Hmm, I don't understand the move with the scout...
We will not settle NW of lake, no matter what? It's ~8 water tiles, two turns delay, and we miss the fish and one corn. And the tile N of lake is very weak long term, yes? So what could possibly result from moving scout NW-W that will stop us from settling 1S? We could save a spot in the north for another city.
I would favor scout move S-SE. This will enable us to decide settlement:
1W - if sea resource two tiles in the water to the east
1SE - if nice resource 2S of forest hill
1S - as planned
Ok, ok, I just wanted object to the PPP for the sake of objection