The Importance of Voting

Fifty · Oct 21, 2004

http://slate.msn.com/id/2107240/?GT1=5472

We might be headed for another close election, which means your vote could really matter this time, right? Wrong. Your vote didn't matter in 2000, it never mattered before 2000, and it's very unlikely to start mattering now.

Last time around, everything came down to Florida, where Bush's official margin was 537 votes. (Yes, yes, I know, if they'd been counted differently there'd have been a different margin and perhaps a different outcome. But that's not what this column is about.) If any one of Florida's 6 million voters had stayed home, Bush's margin would have been 536 or 538 votes, and he'd still have won. Even if you voted in the most hotly disputed state in the mostly hotly disputed election in American history, your vote did not change the outcome.

Your individual vote will never matter unless the election in your state is within one vote of a dead-even tie. (And even then, it will matter only if your state tips the balance in the electoral college.) What are the odds of that? Well, let's suppose you live in Florida and that Florida's 6 million voters are statistically evenly dividedmeaning that each of them has (as far as you know) exactly a 50/50 chance of voting for either Bush or Kerrythe statistical equivalent of a coin toss. Then the probability you'll break a tie is equal to the probability that exactly 3 million out of 6 million tosses will turn up heads. That's about 1 in 3,100roughly the same as the probability you'll be murdered by your mother.

And that's surely a gross overestimate of your influence, because it assumes there's no bias at all in your neighbors' preferences. Even a slight change in that assumption leads to a dramatic change in the conclusion. If Kerry (or Bush) has just a slight edge, so that each of your fellow voters has a 51 percent likelihood of voting for him, then your chance of casting the tiebreaker is about one in 10 to the 1,046th powerapproximately the same chance you have of winning the Powerball jackpot 128 times in a row.

For those of us who live in New York State, the situation is far worse. Last time around, about 6.5 million votes were cast for major party candidates in New York state and 63 percent of them went to Al Gore. Assuming an electorate of similar size with a similar bias, my chance of casting the deciding vote in New York is about one in 10 to the 200,708th power. I have a better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot 7,400 times in a row than of affecting the election's outcome. Which makes it pretty hard to see why I should vote.

The traditional reply begins with the phrase "But if everyone thought like that ... ." To which the correct rejoinder is: So what? Everyone doesn't think like that. They continue to vote by the millions and tens of millions.

Even for the most passionate partisan, it's hard to argue that voting is a good use of your time. Instead of waiting in line to vote, you could wait in line to buy a lottery ticket, hoping to win $100 million and use it to advance your causesand all with an almost indescribably greater chance of success than you'd have in the voting booth.

Do you guys agree with the conclusions of this article? Personally I have decided not to vote because of it! Unless of course you guys can convince me otherwise!

BasketCase · Oct 21, 2004

Your vote only counts as part of the greater whole (i.e. the voting public).

I'm not voting this November either, because Kodos isn't on the ballot.

Strider · Oct 21, 2004

It's democracy, one person does not matter as much as a community. Get use to it.

Fifty · Oct 21, 2004

Then, for those of you who vote, in light of the fact that your vote does not really matter, why do you vote?

HighlandWarrior · Oct 22, 2004

you're that easily swayed not to vote? I guess you shouldn't vote then, you might vote for the wrong guy

Fifty · Oct 22, 2004

Well if you're going to imply that I am swayed by an article that is incorrect in its conclusions, please enlighten me as to why!

Evie · Oct 22, 2004

But your vote does matter.

Oh, sure, in itself, it won't decide who wins the election, most likely. But what if 50 people decides not to vote "because their vote do not matter?" 500? 1000?

One single vote won't change the world, BUT it does matter, because it will be part of a thousand other votes, and that thousand CAN change the world. More to the point, your vote matters because if there's no reason for YOU to vote, then nobody should vote, and we should just go back to a monarchy, after all, according to you and the article's author, "voting doesn't matter"!.

Birdjaguar · Oct 22, 2004

They miss the point entirely. Voting is not about casting the deciding vote. It's about participating. Hopefully voters make an informed decision. Ideally its about dialog and discussion and reaching conclusions based on some sort of understanding.

Fifty · Oct 22, 2004

Oda Nobunaga said:
But your vote does matter.

Oh, sure, in itself, it won't decide who wins the election, most likely. But what if 50 people decides not to vote "because their vote do not matter?" 500? 1000?

One single vote won't change the world, BUT it does matter, because it will be part of a thousand other votes, and that thousand CAN change the world. More to the point, your vote matters because if there's no reason for YOU to vote, then nobody should vote, and we should just go back to a monarchy, after all, according to you and the article's author, "voting doesn't matter"!.

As the article states, what you are saying has no relevence. I'm talking about my vote not mattering. The old hypothetical "what if everyone decided their vote didn't matter" has absolutly no relevence because we aren't talking about everyone, we're talking about me.

Fifty · Oct 22, 2004

Birdjaguar said:
They miss the point entirely. Voting is not about casting the deciding vote. It's about participating. Hopefully voters make an informed decision. Ideally its about dialog and discussion and reaching conclusions based on some sort of understanding.

So take me, who is much more politically informed then I'd say at least 75% of the voting population. What is my reason for voting if the key is participation? I have participated, I know where I stand. As the article says, the odds of me affecting my political views by voting are less then the odds of me winning the lotto and giving the money to causes that I support.

stormbind · Oct 22, 2004

Oda Nobunaga said:
.. if there's no reason for YOU to vote, then nobody should vote, and we should just go back to a monarchy, after all, according to you and the article's author, "voting doesn't matter"!.

You know, they voted under that monarchy. I'm not sure how far, but you will have to go back even further to completely get away from voting. By-elections were held back in the time of Prime Minister Robert Walpole (from 1721) but I'm not sure of the details.

Colonel · Oct 22, 2004

This is the third or so thread about this. Heres what I say, YOUR VOTE MATTERS and this is why. These people all of them not just this site have a few million people reading this and a significant percent listen to this and don't vote that could be anywhere fromm 100,000 or 10,000 people not voteing who would have had they not read or heard this, and as the article pointed out the margin in florida in 2000 was 537, so if 6 or 7 hundred people in florida read that and don't vote, that could have swayed the vote in either direction. so if you can legally vote
REGISTER AND VOTE

Birdjaguar · Oct 22, 2004

Monk said:
So take me, who is much more politically informed then I'd say at least 75% of the voting population. What is my reason for voting if the key is participation? I have participated, I know where I stand. As the article says, the odds of me affecting my political views by voting are less then the odds of me winning the lotto and giving the money to causes that I support.

If your reason for voting is to cast the deciding vote in an election then don't bother. If your goal is to participate, then by voting you have achieved your goal and the out come is secondary. If your goal is to elect a specific candidate (or candidates) then by voting for them, you have achieved your goal. In our republic voting is a group enterprise. We all vote and weigh the results to decide the winner. In theory you don't want a one vote victory; you want a majority decision. You votes counts as one of many for the winner or loser. Your vote is subservient to the collective will.

Now we could increase participation if, by voting you were entered into a lottery for a bunch of money. The prizes would come, naturally, from the campaign warchests of the political parties. I'd have lots of $1000 prizes and a few $100,000 ones.

BasketCase · Oct 22, 2004

I am already participating by refusing to vote. I'm not well-enough informed about my local candidates (i.e. Congress etc.) to vote for them, and I genuinely do not consider either Bush or Kerry to be a threat to the nation. I am unconcerned which of those two gets into office (my sig is simply part of the current CFC trend, which is to post offensive politically based sigs for no reason than to ruffle feathers

).

My blank ballot is my vote. My decision has been rendered. Should make the ballots a little easier to tally when the results are disputed and the hand recounts begin..... :lol:

Fifty · Oct 22, 2004

Colonel said:
This is the third or so thread about this. Heres what I say, YOUR VOTE MATTERS and this is why. These people all of them not just this site have a few million people reading this and a significant percent listen to this and don't vote that could be anywhere fromm 100,000 or 10,000 people not voteing who would have had they not read or heard this, and as the article pointed out the margin in florida in 2000 was 537, so if 6 or 7 hundred people in florida read that and don't vote, that could have swayed the vote in either direction. so if you can legally vote

Like others, you are falling for the common fallacy. I'm not talking about the collective effect of the article. I'm talking about ME and only ME personally. Of course that ME applies to anyone, but as ME personally, you have still failed to show how my vote matters.

Elgalad · Oct 22, 2004

Taking part in the election process is both a moral duty and a civic responsibility. It is true that statistics can show one single vote matters little in virtually every election, but that is not the point. Instead of looking at it as your only way to influence the outcome of the election, look at it as a statement in support of Democracy and Society itself.

There are many reasons why you should feel it necessary to vote:

1) It proves to you and all who know you are voting that we live in a Free society and that We control our government, it does not control us. :king:

2) Celebrating our Freedom is one of the strongest weapons we have against Terrorists and other criminals and tyrants who see our society as a target. Their goal is to take away our right to decide our future. Every ballot cast is a slap in their face. :whipped:

3) When you are planning to vote, you as a citizen will probably become more interested in the politics behind the various candidates and will try to learn more about the different policies that affect our nation and the world. More knowledge is always a good thing!

4) You may not realize it, but if you intend to vote you will also be much more inclined to seek out the opinions of others around you (friends, family, coworkers, even strangers) regarding the election and discuss the election with them. Your opinion might be just enough to change someone else's vote by your presentation of your candidate(s)!

5) You have a duty to exercise the Freedom to cast your vote because that Freedom was earned countless times by brave men and women who gave their lives so that you could do so. :salute:

6) You have a responsibility to your children, and their children, ad infinitum to make your dreams for the future a reality and to leave them a society at least as good as your own, preferably better. :wavey:

7) It's fun! And most polling places (at least the ones I've been to) have cookies and other treats, but best of all.. sweet little old ladies and gentlemen who monitor the voting and make sure the ballots are handled properly. They Love to chat with voters, and hey, they're all neighbors too. :thanx:

8) The nastiest reasons of all: If you don't vote.. You've just given half of your vote to the candidate you hate most. And you really shouldn't complain when your candidate loses, cause you Had your chance, so Shut up already! :lol:

So please vote on November 2nd, it's the Right thing to do! :thumbsup:

-Elgalad

Fifty · Oct 22, 2004

Birdjaguar said:
If your reason for voting is to cast the deciding vote in an election then don't bother. If your goal is to participate, then by voting you have achieved your goal and the out come is secondary. If your goal is to elect a specific candidate (or candidates) then by voting for them, you have achieved your goal. In our republic voting is a group enterprise. We all vote and weigh the results to decide the winner. In theory you don't want a one vote victory; you want a majority decision. You votes counts as one of many for the winner or loser. Your vote is subservient to the collective will.
.

What do you mean by participation? How is voting any sort of participation? My personal vote does not achieve any end whatsoever. Like I said, I participate in politics in the sense that I have an awareness of key issues and canidates, but that does not in any way change the fact that my vote does not matter. You say that "If your goal is to elect a specific canidate, then by voting for them, you have achieved your goal". That is not true! I have not affected the outcome of the race in any way whatsoever by voting for that person, unless the election were determined by exactly one vote. I understand the viewpoint that "if everyone said their vote didn't matter then it WOULD have an effect". I'm not saying "if everyone said their vote didn't matter" i'm saying that MY and MY vote only does not matter. That also means that YOUR vote doesn't matter. I don't mean "you" as in all of CFC, I just mean YOU whoever is reading this sentence at this exact moment. YOUR VOTE DOESN'T MATTER!

Edit:
Perhaps an easy way of seeing it is, imagine that I vote in every election I possibly could. Then imagine if I had not voted in any of those elections, would the outcome have changed at all? Of course birdjaguar would say its the participation that counts, but what participation? If I am politically aware and vote, what is the difference from being politically aware and not voting?

Ayatollah So · Oct 22, 2004

Birdjaguar said:
If your reason for voting is to cast the deciding vote in an election then don't bother. If your goal is to participate, then by voting you have achieved your goal and the out come is secondary.

Birdjaguar hits the nail on the head (as usual). Voting isn't a solitary action, it's a collective action. By voting, you act as an honest and cooperative member of your group, whether that group is your political party, or a collection of people with similar politics, or We the People (suggested answer: all of the above).

It's a bit like participating in a club. If you want to do so, you ought to pay your dues. You might not have to - you might be able to get away with not paying them, without anyone noticing - but you ought to.

Stefan Haertel · Oct 22, 2004

Just vote. It doesn't hurt, you know.

Marla_Singer · Oct 22, 2004

Monk, tell me which one you want the less between Bush and Kerry, and then, tell me in which state you live. Once I will get those informations, I'll be better place to advise whether you should vote.

Ok, more seriously, everyone has already told enough about it. You're not the only one to decide and that's pretty good knowing that in your quality of US citizen above 18, you're not more important than all your fellows. The one who should determine who should become President is the US people, not you. You're just part of the people and in voting the point is not to behave differently than as a part of the people.

If I insist it should be the US people, it's of course because it's not the case today.

The Importance of Voting

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