SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

mabraham said:
When would you plan to DOW, though? Trebs are not the only thing we need, and longbows and elephants are useful over the whole course of the war. We need to defend the stack and not be invaded and have a distraction for Ragnar.

Ten turns after stealing Gunpowder and Nationalism, so we can have 1t of anarchy to switch to Nationhood and Theocracy, nine rounds of three drafts each, time to get the first waves of draftees to the front, when about half are there the DoW can be presented to the Eastern Witches 10t later. Since Engineering, Isengard is producing Trebuchets. If we have Physics, some Airships should be built. Some Port cities should start building Galleys now -> Galleons; Cities without Barracks can build Galleons, but all cities with Population 8 or higher should be represented in the draft and build a Barracks to be ready for it. Cities with Population 6 and 7 can also be drafted, but the Barracks build can be optional for cities drafting only 1-2 units; they will complete training in combat.

Sun Tzu Wu

Kaitzilla · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
No one else noticed or took it seriously.

Three posts and everyone on team should know its part of our future war plans?

It seems that only Kaitzilla, mabraham and you were aware of this war plan. How do you expect me to plan for it without better communication of it. There were no further posts from any of you expanding on the plan until very recently. Only today, did I find out that it was being taken seriously. Surely, you can't expect me to plan for something I thought was abandoned, assuming I even remembered the discussion of it which ended abruptly with post #2640.

Sun Tzu Wu

Ah, I am sorry :blush:

, I just figured war with the east witches was inevitable sooner or later with their closed borders. At normal speed, waiting too long to put the war into motion can be unfavorable. AI seem to build up units when they run out of space to expand. I am finding it difficult to express clearly why I think a war in 14 turns is our most favorable window of opportunity.

Can we win this game without a single war? Can we get 60% of the vote when we only have 10% of world population by ourself? Can we get all our proposed voters to like us more than the other guys on the ballot? Can we even ensure we chair the UN?
Every way I look at it, having 30% of the world population makes it far easier to win with UN than 10%.

Our advantages over our competitors is most probably our tremendous spying ability, controlling the AP, and our ruthless exploiting of bulbing to reach liberalism before the fast teching AI. I think a holy war and the taking of the East witches is perfectly suited to us winning a diplo victory with the North and West Witches' support. I have no idea where the Wizard is, but surely blimps with their abilities should have no trouble finding him. If we cannot kill him, then controlling a huge chunk of the world should put us in the drivers seat to taking him out as soon as possible.

We constantly bemoan we just don't have a city free to build this or that. Imagine having many more cities

I know I do.

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

shulec said:
We need to make sure that we don't spread our religion to Genghis' cites before we get the Holy War. We need to make sure we can win the vote. Elizabeth has quite a few votes. I did test it and unlike AP Religious Leader Diplo Victory votes, you can propose a Holy War when you have enough votes to do it on your own.

On T144, we have 142 votes and we need 132 votes for the holy war. We need to get Missionaries to Phants and Sheep before they go to Genghis.

Elizabeth has Toaism in all but two cities, both currently have populations of 2. There is a city that isn't visible that must have a pop of 9 and have Toaism based on the votes.

Elizabeth is also pleased with the East witches so we will get a You Declared War on Our Friend diplo hit.

In the test game it took me quite a bit of focus to get a single missionary to Genghis's border city before the AP vote for war, and our population is growing by 3-4 per turn. So I think we are reasonably comfortable in our vote chances. The worst thing that could happen is spontaneous spread to the East witches, but without OB that might be impossible. The next worst thing is someone defying the vote, so that's a good reason to not spread Taoism to Genghis before the war vote. If relevant, we can have our first missionaries head deep into Genghis territory, rather than his fringe cities.

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
Ten turns after stealing Gunpowder and Nationalism, so we can have 1t of anarchy to switch to Nationhood and Theocracy, nine rounds of three drafts each, time to get the first waves of draftees to the front, when about half are there the DoW can be presented to the Eastern Witches 10t later. Since Engineering, Isengard is producing Trebuchets. If we have Physics, some Airships should be built. Some Port cities should start building Galleys now -> Galleons; Cities without Barracks can build Galleons, but all cities with Population 8 or higher should be represented in the draft and build a Barracks to be ready for it. Cities with Population 6 and 7 can also be drafted, but the Barracks build can be optional for cities drafting only 1-2 units; they will complete training in combat.

Sun Tzu Wu

Yes, that's the general plan. The question is whether we wait until we steal those techs to start preparation. Since there are advantages to starting the war sooner (get our war allies, have enough votes to control the outcome of the AP vote, perhaps have an easy AP escape from the war if we need big tech, inhibit AIs from threatening Liberalism, maybe get a GG), I think we should do so. We plan to adapt ourselves to the availability of Eng, Nat and Gunpowder as opportunities present. We'll have to adapt ourselves to the wizard situation anyway.

Kaitzilla · Nov 14, 2011

I will add agreement that we should put off building any Globe Theatre for the time being. We are charismatic and have abundant happy resources. When building Globe for military reasons, I routinely whip units and overflow into Globe constantly until it is completed enough that I can whip it outright. Then I do horrible things to the city :lol:

I will agree that MoM is worth pursing.

I do not like attempting to tech Nationalism or Taj unless we have MoM built.

Getting Radio out of Liberalism is a huge deal. Getting that out of the way frees us to do as we please tech wise.

Kaitzilla · Nov 14, 2011

Does anyone know the odds of the other witches DOWing us when we attack the East Witches? We have borders touching with the North and West Witches. The South was ready to attack someone, possibly us at some point. Having us fighting two pairs of witches is the only real downside I can think of to our war plans, as it would really hurt diplo.

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

bcool said:
Voting members are also forced to join into a holy war. I have recently tested this.

Sorry, it must be only non-members that not obliged to join in, unless they are the target of the holy war.

We need to start the war before Taoist spreads too much, otherwise the vote may fail. Has anyone tested holy war votes? Can the TAP owner dominate the holy war vote and have it prevail unlike a DV vote? I think that is possible, but I'm not positive.

bcool said:
The next vote is in 4 turns. That is too early for us. However a holy war in 14 turns is possible.

The F8 Members Tab count down goes to 0 on the turn before the vote, so although it says 4 turns to the next vote, it is really effectively 5 turns. You can also test this on a test game; my record hasn't been so good on these details.

We can vote on a holy war in 5t or 15t from t144, thus either t149 or t159. We have a test in the real game of when the option occurs; I will make a note of which turn we are given the holy war option; we will then know our next option should be 10t later.

Sun Tzu Wu

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Kaitzilla said:
Ah, I am sorry , I just figured war with the east witches was inevitable sooner or later with their closed borders. At normal speed, waiting too long to put the war into motion can be unfavorable. AI seem to build up units when they run out of space to expand. I am finding it difficult to express clearly why I think a war in 14 turns is our most favorable window of opportunity.

Can we win this game without a single war? Can we get 60% of the vote when we only have 10% of world population by ourself? Can we get all our proposed voters to like us more than the other guys on the ballot? Can we even ensure we chair the UN?
Every way I look at it, having 30% of the world population makes it far easier to win with UN than 10%.

Our advantages over our competitors is most probably our tremendous spying ability, controlling the AP, and our ruthless exploiting of bulbing to reach liberalism before the fast teching AI. I think a holy war and the taking of the East witches is perfectly suited to us winning a diplo victory with the North and West Witches' support. I have no idea where the Wizard is, but surely blimps with their abilities should have no trouble finding him. If we cannot kill him, then controlling a huge chunk of the world should put us in the drivers seat to taking him out as soon as possible.

We constantly bemoan we just don't have a city free to build this or that. Imagine having many more cities I know I do.

Yeah I agree with all of this.

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Kaitzilla said:
Does anyone know the odds of the other witches DOWing us when we attack the East Witches? We have borders touching with the North and West Witches. The South was ready to attack someone, possibly us at some point. Having us fighting two pairs of witches is the only real downside I can think of to our war plans, as it would really hurt diplo.

Assuming we DOW right before the vote, North and West might not even have a chance to decide about this. It depends on the order in which the AP acts compared with the AIs.

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
We need to start the war before Taoist spreads too much, otherwise the vote may fail. Has anyone tested holy war votes? Can the TAP owner dominate the holy war vote and have it prevail unlike a DV vote? I think that is possible, but I'm not positive.

shulec covered this in 2712

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

shulec said:
I certainly wasn't planning war in 14 turns. I didn't realize we were planning to declare war at this point for the sole purpose of diplomacy. I do not believe this is a good idea unless we plan on making peace at the next vote.

There will be no long lasting diplomatic points gained, but it will hopefully ensure that the north and west witches will not give us a "you declared war on our friend" diplo hit.

We can choose the AP peace resolution to make peace with us and allow everyone else to stay at war. They will not make significant progress since they have not been building up their armies. We will likely be asked to join the war at a later time, at which time we must accept.

We can choose the AP peace resolution to make peace with the East Witches and allow everyone to become peaceful. This will sour relations with the east witches.

We either scenario, I am doubtful that we could snag a GG out of a short war.

If we do indeed go to war in 14 turns, yes, I would oppose a library in Isengard.

What shulec suggests above makes sense. Assuming we have enough votes we can stop the war against us while all other civs continue the war.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

mabraham said:
shulec covered this in 2712

Please provide the link. You are looking it up anyway to find the post #.

I try not to provide raw post numbers myself, but I have done so just recently, but I'm not proud of it. I try to make things as easy as possible for the readers of my posts.

Sun Tzu Wu

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
What shulec suggests above makes sense. Assuming we have enough votes we can stop the war against us while all other civs continue the war.

Sun Tzu Wu

Indeed, if things do not look good on the tech or war front, we have a decent escape route.

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
Please provide the link. You are looking it up anyway to find the post #.

I try not to provide raw post numbers myself, but I have done so just recently, but I'm not proud of it. I try to make things as easy as possible for the readers of my posts.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sure.

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
The need for Galleons is not directly related to whether or not Globe Theatre and six prerequisite Theatres is a good strategic move.

You can argue that the Hammers spent on Globe Theatre can be spent in many others ways too with some justification, but just because you can spent the Hammers for another useful thing doesn't by implication make Globe Theatre a poor to fair investment of hammers.

Sun Tzu Wu

mabraham said:
Diverting hammers is relevant because we are racing against a clock. We need many things before the war can start rolling - defenders for Cimmerian, trebs, airships, navy and we have other distractions also (missionaries for conversion, maybe some wonders). The 600 hammers required for the Globe Theatre would show a benefit over a period of time beginning with the third draft from GPfarm - since we'd draft at least two without GT. We would have to draft 80 hammer muskets 8 times to show a profit on raw hammers, and they still have to spend 5-10 turns to get to the front. Meanwhile the boats and supporting units that would have been built instead of those 600 hammers of buildings and wonders would be already near the front lines and ready to go.

The trade-off is connected to the length of time needed to show a benefit. There's a lag time of at least 8-10 turns for the first additional unit from a GT-drafted GPfarm to make a difference. Meanwhile we could have already conquered the first two cities if we had five trebs and three maces for those 600 hammers (assuming the same supporting units in each case). Getting the West and North to friendly is a race against time to get the diplo bonuses to add up, and I think a GT-based strategy assumes that length of time is large and that we need masses of units. I think our tech edge is quite comfortable, our tactical decisions will be great and our production capacity without GT at least on par with the AIs.

We are talking about Hammers that can be spent now on six Theatres and the Globe Theatre. We have the required Technology (Drama) right now.

We can't spend the same 600 (really 900) Hammers on five Trebuchets and three Macemen, because we do not have the required technologies of Engineering and Civil Service now.

Meanwhile we could have already conquered ...

Were you talking about the past, present, or future? Sounded like the past to me which didn't make any sense as I previously tried to explain. Using simpler sentence structure for us hillbillies might help.

Sun Tzu Wu

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

mabraham said:
Sure.

Don't bother to to provide as link to 2712. Here it is:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11045589&postcount=2712

Have good day!

Sun Tzu Wu

mabraham · Nov 14, 2011

Sun Tzu Wu said:
We are talking about Hammers that can be spent now on six Theatres and the Globe Theatre. We have the required Technology (Drama) right now.

We can't spend the same 600 (really 900) Hammers on five Trebuchets and three Macemen, because we do not have the required technologies of Engineering and Civil Service now.

OK. Some cities building theatres were building other things first, so they might have built trebs. Feel free to invent 600 hammers of trebs/maces/xbs/WE/pikes any way pleases you

Sun Tzu Wu said:
Were you talking about the past, present, or future? Sounded like the past to me which didn't make any sense as I previously tried to explain. Using simpler sentence structure for us hillbillies might help.

Sun Tzu Wu

I'm projecting a comparison of what could be happening 5-10 turns after a hypothetical GT finishes. Without that hypothetical GT we'd have 600 hammers more units sooner, so probably DOWed earlier and conquered a city or two more. With GT, those 600 hammers would not exist until after the GT drafted them, so the war would not have progressed as fast (or even started) as early.

Sun Tzu Wu · Nov 14, 2011

shulec said:
So the big question is are we going to go to war in 14 turns. From the last two pages, it looks like mabraham and bcool were making recommendations with the assumption that this was our plan based on the previously referenced posts. Kaitzilla hasn't weighed in again since he originally made the suggestion.

I think I understand from STW's posts that he wasn't making his PPP with a war planned for 14 turns. I also did not realize this.

War in 14 turns is such a major strategic move and carries significant risk. I think we need to have a discussion on how we start, maintain and end this war. Edit: ... or not end the war as mabraham suggests above.

I agree 100% with shulec's comments above.

Sun Tzu Wu

shulec · Nov 14, 2011

I now do feel comfortable with the plan to go to war based on the discussions above. We can certainly discuss exit strategies for the next turnset or two when we know more about our tech situation and that of the others.

shulec · Nov 14, 2011

Kaitzilla said:
Does anyone know the odds of the other witches DOWing us when we attack the East Witches? We have borders touching with the North and West Witches. The South was ready to attack someone, possibly us at some point. Having us fighting two pairs of witches is the only real downside I can think of to our war plans, as it would really hurt diplo.

I think it will not be high. Remember the team mechanics of getting a team to the point where they can bribe a war declaration? It requires both teammates be at the higher threshold for both teams. From looking at the diplo, the only team that seemed to be open to a war was the North witches. We had to have them both at pleased. Genghis is not pleased with the East witches.

If we do get backstabbed (unlikely), we will be able stop the war at the AP vote, instead of inciting a holy war. Or we still do the holy war, then vote for peace on the next vote. If we are backstabbed, there will not be any diplo hit since it isn't us declaring.

The East witches need to have techs that can be traded in the bribe. They are behind in tech and have nothing with which to bribe the other AI.

SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

Deity

Lord Croissant

Deity

Deity

Lord Croissant

Lord Croissant

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Grrrrr... I AM the force!

Grrrrr... I AM the force!

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