)
NC works 1f3h
Marble City builds a cat
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +6f

T67
Zlat wkr chops Zlat-W (STOP)
NC-ESE wkr chops NC-E
GEL works 5f
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +6f

T68
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-S (STOP) No need to finish the chop yet. Maybe get some forest growth.
GEL-NNW wkr roads GEL-E (STOP)
NC 1pops granary
Activate the western mine in Delhi
Delhi: +2f
Marble: +8f

T69
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-S (STOP)
GEL-E wkr farms GEL-S
GEL-SSW wkr farms GEL-S
GEL builds axe
GEL switches from gold mine to 3f1c We get 6f for 3h+7g
Delhi: +3f, Delhi works copper mine
Marble: +8f

T70
Delhi-SE wkr farms Marble-NE (STOP)
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-S (STOP)
GEL wkr1 roads GEL-E
GEL wkr2 mines GEL-2W (STOP)
NC wkr roads NC-NE
Zlatorog works the deer and gold
GEL builds a cat (1-turn prebuild)
Delhi: +3f (copper)
Marble: +8f

T71
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-S (STOP)
GEL-E wkr1 mines GEL-2W (STOP)
GEL-2W wkr2 farms Marble-NE (STOP)
NC wkr chops NC-SW
Marble-NE wkr farms (STOP)
Delhi builds a cat
GEL builds barracks
NC works max food
Marble City builds axe @ 4hpt for 1 turn only
Delhi: +3f
Marble: +8f

All new units move to GEL

T72
Zlat wkr chops Zlat-W
GEL-2W wkr1 farms Marble-NE
Marble-NE wkr farms
Marble-NE wkr chops Marble-SW
NC works max food
Marble 2pops cat
Delhi: +5f
Marble: +7f

T73
2 Marble-NE wkrs farm Delhi-NE (STOPx2)
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-S
NC wkr chops NC-SW
NC works 1f3h
Zlatorog builds barracks
Zlatorog works deer and gold
GEL 2pops barracks
GEL works gold plus max food
Marble builds a cat
Delhi: +9f (copper)
Marble: +3f

T74
Research slider to 100%
Zlatorog wkr moves to forest hill at Zlat-SSE
Delhi-NE wkr chops Delhi-2N
Delhi-NE wkr farms
NC wkr roads NC-ESE
Delhi hires 2 scientists
GEL builds an axe
NC works 2 sci
NC builds a warrior (1t)
Marble builds a cat
Delhi: +1f (copper)
Marble: +7f

T75
Delhi-2N wkr1 farms Delhi-NE
Delhi-NE wkr2 farms
Zlat wkr roads Zlat-SSE
NC wkr chops NC-2S (STOP)
Marble-SW wkr mines Marble-W (STOP)
Delhi hires 2 scientists
Delhi builds an axe
Gel builds an axe
NC builds an axe
Marble builds a cat
Delhi: +0f
Marble: +9f

T76
2 Delhi-2N wkrs chop Delhi-2NE
Marble-W wkr chops Marble-NW
NC wkr chops NC-2S (STOP)
Marble 2pops axe
Delhi hires 1 scientist
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +7f

T77
Delhi-2NE wkr chops Delhi-ENE
Zlat wkr farms Zlat-W
Delhi hires 2 scientists
Marble builds a cat
ZLatorog works deer, gold, and farm
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +5f (copper)

T78
Delhi-2NE wkr chops Delhi-ENE
NC wkr chops NC-SSW (STOP)
Delhi builds an axe
Marble builds an axe
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +5f (copper)

T79
2 Delhi-ENE wkrs chop Delhi-2E
NC wkr chops NC-SSW (STOP)
Marble wkr farms Marble-N (STOP)
Delhi builds an axe
GEL 2pops cat (if pop5)
Marble builds an axe
Delhi: +4f
Marble: +5f (copper)

LowtherCastle · Mar 21, 2012

I took the PPP to T79 simply because it was necessary to understand how the unit builds and whips went. Since Toku has mining now, he might build a mine in Osaka and complete the library earlier that T68, thus taking away the corn sooner. On T66 we'll see his hill and whether a worker is mining it. Obviously, I'll stop as needed.

As I mentioned, our attack on Toku will be happen a bit later but I think the overall balance is good. I focused on getting three farms going between Delhi and Marble, so the units get produced later but rapidly. This cuts down on maintenance costs somewhat.

Since we're not beelining Literature now, I think it's better to wait to push the research slider till T74, with our second library and the specialists. We'll run out of that money rapidly anyway. On T80 our maintenance is already up to 30gpt and with Osaka and Kyoto it will be pushing 50.

I don't think running merchants is as cost effective as cottages, especially in our food poor cities. I see them as supplementary more than primary. Plus, I think we'll need both. I think we'll need 100 cottages eventually. Maintenance for this game will be roughly 2X last game. I'd only build enough farms to help us grow, then cottages, in every city that isn't working mines.

Mitchum · Mar 21, 2012

I looked at the 1000 BC (T75) save and noticed that you just started an axe in NC. Why not finish the spear you started first?

Why take the rax out of Delhi's queue. I like to leave partial builds in the queue so that we don't forget about them.

We could use the warrior in NC more in Marble City since we'll be whipping a lot and growing this city larger... I guess this only happens once Delhi's borders pop, connecting NC to Delhi and the gold. Actually, I just noticed that Marble City has Hinduism, giving it an artificial +1

... This needs to be removed in your testing if you're bumping up against the happiness limit.

At around 200g, we have enough saved up to research MC at 100% science slider. When do you plan to crank it up? OK, I see it on T74 but the test game doesn't show it. Maybe we can move it up a bit sooner. The earlier we have MC the sooner we have the option of building forges. Plus it increases our power relative to Toku...

I think Marble City should be on a 4 -> 2 whipping cycle. That's the most efficient from a Food to Hammer conversion ratio. It looks like you're growing it to 5... I'd think you could whip more here per the Shyuhe method of whipping 'til your hands bleed.

Regarding cottages and your last post, it's a good thing that bbp isn't on the team any more or he'd farm over all 100 cottages during his turnset.

Mitchum · Mar 21, 2012

BTW, if we're going to build cottages, we need to start doing so soon because they take many turns to mature and start making a noticable contribution to our economy. I guess we can have Dhoom and ZPV be the cottage guys.

LowtherCastle · Mar 21, 2012

Mitchum said:
I looked at the 1000 BC (T75) save and noticed that you just started an axe in NC. Why not finish the spear you started first?

Why take the rax out of Delhi's queue. I like to leave partial builds in the queue so that we don't forget about them.

We could use the warrior in NC more in Marble City since we'll be whipping a lot and growing this city larger... I guess this only happens once Delhi's borders pop, connecting NC to Delhi and the gold. Actually, I just noticed that Marble City has Hinduism, giving it an artificial +1 ... This needs to be removed in your testing if you're bumping up against the happiness limit.

At around 200g, we have enough saved up to research MC at 100% science slider. When do you plan to crank it up? OK, I see it on T74 but the test game doesn't show it. Maybe we can move it up a bit sooner. The earlier we have MC the sooner we have the option of building forges. Plus it increases our power relative to Toku...

I think Marble City should be on a 4 -> 2 whipping cycle. That's the most efficient from a Food to Hammer conversion ratio. It looks like you're growing it to 5... I'd think you could whip more here per the Shyuhe method of whipping 'til your hands bleed.

Regarding cottages and your last post, it's a good thing that bbp isn't on the team any more or he'd farm over all 100 cottages during his turnset.

1. I want two axes for Toku's derelict archer.
2. I don't want to put more hammers into Delhi's rax by accident. I'd rather forget about the 7h in rax, given the choice.

3. Iirc, NC needs the warrior at pop4 until T75. After that, it's free to move where needed. I think the warrior at Delhi is also free to move. I've been ignoring them except for NC's needs.
4. I'd rather not consume our coins before T74. Our maintenance costs are going to be severe. IF we wait a few turns to build a forge or two, no biggie. I'm seriously concerned about our economy grindingn to a halt, which no one else seems to be. It will be a long time before we get CoL.
5. I agree on whipping in Marble. The problem with the 4>2 whipping cycle in Marble is having units with only a few hammers in them. I tried to whip as much as I could. There are also two chops coming in and the worker-turns are hard to time, without wasting worker-turns. Maybe it can be optimized a bit more. I was thinking of giving Marble the copper instead of Delhi for those few turns in the middle to see if that rounded out the last axe better, so another axe could get 2popped, yielding 2 more axes in succesion.
6. COttaging is not for my turnset, I dont' think.

LowtherCastle · Mar 21, 2012

One more detail on whipping 4>2. Some turns, it makes sense to wait a turn before whipping, while still at pop4, because that gives us +2h, for example, without slowing down re-growth. It also dealys the -1g unit cost increase by 1t. In GEL, I waited seeral turn to grow to pop5 because at pop2, we can only work the gold and the sheep, plus at pop3 we get to work the farm.

Mitchum · Mar 21, 2012

You've gone through great lengths to balance growth, whipping/production, chops, science, worker actions, etc. We could probably spend a few more days and eek out a few extra beakers or commerce, but it's probably not worth the work involved... Plus no one seems to want to do it..

At this point, I'm fine with you playing per your plan... as long as you spread Hinduism to NC for the +1

we need.

ZPV · Mar 21, 2012

The plan looks good to me. Good luck!

LowtherCastle · Mar 22, 2012

TURNSET REPORT T64-T70

Played to T70 per PPP.

Toku completed BW T65, revolted, T66, Osaka completed library T68.

Announcement: Hammy went WHEOOHRN on T68!!!

I played to T70 so we could see Hammy's graphs. I suppose we need to figure out what sort of WHEEOHRN this is and when he might attack us.

Save uploaded.

LowtherCastle · Mar 22, 2012

My WHEOOHRN understanding from this and this is that Hammy's war plan will be PREPARING for a set number of turns unless he's doing a DAGGER strategy.

WHether he's doing a DAGGER strategy is calculated using this:

Spoiler :

DanF5771 said:
The requirements for AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER are:

general:

not AI_STRATEGY_MISSIONARY

"early" in the game ( iCurrentEra <= (2+(iNonsense%2)) which means upto Medieval / Renaissance )

must have met others

must have iParanoia > 0 (due to the self-closeness bug this is always true after the AI has made contact with someone it is cautious or lower with)

Leader's personality:

MWR = MaxWarRand, FM = AI_FLAVOR_MILITARY, NF(NonsenseFactor) = (iNonsense % 11)/10 :

iDagger = 120 * 100/(MWR+50) * NF + 5 * Min(8, FM);

Example: Ragnar MWR = 50, FM = 10, Nidaros @ (X=30,Y=31) --> iNonsense = 30+31 = 61; NF = (61 % 11) / 10 = 0.6
iDagger = 120 * 100/(50+50) * 0.6 + 5 * Min(8, 10) = 72 + 40 = 112;

iDagger is further modified for military Unique Units (all except Indian Fast Worker):

-10 for defensive UUs (Mali Skirmisher, Babylon Bowman)

Capital can build UU?:

+40 (+10 for defensive UU)
+20 for each the UU is stronger than the replaced unit (WarChariot, Vulture, Praetorian, Cataphract, East Indiaman, no penalty for Jaguar)
+20 if UU has no PrereqTech (Incan Quechua)

Capital cannot build UU?:

+10 / +30 if PrereqTech is / is not known
+20 if AI has all required resources to build UU

AggAi off? +5 / +10 / +15 for Prince / Monarch / Emperor+

already at war (AREAAI_OFFENSIVE, AREAAI_DEFENSIVE)?

+40 if capital can build offensive units (UnitAIs: RESERVE, ATTACK_CITY, COUNTER, PILLAGE)

+20 if capital cannot build offensive units (-->AI_STRATEGY_GET_BETTER_UNITS)

CHECK: iDagger >= AI_DAGGER_THRESHOLD (100) --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER!

So all the warmongers with strong offensive UUs are likely to follow Dagger strategy until medieval/renaissance era.

Example1: Ragnar from above can build Berserkers in Nidaros, AggAI off Immortal difficulty, not at war
iDagger = 112 + 40 + 20*0 + 15 = 167 >= 100 --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER

Example2: Willem (MWR=100, FM=0), Amsterdam @(44,12) can build East Indiaman, AggAI off Deity difficulty, not at war
iDagger = 120 * 100/(100+50) * 0.1 + 5 * Min(8, 0) = 8 + 0 = 8; for personality
iDagger = 8 + 40 + 20*2 + 15 = 103 >= 100 --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER

Example3: Gandhi (MWR=400, FM=0), Delhi @(22,21), AggAI off Prince difficulty, currently fighting defensive war, can build Musketmen (UNITAI_RESERVE)
iDagger = 120 * 100/(400+50) * 1 + 5 * Min(8, 0) = 13 + 0 = 13; for personality
iDagger = 13 + 5 + 40 = 58 < 100 --> no Dagger

When it comes to war, IMHO the main effect of AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER is the skipping of the preparation phase, which means that Dagger-AIs that changed war plans to Limited or Total Wars will never call those plans off again (so Saladin was no Dagger in ALC#24). I'm not really sure about what determines the interval between the war plan change and the actual DoW (=you get WHEOOHRN before the war). I guess it depends on where their SoD is located and how long it takes to march it to your borders (DoW = crossing borders). If there are any obstacles in the SoD's path (like impassable mountains) it could be that the AI is locked in WHEOOHRN forever.

By my calcs, that would be

[{120 * 100/(100+50) * NF} + 5*8] -10 +10

= 80*NF + 40 < 100

So, if NF < .75 No DAGGER

So if ( x+y % 11)/10 < .75 , no DAGGER

ZPV, can you make a guestimate on Babylon(x,y) and then calculate that? (I don't know how to calculate modulos.)

If we can assume that Hammy's not in a DAGGER strategy, then we just need to konw how many turns his preparation phase is.

.

ZPV · Mar 22, 2012

LC: I'll look at the code directly, but I think you can forget the +40 - AI_FLAVOUR_MILITARY for toku is 2, so it would be 80*NF + 10 < 100 - i.e. 80*(something <=1) < 90, so no dagger.

LowtherCastle · Mar 22, 2012

ZPV said:
LC: I'll look at the code directly, but I think you can forget the +40 - AI_FLAVOUR_MILITARY for toku is 2, so it would be 80*NF + 10 < 100 - i.e. 80*(something <=1) < 90, so no dagger.

Good, then according to DanF's other post, we can't be a land target (LT), which means that either Hammy has another land target that pushed him into WHEOOHRN or this is the Total War Pass 3 situation. With AIs only having ~3 cities each, my guess is no land targets yet, so the question is what is the preparation time for Total War at Normal speed?

LowtherCastle · Mar 22, 2012

Another factor to codedive, ZPV, is how many units will he be satisfied with for DoW and under what conditions (TotPop, Tot#ofCities,...). I'm examining his power graph to determine what he's built and I'll make a report on that.

ZPV · Mar 22, 2012

LowtherCastle said:
Another factor to codedive, ZPV, is how many units will he be satisfied with for DoW and under what conditions (TotPop, Tot#ofCities,...). I'm examining his power graph to determine what he's built and I'll make a report on that.

Ok. I'll dig through the code in the next couple of hours.

LowtherCastle · Mar 22, 2012

Crazy detail: Neil gave Kyoto +4 :culture:

to start with and we missed stealing the worker at the sheep by 1 turn, because of Kyoto's 100 :culture:

border expansion. Is it possible that Neil actually calculated that out? Or did he just goof around with WB and was unable to "erase" the 4 :culture:

(which can't be erased once added)? Time will tell...

Mitchum · Mar 22, 2012

Nice work so far, LC!!

In my playing experience, it takes many turns between when an AI goes WHEOOHRN and the actual war declaration. I've seen DanF's posts but never taken the time to understand them. I'm just going by gut feel.

With that said, how many units do you think we'd need at the choke point to effectively hold him off? I'd think 2 or 3 fully fortified axes and a spear or two would hold off a fairly big stack.

Another point. My understanding is that the AI will only declare if the ratio of their power to our power meets a certain threshold. Since we're currently builidng units and barracks, our power is continually going up which will make this ratio harder to meet.

It's a good idea to dig into the code, but my gut tells me that we have time to build our stack for Toku and then build 3 to 5 more units after that initial SOD in time to hold off Hammy at the choke point.

Regarding the PPP, maybe Zlatorog should build units instead of a RAX right now.

Mitchum · Mar 22, 2012

I just looked at the save. Our power is going to go up quickly over the next several turns and should exceed Hammy's shortly. Both Hammy and Toku threaten with spearmen, by the way.

We've been very unlucky with religion spread. In the test game, I usually had spread in one if not two cities by this time every time I played. Can you please do something about that, LC?

SGOTM 15 - One Short Straw

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