Combat odds
- Thread starter mystyfly
- Start date
ParadigmShifter
Random Nonsense Generator
Yes it does.
The answer is it depends. Most likely not. Knight doesn't start with any inherent withdraw chance. If the ods when you hold over the unit you want to attack says 70% to withdraw x% to retreat 70+x is the real odds of surviving the combat. With 10% withdrawal chance from flanking 1 that is 73% chance of surviving. If it did say 70 + 10 then it would be 80%. Most likely it said 70 + 3 though.
just going by my experience, I think oyzar is right that the knight has a 73% chance of surviving rather than 80%.
Which means if the defenders are that weak, you're better off giving your knight a Combat promotion, which will probably bring the odds of winning up to more than 73%
Which means if the defenders are that weak, you're better off giving your knight a Combat promotion, which will probably bring the odds of winning up to more than 73%
KrikkitTwo
Immortal
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2004
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the % chance of retreat is shown 2x
1. in the promotions as its 'inherent chance' ie flanking 1=10%
2. in the mouse over when it lists both chance of dying+retreating
The second one displays the actual chance In this combat of Not dying
1. in the promotions as its 'inherent chance' ie flanking 1=10%
2. in the mouse over when it lists both chance of dying+retreating
The second one displays the actual chance In this combat of Not dying
qwertz
Prince
to clear the things out, here's a quote from the war academy 
Retreat
Retreat rolls happen when a round ends that would kill the attacker. In that case, a special role is made against the attackers retreat chance. If successful, the attacker retreats with the number of hps he had before that final, potentially killing round. The attackers chance of winning combat is never decreased by having retreat chances. They only come into play when the attacker would die.
Retreat has a few points. First, any attacker with an X% chance of retreating will always have a strictly greater than X% chance of surviving a combat. He could win (greater than 0), retreat (x*die_percent), or die. The second is that retreat can only occur for the attacker, not the defender. Third, retreat is most valuable when the attacker is less strong than the defender a catapult attacking a city, for example.
Example: A catapult (str:5) is attacking an archer(str:3) fortified in a city. The archer has +50% defense bonus for the city and 25% fortification bonus. The catapult has a 20% retreat chance (one Promotion). Attackers modified strength is 5. Defenders modified strength is 5.25. Without retreat, the catapult would win 34.7% of the time and die the other 65.3% of the time. With retreat, the odds of winning are still 34.7%, but 20% of that 65.3% is retreat (.2*.653). So, win 34.7%, retreat 13.1%, and die 52.2% (.8*.653) of the time.
Retreat
Retreat rolls happen when a round ends that would kill the attacker. In that case, a special role is made against the attackers retreat chance. If successful, the attacker retreats with the number of hps he had before that final, potentially killing round. The attackers chance of winning combat is never decreased by having retreat chances. They only come into play when the attacker would die.
Retreat has a few points. First, any attacker with an X% chance of retreating will always have a strictly greater than X% chance of surviving a combat. He could win (greater than 0), retreat (x*die_percent), or die. The second is that retreat can only occur for the attacker, not the defender. Third, retreat is most valuable when the attacker is less strong than the defender a catapult attacking a city, for example.
Example: A catapult (str:5) is attacking an archer(str:3) fortified in a city. The archer has +50% defense bonus for the city and 25% fortification bonus. The catapult has a 20% retreat chance (one Promotion). Attackers modified strength is 5. Defenders modified strength is 5.25. Without retreat, the catapult would win 34.7% of the time and die the other 65.3% of the time. With retreat, the odds of winning are still 34.7%, but 20% of that 65.3% is retreat (.2*.653). So, win 34.7%, retreat 13.1%, and die 52.2% (.8*.653) of the time.
to clear the things out, here's a quote from the war academy
...
Third, retreat is most valuable when the attacker is less strong than the defender a catapult attacking a city, for example.
...
IMO this is misleading. It ist true that the greatest probability of a retreat (and therefore the largest increase in survival probability) happens when the probability of losing is greatest, but this does not make it "most valuable".
A suicide attack with (say) a 1% win probability will have a higher retreat probability than an attack with a 60% win probability. But if the attacking unit does not produce collatoral damage I'd give more value to the smaller retreat odds. Of course, if I'm only attacking to produce collatoral damage, I'll take whatever retreat odds I can get. However, even when aiming for collatoral damage, I'd attack first with the unit with the greatest win probability.
RJM
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