Russian-Belarussian merger?

ROME/BERLIN, December 10 (RIA Novosti) - Italian and German political analysts said they were surprised by Vladimir Putin's backing of a 'strong' presidential candidate, rather than a loyal supporter who would let him keep the reins of power.

Putin announced earlier today his support of First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as a candidate for the March 2, 2008 election. Given Putin's popularity and support of most of the legislature, his endorsement of his longtime ally is likely to guarantee Medvedev the presidency.

The candidate was officially proposed by the ruling United Russia party and three minor pro-Kremlin parties. Medvedev, 42, also chairs the board of directors of state-controlled natural gas giant Gazprom.

"This came as a real surprise for the West, which had expected Putin to propose a less weighty figure as presidential candidate," Roberto Menotti of Aspen Institute Italia said. "But he backed a strong candidate capable of taking on responsibility and making independent decisions."

Putin, while saying he will not violate the Constitution by remaining in the Kremlin for a third term, has pledged to retain influence in Russian politics. Various theories have been circulated in domestic and international media as to what position the president could opt for after the polls next year.

One of the scenarios was that Putin would back a weak successor with a view to returning to power within the next few years.

There was wide media speculation that Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, 66, who held no senior political posts until his appointment as prime minister in September, would assume the presidency in a setup where key powers would be transferred to a government led by Vladimir Putin.

Menotti said Putin's decision showed that he wanted his policy course and Russia's sustainable growth to be maintained.

"Dmitry Medvedev is known in the West as a politician as well as a business executive, as Gazprom chairman. He would continue consolidating ties between politics and economics, which is crucial for the country's development," he said.

A senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Studies, Michael Emerson, said Medvedev was the most liberal figure in the Kremlin.

Alexander Rahr, a leading German expert on Russia, agreed that the nomination was a surprise, but said it sent a positive signal to the world that Russia would stick to its free-market aspirations.

"Medvedev's nomination is undoubtedly a surprise, as Western analysts had believed Putin would pick a tougher candidate from his retinue of 'siloviki'. But the surprise was a pleasant one, as Medvedev is not one of the group of ex-KGB officers, but a champion of the free market."

Another first deputy premier who had been widely tipped for the presidency was ex-defense minister Sergei Ivanov, 54, who is currently in charge of state-controlled aircraft-building and shipbuilding corporations formed recently to boost the industries.

Rahr said: "I believe Medvedev could be quite a strong president, and scenarios under which Putin would return to power, as predicted by Western analysts, are unlikely." However, the Kremlin's security bloc will not give away its positions easily, he said.

Last week's reports cited sources in the Belarusian president's administration as saying Putin could head the union Russia and Belarus have been trying to establish since 1997 after he steps down as president. The Kremlin dismissed the reports as "speculative fantasies."

Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said on Monday Putin was likely to hold a referendum on merging the two ex-Soviet neighboring states soon after nominating Medvedev, and would head the union state once the idea was backed. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko would be parliamentary speaker in the new state, according to earlier media reports.

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RedRalphWiggum said:

AFAIK, Lukashenko is actually farily warm on the idea, he obviously knows hes going to play second fiddle, but Its fair to say Belarus would benefit a lot more than Russia would.

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The Yankee said:

I wouldn't doubt that Belarus could profit, but I'm always skeptical that Lukashenko types would be offering to bow to someone else.

Almost makes me think of the ill-fated United Arab Republic.

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RedRalphWiggum said:

AFAIK, Lukashenko is actually farily warm on the idea, he obviously knows hes going to play second fiddle, but Its fair to say Belarus would benefit a lot more than Russia would.

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Winner said:

Medvedev, that fits. If I am not mistaken, "medved" means "bear"

Seriously, about the Russia-Belarus thing. They've been talking about it since Lukashenko seized power in Belarus. Basically, he believed that he could be the president of this Russia-Belarus federation. Putin of course laughed the idea. Now, he might change his mind, if it was him who would become the president. Of course this time Lukashenko will probably be the one who will oppose the idea.

I don't think it will happen, but in Russia, everything is possible.

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Resi X said:

Key word being almost. At least you could say Syria and Egypt were more or less equals, or close to being equals. I mean, Syria was the junior member, but in a Union of Belarus and Russia, Belarus would become little more then a de facto republic of Russia.

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Resi X said:

Key word being almost. At least you could say Syria and Egypt were more or less equals, or close to being equals. I mean, Syria was the junior member, but in a Union of Belarus and Russia, Belarus would become little more then a de facto republic of Russia.

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The Yankee said:

Equals? Far from it, even if enough lip service were paid. Egypt had the advantage over Syria with Nasser and by demographics and strength. The United Arab States with North Yemen wasn't much different. Everything was in Cairo.

Of course, Russia completely blows away Belarus, but the same dynamic is at work, if Putin does head this hypothetical union.

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Winner said:

Belarus is of no concern to Lukashenko. All he cares about is his own power and how to keep it. Joining Russia wouldn't create a real federation of two countries, Russia would simply annex Belarus and make it its province, sooner or later. Lukashenko, if he's smart enough, understands that he'd evetually lose all the power and become just a figurehead for the new Moscow regime.

Belarussians themselves are likely to oppose being oppressed by Moscow again.

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RedRalphWiggum said:

True. Egypt was the senior partner in the UAR, but not in any way shape or from to the degree Russia would be in a merger with Belarus.

I see no problem with it. I'm sure the Poles will freak out, but thats not Russias problem.

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The Yankee said:

I don't think it'll matter all that much if Belarus got sucked in by Moscow, except the thought of something between Poland and Russia appears to me. Unless someone points to me that Belarus somehow has control over some very vital supplies (and that it isn't already in the Russian camp), I'd have to conclude it that way.

At least for the year it happens, Russia will show a population increase.

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Resi X said:

Belarus has some oil pipelines running through it from Russia into Europe.

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RedRalphWiggum said:

Winner.... come on. that posts reads like something Bush or Brown would say. whats your source on Belarussians not liking Russia?

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RedRalphWiggum said:

True. Egypt was the senior partner in the UAR, but not in any way shape or from to the degree Russia would be in a merger with Belarus.

I see no problem with it. I'm sure the Poles will freak out, but thats not Russias problem.

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Resi X said:

No, Poland is a member of Nato and the EU. You would need a complete breakdown of the world for Russia to even think about reclaiming it.

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