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Aug 01, 2008, 05:55 AM
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#1101 |
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Fully Functional
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 57°47'55"N 12°09'16"E
Posts: 9,708
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We have two main things to discuss at this point before playing on.
Should we attempt a 184 win? Note that we are currently planning for a 188 win, which is already 4 turns earlier than the 192 we've been talking about previously. Winning in 188 is not going to be hard, we have considerable margins there. It is definitely theoretically possible to win already in 184, but our margins would be smaller. The main difference is that we must delay our revolt until turn 173, i.e. another 6 turns, which means we will cap at +2 Civics relation bonus with the HR crowd. We have margins to handle that just fine with Cathy, Louis and Hatty. HC could be a bit more problematic, though we're well on our way to +1 ST which hasn't been factored in above. Another difference is that the Shared War counter with JC will not have time to decrease below 8 (it will reach 8 on turn 186), which means we will actually have one higher relations with him than we would on turn 188. This would help offset the one lower OB we get, since that wouldn't reach +2 until turn 189, too late in either scenario. We should have him on our side in either case, but our margins are actually larger in 184 than in 188. (We hope he will finish Izzy Very Soon (tm) so we don't risk having to say no about joining his war.) So why would we do this? Murky Waters' last uploaded save is turn 176. Judging by the shape of their power graph, I would suspect that the didn't play many turns after that (possibly only waiting for some border expansions), so most likely they finished before 180. So we're not going to beat them no matter what. But gee, if we could finish within 10 turns of their date then I'd still consider it a huge success. And you know I like to take (calculated) risks...  Should we start another war? Once Freddy got Rifling from us, he cut through the Japanese Longbows like nothing at all. Lizzy has far more units than Freddy to begin with, and would be given Rifling at the start of the war, and Steel for Cannons as well. Sure, Alex isn't Toku, he probably has a considerably larger army - but totally outdated, with Macemen and Catapults and Longbows (probably a few Hoplites as well) against Rifles and Cannons. It should be an easy fight for Lizzy... though I said that about Asoka vs Toku too. There are some negatives with starting the war. We could be asked by Lizzy to become involved, and agreeing would give us another -1 Declared on Friend with HC. But we could say no and take the -1 with Lizzy, we can afford it. Another potential negative is that Lizzy would research slower, but we don't really rely on getting more techs anyway (she has Democracy btw, but she won't trade it since she's building the Statue of Liberty). Also, it's possible that Alex could get a pillager in to cause Lizzy to lose pop, but I find that unlikely, and the damage would be limited. I'm pro war - let's liberate those poor Greeks from their dictator! What does the team say? 
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G |- \x.e : t1 -> t <= G[x->t1] |- e : t ..... Economic: -5.88, Social: -5.90 (081218) Team Smurkz: BtS SGOTM 08 Wonderful Suryavarman MTDGs: Civ3 MTDG II - The Council | CIV MTDG II - Team Cavaleiros Current NESes: Pre-ChaNES - Peoples' Republic of China Undefeated Board Game Champion :|: DipNES2, Council Diplomacy, BlaDipNES, DipNES3, RiskNESII, RiskNESIII, DipEuropeII, DipWorldIII: Victory! |
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Aug 01, 2008, 10:46 AM
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#1102 |
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HoF Quattromaster
   
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Played a few turns and did my best to make notes this time. During my turnset I was discussing the game with Niklas via IM, so not everything got moved over. Hehe.
Here's the 1100 AD save. Spoiler for Turn Log:
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Aug 01, 2008, 10:55 AM
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#1103 |
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HoF Quattromaster
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A few very important details that I missed are that Cyrus adopted FM and Izzy is dead. Sorry, little one has been a bit ansy today, so it's difficult to focus. Also, JC demanded we cancel trades with America, but we declined. I was checking the relations screen when we noticed that Izzy wasn't there for some reason, hehe, turned out it was because she was dead.
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Aug 01, 2008, 11:13 AM
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#1104 |
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homicidal jungle cat
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: NY
Posts: 5,908
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Poor Izzy. *crocodile tears*
__________________
"'And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.'" -- Terry Pratchett, in "Maskerade" |
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Aug 01, 2008, 02:57 PM
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#1105 |
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homicidal jungle cat
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: NY
Posts: 5,908
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Linked the current save. Will add comments later.
__________________
"'And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.'" -- Terry Pratchett, in "Maskerade" |
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Aug 01, 2008, 11:18 PM
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#1106 |
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Board gamer
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon, United States of
Posts: 3,433
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Back online and moving into the new house. Looks like Niklas has written a dissertation.
Starting a new war seems a good idea to me. I also concur with turn 184 target date - go for glory! |
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Aug 02, 2008, 07:21 AM
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#1107 |
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homicidal jungle cat
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: NY
Posts: 5,908
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Here's the autolog from the turns I played (first couple of comments are from Turn 170, where Methos left off).
Spoiler:
The theme of those two turns was diplomatic difficulties. Lizzy wanted us to join in against Alex; since he has an important friend (HC, IIRC), we had to say no. More problematic was Cathy's demand that we stop trading with Mansa. Saying 'no' to that one gained us a -2 with her, and the additional trade we needed to make to her to make up for that -2 got us a -4 with Hatty.  So Hatty may be a lost cause. But also maybe not: we still have the possibility of a hidden "losers unite" with her, and the math seems to suggest that the -4 will decay to a -3 by turn 184. So I guess we'll see. However, if we do decide to give her up as a lost cause/ too much trouble, there's the possibility of signing in Monty against her and hoping the two of them will lose some population by the time the vote comes up. Even against Cyrus, it's not completely hopeless without her, though we do still hope Saladin will pull ahead again. There was also the interesting development of Louis declaring war on Mansa. Fortunately, we can stop this war without penalties; Niklas found a line in the code showing that techs in peace treaties don't get counted towards "trading with worst enemies", so yay for that. Positive developments are that everyone who needs to be is now at +1 ST, and that JC is back in free religion.
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"'And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.'" -- Terry Pratchett, in "Maskerade" |
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Aug 02, 2008, 07:59 AM
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#1108 |
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Fully Functional
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 57°47'55"N 12°09'16"E
Posts: 9,708
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Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, +1 Help = +10 Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4 Potential problem: No. Washington: Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB, +1 Losers Unite = +9 Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem. Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4 Potential problem: No. Asoka: Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help, +1 Rank = +11 Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4 Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7 Potential problem: No. Lizzy: Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, +1 ST, -1 RH, -1 RJW = +12 Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem. Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +1 Civic = +9 Potential problem: No. Cathy: Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +2 Civic, +1 Help, -2 RST, +1 DP = +9 Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -4 Heathens = +6 Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem Potential problem: Her dislike of Mansa is problematic indeed. But the +4 FT is secured now, and it's unlikely she could mess up further. We signed a DP with her to be on the safe side. Louis: Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +1 BR, +2 Civic = +9 Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4 Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem Potential problem: No. He's in FR now, so has no ties to Saladin left. HC: Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR, +4 FT, +2 Civic, -1 Declared on Friend, -1 RT, +1 Losers Unite = +8 Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -3 Heathens = +4 Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem. Potential problem: Since Saladin left HR, no. We got a RT demerit for trading with Freddy, so no margin left. JC: Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +1 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RST, +1 Shared War = +8 Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6 Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem Potential problem: A new RST, but assuming we win in 184 then he'll still remember the war. In 189 he will go +2 OB, so in a vote in 192 we'd have his vote again. Cyrus: Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR, +1 Help = +9 Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +8 Cyrus: Doh. Potential problem: No, since he will adopt FR before too long.  We have two missionaries on their way.Mansa: Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 ST, +4 Civic, +1 Losers Unite = +13 Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +4 Civic, +2 BR = +11 Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +3 Civic = +10 Potential problem: Shouldn't be a problem, as long as we don't trade too much (or at all) with Louis. Hatty: Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +2 Civic, -3 RT, +1 Losers Unite, +1 ST = +8(!) Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion = +8(!) Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6 Potential problem: We could get her vote, assuming she really does drop back to -3 RT, and our predicted hidden factor towards Saladin isn't too low. She's very much on the border and there's nothing we can do now. Will go to +3 Civic in 193 (backup). Summary of potential problems: If Cyrus is our opponent: Getting enough votes. If Saladin is our opponent: Hatty, but we could afford to lose her. Hatty is demoted to Magenta, again.
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G |- \x.e : t1 -> t <= G[x->t1] |- e : t ..... Economic: -5.88, Social: -5.90 (081218) Team Smurkz: BtS SGOTM 08 Wonderful Suryavarman MTDGs: Civ3 MTDG II - The Council | CIV MTDG II - Team Cavaleiros Current NESes: Pre-ChaNES - Peoples' Republic of China Undefeated Board Game Champion :|: DipNES2, Council Diplomacy, BlaDipNES, DipNES3, RiskNESII, RiskNESIII, DipEuropeII, DipWorldIII: Victory! Last edited by Niklas; Aug 02, 2008 at 08:17 AM. |
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Aug 02, 2008, 03:47 PM
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#1109 |
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Fully Functional
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 57°47'55"N 12°09'16"E
Posts: 9,708
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My turn to take a mini-turnset, playing one turn only. >>The Save<<
Spoiler:
Three main things to note: - Cyrus didn't adopt FR - he switched to Islam instead! Even better from our perspective, he will now even have Heathens negatives towards Saladin. - Saladin has grown back from 61 to 63 pop in only a few turns, suggesting he will overtake Cyrus in the 11 turns that remain. His Crop Yield is still on top. - We have researched Mass Media, started the UN, and revolted to Serfdom and most importantly Hereditary Rule. Nothing negative to report during this turn. 11 to go... 
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G |- \x.e : t1 -> t <= G[x->t1] |- e : t ..... Economic: -5.88, Social: -5.90 (081218) Team Smurkz: BtS SGOTM 08 Wonderful Suryavarman MTDGs: Civ3 MTDG II - The Council | CIV MTDG II - Team Cavaleiros Current NESes: Pre-ChaNES - Peoples' Republic of China Undefeated Board Game Champion :|: DipNES2, Council Diplomacy, BlaDipNES, DipNES3, RiskNESII, RiskNESIII, DipEuropeII, DipWorldIII: Victory! Last edited by Niklas; Aug 02, 2008 at 04:03 PM. |
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Aug 02, 2008, 06:54 PM
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#1110 |
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Fully Functional
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 57°47'55"N 12°09'16"E
Posts: 9,708
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Lizzy: At +11, will be +12 before the end when she gets another +1 Civics.
Asoka: At +11, will forget the shared war against Toku but will instead gain a hidden +1 Rank, making it +11 total but +10 visible. Frederick: Currently +11, will be +10 at the end since he will forget about the shared war with Toku. Mansa: Currently +11, we expect another +1 Civic as well as a +1 Losers Unite, making the total +13 (+12 visible). He's expected to have +11 (actual) towards Saladin, so it's tighter than it looks, but should not be a problem. With Cyrus being Muslim, he's no longer in the running (+7). Washington: At +9, will stay that way. Cyrus: Currently +8, we expect a +1 BR for +9 total. Louis: Currently at +8 (+9 visible), we expect another +1 Civic. Cathy: Currently +7, we expect another +1 Civic and a +1 DP before the end to make it +9 total. HC: Currently +5 (+6 visible), we expect a +1 BR in a few turns and another +1 Civic, as well as a +1 Losers Unite to make visible and actual coincide, +8 total. JC: Currently +8 (+9 visible), we expect another +1 BR, but we also expect him to forget about one of the Shared War bonuses, so +8 total (+9 visible is necessary). Hatty: Currently +5. We expect another +1 Civic, as well as a +1 Losers Unite to get to +7. If we're going to make +8, she must drop to -3 RT. Calculations give at hand that that's actually very likely to happen - but I won't trust it until I see it. She's also predicted to have +8 (actual) towards Saladin, making us win out thanks to playing order. We consider sending our two missionaries her way, now that Cyrus isn't a problem anymore. If she goes FR, her relation with Saladin drops to +2. Saladin, Monty, Alex(?) -------- The Losers Unite may actually be a bit trickier to pull of than expected, due to Louis (likely) making himself Mansa's worst enemy. That means we can't trade with Louis - but at the current date he's ahead of us, and we don't plan to gain any more points. Frederick may be actually worse, he's just behind us and trading him something else may generate RT demerits with HC. It's possible he may come up with something on his own though, so we shouldn't trade with him until the very last minute if it turns out to be necessary. Apart from those two we also want Monty to pass us in score, and we're currently giving him a tech elevator ride. He's no one's worst enemy so there's no risk involved. We must have Losers Unite with Hatty and HC, and we expect to get it also with Mansa and Washington. But it's no good to get it if we incur a -1 RT demerit with HC at the same time. We won't be able to drop to rank 12, so no Rank bonus from Cyrus, but we can live without that. We may or may not get one with Asoka, we don't really care either way.
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G |- \x.e : t1 -> t <= G[x->t1] |- e : t ..... Economic: -5.88, Social: -5.90 (081218) Team Smurkz: BtS SGOTM 08 Wonderful Suryavarman MTDGs: Civ3 MTDG II - The Council | CIV MTDG II - Team Cavaleiros Current NESes: Pre-ChaNES - Peoples' Republic of China Undefeated Board Game Champion :|: DipNES2, Council Diplomacy, BlaDipNES, DipNES3, RiskNESII, RiskNESIII, DipEuropeII, DipWorldIII: Victory! |
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Aug 04, 2008, 10:35 AM
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#1111 |
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HoF Quattromaster
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Niklas, Renata, and I are in a group IM discussion. Niklas played for a while and then I played some. I just handed the 1240 AD save off to Renata. Hopefully, she'll take us in for the win!
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Aug 04, 2008, 11:10 AM
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#1112 |
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homicidal jungle cat
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: NY
Posts: 5,908
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We did it!
Turn before victory linked below, in case any of you want to see the lovely numbers for yourselves. 
__________________
"'And all those exclamation marks, you notice? Five? A sure sign of someone who wears his underpants on his head.'" -- Terry Pratchett, in "Maskerade" |
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Aug 04, 2008, 11:37 AM
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#1114 |
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Mac addict, php monkey
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Well done, Smurkz
 Off you go and look at the other threads, but please don't post in those that are still playing. As usual, you won't see your final save on the progress page until the results are published.
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-- Alan --        -  Fold for TeamCFC Avatar image: Milan Trykar. Courtesy of Snow Leopard TrustC-IV SGOTM Links: BtS SGOTM 17 Maintenance Thread | Progress & Results | BUFFY Mod for BtS 3.19 Mac OS X C-IV Utilities Drag'n'Drop Mod Installer | GOTM Mac HOF Mod | Macapaka .fpk File Extractor and Creator | GOTM Mac Assets Checker Civ3 Utilities: 20K Culture Excel Calc w. Anarchy OS X: FileValet compressor/archiver for Civ3 Complete | Civ3 1.29b2 Updater | TextEdit for Civ3 Mods |
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Aug 04, 2008, 11:54 AM
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#1115 |
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Fully Functional
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 57°47'55"N 12°09'16"E
Posts: 9,708
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Thanks a lot AlanH!
 And great job team!!!  Now off to read threads.
__________________
G |- \x.e : t1 -> t <= G[x->t1] |- e : t ..... Economic: -5.88, Social: -5.90 (081218) Team Smurkz: BtS SGOTM 08 Wonderful Suryavarman MTDGs: Civ3 MTDG II - The Council | CIV MTDG II - Team Cavaleiros Current NESes: Pre-ChaNES - Peoples' Republic of China Undefeated Board Game Champion :|: DipNES2, Council Diplomacy, BlaDipNES, DipNES3, RiskNESII, RiskNESIII, DipEuropeII, DipWorldIII: Victory! |
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Aug 04, 2008, 11:55 AM
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#1116 |
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Deity
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,731
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Congratulations Smurkz!!! What a game! As you guessed, we've been avidly following your final moves. Very well done. Amazing game control!
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Aug 04, 2008, 12:06 PM
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#1117 |
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In his Element
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Oregon
Posts: 1,047
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Wow... excellent play, Smurkz. Congrats from the Misfits (Now hoping for 3rd!
)
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When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in a confederacy against him. - Swift |
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Aug 04, 2008, 12:36 PM
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#1118 |
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Misfit
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 1,441
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Congratulations, Smurkz! Very nice game.
Impressive work on figuring out all the diplo modifiers and how to keep enough civs happy enough long enough for the win. |
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Aug 04, 2008, 01:11 PM
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#1119 |
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Bedrock of Knowledge
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Washington DC
Posts: 10,384
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DAMMIT!
(Nice game guys, we were worried about you all, good diplo win, nice juggling act)
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Now a Senior Economist for the US Gov't The Last Misfit - SGOTM Get Rich Slowly - Top Blog (Time Magazine 2011) We should all be so lucky as to have a get-up-and-go mentality like Jericho --amadeus |
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Aug 04, 2008, 02:59 PM
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#1120 |
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King
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 603
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Well done Smurkz.
We (XTeam) were hoping for disaster so we could keep our fragile grip on a possible bronze. |
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for Beijing.
