SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

I don't recall forcing a settling location for the island to the west. The only constraint was that the Fish tile couldn't be used. LC, did chop the forest into the granary, as did many PH starts. I don't see an issue with this. It shows that the worker has spare turns and can be available to make improvements in City #2, even if it is settled circa T70.
Okay, that is my misunderstanding. Still, I think it isn't necessarily realistic to count on being able to Chop a Forest. However, I think that it is realistic to assume that we can improve at least one square in our initial 9-square radius for City 2, otherwise why would we settle City 2 at such a poor short-term location in the first place?

An early Forest Chop = 30 Hammers. Instead of settling on the GH and Mining it, we can get those same Hammers after 10 turns. So, I guess in the short run, it doesn't really matter all that much (i.e. for T82 comparisons). Either method (chopping a GFor or Mining a GH) will get us a whippable Granary at City Size 2. Still, I find it kind of weird that we would waste a GH in the real game by settling on it, even at the cost of a Forest. But, if that's what the team decides to do, it's not really an game-ending decision, so I won't get too upset either way.



IIRC, with SIP, the worker will still be busy around Paris since it comes a bit later. So, if city #2 is off continent and not 3E, sending the worker with the settler could prove problematic.
That point is not an issue for Dh #247, since part of that test's theme is an early Worker for SIP. We get our Worker on Turn 37, 3075 BC. The Corn is Farmed and the PH is Mined by Turn 56, 2600 BC, freeing up the Worker to do whatever it wants from that point on, such as Chopping the second Forest, building Roads, or heading off of our initial continent.

Maybe the AVERAGE SIP test run has this issue with the Worker, but Dh #247 does not suffer from this issue.


2. LC #257 already has a galley and already has settler #3 out. Dh #247 still has to whip the galley and settler, moving Paris back to 2 pops and Orleans back to 1 pop. When LC #257 does crack the whip in Orleans next turn (or there about), it will be to complete a granary, not a galley. So, in a sense, LC #257 is ahead a granary in Orleans and a lot of hammers in Paris (settler #3 already whipped). Paris is also, in effect, larger since it has already whipped the settler and is growing back to pop 4/5. Dh #247 Paris will be whipped back to 2 pops shortly and thus be behind about 2 pops.
Absolutely. We gain in production at the cost of more than 50 Flasks' worth of research and less exploration.

30 Hammers of that City #2's Granary come from a Forest that we are not guaranteed to use, since we keep talking about wanting to explore for a "better location" for City #2. Chances are very great that we will not settle next to a Forest, so we won't really be "up a Granary" at all... we will have more production in the way of a couple of more whippable people, but unless we plan to put City #2 next to that GFor NO MATTER HOW GOOD OF A BETTER LOCATION WE CAN FIND, then I think it is misleading to count that Forest Chop. Far better is to settle on the GFor, Mine that GH, and work the Mine, since it IS feasible that we will settle City #2 next to at least one improveable Resource... isn't it? Or is that assumption too much to make and you'd consider settling City 2 such that its initial 9-square radius will have a 1 Food + 2 Commerce square as its best square?


4. Exploration is about a wash. Dh #247 gets WB#1 out sooner but WB#2 out later. LC #257 does get some "free" exploration with the galley that Dh #247 does not.
If we qualify the exploration, meeting the AIs 11 turns sooner is an important factor. Sure, with the sooner Galley, localized exploration for City #3 can be a bit better, but we'll still be meeting the AIs 11 turns slower--and more than 11 turns' worth if we settle City #2 3E with Dh #247, since that means that we won't need to use any turns with Work Boat Explorer #1 to look for a City #2 location.


5. Dh #247 is ahead 53 beakers, or about 3 turns of research.
And behind in production. That's the trade-off that we discussed above.


6. In LC #257, Paris has already whipped settler #3. Dh #247 has not, so we can effectively add +15:mad: to Dh #247.
A reasonable point. I 1-pop-whipped a Lighthouse. It seemed to be a good trade-off to work 1 less square in exchange for +1 Food on 3 different squares.

Working 1 extra square, such as a GH Mine, when building a Settler, gives +2 Hammers. Instead, working one less GH Mine but getting +3 Food from a Lighthouse, gives +3 - +2 = 3 - 2 = +1 Food. So, I gained a Food per turn by being at one City Size smaller... a good rate of return, if you ask me.

If we don't whip the Lighthouse, we can be one City Size larger but will actually make less Hammers when building a Settler. I think that I made the right call here, don't you?


7. Most other points are farily similar (e.g. clams netted, etc.)
Those 11 turns of initial Work Boat exploration, the factor that most of the team seems to care about the most, were glazed over... ;)


If we find a really juicy off-island location, any PH start is ready to take advantage of it since PH starts from the beginning with the idea of needing to settle off-island.
Let's not generalize here. A few PH test runs get Settler #2 out early, settling City #2 in the Turn 64 to Turn 69 range, but LC #257 is not one of these saves.


For any SIP test that "plans" on settling 3E, some compromises would have to be made to settle that location as city #2.
What compromises?

Giving up the 4th Food Resource (the Corn)? Well, PH only has 3 Food Resources itself, so SIP having 3 Clam Food Resources is better than PH's 2 Clam Resources plus 1 Corn (SIP gets 2 more Commerce from these Food Resources in the long run). That's not much of a compromise. :confused:

The ability to get more exploration since we can delay finding a City #2 settling location? That "compromise" actually sounds like an advantage of SIP.

Lower Maintenance for City #2? Once again, 3E sounds like it has an advantage, not a compromise.

Worse Trade Routes? Maybe... but we solve this issue with Dh #247 by getting Writing quicker and by meeting the AIs faster than in any other test run, gaining us the Foreign International Trade Routes the fastest. Besides, the saved 1 Commerce on Maintenance makes the Trade Route difference only equal a difference of 1 Commerce per turn, while the earlier Foreign Trade Routes will make up that difference plus gain 2 additional Commerce per turn.

So, it sounds like the "compromises" of settling 3E are actually in many ways benefits, particularly when combined with Dh #247's early Work Boat Explorer #1 and fast Writing (for Open Borders).


As many have said, I think a PH start is a bit more balanced as will allow us to better capitalize on things as our exploration progresses.
Again, we're generalizing. LC #257 does offer more production at the cost of early exploration and research. That's not really "balanced" as much as it is trade-offs. However, since the team seems to care more about early exploration and research, it seems to be making trade-offs in the wrong direction.

Like I said, if we want to go production-heavy, then let's go even more extreme and take a game like Dh #269. I don't like that game, since I disagree that going for heavy production is the most important factor, but if you value production as the most important factor, then it's looking like the saved game to pick.
 
@ Dhoom

I think you missed some of my points, so let me clarify.

1. For a PH start, city #2 will likely start on a granary. For Dh #247, city #2 starts with a galley. So, when Dh #247 whips a galley first, PH will be whipping a granary first. From that standpoint, even without a +30H chop but some other improved tile, city #2 will at least be ahead on getting a granary up, which will have an on-going advantage of growing sooner and faster as the game progresses.

2. Yes, Dh #247 does get WB #1 out sooner, but LC #257 gets WB #2 out sooner. So, IF WB #1 gets sent the "wrong" way (assumes all AI are in the same direction), it will be WB#2 that first meets the AI. In that case, LC # 257 would meet the AI 10 turns sooner. The sooner we have TWO workboats headed in two different directions, the better assuming exploration and meeting the AI is a priority. Add to that the fact that LC #257 has an early galley explorer for localized exploration. Both saves have advantages. This is why I called exporation a wash. Dh #247 has WB#1 sooner while LC #257 has WB#2 and galley#1 sooner.

3. I'm not saying that your whipping the LH was bad. In fact, it sounds like the right move. I was just commenting that Dh #247 effectively has +15:mad: turns due to the upcoming whip of settler #3. I guess it would be interesting to know how this manifests itself in how soon we can get settler #4, but it appears that LC #257 would win that race, right? This also has ripple effects as getting future cities sooner will lead to a bigger, more productive empire sooner.

4. The reason that I said that LC #257 (and all PH starts) is poised to take advantage of a juice off-island location is that it is already planning to settle city #2 off island. Some PH starts settle city #2 earlier than others, sure, but all plan to settle #2 off island. They have to. Nothing has to be changed in Paris' MM to prepare for this. In Dh #247, city #2 is planned for 3E. Changes would have to be made to the MM to get a galley and settler #2 out by T71 or so (current galley comes out on T85) so that settler #2 can settle off island to grab that spot at the same time that LC #257 can get it. That is what I meant by "compromises would have to be made..." My guess is that we'll be able to find a location much better than 3E quite soon in our exploration. So, an off-continent city #2 will outperform 3E in the long run. While SIP settles this first juicy off-continent location as city #3, PH will already be settling another off-island location. SIP will always have to live with a mediocre Orleans with 2 shared food resources and one grassland hill to itself. PH will be expanding off island faster and always be a city ahead of SIP in this regard (i.e. settling the off island locations).

Just looking at a nice capital, I like SIP with 4 food and an off-continent city #2 (not 3E sharing food) for the long-term. However, I think a PH start allows us to get our off-continent settling going faster such that cities #2 and beyond will be better than the corresponding cities #2 and beyond of SIP. Said in another way, PH City #2 will be better than 3E. PH City #3 will be better than SIP #3 (which will likely be in the same location of PH City #2 only settled 10+ turns later). It is this ripple effect of cities #2 and beyond that have convinced me that a PH start is better even though the SIP Paris "may" be better than a PH Paris.
 
OK, I think Dhoomstriker and I have defined some of the advantages/disadvantages with a few of the test runs. Most of it is obvious, but at least now it is on the table for all to read, debate, comment, etc.

However, I still feel that we're no closer to getting started. We have several PH votes but none of them have said which PH test run they prefer and why. Maybe some of the PH votes will switch to SIP votes. We don't know until we hear from more of the team.

I'll put a PPP together for the first 30? turns once I have an idea of what the team wants to do. Just voting "PH" doesn't give me enough information to plan my turnset...

EDIT: X-Post with LC below.
 
I've run a new set of testing on PH. Planning to test SIP too, but you guys are going at it, so I thought this would be useful.

Tests on T82. I've actually been settling the tile south of SIP because I didn't want any sharing. No biggie. I've taken a few liberties to create comparisons. In mdy23, I subtracted the fish and assumed mdy did what I did in my Orleans tests. I also poprushed settler 3 in saves where possible. Obviously this would not be optimal for DhSIP on T82, for example, but my goal was to calculate how many hammers had been produced by T82.

Code:
 ---
 T82
 ---
       Pot54  Sail1  mdy22  mdy23  DhSIP  
Paris  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  
pop      3      5      3      2      2     
food   22/39  45/45  22/39  39/36  24/36  
set3    189     0     173    150    152    

Orleans
pop      1      1      1      2      2      
food   28/33  30/33  20/33   3/36   8/36     
gran    7/90  21/90  40/90  55/90  22/90  

Explrs  T47    T47    T53    T53    T42        
        T58    T57    T58    T58    T73    

TProd   878h   775h   818h   838h   773h      
wtg     245b   259b   265b   277b  My22b   
whip:(   23t    26t    22t    37t    35t

Pot54 1pops wb2, 2pops the granary, 3pops settler2 with chop+OF building the galley in 1t.

I think it's pretty clear that Pot54 is heads and shoulders above the other tests. The reason is simple: leveraging poprushing and the granary to the max, plus having wb5 ready for the somewhat later settlement (note that Orleans is almost as developed, even though it was settled on T76). Pot54 can also squeeze in another warrior to assist in defogging inner land tiles, if we find them. That could be critical for last-minute, fine-tuned decisions on where to settle. The granary/poprush calculation is simple:
Code:
         whip p6>p3     food  benefit
         ----------     ----  -------
no gran     135h        126f    9h
w/gran      135h         64f   71h
Sailing first has several weaknesses. Bad timing on poprushes. Late granary. Early settler without a wb is lame. If we find a site with a land resource, then the worker will be able to improve it quickly.

---------------

I'd still like to run a couple refined tests on SIP. Dhoom, what's your sequence for the earlier worker?
 
but you guys are going at it...

Going at it? Just because I have Dhoom in a headlock and he's about to tap out doesn't mean we're going at it... :D


Interesting tests, LC. I assume that we still can't upload saves. Pity. It would be great if everyone could take a look at Pot54. Does your Orleans have the southern clam netted (making 3 total clams netted)?
 
Interesting tests, LC. I assume that we still can't upload saves. Pity. It would be great if everyone could take a look at Pot54. Does your Orleans have the southern clam netted (making 3 total clams netted)?
I didn't even try uploading. Orleans netted the clams same turn it settled. Wb5 had already been available for several turns (didn't mention that, did I? :)).

Btw, I also tested the difference between mine1 versus cornfarm first. You were right, pop growth is better. Isn't it always? Pot54 goes corn farm first.
 
Btw, I also tested the difference between mine1 versus cornfarm first. Pop growth is better. Isn't it always? Pot54 goes corn farm first.

Whew. I can sleep tonight without having to rethink my entire "worker improves food resource first" early-game strategy.

By the way, I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, SIP vs. PH, etc, that I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan. When I told them I was suicidal they got all excited and asked if I could drive a truck. :lol:
 
By the way, I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, SIP vs. PH, etc, that I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan. When I told them I was suicidal they got all excited and asked if I could drive a truck. :lol:
Same here. Except they asked me if it runs in the family and if I have lots of kids... :nuke:
 
:lol:

Ok, so none of the other PH'ers have chimed in (and I'm a little too busy to look at saves :(). So how about this for a plan. We have Mitchum take the first play and have him post a PPP through bronzeworking. This will probably take a few days to work out. Anybody still advocating for SIP can post saves/numbers etc. for those next few days (and a PPP would be nice) to give people a few more days to change their mind or chime in. But unless we get a large shift in votes to abstain or SIP, we proceed with Mitchum's PPP through bronzeworking. We'll obvious break the first set down into a T+1 set (just to confirm that we want to stay with the PH plan after moving the warrior again), a T+2 set (to confirm that we'll stay on our plan after seeing what's in our full BFC), followed by the rest of Mitchum's PPP. This will hopefully get the ball rolling.

@Dhoom (and others who fall in the minority on big decisions in the future) - I really do appreciate the testing that you've done so far on the SIP spot, and I think it's quite viable here - as I've said, I'm ok with either spot. But in the interest of moving the game forward on a reasonable time table, we have to pick one and start moving. And in terms of keeping the most team members happy, I think we have to go PH here. I'm sure you might feel like you've been arguing against a brick wall here on SIP vs. PH but there will be other points in this game where you'll fall on the other side of the divide so hopefully you won't hate me for making us go settle on PH.
 
Alright, I have risen to the challenge. I have altered Dh #247 so that we have THE FLEXIBILITY to settle City #2 either 3E or off-continent.

Settler #2 arrives on Turn 73, 2175 BC. It can either be settled 3E on this very same turn, or it can wait for Galley 1.

Galley 1 arrives on Turn 74, 2150 BC.

Turn 73, 2175 BC screenshot: Settler 2 can be optionally settled 3E or can board Galley 1... Galley 1 will be completed at the end of this turn
Spoiler :



Galley 1 replaces Work Boat Explorer #2. If we settle 3E, we can use Galley 1 to do a bit of exploration instead of Work Boat Explorer #2.


I actually got it so that Settler 3 is whippable on Turn 82, 1950 BC.

However, I'm going to say that in Mitchum's spreadsheet, we list Settler 3 as being completed on Turn 84, 1900 BC, so that we can get sufficient overflow Hammers to complete our Work Boat on the following turn.

This Work Boat then either becomes Work Boat Explorer #2 (on Turn 85, 1875 BC) or else can be used for netting for City 2 or City 3.


Turn 82, 1950 BC screenshot: Settler 3 is whippable
Spoiler :
 

Attachments

  • SIP pBar-fastWB-Wrkr-earlyGalley BC-2025.CivBeyondSwordSave
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  • SIP pBar-fastWB-Wrkr-earlyGalley BC-1950.CivBeyondSwordSave
    109.8 KB · Views: 49
  • SIP pBar-fastWB-Wrkr-earlyGalley BC-1900.CivBeyondSwordSave
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  • OSS Spreadsheet8.zip
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The way I see it, we could still end up SIP if someone comes up with an ideal SIP test, if some of the PHers are swayed by Dhoom's ideas or an upcoming test run from LC blows us away. I think we're all man enough (sorry Ras :D) to understand that every decision can't go our way and if we wait for consensus we may never start. Until I've actually moved that settler, SIP is still on the table.

I'll start working on a PPP through BW per shyuhe's suggestion. Build order will obviously go worker -> wb. Tech path will go Fishing -> Mining -> BW. Worker will farm Corn followed by mining the GL Hill. I'll have to figure out when to road the Corn for the +1:health: while still ensuring that citizens can work improved tiles.

I guess I'll have to play around with citizen assignment to optimize (not maximize) research.

@ LC After working the clams for 5 turns while building the worker, did you do anything else unusual? Or did your citizens maximize food (i.e. corn -> clam (or GLFor?) -> GL Mine (once improved).

EDIT: X-post with Dhoom.
 
That sounds good, shyuhe. We have to pick something, so let's try to proceed with a proper PPP for PH. I would really like to review the test saves and discussion properly before posting an opinion, but won't be able to do so until tmr evening most likely. Feel bad to not offer more, given how hotly contested this debate is, but it's really hard to keep up having missed ten days of testing. :(
 
@ LC After working the clams for 5 turns while building the worker, did you do anything else unusual? Or did your citizens maximize food (i.e. corn -> clam (or GLFor?) -> GL Mine (once improved).
I'm not working the clams for 5t anymore. It's all growth. Wkr in 18t. SImplest stuff imaginable. I'll check again tomorrow to see if I tweaked anywhere along the way.
 
@LC

Can you post your saves before you go to bed? It looks like it's working now. I'm mainly interested in Pot54 but feel free to upload any you see as worth comparing.
 
@Dhoom - how is the whip anger stacked in that save? I.e., how many turns is it for each :mad: to go away from T82?
It's identical to Dh #247, since I based this test off of Dh #247 and the games only deviate in the last 20 turns or so. That gives us 20 "Whip unhappy turns" on Turn 82, 1950 BC (using Mitchum's terminology), since I still 1-pop-whipped a Lighthouse.


EDIT:
Can you post your saves before you go to bed? It looks like it's working now.
Oops, sorry, that's my fault. I "faked" the upload functionality by making my linked files appear similar to file attachments on CFC. The files are actually externally-hosted.
 
Dhoom, what's your sequence for the earlier worker?
I just saw this comment now. I'm not sure which test run you are talking about, so I'll list a few:
SIP: Work the Corn while building a Barracks and growing to Size 2. Build a Work Boat as soon as Fishing comes in, on Turn 10. On Turn 11, at Size 2, work the Unnetted Clam and PHFor until the Work Boat is completed. Net the Clam on Turn 22 and then work the Netted Clam and the Corn while building a Worker until Turn 37, 3075 BC, when Worker 1 is completed.

This approach corresponds to Dh #214, Dh #247, and Dh #310.


PH: Work the Corn while building a Worker until completion, then immediately start building a Granary, since we researched Pottery first. Worker 1 is completed on Turn 19, 3525 BC (18 turns plus 1 turn to move to the PH). Note that I had to research Mining next, in order to keep the Worker busy (no point in getting an early Worker if it will stop work after Farming the Corn).

This approach corresponds to Dh #269.


SIP: Build a Worker while working the Corn. When Fishing comes in on Turn 10, switch to building a Work Boat and work the PHFor. When the Work Boat is completed on Turn 22, 3450 BC, net the Clam and work the Netted Clam while finishing the Worker. The Worker is completed on Turn 32, 3200 BC.

This approach corresponds to Dh #261.
 
Oh Mitchum :rolleyes: :cool:

I am fine with both sites honnestly. I think we are about to loose both Dhoom and LC to madness, and it seems a Pakistan call center is about to get into trouble too :p
 
I'll update my table with Dhoom's and LC's latest saves and post a PPP later today. My PPP is aimed toward LCs latest PH test where he learns Pottery before Sailing. Feel free to continue the PH vs. SIP debate if you desire. I can always modify my PPP accordingly.
 
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