Everything mentioned here makes sense, and Zen; my compliments for a great book recommendation, "Guns, germs and steel" by Jared Diamond is very interesting reading indeed.
The crucial meeting was of course the first, that between the Spanish and the Aztecs. We should not forget that the outcome of this confrontaton
could have ended differently.
It is true that the Spanish had a great technological advantage, but one should also consider that the Aztecs disposed over a organized, experienced army vastly superior in numbers.
Interestingly the Spanish and Aztecs showed a great similarity in many ways. Both were very militaristic, convinced that their mission in the world was to rule it, worshipping heroicism and willing to kill - a lot - for their empire, their ruler, their god. Both nations were also comparatively young, and had risen to power by supressing and exploiting other people.
The Aztec empire had two weaknesses. Because of theirr cruelty and greed, they were hated by neighbours and feared by clients. This made it easy for the Spanish to find allies. Besides their religion, rigid and fatalistic, made them look at the world in a manner that forced them to interpret the Spanish in a certain predestined way.
It is an old cliche that truth is stranger than fiction and the embarking of Cortez and his men is an example of that. One of the religious stories of the Aztecs was about the god Quetzalcoatl who should return and haunt the Aztecs dressed in black on a certain date. It so happened that the day of Cortez' arrival corresponded exactly with the date of the Aztec calendar and - since it was Long Friday he was wearing black... To put it mildly, this made the occupation of Tenochtitlan easier.
In any case, reality eventually kicked in, and as we all know, following Spanish atrocities, an Aztec upheaval was successful, Cortez and what was remaining of his army had to retreat.Here he could have been history (Couldn't resist this pun!
).
Not so. Because as other posters already pointed out, smallpox made its appearance, and instead of being thrown at the sea, the Spaniards could get their act together and prepare for another invation of a weakened empire. On top of that, the fact that Aztec religion regarded skin diseases as a punishment from the gods, and that the whites did not get it, can't hardly have boasted the moral.
Now the Meso-American civilizations would probably have ended up under European domination anyway. For the real great technological advantage the Europeans disposed of was their ships - if one attempt failed one could relatively easily try again. But they would also probably
survived, and the world could have looked differently.
I apologize for the rather messy disposition of this post, it is mainly based on notes of a lecture I held some time ago based on different sources, but I hope some people find it interesting anyway.