2009 predictions from Saxo Bank

yesboii · Dec 30, 2008

Last year was marked by astonishing and market-changing events including a $100 fall in the price of oil, the drop to zero of U.S. interest rates and the collapse of Wall Street giants such as Lehman Brothers.

This year could bring more, equally unbelievable, happenings such as another 400 points being wiped off the S&P 500 and a slump in Chinese growth to zero, according to a report from Saxo Bank titled "10 Outrageous Claims 2009."

1. Iranian Revolution

If oil prices continue to decline, which Saxo Bank believes they will, the Iranian society will be badly affected due to the country's reliance on its number one commodity. The government may not be able to provide the basic necessities its citizens need, which would lead to widespread social unrest, according to Saxo Bank.

2. Crude Oil to $25

The ongoing economic crisis will further dent oil demand throughout this year, sending the price ever closer to $25 a barrel, Saxo Bank said. OPEC production cuts will be hampered by disagreement and fail to stem the slide, it added.

3. S&P 500 to 500

The S&P 500 will fall to 500 points in 2009 as slowing corporate earnings will drag on the U.S. index, according to Saxo Bank. Earnings will slow because of a continued consumer recession, lead by the credit shortage. An increase in corporate funding costs, falls in house prices and a slowdown in investing programs will also add to the weakness, the report said.

4. Italy Could Drop the Euro

Italy could make good on threats to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and may drop out in 2009, Saxo Bank said, a decision which would mean the country effectively gives up the euro. The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits, which could prompt Italy to leave the currency regulation, it said.

5. Australian Dollar to Slump vs Yen

The Australian dollar will sink to 40 Japanese yen as this year's continued slump in commodities hurts the Australian economy, Saxo Bank said. The whole commodity complex will be left dead in the water for the next ten years, the report said.

6. Dollar to Outstrip the Euro

The euro will fall to 0.95 cents versus the dollar in the New Year, before shifting direction and rising to 1.30 cents, according to Saxo Bank. The euro-zone will face a tough year in 2009 as the banking sector will suffer because of its exposure to Eastern Europe, a region that will increasingly falter this year, the report said.

7. Chinese GDP Growth to 0%

Export-led China will be hit by the double blow of a slowing U.S. economy and the souring of commodity-based investments, according to Saxo Bank. Japan will not actually sink into recession, despite gross-domestic-product growth all but disappearing, the report said.

8. Eastern European Forex Pegs to Fail

Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the euro will come under increasing pressure to decouple this year, the report said. The emerging economies are vulnerable to more credit-market disruptions, it added.

9. Commodities Prices to Plunge

Commodities are facing widespread weakness this year with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30 percent, according to Saxo Bank. The consensus belief that demand has been outstripping supply for years might not even be true and more stockpiles could be revealed, the report said.

10. Yen to Become Currency Peg

Asian countries could shun dollar pegs in favor of the Chinese yen this year, according to Saxo Bank. China's economic, political and cultural influence is growing and shifts in market re-evaluations will favor the country, the report added.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...owth-in-China-and-Other-Outrageous-Prophecies

Rossiya · Dec 30, 2008

Funny that Saxo Bank didn't predict its own bankruptcy.

Red Door · Dec 30, 2008

+1 subscription so we can revisit this on December 30th, 2009.

We had some great predictions last year (Kenya's election, Obama not winning a single primary, Don't worry about the banks. Keep your money. etc.), these can only be better

Masquerouge · Dec 30, 2008

10. Yen to Become Currency Peg

Asian countries could shun dollar pegs in favor of the Chinese yen this year, according to Saxo Bank. China's economic, political and cultural influence is growing and shifts in market re-evaluations will favor the country, the report added.

WTF? What kind of bank doesn't even know the proper name of the Chinese currency?

I guess probably a bank that thinks the dollar will be worth 1.35 euro by the end of the year

Yoda Power · Dec 30, 2008

FYI Saxo Bank is run by a nutjob/Ayn Rand believer. They are just trying to get attention.

Godwynn · Dec 30, 2008

Meaningless.

JollyRoger · Dec 30, 2008

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2008
1) Ron Paul elected as President of the United States in 2008
2) S&P500 falls 25% from its 2007 high to 1182
3) At least 3 of the largest 10 US home builders will go bankrupt
4) Chinese stock market falls 40% by late summer
5) Grain Prices to double – again!
6) World oil prices accelerate to $175
7) UK growth turns negative
8) EURSEK falls to 8.8000 (now 9.4000)
9) USDSGD falls to 1.4000, but then rises to 1.6000 (now 1.6000)
10) EURHUF rises to 275

http://www.saxobank.com/Site/About_Us/PressRoom/Releases/EN%20Outrageous%20Predictions%202008%20doc.pdf

Princeps · Dec 30, 2008

1) Ron Paul elected as President of the United States in 2008

Masquerouge · Dec 30, 2008

Mmmmh. To be fair, they ARE called "outrageous claims".

T.A JONES · Dec 30, 2008

WOw Iranian Revolution? that would be great for the Anglo banking cartels ' fix on the World's Reserve choice being US for sole reason of its monoply on mean to aquire oil on any petro exchange.

Iran as you all know was ready to initiate phase 2 of the attack on the anglos US dollar by broading its Euros for oil program.
Last year Iran the number 2 behind Saudi's in oil reserves sold 1.5 billion in petro chemicals in Euros, not dollar. This was Historic precedent since US went fiat proped to Opec promise to sell all oil in US bucks

Strange the abourse's opening timed with US's 'Iran is a nuke terroist' propaganda and Iran'i taking unprecidented levels of damage to its deep-sea fiber optic cable nfrastructure

Next we see from this profond and widley published peice "Italy Could Drop the Euro, and of course all this would mean 'Dollar to Outstrip the Euro'

Gee This would bid well for the US fed and Bank of London if it all does come to light. Who wrote this article anyway? ,,,uh nevermind

Babbler · Dec 31, 2008

These predictions remind me of something ...

Winner · Dec 31, 2008

yesboii said:
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...owth-in-China-and-Other-Outrageous-Prophecies

I can decide which one is the most ridiculous, these are the candidates:

4. Italy Could Drop the Euro

Italy could make good on threats to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and may drop out in 2009, Saxo Bank said, a decision which would mean the country effectively gives up the euro. The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits, which could prompt Italy to leave the currency regulation, it said.

6. Dollar to Outstrip the Euro

The euro will fall to 0.95 cents versus the dollar in the New Year, before shifting direction and rising to 1.30 cents, according to Saxo Bank. The euro-zone will face a tough year in 2009 as the banking sector will suffer because of its exposure to Eastern Europe, a region that will increasingly falter this year, the report said.

7. Chinese GDP Growth to 0%

Export-led China will be hit by the double blow of a slowing U.S. economy and the souring of commodity-based investments, according to Saxo Bank. Japan will not actually sink into recession, despite gross-domestic-product growth all but disappearing, the report said.

I predict this bank will face a lot of trouble, because it's prognosis division sucks.

Yoda Power · Dec 31, 2008

Winner said:
I can decide which one is the most ridiculous, these are the candidates:

I predict this bank will face a lot of trouble, because it's prognosis division sucks.

Actually those predictions stems from the fact that the Saxo Bank CEO is opposed to the .

If anyone takes any of these "predictions" seriously then they are either foolish or blind.

Godwynn · Dec 27, 2009

I want to make a deposit ASAP into Saxo Bank, I feel my money would be in good hands.

Bill3000 · Dec 27, 2009

Wikipedia said:
Saxo Bank monitors press and information sources to control the bank's public image. Several times employees have edited e.g. this article to remove objective but critical information concerning the company.[35]. An IP number from Midas Fondsmæglerselskab, the mother company of Saxo Bank, has recently deleted this paragraph with critical statements from the article and the talk page (IP lookup on 193.178.175.46, revision difference).

kulade · Dec 27, 2009

get ready for next year:

Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2010:

1. Bunds yields will fall to 2.25%
2. VIX will fall to 14
3. CNY (China Yuan Renminbi) will be devalued by 5% vs. USD
4. Gold will fall to $870 in 2010 but will rise to $1500 in 2014
5. USDJPY to reach 110
6. Angry American public to form third party in the US
7. The US Social Security Trust Fund will go bust
8. The price of sugar will drop one third
9. TSE Small Index will rise by 50%
10. US trade balance will turn positive for first time in 34 years

http://www.saxobank.com/en/about-us/press/pages/press-and-media.aspx?NewsMode=Item&NewsID=165

Cutlass · Dec 27, 2009

kulade said:
get ready for next year:

http://www.saxobank.com/en/about-us/press/pages/press-and-media.aspx?NewsMode=Item&NewsID=165

Do these people take themselves seriously, or is this The Onion equivalent of political and economic predictions?

a_propagandist · Dec 28, 2009

Godwynn is awesome.

Babbler · Dec 28, 2009

Let's see how Saxo done this year.

1. Iranian Revolution

If oil prices continue to decline, which Saxo Bank believes they will, the Iranian society will be badly affected due to the country's reliance on its number one commodity. The government may not be able to provide the basic necessities its citizens need, which would lead to widespread social unrest, according to Saxo Bank.

Well, this actually happen, sort, but not at the scale they seem to suggesting.

2. Crude Oil to $25

The ongoing economic crisis will further dent oil demand throughout this year, sending the price ever closer to $25 a barrel, Saxo Bank said. OPEC production cuts will be hampered by disagreement and fail to stem the slide, it added.

That hasn't happen, although it did come close at the start of year, it has bounced back.

3. S&P 500 to 500

The S&P 500 will fall to 500 points in 2009 as slowing corporate earnings will drag on the U.S. index, according to Saxo Bank. Earnings will slow because of a continued consumer recession, lead by the credit shortage. An increase in corporate funding costs, falls in house prices and a slowdown in investing programs will also add to the weakness, the report said.

Again, it came close early in the year, but it gone back up again.

4. Italy Could Drop the Euro

Italy could make good on threats to leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and may drop out in 2009, Saxo Bank said, a decision which would mean the country effectively gives up the euro. The EU is likely to crack down on excessive government budget deficits, which could prompt Italy to leave the currency regulation, it said.

While trouble been abrewin' in euroland lately, it been Greece that worrying people. Thus, the Mafia still launders in euro to this day.

5. Australian Dollar to Slump vs Yen

The Australian dollar will sink to 40 Japanese yen as this year's continued slump in commodities hurts the Australian economy, Saxo Bank said. The whole commodity complex will be left dead in the water for the next ten years, the report said.

Once more, the AUS dollar has risen against the Yen, and it now worth ~80 Yen.

6. Dollar to Outstrip the Euro

The euro will fall to 0.95 cents versus the dollar in the New Year, before shifting direction and rising to 1.30 cents, according to Saxo Bank. The euro-zone will face a tough year in 2009 as the banking sector will suffer because of its exposure to Eastern Europe, a region that will increasingly falter this year, the report said.

The Euro dipped below 1.30 USD, but it never even came close to reaching parity, never mind going below it. It's now at ~1.40 USD.

7. Chinese GDP Growth to 0%

Export-led China will be hit by the double blow of a slowing U.S. economy and the souring of commodity-based investments, according to Saxo Bank. Japan will not actually sink into recession, despite gross-domestic-product growth all but disappearing, the report said.

IIRC, Chinese GDP has continued growing a nice clip, thanks to a massive government stimulus (although, with projects like a new and empty cities being built from the ground up, you have to wonder). Also, Japan enter into recession, IIRC.

8. Eastern European Forex Pegs to Fail

Several of the Eastern European currencies currently pegged or semi-pegged to the euro will come under increasing pressure to decouple this year, the report said. The emerging economies are vulnerable to more credit-market disruptions, it added.

I also believe this has not happened.

9. Commodities Prices to Plunge

Commodities are facing widespread weakness this year with the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index to drop 30 percent, according to Saxo Bank. The consensus belief that demand has been outstripping supply for years might not even be true and more stockpiles could be revealed, the report said.

10. Yen to Become Currency Peg

Asian countries could shun dollar pegs in favor of the Chinese yen this year, according to Saxo Bank. China's economic, political and cultural influence is growing and shifts in market re-evaluations will favor the country, the report added.

I'm tired, and I also believe this is false.

So that would make about 1/10, if you think the unrest in Iran was big enough. If you give out partial credit, you probably get like 2 or 3 out of 10 (I'm not going to add it since I'm tirred).

tl; dr -- Saxo Bank Fail.

Winner · Dec 28, 2009

Wow, they're even below the statistical chance of being right :lol:

One would expect at least 3-6 claims to come true, 1 of 10 is truly an epic fail (especially since the exact opposites of some of the predictions came true AND the only instance where they have come true to being right - the Irianian 'revolution' - happened for a different reason) :lmao:

2009 predictions from Saxo Bank

Ishin

Fridge Magnet Porn

Man of Mayhem

Deity

✫✫✫✫✫✫✫

March to the Sea

Slippin' Jimmy

More bombs than God

Deity

Deity

Deity

Diverse in Unity

✫✫✫✫✫✫✫

March to the Sea

OOOH NOOOOOOO!

Deity

The Man Who Wasn't There.

The Light Brigadier

Deity

Diverse in Unity

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