Did smallpox precede the conquerors? Peru
Did smallpox strike Peru before the arrival of Europeans? This hypothesis
has achieved the status of an incontrovertible historical event. But the foundations
of the theory of a Peruvian epidemic in the 1520s—years before Pizarro
set foot in the country—are, at best, weak. Let us review the trail of smallpox
after its certain arrival in Santo Domingo in December 1518 (Figure 1). It
spread immediately to nearby Puerto Rico and then to Cuba; in April or May
of 1520 it was carried to Mexico by Narvaez’s expedition, sent by the governor
of Cuba to restrain the independent and successful Cortés. It was in
Cempoala (near Veracruz) that “when the companions of Narvaez landed,
there was also a black man sick of smallpox who infected those who had
given hospitality to him in their house, and then an Indio passed it to another
Indio; because many slept and ate together, the plague propagated in
such a short time that it continued to kill throughout the region” (López de
Gómara [1552]2001: 233). Smallpox traveled inland to Tepeaca and Tlaxcala
and finally reached the valley of Mexico in September–October and struck
Tenochtitlán, killing Cuitláhuac, successor to Montezuma. It raged for two
months in the valley and then wore off, traveling to Chalco (Sahagún
[1938]1977: 136–137). The Spaniards were certainly helped in the siege of
Tenochtitlán by the disarray caused by the epidemic. The continuation of its
path is uncertain, although it is plausible the disease diffused to the rest of
Mexico through the radial web of the trading routes departing from
Tenochtitlán. It may have reached Yucatan; Diego de Landa, writing in the
1560s, refers to a disastrous plague that had hit the country “more than 50
years before,” which could have been smallpox (Landa [1881]1968: 57).
Did smallpox continue its course southward, to Central America, the
Caribbean mainland, and beyond? High mortality was recorded in Guatemala,
in 1519–21, before the expedition of Pedro de Alvarado. The only
certainty derives from a 1527 document stating that slaves had to be brought
to Panama, Nata, and the port of Honduras because smallpox had decimated
the Indians (Newson 1986: 128). Is it true to say that in Panama historical
evidence ends? “Southward in the great Andean cordillera that stretches
along the entire western coast of South America, the heartland of the great
Inca Empire, the first great smallpox pandemic ravaged Amerindian peoples.
As in the example of Aztec Mexico, where the ruler Cuitláhuac succumbed
to the foreign infection, the Inca ruler Huayna Capac fell victim to a hideous
alien disease” (Cook 1998: 72). Huayna Capac died, presumably, between
1525 and 1527; a long and furious civil war followed between two
of his sons: Huascar, his legitimate heir in Cuzco; and Atahualpa, lord of
Quito. When Pizarro took Atahualpa prisoner in Cajamarca, the conflict
was practically over, with Huascar’s final defeat following shortly after. What
the Spaniards found was a population exhausted by a long war. Had it, like
Mexico, also been depleted by smallpox?
The historical evidence is very thin, being primarily based on the accounts
of the death of Huayna Capac written by Juan de Betanzos and Cieza
de León a quarter-century after the event (Cook 1998: 76). Both of them
had a wide experience of Peru and are credible witnesses of the Peruvian
events. Betanzos does not mention the word “smallpox” but talks about
“sarna” and “lepra,” cutaneous diseases that others have interpreted as “verruga
peruana” (Bartonellosis), an indigenous disease transmitted by the
sandfly.22 Cieza de León mentions smallpox (viruela) and adds that the contagion
killed 200,000 people (Cieza de León [1880]1988: 194). Betanzos
and Cieza had to rely on the native accounts of past events; moreover, the
definition of diseases, when not based on the direct observation of symptoms,
was often generic. It is an attractive hypothesis that a single smallpox
pandemic, initiated in the Caribbean and continuing in Mexico and perhaps
Central America, would cross the isthmus and spread to South
America—or, alternatively, could reach the Atlantic coast of South America
by sea—undermining the great Inca Empire. Attractive does not mean plausible,
however. This hypothesis postulates that smallpox could travel thousand
of miles spreading by face-to-face contact, through lands sparsely
settled, in humid climates and surviving the rainy seasons (the virus does
not thrive in humid climates), over mountain chains and deserted stretches
of land. Epidemiologists would characterize this hypothesis as improbable,
if not impossible. And until new evidence is gathered, smallpox must be
absolved of guilt for such an early South American catastrophe.
