SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

I vote for Option 1. It has better overall combat odds of beating the wizard as we get more promos onto the knights. I'm personally willing to take our 0.001% chance of loss.
It also keeps the boats more consolidated which comes with less risk that our Galleons get into fights with stray East caravels

I am very impressed you managed to find a way to get all 12 knights there by T187 though for option 2.
 
PPP looks great. Almost everything we are doing is overkill or insurance.

I don't much mind which wizard option we take. The difference in probability of wizard kill (whether or not he recruits another longbow), safety of units in transit (if there's a submarine or pile of Ragnar caravels) and peace of mind (we can vote for ourselves with the wizard already dead) is negligible. Option one has more style points, which are also of negligible value.

The only thing that might make me prefer option 2 would be a study showing that for x the number of longbows in Emerald City, if after about 12-(x+1) combats we've knocked the wizard below longbow strength we'd have higher killing odds from waiting for the wizard to heal from promotions between turns so that he's the lead defender again. There'd be a huge number of unknowns in that study (like how much damage the wizard finally took, and how many promotions he gains, and whether he takes Medic, Guerrilla or combat promotions). I think that for the likely value of x=3, that the chance of 8 combats achieving the precondition is negligible.

There is a third option of attacking with 9 knights on T187 with three more available next turn if required. That offers more peace of mind than option 1 after T187, but lower peace of mind beforehand, and a lower total chance of success - which would still be very close to certain.
 
I have been watching the "Progress and Results" page for a while now, and want to share some thoughts. This is clearly a guilty pleasure and provide no benefit whatsoever.

That being said, here is what I think.

Phoenix Rising, Misfit Gypsy Nuts and Maple Sporks have all finished. This can be easily surmised from looking at the "Team Thread Posts" page. These three teams all have a high number of Visitor posts. Here is a screenshot I took a while ago:

Spoiler :


TNT, XTeam, and Unusual Suspects appear to still be playing, but have all surpassed our expected victory date.

Fifth Element seems to be going for a culture victory. They are well below 150,000 total culture, so they are out.

Team Roadkill seems to be low in culture, power and score. They have been playing EXTREMELY slow and I am writing them off.

That leaves OSS and Plastic Ducks. So... We are in the medal round. Time for just one "What If?" Well, what if we weren't so damn good, and oh, yeah, that damned GLH!

I think we are assured at least third place. Since PD is clearly going militaristic, and I assume Domination. We can't compare to their progress since we are going "peacefullish". They are playing 2-3 turns per turnset, so I assume they are engaged in a multi-front war. They are hot on the trail of Phoenix Rising, and have an SGOTM history of being strong competitors. I am assuming Phoenix Rising went militaristic, and am guessing PD can best them. It will be close as to whether we will beat them.

I think OSS may be going militaristic as well, but they seem to be so far back it is hard to tell exactly what direction they are going. I still see them as a threat, but they have a heavy burden coming over the next 12 days.

So... enough counting of chickens before they hatch, but I think we still have a reasonable chance at getting the Gold.

Anyway, I just love this useless analysis.:D
 
bcool said:
PPP final draft posted. Please give me feedback and tell me which of the 2 wizard killing options you prefer.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11079010&postcount=3527

I hope to play in ~20 hours from this edit
Click to expand...


I like option 2. If we can hit the Wizard T187 with 11 amphibious knights and 1 non-amphibious knight, then we will certainly kill him. If not, we have a chance next turn to possibly delay a diplo victory vote 6 more turns if necessary. I don't think waiting a turn will improve our odds that much with an extra ampibious promotion and another pair of combat III's.

The total combined strength of our stack would rise from something like 142 strength to 147 strength.
 
Hah, most everyone likes option 1. I guess it doesn't really matter, they will both surely beat Wizard. I'm fine with either option really.
 
I am happier with Wizard attack option 2 because you could postpone the vote if something weird happens. If you raise the DV vote, and say, delete a few knights by accident :lol:, we get disqualified for not be able to kill the wiz.

So, knowing the wizard is dead 1T before the vote is a safer bet IMO.

(I know you won't delete the units, but a disastrous event like that is always possible :D)
 
frogdude said:
From a game theory point of view, if it is commonly known that the saves dates posted are that of the last unfinished save, if you want to mess with other teams heads there are 2 strategies available:
  1. Have the save posted be as far away as possible from the winning date.
    In our case that means T182, when the true win date is T189. A team potentially looking at the save dates might think they need to beat T181 and take some risks to do this. Those risks might not pull off which might significantly blow out the win date to something hopefully past T189
  2. Have the save posted be one just before the victory.
    In our case, T188. This could cause a team looking at the save think that they have a couple more turns up their sleeve because they know that that isn't the 'last save'. Thus they might aim for a win in the early 190's rather than take a risk (which might work to try and post a T187/T188 win.

As is usually the case when there are two dominant opposing strategies, it is correct for us to randomly choose one of the above.
Click to expand...

So, will we "mess with other teams heads" ?

I like the option 2 frogdude brings up.

Let's confuse the enemy :clap:.

:cheers:

EDIT: btw, I like the "play in 20 hours" option better, 'cause I can't wait to start peeking other teams threads (will wait for a permit of course).
 
Wizard killing options
It occurs to me that I will most likely easily be able to tech gunpowder during T184, T185, T186, T187. If I do this with option 1 we will have I think 2 pinch knights instead of 2 of the Combat III knights. the opportunity to upgrade 3 knights to either pinch or combat III. Save promos for the middle of the fight.

It is hard to get pinch knights with option 2 since I would have to finish gunpowder by the end of T186 and I would only have 1 pinch knight I believe.

So I guess I will go with option 1, since as most people seem to think we are splitting hairs as both options will slay the wizard with 99.99% odds.

Wizard combat will likely go then with option 1...

Combat II amphibious knights until the wizard hopefully is more wounded but not ducking below the longbows. Then upgrade a 2 CII amphibious knights to pinch and attempt to kill him outright. If that fails and he isn't ducking continue with 2 more pinch knights. If he ducks then I will upgrade any remaining knights to CIII and use them to to kill the longbows first, then the CII amphibious knights will finish the job. (depends a little bit on what health levels I see)

I expect I'll be able to post blow by blow accounts to keep everyone online at the time in suspense. :)

In regards to uploading, mabraham wanted an upload before I attempt the wizard, and then right after to see how our military strength compares to dips he has seen in other teams. I would rather flip a coin for the 2 options frogdude suggests for uploading. If the coin tells me not to upload the turn before we win, then I will note our military power in the graph in the game before I attack the wizard and after.
 
bcool said:
Wizard killing options
It occurs to me that I will most likely easily be able to tech gunpowder during T184, T185, T186, T187. If I do this with option 1 we will have I think 2 pinch knights instead of 2 of the Combat III knights.

It is hard to get pinch knights with option 2 since I would have to finish gunpowder by the end of T186 and I would only have 1 pinch knight I believe.

So I guess I will go with option 1, since as most people seem to think we are splitting hairs as both options will slay the wizard with 99.99% odds.

Wizard combat will likely go then with option 1...

Combat II amphibious knights until the wizard hopefully is more wounded but not ducking below the longbows. Then the 2 CII pinch amphibious knights attempt to kill him outright. If they fail, then combat II knights attempt to kill the longbows, if I get another shot at the wizard, then I will use the 2 Combat III knights.

I expect I'll be able to post blow by blow accounts to keep everyone online at the time in suspense. :)

In regards to uploading, mabraham wanted an upload before I attempt the wizard, and then right after to see how our military strength compares to dips he has seen in other teams. I would rather flip a coin for the 2 options frogdude suggests for uploading. If the coin tells me not to upload the turn before we win, then I will note our military power in the graph in the game before I attack the wizard and after.
Click to expand...

OK, spending our economy on pinch upgrades is better than almost anything else we can do.
 
Tested the idea that killing Asoka off would reduce our war weariness -- sadly it doesn't. The war weariness like espionage is shared with the team. So I'll take no special effort to kill off Asoka (although getting rid of his caravels will be nice so it is still a goal).
 
frogdude said:
From a game theory point of view, if it is commonly known that the saves dates posted are that of the last unfinished save, if you want to mess with other teams heads there are 2 strategies available:
  1. Have the save posted be as far away as possible from the winning date.
    In our case that means T182, when the true win date is T189. A team potentially looking at the save dates might think they need to beat T181 and take some risks to do this. Those risks might not pull off which might significantly blow out the win date to something hopefully past T189
  2. Have the save posted be one just before the victory.
    In our case, T188. This could cause a team looking at the save think that they have a couple more turns up their sleeve because they know that that isn't the 'last save'. Thus they might aim for a win in the early 190's rather than take a risk (which might work to try and post a T187/T188 win.

As is usually the case when there are two dominant opposing strategies, it is correct for us to randomly choose one of the above.
Click to expand...

If we want to play mind games, and I don't think it matters, a better alternative is to play t183 then upload it. Finish the game, but wait about a week to upload the winning save. We would still be prohibited from looking at other posts, but also no one would be allowed to post on our thread. Our number of visitor posts will not rise, suggesting that we are still playing. This would mislead others to think we are not finished.
 
shulec said:
If we want to play mind games, and I don't think it matters, a better alternative is to play t183 then upload it. Finish the game, but wait about a week to upload the winning save. We would still be prohibited from looking at other posts, but also no one would be allowed to post on our thread. Our number of visitor posts will not rise, suggesting that we are still playing. This would mislead others to think we are not finished.
Click to expand...


Hehe, we should just finish the game and post our win when we get it. I want to see others' game threads too! :D
 
end of T182
cease fire, movement, city builds, pillaging went reasonably well 66 gold in total.

beginning of T183, find out gandhi changed to free religion and slavery (gandhi at +9 with free religion will try to flip to theo T185 when spy has 10% discount)
monty changed to theo and slavery voluntarily

end T183 bought a catapult in fur for the possible defense of Indra... (not quite in the PPP fur has taoism so it is a bit better than buying it in indra)
159 from pillaging T183 in total
80 gold begged from mansa successfully. (he had 90)
great artist born for elizabeth who likely will send it to Boston for cultural bomb, we'll see

beginning T184
successfully flipped monty to taoism
asked elizabeth to change to free market civic
will ask genghis next turn to change his civics with radio tech trade
west won't voluntarily switch since they can't due to their switch end of T182 not sure if I will be able to ask them on T187 or not, Gandhi we want changed to theocracy, and I will change something of Monty's civics on T87 if can't ask him.

ending T184 DoW with east
we have +10 with gandhi he is back to friendly
+15 with monty
(monty gave us the +2 for supplying him with resources)
gandhi still only +1 for resources
Genghis we are +15
elizabeth +11

beginning of T185
Tonsberg has fallen and is ours no losses.
Genghis won't switch civics since he did so 1200AD T180 I believe? will try again next turn to switch him with tech trade
gold from tonsberg will let us finish gunpowder this turn.
pillaged ragnar's horses (so the stacks will not grow any more knights, his stack is still hurt but is coming for us I believe near Indra, will enter our culture next turn perhaps)
Gandhi successfully flipped to theocracy (we are now +12 with gandhi)
40 gold beg from shaka failed

beginning T186
ragnar's stack retreated to asoka's city, the west witches threaten it with 2 war elephants :)
genghis changed civics to free market with gunpowder trade with him.
Gandhi switched to hinduism! we are back to +10 with him (resources went up by 1 and we have -1 for heathen religion, we are friendly with him)
diplo screen shows gandhi voting for us and we are winning the hypothetical vote 64.6%
switched to nationhood and hereditary rule
monty +16, Gandhi +10, Genghis +16, Elizabeth +13

beginning of T187
we are still shown to be winning the diplo victory by 64.5%
monty +17, genghis +16, gandi +10, elizabeth +13
GG attached but didn't work as I tested it, so we will only have 2 possible pinch knights
galleons loaded, airships in place
ragnar has 24 units in Mathura asoka's new capital

beginning of T188
we are still shown to be winning diplo vote (but might not matter this turn, I successfully voted for us)
killing wizard now will open with cII knight amphibious
dies... wizard down to 9.5/14
cII amphibious is at 4.41% and pinch knight is at 6.12% will use another cII amphibious
2nd dies but takes wizard down to 5.9/14 and he isn't hiding ! pinch knight has 61% odds on him
 
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