SGOTM 15 - Maple Sporks

Ok, I've tried a bunch of test-runs without Oracle. The biggest problem in this case is that whipping axes isn't very productive as we can't feasibly two-pop them. So ideally, you'd need something else for two-popping, but there isn't a lot available. Chopping axes works to some degree, but is quite a bit less efficient then chopping the Oracle. Another option is to get some quick warriors out before hooking up copper, but this means we need more gold to upgrade, which in turns means setting research to 0%, which means falling behind further in relation to the Oracle-attempt.

So in short, I can get either:
- more axes (or the same amount of axes, but a couple of turns earlier), but (almost) no techs, leaving us in a big whole after the rush
- almost the same amount of axes (+1or2), almost the same amount of beakers (minus the beakers for CoL of course).
- using total deforestation, I can get even more axes (+4, though some more should be possible as well if I try to optimize it further), with the same amount of beakers, but then we have to build any further wonders by hand only.

Even shorter:
Can I have 1 Oracle please?
 
@DS, too bad you're low on time atm. I understand that'll be like that for a while? Shall I just put you last on the roster?

@Ororo, fine with me if you can play next weekend, though if Sengir's hands are itching also fine of course... Though I guess finetuning the execution during next week won't hurt. In any case, I'd probably break up next set in two. Can be played by the same person, but maybe better not execute T50-T71 in one sweep. Possibly turn before Oracle completion would be good gauge moment to see if we're on track and if the plan plays out as we foresee it.

That's if indeed we agree on Oracle, but I see Sengir also jumped the wagon. :D We should also be definitive on what we Oracle, CoL or MC or something else. CoL so far seems to win out.

I'll try to make an excel of my run. Hopefully can do that this evening or tomorrow. As mentioned, the first part is kind of clear, but the second part surely can be optimized. That's maybe another reason to actually break up the set.
 
I agree on breaking up the set. I'm still wondering if we'd be able to grab something better then CoL, but I'm afraid that'd be too much of a gamble. I also think that Ororo should grab next set, he's put more time into it and is more familiar with the micro then I am at this point.
 
I´m still not convinced by Oracle CoL if we´re seriously considering a medieval war. If we´re aiming for fast cuirassiers then Col>phil is indeed the way to go to pump out the GSs required for lib slinging.

Our first GP probably does need to be a prophet for theology sling. Its worth noting that AP does not get any bonusses so we probably want to get it sooner rather than later.
 
Sorry for being MIA but I was out of town this weekend and forgot to share with the group.

I agree with DS that we need to run through some axe scenarios.

I have the day off tomorrow. I will try some test runs.

Great work on the tests thus far.
 
Mr pigswill has got me the whole morning thinking about the pros and cons of hitchhiking Code of Law. I'm a bit in a limbo right now so here follows a whole series of incomprehensible numbers. :D

Spoiler Spoilered in order not to scare anyone away... :

First of all, this is the relevant part of the GS bulb list. For simplicity I'm discarding bulbing with GEs here, I think they're too difficult to produce anyway, especially more than 1.

Mathematics
Alphabet (BTS)
Philosophy
Paper
Aesthetics (BTS)
Iron Working
Metal Casting
Engineering
Machinery

In all cases we'll have to self-tech (or trade :rolleyes:) math, alpha, aesthetics and IW before we can do anything on the path to engineering. If we get these out of the way and we Oracle MC, then we just need 2 GSs for engineering and machinery.

On the other hand, if we Oracle CoL, we open up philo and hence we'd need 4 GSs to do the same, supposing we bulb MC rather than teching it.

However, with caste and pacifism we can crank out GSs much faster while we don't necessarily need libraries to hire them.

Turns it takes to produce great people. Number of turns is based on GPP required for subsequent GPs (100, 300, 500, 700...) divided by GP generation per turn.

With no caste, assuming 2 hired specs being PHI:
1st: 9
2nd: 25
3rd: 42
4th: 58
So if 1 city should produce them all, the 3rd one comes in 9+25+42=76 turns. But of course with 2 or more cities with a library those turns aren't cumulative.

Turns it takes to produce great people with caste, assuming 4 hired specs being PHI and supposing pacifism from the 2nd GS onward.
1st: 5
2nd: 9
3rd: 14
4th: 19

First point: assuming that in either case we have 2 cities producing great people. Note in the MC scenario we'll have to whip 2 libraries and regrow to 4. However, in the CoL scenario we need 2 cities of size 6. I think roughly that takes equal amount of time. In that case in MC scenario the 2nd GS is popped at T+25, while in CoL scenario the 4th one comes at T+28. Timing wise that's not a significant difference.

Second point I want to make is in either case: should we even try to actively seek a GPr as first great person (although IF we want one THEN it should be the 1st one imo, later it's too difficult)? In the MC scenario that means the 2nd GS (3rd GP in total) would take 42 turns to produce. But obviously also in the CoL scenario it delays the road to engineering, although the 5th one with caste/pac comes a lot earlier than the 3rd with MC. Important to note we can NOT bulb theo anyway until we bulbed engineering, as otherwise we open up paper. So maybe we should just self-tech theo, while producing all the great people. First math/alpha/aesth/IW then mono and theo. How long would that take?

Third point/consideration: Pyramids in the cap costs 500 hammers. 16 base hammers at size 5 with stone bonus means it can be built in 500/2/16=16 turns, with some chops in about 12. Representation gives obviously an enormous boost to our tech, especially in case of caste. Assuming T63 Oracle, T71 SoD ready then T84 (give or take) representation.

Fourth point: careful with the whip when constructing the SoD. In either scenario it can be detrimental to GP generation. At least the envisioned GP producing cities should be whipped lightly, if at all. What interests us is having as large as possible cities. Possibly that means we should be farming a bit.

Possible city configuration "shortly" after T71 for caste:
Stone Hill: Size 5, 3 GH mines, bronze, farm. Stagnated, building mids.
Marble: Size 4/5, growing rapidly on corn+FP. At 4 it could work just corn + 3 sci specs and give back FP to cap.
PearlySwine: Size 6, working pig, gem, farm + 3 sci specs.
GoldenFleece: Size 5/6, 3 or 4 sci specs.

For 3 spec GP seneration we have something like this:
1st: 6
2nd: 11
3rd: 19
4th: 26

That would mean engineering bulb around T71+6+26=T103, assuming 3 cities producing great people. Note that some Jap city might help too. If we somehow manage to create the SoD without the whip we might actually switch to caste earlier and hire some specs in for instance Pearly Swine and be a bit earlier to the party.

IIRC Ororo talked about 400BC as an objective for engineering. T100=375BC I see in SGOTM graphs, so T103 wouldn't be too far off.

One unknown is the general tech rate meanwhile. If it really is rather good with caste and mids, we might actually just self-tech MC too. In that case we only need 3 GSs for engineering, speeding things up more.

We should test things out. :p

TL/DR

- I think it's probably better NOT to produce a GPr for theo and just self-tech it.
- I think by Oracle-ing CoL or MC we end up with engineering roughly around the same date. But with at least 2 extra techs (CoL+philo) in the bag in case of going CoL.
- We should look at minimizing whip use when constructing the SoD. Farm and chop more, just save a forest or 2 for the cap.
- We should do some test runs further into the future (until around T100).
 
I think I´ll have a go at founding Justmarble, Oracling MC, building Forge in Cap after axe rush, research masonry, PH, poly, mono, writing (revolt to OR to help w forge). The idea is to get prophet first for theo bulb then eng for machinery bulb. Micro will probably let me down but its more of a feasibility study.
 
@nocho: We also need Construction as it is a prerequisite for Engineering. Not that much of an issue since our research will skyrocket onceRep specialists will kick in...
 
@pigswill, such a test would be very useful indeed, whatever the result is. Play on until engineering is in. Of course playing a loose test won't give the optimal date, but it should be indicative. Also good to get some practice with actually rushing Toku meanwhile. :)

@Ororo, ah yes, construction. That should theoretically tilt the advantage to CoL even more, as tech rate must be better than with the MC run.

Let me see, is that doable before T100? Raw beaker costs:

math 250
alpha 300
iw 200
aesth 300
constr 350
SUBTOTAL 1400 for engineering
poly 100
mono 120
theo 500
TOTAL 2120 engineering + theo

If T84 mids, then let's assume by then (Japan in hand, partly or totally out of revolt too) we can undoubtedly hire, say, 15 specs (roughly 10 of which as argued above are needed anyway for GS generation). So 16 turns 15*6=16*90=1440 from specs alone. Add maybe an average of 6 to 8 specs from T71 to T84 without rep, 6*13*3=234. Of course we're not even counting discounts on techs yet from prereqs and to a lesser degree of them getting known by opponents. And we're not counting any contribution from ordinary commerce yet, nor additions in the ability to build research, nor the construction of libraries. So yes, techwise we should be able to easily get these techs! Skyrocketing looks like the correct term. :goodjob: We may well have time to self research MC and/or squeeze in currency, both speeding up the date obviously. It'll be interesting to do some runs until T100.

The only downside I see to all this is that we won't have slavery for nearly 30 turns to whip good infra in place...
 
Definitely worth testing.

I went for Oracle>MC as posted above.

Played up to T90.

Oracle>MC in GF 1280bc (could have been earlier I´m sure).

11 axes in 1160bc. Declared.

Researched towards mono, whipped forge and swopped to OR to speed up pyramids.

Got prophet 825bc.

Finished writing and bulbed theo 700bc, founded christianity fwiw.

Built pyramids in capital 625bc.

GE due in capital in 20 turns for machinery bulb.

The interesting thing is that by 625bc I´ve built 25 axes, lost 10 and Toku´s capital is unscathed. In the test save he doesn´t have horses or metals so he´s been spamming archers.

It may be worth other people practicing rushing toku while building pyramids to give a clearer idea of when we could transition to caste-rep powered research.
 
I did a test up until capturing Kyoto, I was able to take the city with 16 axes, with 4 archers defending. I edited Kyoto to be on a hill, with walls, and attacked across a river on top of that. I doubt we will be that unlucky, but 16 (8 promoted) is a pretty safe number IMHO.
Note that I went straight to the cap: the city near us is overwhelmed by our culture so will have a harder time whipping anything. The cap is the hardest nut to crack, so I figured I'd better start on that one first.

@nocho: can you post your test-save/write-up? I think I mismanaged something because I came two axes short on the same turn number...


Also, since we need to tech Math for the bulb, I'd suggest teching it after pottery, to take advantage of math-enhanced chops for the Mids.
 
Question for the team: how does a 1000bc axe rush vs Toku help us win the game faster than settling 6 cities in our patch while building Oracle and Pyramids? One obvious factor is we have no horses so no cuirassier rush, we don´t yet know about iron.
 
Pros:
- We determine the moment of war (war with Toku is pretty much inevitable)
- We get an additional capital city + the cities Toku has kindly settled for us, while still leaving our own lands for settling (not much) later
- We (hopefully) open a route to other (non-Toku?-)AI's, for trade-routes & techs
- We get rid of an AI early.
- We open up HE early

Cons:
- Less developed backyard
- Slower techpace (to start, we'd tech faster in the long run).
- The other AI's might also be Toku's willing to declare war straight away, effectively turning this game into an AW-game.
 
@Sengir: did you upgrade any warriors to axes? That may explain the difference. I'll try to redo the same run and make a writeup this evening, if I don't fall asleep on the couch like I did last night.

Regarding a more peaceful approach in the short term, it is a serious possibility. We could settle the northern gold and the cow/deer and probably go a bit faster tech wise. We'd have a bit earlier mids for example and could delay a DoW until after engineering when we could attack with trebs and sdwords or xbows. 12 axes now are 420 hammers or 2 settlers and a good deal of the mids...
All Sengir's pros and cons are true of cours. To add another con: the number of cities we'll end up with. As we can't raze we'll end up with all the awfulness the AI is going to settle. Obviously the earlier we DoW the more control we have over the shape of our core empire. I think we can consider Toku's turf to be part of the future core of our empire. Hammu is too far away already.
Related with Sengir's first point (determine moment of war) is that if we declare early we'll do so before Toku starts plotting and thus will face a much smaller number of units.

So I'm still inclined to go for it. Luck is with the brave! Getting Toku's cap early likely is a big prize. However, since the brave also tend to die young, we should also be smart in our calculations... Given Sengir's test, maybe we should aim for a slightly higher number than 12 axes. Say 15/16. That would take maybe 3 or 4 turns more, but gives much better odds, possibly. Also, if we see that his cap is unassailable, we can always settle for peace after taking at least Osaka. That gives us a bit more breathing space and if we go math-construction first we could always DoW a second time with catapult support and finish him off.

Which makes me think, we could also tech alpha first and hope to extort some techs from Toku, supposing we don't have a problem capturing his capital and Osaka. He might have IW and small stuff like pottery, hunting etc. Would that be worth a 10 turn delay in killing him? Math first for increased chopping power makes sense too though.
 
That would probably have made the difference, as I forgot to set science to 0%.
 
Which makes me think, we could also tech alpha first and hope to extort some techs from Toku, supposing we don't have a problem capturing his capital and Osaka. He might have IW and small stuff like pottery, hunting etc. Would that be worth a 10 turn delay in killing him? Math first for increased chopping power makes sense too though.

I really like this idea. One thing to consider though is that Toku beelined Alpha in my test game. Toku does favor science and military (I've checked the BTS reference sheet) and him being backward is usually caused by the inability to trade techs, not the inability to tech.

Did he tech Alpha in anyone else's test game? If so, we might want to refrain from teching it ourselves.

Do we want to focus our EPs on Hammu to see what he's researching? It's probably too late to do it with Toku considering we are hopefully going to eliminate him soon...
 
EP on Hammu sounds logical.

Ororo, as an expert rusher :)D) how many axes do you think we need? Is 12 sufficient? If we go ahead with the rush I guess that's the key question now... How many archers were in the cap in the tests (if anyone got that far, I didn't). Bypassing Osaka like Sengir mentioned could make sense, especially if it has good defense when we dow. If it only has 1 archer I'd take it though.
 
I'd be surprised if Toku has alpha around 1000BC btw. Just before we get writing ourselves we could check whether he is there yet by looking for (redded out) open borders. If not, I'd surely wouldn't count on it. If he does, probably I wouldn't either. :D
 
The point of bypassing Osaka is not so much the defenses in Osaka, but giving Toku the ability to whip reinforcements. Osaka will have a hard time reinforcing, as we'll steal most tiles hopefully, but Kyoto will be developed a bit and as such will be able to build/whip more archers. If we take Osaka first, it will delay our attack on Kyoto quite a bit (4 turns movement + time to heal/reinforce), which would give Toku quite some time for emergency whipping.

Also, I think it might be a good idea to sent a warrior to scout Toku a bit more. Just spying from outside the borders will give us quite some information.
 
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