SGOTM 15 - One Short Straw

Good point on the OrgRel bonus, Dhoom. I just did a quick calc and it only saves us 2t on the GLib. Mono will take us an extra 4-5t, I think, so it slows us down.
Yeah, it slows us down if we only have Hinduism in that City, but if we get Hinduism elsewhere, we could feasibly use Marble or Stone and Org Rel Hammers for even more Failure Gold... assuming that there are any Wonders remaining which an AI will beat us to. ;)


Your whole T60, T61, T62 thing... are those the dates that Marble City gets settled or something else that happens on those turns?
 
To me, the only other alternative would be to research IW, which I seem to like a whole lot more than Dhoom. For example, an axe has 20-something odds against a fortified archer in Osaka, whereas a sword has to be well over 50%, since the archer only shows 5-something adjusted strength against the axe in my testing.
The part that I don't like about self-teching Iron Working is the same thing that you don't like about self-teching Polytheism... there is a good chance that we'll get it elsewhere or else will get it cheaper via piggy-back research. Now, if you can make a case for saying something like: "we can tech Iron Working quickly enough that if we mostly build Catapults first and then Swords instead of Axes at the end, assuming that Iron is revealed," then I'm okay with trying for Iron Working after Hunting.

If, however, we won't really have time to get more than maybe 1 Swordsman into the battles versus Toku, then sure, let's stick with going for Aesthetics at a 0% Science Rate after learning Hunting.
 
OK. I'm fine with researching Aesthetics next at 0%.

@LC

I'm having trouble figuring out which test run in your table is mine. I settled Marble City on T61 but the numbers in your table don't match my save. For example, my save has hammers in a barracks. Now, if we never plan to build one there, these are wasted but IIRC, 3 of the initial units for the Toku war came from Delhi. If we don't plan to build a barracks there for some time, then maybe it makes sense to wait until Pottery, one turn on granary, whip settler, finish granary. Is that what your T62 save did?

I'm also a bit confused about which of the three options you're proposing. Are you proposing the T61 option and then telling me how to adapt my plan to accomplish your T61?

I'm not crazy about the road network in the north of Delhi. Was this for the purpose of getting the Candhi worker over to help chop the Delhi granary? I'd rather he stay around Candhi and chop the granary there and then build a farm. The sooner that city grows the sooner we can 2-pop the library.

I'm fine with using the Zlatorog worker to chop Delhi's granary rather than camping the deer. That lets us run science at 0% on Hunting while accumulating gold. No need to research anything until we need it or have enough beakers saved up to research the following tech: Aesthetics, MC or IW. BTW, I like swords with a couple of axe stack defenders myself too.

Regarding where to put the rax, Delhi won't be building the GLib for many, many turns. It will have a lot of time to build units, barracks, whatever before we learn Literature. EDIT: I had built forges everywhere in my game while waiting for the GSs to be born... I'm not sure what we'll build without MC. More units, I guess. :ar15:

I'm fine with losing the hammers in the warrior. That was insurance in case Toku didn't man up and kill the barb archer for us, which it looks like he's going to do. So Candhi would go partial library -> granary -> library, right?

I prefer the road at deer-2S. If we put it at deer-1S, we prevent the deer forest spreading to that tile. At least I think roads prevent forest growth...

So, in my mind, the current open items are:

1. On which turn do we whip the settler and what do we build for the one turn of +6F to 26/28, barracks or granary?
2. Final tweaking on the workers actions and where/when to build roads.
3. If we're not going to build a camp, Hunting at 0% prevents us from having to choose our next tech and allows us to keep building warriors anywhere, so that isn't an open item and shouldn't be on this list. :lol:
4. Do we want a barracks in GEL? Delhi?

Regarding the workers, can the worker that is going to help build the Delhi/Marble road build the road from south to north rather than north to south? That way, he can build a partial farm for Candhi rather than partial roads that we don't really need right away.

My head is spinning at the moment. I'm sure that it's obvious from my circular chatter above. :crazyeye:

Tomorrow is a bad day for me. I'll be gone from 10 to 5... Fore!! I'm also out Friday through Monday. So, it's either play some turns tomorrow night or Thursday or I'll have to swap back with Dhoomstrker. And I thought this would be a quick turnset. :mischief:
 
Mitchum said:
I'm not crazy about the road network in the north of Delhi. Was this for the purpose of getting the Candhi worker over to help chop the Delhi granary? I'd rather he stay around Candhi and chop the granary there and then build a farm.
Don't forget that Nature's Chandi can use a GH Mine from Delhi, so there is no rush on getting a Farm going, particularly if we're still working on completing a Granary.


Mitchum said:
I like swords with a couple of axe stack defenders myself too.
Maybe Toku has the only Iron... underneath of his capital? Or has he still not yet researched Bronze Working, meaning that Copper could still be under his capital?


Mitchum said:
I'm fine with using the Zlatorog worker to chop Delhi's granary rather than camping the deer.
Eh? If we're not camping the Deer right away, then we should at least be Chopping a Granary for Zlatorog. I don't see why we need to delay getting that City up and running.

I'd rather improve a Deer (by Zlatorog) than Farm a bare Grassland square (by Chandi) if we're talking Worker action trade offs.


Only 1 Barracks maximum. We need to get our war started. I'd stick with the Barracks in Delhi and a partial Warrior in GEL, as long as it won't be longer than 10 turns before we would start building the Spearman that the queue will upgrade the Warrior into (as long as the Warrior stays in the build queue).

LC said that he didn't like whipping pre-Granary, but I think that there are some exceptions... Settler-whipping in your capital, for one, and whipping a citizen that isn't working an improved square when whipping a Granary also qualifies, in my book... which is what I suggest that we do in GEL, which would get us our Granary shortly after completing The Oracle... 2 or 3 turns after we Chop into The Oracle, we can Chop the Forest NW + N of GEL and then can 1-pop whip the Granary at a convenient time.

In other words, we should be able to keep the Hammers that we invested in that Warrior and complete a Spearman... it may not be amazing but if there is even 1 Chariot, it will be an invaluable unit to have.


Mitchum said:
I'm fine with losing the hammers in the warrior.
For the Chandi Warrior, I'm okay with that if my Warrior-whipping idea fails, but have we tried out my Warrior-whipping idea (I haven't had the time yet)? It will be extremely nice to have a few more Warriors to play with.


Mitchum said:
So Candhi would go partial library -> granary -> library, right?
That could work, except that we'd insert a whipped after the Granary (after the Library catches any overflow Hammers for 1 turn first).


Mitchum said:
At least I think roads prevent forest growth...
Roads halve the chance of a Forest growing on a square. However, while a unit is building a Road or when a military unit is marching down that Road and stops on that square, you will have a unit on that square, which completely prevents Forest growth.

So, the reality is that it more than halves the chance, thanks to the units standing there and blocking the Forest growth chances.


Interesting point about no Hunting = Warriors anywhere, but I still really want to get Zlatorog off of the ground sooner than later. We have enough Forests to get it a Granary ASAP. The sooner that we can grow into working some of those GHRiv squares, the sooner that it will be able to help our war effort.

It is arguable even that we should Camp the Deer then Chop a Forest and then have the Worker that was Chopping Delhi's Forest come and Chop a second Forest, if doing so will get us the second Chop around the same time as the first Chop, giving us more stored Food when we grow to Size 2.


I'm soon going to be out of town, so I don't foresee myself having time to play a proper turnset.
 
Yeah, it slows us down if we only have Hinduism in that City, but if we get Hinduism elsewhere, we could feasibly use Marble or Stone and Org Rel Hammers for even more Failure Gold... assuming that there are any Wonders remaining which an AI will beat us to. ;)
Excellent point, whether we research Mono or not! The Temple of Artemis might still be incomplete and that could be partially built in Delhi while waiting for Literature.

Furthemore, if teching Literature puts our research of Alpha+MC behind schedule we could also put a couple of simultaneous (1t only) Kyoto or Asoko chops into the GLib for a quick 120 (or 150 w/OrgRel) failed gold.

------------

Edit: Dang, Dhoom, now you got me thinking. A chop or two into the ToA could really speed up Literature seriously.
 
I'm having trouble figuring out which test run in your table is mine.
Sorry. I made it unclear. I've clarified that post.
my save has hammers in a barracks. Now, if we never plan to build one there, these are wasted but IIRC, 3 of the initial units for the Toku war came from Delhi.
Let's put the hammers into a Delhi barracks, but I doubt we want to finish it before the Kyoto assault, because it would slow it down too much. We'll still have 60t to complete it.
I'm also a bit confused about which of the three options you're proposing. Are you proposing the T61 option and then telling me how to adapt my plan to accomplish your T61?
Yes. I've renamed them but the answer to your question is yes. I'm proposing we adapt your plan, ST59, to the ST60 plan. Marble is settled T61 either way.

I'm not crazy about the road network in the north of Delhi. Was this for the purpose of getting the Candhi worker over to help chop the Delhi granary? I'd rather he stay around Candhi and chop the granary there and then build a farm. The sooner that city grows the sooner we can 2-pop the library.
Let me first clarify that we cannot 2-pop the Chandi library because we won't have time to grow back up to pop4. Instead, we chop + 1-pop the granary from pop3>pop2, then we outside-culture 1chop the library and work the mine growing from pop3 to pop4. Then we hire two sci immediately. I'm not sure how soon we'll need the farm after that, but I think we'll have time to finish it after the two chops.

Back to your question, my main reason for roading NE is to connect Chandi to Delhi asap for +1TR and Hindu spread. That road also connects to our military road network with no wasted roads (e.g., toward Marble City). The first Pigs worker roads Chandi-1NE (1t) on the way to road Delhi-1SE (T60). The second Pigs worker only roads Chandi-1NE and Chandi-2NE, then is able to return to chop Chandi-1E without wasting turns. Then one of the Delhi-2N choppers completes the road connection to Delhi at Delhi-1NW.

Now, I'm absolutely not insisting on this road segment at this juncture. There might be better solutions to the general problem. I'm just trying to build our TradeRoute/ReligionSpread/MilitaryRoad network with the minimal effort while achieving all our other goals, so our workers will be free to chop and improve later on. The road network also allows our workers and units to move around rapidly, of course.

Regarding where to put the rax, Delhi won't be building the GLib for many, many turns. It will have a lot of time to build units, barracks, whatever before we learn Literature. EDIT: I had built forges everywhere in my game while waiting for the GSs to be born... I'm not sure what we'll build without MC. More units, I guess. :ar15:
Good point on the rax. Unless we have time to put failed gold into the ToA, I agree that rax+units would be excellent for Delhi.

So Candhi would go partial library -> granary -> library, right?
Right.

I prefer the road at deer-2S. If we put it at deer-1S, we prevent the deer forest spreading to that tile. At least I think roads prevent forest growth...
Good point.

So, in my mind, the current open items are:

1. On which turn do we whip the settler and what do we build for the one turn of +6F to 26/28, barracks or granary?
My vote would be: 2-pop T59, complete and move settler to marble on T60, settle Marble City T61. Put hammers into rax 1t of +6F.
2. Final tweaking on the workers actions and where/when to build roads.

Regarding the workers, can the worker that is going to help build the Delhi/Marble road build the road from south to north rather than north to south? That way, he can build a partial farm for Candhi rather than partial roads that we don't really need right away.
That worker can either farm Chandi-1SE(1t) or road Chandi-1NE(1t), then still road Delhi-1SW (1t--filler turn), and then road Delhi-1SE. I think the Chandi-1NE road is better at this juncture, as I've explained. Note that Chandi can't be used as a warrior pump after T75/76, because it will be conected to Delhi via the river after Delhi reaches 500:culture:.


4. Do we want a barracks in GEL? Delhi?
I think GEL is better for the Kyoto Kapture, because it's closer to the front, so its unit production can be delayed a few turns. Actually, though, we need to keep a close eye on the Sabotage Production in the Espionage Screen for Asoka and if Toku completes BW, because if he builds culture in Osaka and we don't acquire the corn, GEL won't be able to regrow as quickly.
 
61 1560bc

Settle Marble City once roads are done and Delhi, GEL and MC will all be connected.
For anyone who doesn't see the significance of this detail, it's only +1g (and perhaps +1t chance for Hindu spread, I don't know) but still interesting. If we settle Marble City, then complete the roads to GEL, then GEL won't have a trade route with Delhi until the next turn. Completing the roads before settling Marble City gives us the trade route in GEL immediately.

There are certain actions that reset trade routes immediately and one of those actions is settling a city. I would be interested in seeing a list of all actions that reset trade routes.
 
Notes:

If we use the Zlat worker to chop the Delhi granary, then we don't need Hunting till T67, as I see it. We don't want to research Hunting at 0% because we don't get any bonus beakers for Toku and Hammy knowing it. So it's better to go Pottery(100%)-Aesthetics(0%) and then do Hunting(2t@100%) on or before T65. Edit: Also, there is a jump-point at 49 base-bpt for knowing 2 AIs with hunting, so we don't want to research Hunting until we're working the gems mine.

Now the road at Chandi-2NE then saves the worker 1 turn going to the deer. :)

T65
2 wkrs at Delhi-2N road Delhi-1NW (giving Chandi +1:) and +1cpt on T66)

T66
1 wkr at Delhi-1NW moves to deer
1 wkr at Delhi-1NW chops Marble-1NE (or whatever)

T67
wkr camps Zlat deer

.
 
It looks like i'm walking into the middle of this, sorry. At what point did we decide not to go for construction? Are we attacking toku without catas?

I miss read the ppp please ignore this post
 
I'm working on an updated PPP with all of the input. I'd like to play the first two turns tonight so that we can discuss the barb situation and then the rest of the turnset tomorrow. So, I can get two levels of approval:

1. The next two turns look fine
2. The whole PPP looks fine

If we can get agreement on item 1, I can play 2 turns tonight while we iron out the details and get approval on item 2.
 
Updated PPP

56 1760BC
NC workers both move NW and pasture pigs
Delhi-SE worker SE and road Grassland at Delhi-2SE
NC switch from partial warrior to library
Warrior 1 (John) stay on the GRiv For
Warrior 2 (Jack) stay on the GH Riv
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) 1W GRiv

57 1720bc
PH -> Pottery
Manually save the game
If Toku’s Archer did not move SW onto the GH Riv (2S of the GRiv Copper), then stop play and let the team know where Toku’s Archer went
pig workers finish pasture verify working pigs

Warrior 1 (John) if Toku’s Archer went SW, then move 1S GH Riv (2S of the GRiv Copper)
Warrior 2 (Jack) It kind of depends upon what Toku’s Archer did, but if Toku’s Archer went SW, Warrior 1 (John) will let us know where the Barb Archer is… and if the Barb Archer is not going to put Warrior 2 (Jack) in danger, then Warrior 2 (Jack) can move 1SE onto the GH (2N of the Crab)… but if the Barb Archer is next to that square, then Warrior 2 (Jack) can just stay where he is
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) If the Barb Warrior is 1N on the GRiv For (1W of the Deer), then move 1E GRiv For (1S of the Deer). If the Barb Warrior is not there but is still visible, stay in place. If the Barb Warrior is not visible, move 1N GRiv For (1W of the Deer)


58 1680
GEL finishes worker and starts Oracle barracks
Manually save the game
If we didn’t stop play last turn, we should this turn so that we can discuss what to do with our Warriors
One of the pig workers to gems and mine the gems.
The other pig worker moves 2E and roads/stop Candhi-NE.
GEL worker moves NW and road/stop.
Delhi-2SE worker move 1SW and road marble-1NE.
Change delhi to barracks
1 sci corn fp bronze in delhi

Warrior 1 (John) ??? Need to know where the Barb Archer and Toku’s Archer are located
Warrior 2 (Jack) ??? Need to know where the Barb Archer and Toku’s Archer are located
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ??? Need to know where the Barb Warrior is located

59 1640bc
Manually save the game
Pottery -> Aesthetics
GEL switch from partial Oracle barracks to Granary if the Barb Archer is dead
Natures Candhi switch from partial library to granary
GEL-NW worker moves to GEL-2W and road.
Natures Candhi-NE worker move to Delhi-1SW and road/stop.
Revolt to Slavery
Change Delhi to settler and whip 2 pop
MM Delhi to 2 sci
Tech slider to 0%
Warrior 1 (John) ???
Warrior 2 (Jack) ???
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ???

60 1600bc
Manually save the game
Delhi finishes settler -> granary. 2 sci + corn
Delhi-SW worker moves 2E to Delhi-SE and road.
Marble-1NE worker moves to Delhi-SE and road.
If the Barb Archer is dead, move Settler onto the Marble after road is complete, otherwise stop play to discuss
Warrior 1 (John) ???
Warrior 2 (Jack) ???
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ???

61 1560bc
Manually save the game
Both workers at Delhi-SE move to deer-2S and road.
GEL-2W worker moves to GEL-1NW and completes road.
Settle Marble City once all road segments are completed. Build granary. Steal copper mine from Delhi.
Nature’s Candhi grows to 2 pops and should be working the pigs and improved gems mine… JIT.
Gold-E Locks builds The Oracle from partial Granary now that the Marble has been connected
Warrior 1 (John) ???
Warrior 2 (Jack) ???
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ???

62 1520bc
Zlatorog builds a Worker -> Granary
Manually save the game
One deer-2S worker chop/stop Marble-1NE
Second deer-2S worker chops GEL-NW
Zlatorog’s new Worker moves 2SE
GEL-NW worker moves to GEL-N and chops.
NC-S worker completes road at NC-1NE
Warrior 1 (John) ???
Warrior 2 (Jack) ???
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ???

63 1480bc
Manually save the game
Marble-1NE moves to Delhi-1NE and farm/stop
NC-1NE roads NC-2NE (Delhi-2NW)
Zlatorog-2SE worker chop/stop Delhi-2N
Warrior 1 (John) ???
Warrior 2 (Jack) ???
Warrior 3 (near Zlatorog) ???

64 1440bc
Manually save the game
Bulb Math
GEL-1N Worker waits for Math to be Lightbulbed and then chops into Oracle
GEL-1NW Worker chops into Oracle
 

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LowtherCastle said:
Let me first clarify that we cannot 2-pop the Chandi library because we won't have time to grow back up to pop4. Instead, we chop + 1-pop the granary from pop3>pop2, then we outside-culture 1chop the library and work the mine growing from pop3 to pop4. Then we hire two sci immediately. I'm not sure how soon we'll need the farm after that, but I think we'll have time to finish it after the two chops.
That approach sounds fine by me... Math already increases the value of a Forest Chop equally to that of a Forest Chop inside of Cultural Borders pre-Math.

When is the Farm needed? In place of the Gems square for part of the turns after we hire the 2 Scientists, alternating between the Gems Mine and the Grassland River Farm to avoid shrinking the population size?


LowtherCastle said:
Back to your question, my main reason for roading NE is to connect Chandi to Delhi asap for +1TR and Hindu spread.
If we aren't going to build any Warriors out of Chandi, which it sounds like we aren't going to be doing if we follow LC's plan for Chandi, then I'm okay with connecting-up these two Cities. In my testing, I was avoiding connecting these Cities so as to still be able to build Warriors, but if we aren't going to build Warriors, then yeah, it will help to connect-up these Cities.

I wouldn't make it a high priority Worker action to connect up Chandi to Delhi, but at least then we'll have something reasonable useful for Workers heading east from Chandi to do (build partial Road segments--that is, assuming that segments fit with LC's Road layout--I haven't actually looked where he is placing the Roads to connect Chandi to Delhi).

That said, connecting-up that Road network is probably a higher priority than building a Farm in Chandi, unless we somehow can complete the Library and be at Size 4 faster by having said Farm.


LowtherCastle said:
Actually, though, we need to keep a close eye on the Sabotage Production in the Espionage Screen for Asoka and if Toku completes BW, because if he builds culture in Osaka and we don't acquire the corn, GEL won't be able to regrow as quickly.
I'm confused by this cryptic comment. So, Toku getting BW = him being able to whip a Cultural Building, right?

What's that bit about Sabotage Production? Is it just a way of monitoring when we will need to start spending Espionage Points on Toku again?


LowtherCastle said:
If we use the Zlat worker to chop the Delhi granary
Why can't we use one of the other Workers to do it? It seemed that in my test run, instead of me using 2 Workers to Chop Forests at Marble City, I could have used one to Chop at Delhi.

We want Zlatorog getting going soon... which either means 2 fast Chops into a Granary and then Camping the Deer or doing things in the opposite order... but whatever the order, we don't want to delay doing so, right?
 
PPP looks fine to me.

Some details to consider.

T57
As of T56 we're at 27 cities worldwide. The Zlatorog warrior needs to be on the chokepoint before 31 cities worldwide. That number will increase during the IT before the barbs play and can increase by several cities in any given turn. So our warrior really needs to grab that spot pretty soon even if it means that he'll only get to fortify for one turn before the barb can attack. So...if you're not able to move to the chokepoint on T57, then I think that requires a new count of the worldwide cities. My spreadsheet is attached below. You need to fill in the the beige cells with REAL SAVE data and then be Sherlock Holmes and figure out how the difference arose.

T58
GEL builds rax(1t)? Hammers into the Oracle this turn are extraneous and are halved in value after Oracle overflow = /200%

T63
Marble-1NE moves to Delhi-1NE? and farm/stop If 1NE, then later this tile can be farmed on the way to the two chops to the NE.

---------------

Other possible tasks each turn:
1. Check if anyone is WHEOOHRN.
2. CHeck if Toku has BW (8k spike in power graph).
3. Check if TOku threatens with unit stronger than archer.
4. Check if Osaka has completed a monument/library.
5. Check if anyone has completed the Oracle. Note that this is especially critical on T64 before chopping the two forests into the Oracle.
6. Check if we see Hammy's culture or new culture from teh western islands.
7. Check if TOku has built a new city (possibly by his fish).
 
A warning to all teams.

We are currently investigating a potential bug.

The result of this is that the WHEOORN fist may or may not be displaying properly.

While we are investigating, then I suggest that if you want to know WHEOORN status, you talk to each of the AI.
I checked and as of T56 our two Tokus are still wimps.
 
So...if you're not able to move to the chokepoint on T57, then I think that requires a new count of the worldwide cities. My spreadsheet is attached below. You need to fill in the the beige cells with REAL SAVE data and then be Sherlock Holmes and figure out how the difference arose.

No attachment...

T58
GEL builds rax(1t)?

I thought what we put in, we got out. I also thought we were only going to build one barracks. In any event, I'll make switch. We likely won't finish the barracks before building the units for Toku but it will be nice for future wars/units.

T63
Marble-1NE moves to Delhi-1NE? and farm/stop If 1NE, then later this tile can be farmed on the way to the two chops to the NE.

I was farming Delhi-N because Delhi-NE prevents forest re-growth. If we plan on choppoing that forest soon, likely before we finish the farm, then it doesn't matter.


Other possible tasks each turn:
1. Check if anyone is WHEOOHRN.
2. CHeck if Toku has BW (8k spike in power graph).
3. Check if TOku threatens with unit stronger than archer.
4. Check if Osaka has completed a monument/library.
5. Check if anyone has completed the Oracle. Note that this is especially critical on T64 before chopping the two forests into the Oracle.
6. Check if we see Hammy's culture or new culture from teh western islands.
7. Check if TOku has built a new city (possibly by his fish).

Will do. I'll play the next two turns shortly, paying special attention to worldwide population.

@Dhoom, If you check sabotage production in the espionage screen, you get a clue about how many hammers an AI has into a particular build item. I don't remember the exact formula, but 3 EPP / hammer sounds familiar.
 
I played to T58.

T56
Sabotage production in Osaka: 139 :espionage:

T57
Toku's archer climbs the hill and kills the barb archer. :goodjob: Toku's archer is at 2.5/3. Damn. It would have been nice if he took him down below 2... :mischief: How many posts did we spend talking about this barb archer and like that, he's dead!!
Sabotage production in Osaka: 178 :espionage:

T58
I did my religion dance but no spread. We did, however, get a forest to grow at Candhi-1SW!! :cool: I guess I have my forest dance and religion dance mixed up.
Tokugawa learns Alphabet!!! He won't trade Fishing, Hunting, Pottery or Alphabet and he wants Mysticism. It's nice to know that he spent his beakers on Alphabet rather than BW. His tech pace seems pretty fast to have Alphabet in 1680 BC.
Sabotage production in Osaka: 216 :espionage: Is he building a library?
No one is WHEOOHRN.
No cities built by Toku or Hammy.

The only bad thing this turnset is that I forgot to move the Zlatorog warrior 1W on T56. That's what happens when you're used to a test game where he's not fortified. :blush: In any event, the barb is in a bad spot, so I'm stopping so that LC can figure out if we've hit the 31 city mark.

Spoiler :
 

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I just ran a test in our test game. If we move to the forest and the barb archer attacks us the next turn, our odds of losing are 3.3%. For some reason, we get a 25% crossing river bonus (and a 50% forest bonus) in the test game.

If I got to the forest and the barb moved next to me on the following turn, I fortified thinking I'd get the 5% bonus but when I was attacked the odds were 3.3% again. I guess the barb attacks before the fortification bonus kicks in.

If this is correct, it means that we'd have to be standing in the forest for 2 full turns before we get the 5% bonus. What are the odds that this will happen in the real game.

Maybe we should just move to the forest and fight next turn. Assumes that we get the 25% crossing river bonus in the real game too. 96.7% odds are pretty good in my book.
 
We are the slowest team to play at the moment. We only have about 6 more weeks to finish. I think we need to pick up the pace a tad...
 
Sorry about the no-attachment. That must be because it wasn't zip-locked and I simply didn't notice the that upload failed. I'll see if I can figure out the number of cities real quick-like.

xpost: Six weeks? Sheesh.
 
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