SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

bcool said:

ETA for education ~13 turns

paper we have 936-441 left
education we have 2808

bulb gets ~1665

so we need 1638 after modifiers research

we produce ~78 sustainable research per turn and we have ~110 gold
at 100% we produce 198 at a cost of 105 gold

I expect we will get 150 gold from selling maps and maybe 50 more from begging or the machinery trade

so 300 gold gets us 594 research with deficit spending, then 78 sustainable research...

1638 / 1.2 = 1365 raw research needed

1365 - 594 = 771
then 771 / 78 = 10 turns

So I estimate we will get education in 13 turns (3 100% research turns followed by 10 turns with no significant gold influxes)

We cut this down by about 1.5 turns for every 100 gold we get. (beyond the 200 I estimated)

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OK, this looks like a job for optimization with my spreadsheet. I'll have a go at it tomorrow, but I will be largely offline this weekend, so will have to leave things in bc's capable hands.

Kaitzilla said:

Well, if we trade for Ghandi's map to remove the fog, will his missing city show up in our vision?

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We need to make sure we still have enough espionage points to see their production and units. We need to trade maps before our next tech steal. I also want to make sure that we have vision into all of Gandhi's cities to ensure that he does not have the wizard.

bcool said:

Continue to make friends with North and Western Witches. Trade with South but don't go out of my way to make friends (hopefully they will be our opponents in the UN elections), Deny Eastern witches everything (still expecting to kill them with a later war)

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This is probably unrealistic, but it would be great to found a city blocking Gandhi into his spoke and gifting it to Mansa Musa, if we can build it close enough to one of his cities. This will hinder Gandhi's expansion and population growth as well help Mansa's population, in hopes of keeping Mansa as our UN opponent.

If we can bribe any witches to cancel deals with East witches, it will help to keep them hated. I don't want anyone making friends with fav civs or trades to eventually give us diplo hits for declaring war on the East witches.

This is probably unrealistic, but it would be great to found a city blocking Gandhi into his spoke and gifting it to Mansa Musa, if we can build it close enough to one of his cities. This will hinder Gandhi's expansion and population growth as well help Mansa's population, in hopes of keeping Mansa as our UN opponent.

If we can bribe any witches to cancel deals with East witches, it will help to keep them hated. I don't want anyone making friends with fav civs or trades to eventually give us diplo hits for declaring war on the East witches.

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What is unrealistic? The war? You can do amazing things with a dip into nationalism and/or slavery during a later GA. Draft 18 muskets and quietly begin building ~10 trebs with HE city (or knights and whip siege out elsewhere). We can easily take out the eastern witches without a dramatic cost to our tech path. In fact we probably can accelerate with the gold from city captures and pillaging.

shulec said:

We need to make sure we still have enough espionage points to see their production and units. We need to trade maps before our next tech steal. I also want to make sure that we have vision into all of Gandhi's cities to ensure that he does not have the wizard.

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I'll double check the numbers when I can get home, but I'm pretty sure with taoism the machinery steal will be on the order of 300-400 espionage so we will still have 2000+ espionage. So I suspect city visibility won't be an issue.

bcool said:

What is unrealistic? The war? You can do amazing things with a dip into nationalism and/or slavery during a later GA. Draft 18 muskets and quietly begin building ~10 trebs with HE city (or knights and whip siege out elsewhere). We can easily take out the eastern witches without a dramatic cost to our tech path. In fact we probably can accelerate with the gold from city captures and pillaging.

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I think he is speaking the same idea (more refined and has a definite goal this time) as I had...giving cities between AI's to stunt expansion. As far as I remember, you said it was risky given the 9.5 tiles limit.

I agree with 95% of the rough PPP that Bcool has posted.

I'd say consider building a Tao Missionary in Gems City with 8 or 9 hammers, then whip the next turn, then whip the forge the turn after that, and get a large overflow into AP. It can spread Taoism down to Isengarde faster than Stone City.

Since no South Witch stack of doom was spotted, I will stop calling for war units for a while. We are in a good spot to crank out lots of nice buildings.


Speculations:

If we are going to keep GPfarm busy so Washington can pop a Great Engineer, it can't run any specialists for the next 20 turns or so. Soooo, whip some buildings like forge/courthouse/elephant/galley? Wait those last 2 aren't buildings. Maybe roll the dice a little and spice Washington with 2 scientists and take our chances with the Random Number Generator? Then would could skip whipping things in GPfarm and start adding scientists right away.

Also, if the two war elephants fail in some kind of hilled archer epic disaster, there is always the switch to fuedalism/theocracy for 9/8xp mounted unit.

South Witches seem to be headed towards UN opponent status with Mansa blocking Monty in like that. The closed border east witches are surprising me staying with the pack in tech. I figured the lack of tech trading would hurt them more.

We should try to convert Ghenghis to Taoism if possible. He cares about heathens, seems to spread religion, and it won't affect our spying on the north witches because our trap city belongs to Elizabeth.

We might be able to tentatively start constructing suspected AI personality table soon. Not many AI are switching to their favorite civic - slavery, organized religion, hereditary rule, theocracy yet.

Kaitzilla said:

We should try to convert Ghenghis to Taoism if possible. He cares about heathens, seems to spread religion, and it won't affect our spying on the north witches because our trap city belongs to Elizabeth.

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Is that an observation of the personality of Genghis in this game?

Kaitzilla said:

We might be able to tentatively start constructing suspected AI personality table soon. Not many AI are switching to their favorite civic - slavery, organized religion, hereditary rule, theocracy yet.

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I am already on the job and I didn't notice anything new and interesting. At one moment, I thought Lizzy had +5 HR favorite civic (reducing to three possibilities), but my eyes mocked me.

Soon enough, I will try to compile probabilistic tables I wanted to do before my turn-set.
BTW, Kaitzilla, I may need one save from you: the turn when you switched to taoism.

Another aspect I forgot to mention: fake Gandhi seems to have an interest in spreading multiple religions (Hinduism and Christianism) in most of his cities. He may have a proclivity towards culture.
Resembling much to the real Gandhi, but with a small obsessive need to build wonders. The choice of Temple of Artemis without marble smells wonderhogger.

mabraham said:

Is that an observation of the personality of Genghis in this game?

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Ya, he was building missionarys when he only had 3 cities.
I also saw more missionarys from him at some later date I can't recall.
He demanded that we convert to his religion.
And his -diplo with those of different religions is larger than the other AI except Monty.

Tachywaxon said:

I am already on the job and I didn't notice anything new and interesting. At one moment, I thought Lizzy had +5 HR favorite civic (reducing to three possibilities), but my eyes mocked me.

Soon enough, I will try to compile probabilistic tables I wanted to do before my turn-set.
BTW, Kaitzilla, I may need one save from you: the turn when you switched to taoism.

Another aspect I forgot to mention: fake Gandhi seems to have an interest in spreading multiple religions (Hinduism and Christianism) in most of his cities. He may have a proclivity towards culture.
Resembling much to the real Gandhi, but with a small obsessive need to build wonders. The choice of Temple of Artemis without marble smells wonderhogger.

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I have the save for the end of T118 after I made the switch to Taoism if you need it.

Kaitzilla said:

I have the save for the end of T118 after I made the switch to Taoism if you need it.

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It will be a pleasure. Thanks.

Ok, here is the save to the real game T118. Be careful with it.

I think I am near to make a breakthrough about fake Montezuma true personality.
He may be Mansa Musa after all. Just wait, I will make test games.

Thanks Kaitzilla.

Cool, I will take it down in an hour just so no one accidentally clicks on it.

Kaitzilla said:

Cool, I will take it down in an hour just so no one accidentally clicks on it.

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Correct and legit. I already got it and made my mind.
If I am right about MM, I would like to take the full charge of revealing true personalities.
I know bcool made a suggestion about subdivision of work (which flopped...completely) and I would like to pursue towards that direction since I am already advanced in my researches about random personalities. Of course, I stop nobody to guess and make useful notifications.

mabraham said:

Edu requires either two bulbs, or a bulb and significant chunk of normal beakers. I'm not advocating delaying Edu, I'm advocating maximising the return from the bulb, by maximising population, probably by applying the bulb to Edu as late as possible so that our natural beakers that turn finally finish it. This combines with the desire to grow the population to prepare whips of universities. See below. So when we start Edu, we need to observe what the multiplier is between the raw beakers our civ produces and the amount that goes onto the bar. Then we can judge the turn when we will need to apply the bulb, then we target our growth to that turn.

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Agree 100%.

There is synergy with growing cities to whip Universities and maximizing the bulb as a result.

The Great Person bulb icon will display the precise number of beakers of Education that will be bulbed. We pull the bulb trigger when the remaining beakers to complete Eduction minus the bulb amount is less or equal to our beaker rate, including beaker bonuses.

mabraham said:

In practice, we might choose some slow building of some universities and some fast whipping of others, depending on the roles of the cities and their base hammer output.

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I would be against slow building of Universities. We want all cities building Universities (to unlock Oxford University) to complete (whip) their University builds in 2t, if that's possible.

We might consider slow building for a city with slow growth and high Hammer rate, but I doubt we have such a city where building a University makes sense. Our leader is Philosophical, so I can't image that we can't grow enough cities fast enough to whip all required Universities the turn after Education completes.

We want to start Oxford University 2t after Education is completed. We must ensure we don't give/trade away Stone less than 10t before we plan to start Oxford University.

Sun Tzu Wu

Agree with bcool's Plan so far.

Sun Tzu Wu

bcool said:

What is unrealistic? The war? You can do amazing things with a dip into nationalism and/or slavery during a later GA. Draft 18 muskets and quietly begin building ~10 trebs with HE city (or knights and whip siege out elsewhere). We can easily take out the eastern witches without a dramatic cost to our tech path. In fact we probably can accelerate with the gold from city captures and pillaging.

Click to expand...

I meant that my idea about putting a blocking settler was unrealistic. The tie in to the quote was poor.

Tachywaxon said:

I think he is speaking the same idea (more refined and has a definite goal this time) as I had...giving cities between AI's to stunt expansion. As far as I remember, you said it was risky given the 9.5 tiles limit.

Click to expand...

If we were to try this, I would suggest 3E4N of Zapotec.