civ plotting against you

Most times it never happens, but when it does it can be just a turn away.
 
This message is generally a bit useless for many reasons.
The first and major reason being the AI doesn't really have a long or even medium turn plan, it basically weighs everything up each turn and make decisions each turn based on that so 1 turn they may be plotting against you, the next turn they may not be and the turn after that they may be plotting against you again etc. The AI doesn't for example get annoyed with you and then plan to attack you.i.e. build an army to attack you and then follow that plan through it is essentially opportunistic on each individual turn.
What the message really means is on that turn if all the factors were in it's favour it would have DoW'd you and may DoW you in the future if all the factors align in it's favour.

While it does seem like a useful warning sign it is generally useless because you should always assume every civ is plotting against you, even your best friend because given the right condition they would all DoW you on any given turn.
 
A more useful message is when shaka tells you Dido is launching a sneak attack against you. I was skeptical since she had a massive wall of positive modifiers, but sure enough, 3 turns later, I get the backstab is such an ugly word prompt and have to teach her a lesson.
 
"Plotting" doesn't even include they are planning on attacking at all, it includes them thinking of making world council votes they think you won't like.
 
I was reading that apparently a hidden AI opinion towards you (ie Hostile, Neutral, Guarded, Friendly) is Deceptive, which means that it appears that they're friendly, but they're actually Hostile. There are a few ways to identify this, if you know that they have good reason to be angry at you based on the game's mechanics but no red status show up in their diplomacy towards and they're all green (when they're Deceptive they hold back the reds) or when you're friendly but you can't trade without getting raped.

I bring this up because possibly the XYZ is plotting against you might reveal that they're being Deceptive towards you. Which I guess doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to attack you if you have an adequate military.

Personally, I would take any tip offs as a warning to build up your military. Any time somebody isn't happy with you, you're at risk of being invaded if you have an inadequate army. Only slouch off if you know that everybody's happy and you need your production and gold to go elsewhere.
 
I was reading that apparently a hidden AI opinion towards you (ie Hostile, Neutral, Guarded, Friendly) is Deceptive, which means that it appears that they're friendly, but they're actually Hostile. There are a few ways to identify this, if you know that they have good reason to be angry at you based on the game's mechanics but no red status show up in their diplomacy towards and they're all green (when they're Deceptive they hold back the reds) or when you're friendly but you can't trade without getting raped.

I bring this up because possibly the XYZ is plotting against you might reveal that they're being Deceptive towards you. Which I guess doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to attack you if you have an adequate military.

Personally, I would take any tip offs as a warning to build up your military. Any time somebody isn't happy with you, you're at risk of being invaded if you have an inadequate army. Only slouch off if you know that everybody's happy and you need your production and gold to go elsewhere.

Correct. "Plotting" in the context of civ5's diplo AI means that the particular AI is in APPROACH_DECEPTIVE stance towards the player, which in turn means that it is withholding specific negative modifiers (not showing them) and appearing as Friendly or Neutral when in fact it may be guarded or hostile. APPROACH_DECEPTIVE may or may not degenerate into something aggressive, depending on a multitude of other factors (that are considered turn by turn, but also within a mid-to-long term plan).

Source: CvDiplomacyAI.cpp inside the dll pack.
 
Yeah, the real test of deceptiveness is what trade terms they will accept.

A better "real test" is the sudden disappearance of usually resilient negative modifiers...
 
I ignore these Plotting Messages as I always have a Standing Army/Navy ready long before these pop up. As a result I get a lot of Plotting Messages and rarely any DoW's when the AI does the math and sees that it cannot easily defeat me. Secret of Civ to reveal to people that get DoW's a lot: Have defenses and an Army/Navy in place and don't antagonize the AI unless absolutely necessary.
 
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