SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

Once again, thanks to bcool for correcting me.

I tested it out and with espionage, we can convert religion or civics via espionage/spy missions that can be done immediately after the AI changes their religion or civic.
 
There is a window in which there is increased risk of spy flipping or trade/requesting an the AI to come to Taoism or out of Free religion. Based on the turns below listed by bcool, I recommend that we not change the AI's religion or Civics between turns 178-182. If we flip them into Taoism or out of Free religion on these turns, we will not be able to flip them back in time for our vote if they revert back in turn 183 to 187.

Alternatively, we may want to try to flip them into a new civic on turn 183, just to ensure that they won't go to free religion.

Specifically, Genghis won't need to turned since Theocracy is his favorite and his is unlikely to go to Free Religion.

Liz, Monty and Gandhi should all be open to a switch to theocracy.

Once again, thanks to bcool for correcting me.

I tested it out and with espionage, we can convert religion or civics via espionage/spy missions that can be done immediately after the AI changes their religion or civic.

So the upshot for playing later today is that frogdude should take reasonable actions to keep people in Taoism and expect that timing is not an issue so long as we keep spy supply up.
 
Once again, thanks to bcool for correcting me.

I tested it out and with espionage, we can convert religion or civics via espionage/spy missions that can be done immediately after the AI changes their religion or civic.

Sounds like we should assume that the converse is also possible. ie: even if we flip their civics on eg: T184, the 5turn revolt timer isn't enacted and they could voluntarily flip their religion.
Shame. Would've been fun.

About to start playing.
 
Sounds like we should assume that the converse is also possible. ie: even if we flip their civics on eg: T184, the 5turn revolt timer isn't enacted and they could voluntarily flip their religion.
Shame. Would've been fun.

About to start playing.

No the converse is not possible.

If we switch their religion or civics they can not switch for 5 turns.

sorry okay, the civic switching timer is independent of the religion switching timer.
 
Sounds like we should assume that the converse is also possible. ie: even if we flip their civics on eg: T184, the 5turn revolt timer isn't enacted and they could voluntarily flip their religion.
Shame. Would've been fun.

About to start playing.


He meant "Sounds like we should *not*..."
 
I believe many team members would be grateful for any news of the turn set progress after the end of each turn (which includes IBT information about AI actions). Some players starting with shulec did this and others either tried to do so or did so subsequent to his precedent starting turn set.

I plan to be monitoring this thread this evening for any news about the turn set.

In any case, good luck frogdude!

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Sounds like we should assume that the converse is also possible. ie: even if we flip their civics on eg: T184, the 5turn revolt timer isn't enacted and they could voluntarily flip their religion.
Shame. Would've been fun.

About to start playing.

Good luck Frogdude!
 
I'm chatting with mabraham while he physically watches frogdude play.

I believe it is T174 and Ragnar sent half of his stack into our borders (sword, horse archer, pike and 5 trebs), They slaughtered them with the knights and we are ~8 xp from the next GG.

spy near Madurai got caught.

I don't know much more.

T175 now I believe
Ragnar is consolidating a new stack 3 bez, pike, 3lb, 2xb, treb, 8 knights (NW of cimmerian)
taoism spread to gandhi in 1 city the other missionary failed.
we lost our caravel (but it killed one caravel before it died on defense)
Genghis has a Great Merchant

mabraham had to go so I don't think I'll get any more info from frogdude who is focused on playing.

Asoka's navy attacked and died on our galleons and gave us a GG in Fur City :)

Genghis flipped back to Judaism, but a spy in Bactrian flipped him back to Taoism successfully. The spy will have plenty of time to get back to flip him again if he switches
again.

Patali falls no losses (we killed 2 guerilla II longbows + another longbow and spear on a hill without a loss -- got to love CRIII trebs)

Our Great Merchant has been born :)

T??? Varanasi falls (1 revolt attempt fails, 2nd succeeds)

Counterattack by Asoka kills a pikeman but we hold Patali and Varanasi. Asoka leaves just a lone swordsman in Bombay in his desperate attempt to gain back his cities. Sadly we can capitalize on this.

T178
Merchant trade mission for 1500 gold
bought our first boat
Indra is being threatened by a large stack from ragnar but ragnar isn't advancing just yet (5+ knights, 3-4 berserkers, a few other support units, 2 treb)?
No one is teching gunpowder
Mass Media due to finish T179
switched to bureaucracy and universal sufferage

frogdude is taking a break and I'm going to bed. I'm pretty convinced we don't need to tech gunpowder at this point.
 
I'm chatting with mabraham while he physically watches frogdude play.

I believe it is T174 and Ragnar sent half of his stack into our borders (sword, horse archer, pike and 5 trebs), They slaughtered them with the knights and we are ~8 xp from the next GG.

spy near Madurai got caught.

I don't know much more.

T175 now I believe
Ragnar is consolidating a new stack 3 bez, pike, 3lb, 2xb, treb, 8 knights (NW of cimmerian)
taoism spread to gandhi in 1 city the other missionary failed.
we lost our caravel (but it killed one caravel before it died on defense)
Genghis has a Great Merchant

mabraham had to go so I don't think I'll get any more info from frogdude who is focused on playing.

Asoka's navy attacked and died on our galleons and gave us a GG in Fur City :)

Genghis flipped back to Judaism, but a spy in Bactrian flipped him back to Taoism successfully. The spy will have plenty of time to get back to flip him again if he switches again.


Ah, brave caravel died a hero! GG born in Fur City, that is perfect for us. Now we will have fast galleons and a pair of 4 promo knights for wizard :)
 
Did that horse archer we have protecting Dead Wizard City have 9 xp?

It might be worth making him one of the 2 mounted units to get the xp from the great general if he does. Since the great general unit gets free upgrades, then a horse archer would benefit more from that than a knight.
 
Ah, brave caravel died a hero! GG born in Fur City, that is perfect for us. Now we will have fast galleons and a pair of 4 promo knights for wizard :)

Getting another Great General, especially in Fur City, is great news.

I think we would prefer to add XPs to several Knights rather than to the Galleons. We just need normal speed Galleons built soon enough to take the Knight through the final five plots of ocean to Emerald City. At the very least, the Great General can add 4 XP each to five 9+ XP Knights between Fur City and New York (with any hope of upgrading to Cuirassiers) or Teotihuacan (if none), but attachment is best done sooner rather than later as a GG is vulnerable unattached.

Like the Knights, the Galleons simply need to get to the 1-W of Teotihuacan redenvous plot by the end of t186, move and attack turn t187 and optionally promote and attack again, if that seems to be a wise course of action.

The Horse Archer in New York already has 11 XP. I agree with Kaitzilla and bcool that it should be the target of the Great General attachment + at least four Knights. If we can find at least four 11 XP Knights, the GG attachment could add 2-3 XP to all 9 mounted units and any Knight 1-2 XP short of a level 5 promotion can be reserved for attacking Longbowmen (if successful it will gain a level 5 promotion = Pinch) and it may get a shot at the Wizard in t188, assuming the Wizard survived the t187 attack.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Did that horse archer we have protecting Dead Wizard City have 9 xp?

It might be worth making him one of the 2 mounted units to get the xp from the great general if he does. Since the great general unit gets free upgrades, then a horse archer would benefit more from that than a knight.

Is our time-table (availability of Universal Suffrage) forcing us to add 4 XP to the three Galleons? If we can build these Galleons early enough, even if it means paying the single turn price of 4.5 Wealth per Hammer, that may be worthwhile to allow all of the Great General's 20 XP to be applied to only mounted units and no Galleons. Only two of the Galleons should be 1.5x priced; the first can be built at 3 Wealth per Hammer, since it is already under construction.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Is our time-table (availability of Universal Suffrage) forcing us to add 4 XP to the three Galleons? If we can build these Galleons early enough, even if it means paying the single turn price of 4.5 Wealth per Hammer, that may be worthwhile to allow all of the Great General's 20 XP to be applied to only mounted units and no Galleons. Only two of the Galleons should be 1.5x priced; the first can be built at 3 Wealth per Hammer, since it is already under construction.

Sun Tzu Wu

No one is teching gunpowder, so we may want to turn off research after mass media and get espionage and/or gold to buy more units.

If we do this then I don't think it makes sense to give experience to wizard killing units. I would rather just send a few more knights. With the extra gold from turning off research we could buy a knight or 2 in Wizard Killing City (New York). For that to be an option we need to buy 4 boats and need at least 1 fast galleon.
 
No one is teching gunpowder, so we may want to turn off research after mass media and get espionage and/or gold to buy more units.

If we do this then I don't think it makes sense to give experience to wizard killing units. I would rather just send a few more knights. With the extra gold from turning off research we could buy a knight or 2 in Wizard Killing City (New York). For that to be an option we need to buy 4 boats and need at least 1 fast galleon.

We can research Gunpowder after Mass Media and give five Knights Pinch promotion via 20 XP from the Great General attachment. Pinch subtracts 25 % defense from the Wizard and should be a devastating promotion for the Wizard of Oz. The Wizard of Oz probably won't be a able to survive more than 3 attacks from Knight Combat I + Combat II + Amphibious + Pinch units.

I see no need to build a fourth Galleon and three more Knights at 4+ XP each.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
We can research Gunpowder after Mass Media and give five Knights Pinch promotion via 20 XP from the Great General attachment. Pinch subtracts 25 % defense from the Wizard and should be a devastating promotion for the Wizard of Oz. The Wizard of Oz probably won't be a able to survive more than 3 attacks from Knight Combat I + Combat II + Amphibious + Pinch units.

I see no need to build a fourth Galleon and three more Knights at 4+ XP each.

Sun Tzu Wu

the pinch promotion doesn't make a big difference.
If we compare it to an amphibious CIII

an amphibious CIII knight against a airship weakened wizards has detailed odds of

wins 1.49%

1.88 % 2 hp wizard
3.94 % 15 hp wizard
7.74 % 28
13.91 % 41
21.88 % 58
27.52 % 67
21.68 % 80 (chance of not hurting the wizard)

versus
an amphibious CII pinch knight has detailed odds of...

1.64% win percent

loses
2.00 % 2
4.14 % 15
8.00 % 28
14.16 % 41
21.92 % 54
27.14 % 67
21.07 % 80 chance of not hurting the wizard

I think the pinch promotion on 5 knights isn't worth the cost of researching gunpowder.

If we don't tech gunpowder we can give a knight combat III

Is 1872 research really worth 0.5% better odds on the combats? (and we are not going to get much value out of late drafted muskets if we decide to switch back to nationhood).

Instead of researching gunpowder I would rather have the flexibility of more gold and/or espionage.
 
the pinch promotion doesn't make a big difference.
If we compare it to an amphibious CIII

an amphibious CIII knight against a airship weakened wizards has detailed odds of

wins 1.49%

1.88 % 2 hp wizard
3.94 % 15 hp wizard
7.74 % 28
13.91 % 41
21.88 % 58
27.52 % 67
21.68 % 80 (chance of not hurting the wizard)

versus
an amphibious CII pinch knight has detailed odds of...

1.64% win percent

loses
2.00 % 2
4.14 % 15
8.00 % 28
14.16 % 41
21.92 % 54
27.14 % 67
21.07 % 80 chance of not hurting the wizard

I think the pinch promotion on 5 knights isn't worth the cost of researching gunpowder.

If we don't tech gunpowder we can give a knight combat III

Is 1872 research really worth 0.5% better odds on the combats? (and we are not going to get much value out of late drafted muskets if we decide to switch back to nationhood).

Instead of researching gunpowder I would rather have the flexibility of more gold and/or espionage.

> 21.88 % 58

Should be:

21.88 % 54

Damage inflicted is usually a linear step function, but 58/100 is off the slope of this step function. It should be 54.

There doesn't seem to be much difference between these two sets of odds, because the latter wears down The Wizard of Oz down faster and requires fewer attacks on average to kill the Wizard. The reason is where there is a small difference it favors Pinch over Combat III:

Code:
         Pinch C3
W 100 HP 0.04 0.03 \ 
W 40-70  0.64 0.59  > Pinch is best in killing in first attack, 1.64% vs 1.49%
W 10 HP  0.96 0.88 /
===============
W 00 HP = 80 HP Damage 01.64 01.49
L 02 HP = 78 HP Damage 02.00 01.88
L 15 HP = 65 HP Damage 04.14 03.94
L 28 HP = 52 HP Damage 08.00 07.74
L 41 HP = 39 HP Damage 14.16 13.91
L 54 HP = 26 HP Damage 21.92 21.88
L 67 HP = 13 HP Damage 27.14 27.52
L 80 HP = 00 HP Damage 21.01 21.63

Total Damage inflicted x 100:
Knight C2 Amphibious Pinch: 131.20 + 156.00 + 269.10 + 416.00 + 552.24 + 569.92 + 352.82 + 0.00 = 2447.28
Knight Combat3 Amphibious: 119.20 + 146.64 + 256.10 + 402.48 + 542.49 + 568.88 + 357.76 + 0.00 = 2393.55

Average Damage inflicted in first attack:
Knight C2 Amphibious Pinch: 2447.28 / 100 = 24.47
Knight Combat3 Amphibious: 2393.55 / 100 = 23.94

So Pinch will 24.47 - 23.94 = 0.53 HP more damage is the first attack than Combat III. In terms of percentages, Pinch's extra 0.53 HP is 2.21% more HP damage than Combat III.

I can add Pinch to another 100 samples and Combat III to a third 100 samples. Do you think this experiment is would be necessary to show which one is better?

Obviously Pinch causes significantly more damage.

In any case, we will probably be able to steal Gunpowder soon, but even if we can't it can be researched in 2-3 turns.

Musketmen can also be built; they do not need to be drafted. However, Nationhood is still an option, and Musketmen can be drafted as early as five turns after adopting Universal Suffrage, assuming Gunpowder can be acquired (stolen) that early.

Sun Tzu Wu
 
Hi all,
Apologies for the lack of updates. It's tough to concentrate on everything and provide commentary at the same time. It's current most of the way through T179.

Main highlights have been Ragnar splitting half his original doomstack and moving it forwards, and retreating the other half back.
The stack that went forwards didn't fare so well for him. We thank him for the XP and the great general that conveniently popped in Fur City and is now safely in Wizard City. The one that went back has milled around a bit, healed, and now appears to be on the march back towards us. Current location of it is 2SW of Indra.

On the war front we have taken Patali, Varanasi & Hyperabad.

We have an assault stack on Madras that has started bombing (down to 64%, 5 trebs on site). It has 2*CR3Macemen, a double woodsman maceman, the megamedic, and a crossbowman. So this is just a matter of time, but could be a couple of turns.

Patali is defended by an injured Crossbowman & an injured crossbowman (and a knight from gengis!). I'm not worried though, as the only units that can threaten are the Bombay defenders. Said defenders are 1 swordsman, one treb on 4HP, and one treb on 0.2HP.

The Pink attack force has been busy, so won't be much good for awhile. 4 out of 6 Knights survive, but most are reasonably injured.

The naval assault from the mainland went well. There are 6 trebs & 9 Macemen on boats E-NE from Bombay. We have the possibility of splitting this up into a Bombay attack force (potentially attacking from the boat to save time if he doesn't reinforce over the turn end?) and the rest to calcutta.

Given we have the GG in the bank and onsite, do we still need to buy the Galleons on turn 179 & 180, or should I buy them on turn 180 & 182 (saving of around 180g per galleon).


On the Indra defense front we have 8 knights (+ another a turn away), 5 macemen (plus another a turn away), a crossbowman, a longbowman and a catapult all behind walls. Some of those defending knights will shortly have to leave on a wizard killing mission soon.
His stack is 2 squares SW (across the river) and has 9 knights, a pikeman, 3 beserkers, 2 crossbowmen, 2 longbowmen and 2 trebs. Other than 2 knights, pretty much everyone else has been sniped by airships.

I don't plan on playing any more tonight while we figure out for sure the wizard killing plan.
Also I need mabraham to debug his spreadsheet, as I have followed it to date, but I appear to be currently producing 3 more hammers on this turn than I'm meant to.

Spies have flipped Gengis back to Taoism after he decided judaism was a good idea. We had a spy caught in Mathura, and another one lost in a rebellion attempt in Varanasi.
We only have 518EPs left on East, and the rebellion attempt in Bombay in the next turn or two will eat up the bulk of that - currently 416 cost at -30% stationary.


On the sad news, opps don't look cooperative on the gunpowder front. Mass media should come in next turn though.
 
Top Bottom