Eggolas said:
Sorry, but I think you're right about the worker first strategy and then axes.
After staring at this position all morning, I've cleared up a bunch of my ideas, and discovered an answer that I think works beautifully.
It sort of works backwards. What's the workers first job? Chopping is wrong, the first job is to mine the copper. Second job is to connect it, which opens up the axes and spears. So building warriors while mining is a bit silly. Barracks is one option, but it's a little bit slow (you probably want to get one defender out before the barracks finishes).
The build that makes the most sense is the workboat. You can build the workboat in 15 turns at size 1; if the workboat starts as you begin mining, you actually save a turn (I've only counted it out, not actually played it), though you might choose to take some extra food or commerce instead.
Next realization - you only need one workboat. The land is food neutral - you can run all those tiles without needing to work the ocean, so the seafood is only used to grow quickly (presuming that you first cottage the tiles by the river, so they also get the financial bonus), and for the healthy.
So I can throw away all my crazy schemes where workboats happen first, to reduce time to build the worker. That also means that my crazy scheme to milk out two scouts (or a scout and a warrior) without delaying fishing is useless in practice (though an interesting exercise in tile management, trying to get exactly 60 hammers and exactly 192 research, within the constraints of the border pop, and launching the first scout in the minimum time).
The boring scheme is worker (24 turns), workboat (14 turns). You don't have an immediately useful build after the workboat unless the copper is connected. And you can't connect the copper until the wheel is available. You need 17 turns to research fishing and another 26 to get the wheel. The worker needs 7 more turns of training after fishing, which means when he pops out there are 19 turns left. The mine takes only 12 turns. You can trade some food/hammers for some commerce, and bring the wheel in another 3 turns, but any more than that and you are pushing the settler out.
On the other hand, it only takes 7 turns to push the scout out. That will delay the research by 7C, which delays fishing by a turn (who cares, we aren't using it yet). The worker shows up on turn 31, and now we can good with the commerce to bring in the research time if necessary.
So I think the optimal run is
finish the scout (7 turns) working the copper.
train a worker, working the floodplains.
Worker starts improving the copper.
Now it gets a bit micro. The worker and the research are in sync if the number on the research bar matches the number of turns remaining on the mine AFTER the worker has moved that turn. A quick check of the research bar shows we're running late with the tech. Some scribbled math shows that we are 4 points late (it looks like three, but the very last turn on the tech we won't be working the floodplains, so we need to cover that). Working the clams for two turns catches us up in research.
As soon as the mine is finished, start working it. It should indicate that the workboat arrives in 6 turns. Wheel comes in on the dot, so start building the road. Note that where the tech and the worker were in synch, the build is one number lower than the worker.
When the workboat is built, the copper isn't connected! No worries; put a dummy build in the city. Have the worker finish the road. Now go back to the city, and select the axeman.
Work the copper for one more turn, while the boat gets to the fish. next turn start working the fish; when the city grows to size two, put the new guy back on the mine. Worker probably improves the other mine (since pottery won't be available yet).
What I really like about this is that the opening move leverages both Hunting (by rushing an early scout) and BW (using the 1F/2P tile that wouldn't be available otherwise) to execute the rush. That we take advantage of the unimproved fish to get the Wheel done on time is just gravy.