[BTS] SGOTM 13 - Gypsy Kings

[mabraham]

Originally Posted by bcool

sorry previous posts confused me. I think we should take a close look at how we can modify the the war plan. I think it makes sense to have 2 catapults and 2 swords perhaps go to the forest North of London and have the other 2 catapults walk with the rest of the stack other than the axes headed to destroy the iron.

Sure, scrutinize away! I just don't see what those two swords are doing for us. We're forcing them to attack across rivers later, and not picking up much safety.

We should test the stuff below, but if we have cats+swords on that forest and Vicky is smart enough to attack around the corner using her roads...

• if Vicky attacks with a sword (and she does have a C1+C2 promoted sword around), our sword would defend at 6*(1+0.5-0.2)=7.8 against 6 (and our cat would have been 5*(1+0.5-0.2)= 6.5 against the sword at 6... that's over 50% to kill the sword, which is better odds than we'd have gotten for surviving attacking this sword fortified in the city with a CR1 cat...)
• if Vicky attacks with a C1 axe, the cat would defend 5*(1+0.5-0.1)=7 against 5
• if Vicky attacks with a horse unit, the sword would defend

Unless we swap an axe for a sword about T183 on a boat somehow, we can't get an axe to the forest north of London, a sword to the iron north of london, and have an axe near the eastern iron and an axe with the stack. However if we had cats+axe+sword the axe would defend against melee and the sword against horse units.

Do we really think she'd have three big units around to throw at our cats (or is smart enough to dodge the river)?

Originally Posted by bcool

One contingency we might have to deal with is Vicky fortifying the fort on the eastern iron with a unit. It will be hard for a single axe to deal with that.

That'd suck - we'd have to go "all-in" on London and hope to hold it in time to sue for peace.

[mabraham]

Originally Posted by bcool

We also need to keep our eyes open for decent gold trades. I think we should pick up 80-120 gold trades for cheap techs like Poly or Mono that only one or two AI doesn't know. Also we can trade for a larger chunk of gold if some AI get failure gold for perhaps the Parthenon or Hanging Gardens.

For the record, nothing appeared after GLib was done. Utrecht might be building something now.

Originally Posted by bcool

The trade routes are helping us from both of them right? Or is it just Ragnar? Regardless I think we reject these demands to stop trading. I don't think we are going to get either one to the place where they would be willing to declare war on anyone soon since they are involved in a war themselves that could last for awhile.

We have quite a few trade routes with Ragnar, and none with Izzy, so don't close borders with Ragnar!

Originally Posted by bcool

I think we keep the espionage on Willem just higher than we need to see his research until he finishes music, so that we can see what tech he is starting after that then I think we switch to Cathy. If we switch to Vicky I don't think we are going to get anything useful by the time we declare war. We are not going to build up enough to cause a city revolt. No value that I can see on Vicky.

The necessary espionage for seeing WvO's tech has been 84 for several turns, so I think he's putting them on Ragnar or something. We have a small margin at the moment, so I think we should move our espionage to Cathy and note in the PPP to monitor the necessary level for WvO's tech.

Originally Posted by bcool

Something to consider (bad idea I'm pretty sure) run engineer/scientists in CC as it grows to get a Great Person asap to use for a GA for switching to Caste, Pacifism, and a religion.

That's around a 10-turn delay for each subsequent GScientist, in return for 3 empire turns, and a more expensive subsequent GAge, if we wanted one.

Originally Posted by bcool

I like a plan for a monastery and missionary here instead of whipping the lighthouse. I need to work out the details but I think pacifism and religion in CC is far more important than a lighthouse here.

Agreed

Originally Posted by bcool

I think the costs of sweeping Vicky out need to looked at closely. We need to set up for the long haul so we need to look at what we can efficiently do with swords and catapults. Once we start the war with Vicky she will likely go for feudalism and those longbows will shut us down. I think we are going need some luck to take London, A great deal of luck to take another city before she get feudalism...

Agreed. This war is not a long-term proposition. Luckily, London will have a trade route around Vicky's island clockwise (and then via Cathy), until she settles the iron-fish site. I'm still just hoping to be able to try for York, but that's fading fast...

[bcool]

That's around a 10-turn delay for each subsequent GScientist, in return for 3 empire turns, and a more expensive subsequent GAge, if we wanted one.

I agree it probably isn't worth it, but the 100% bonus on does help alleviate the 10 turn delay for each subsequent GScientist and the hammer bonus might finish the NE a turn or 2 earlier for another 100%. Of course I don't mind if we don't do it, just pointing out it isn't quite as bad. If we get an artist I might consider it though. (that would only happen if we finish the NE before the great person was born of course)

[Ronnie1]

snip...(and our cat would have been 5*(1+0.5-0.2)= 6.5 against the sword at 6....

Where are these numbers coming from??? Cats don't get defensive bonuses.

If you are just talking about the river crossing, we really have to assume she will use the road and go around. IMO, we must plan for the smartest play against us, and fall back to an AI doing something dumb. This is also why I don't want here to have cats, I have seen a much greater use of cats attacking stacks in BtS.

The best answer IMO is to put an Axe in the cat pile to get the best defense possible in the forest. I just don't know if we have enough units. I would rather delay a few turns and bring extras actually if we are cutting it that close. If we put this effort into London and fail, it could be a real game breaker.

[bcool]

Originally Posted by Ronnie1

Where are these numbers coming from??? Cats don't get defensive bonuses.

If you are just talking about the river crossing, we really have to assume she will use the road and go around. IMO, we must plan for the smartest play against us, and fall back to an AI doing something dumb. This is also why I don't want here to have cats, I have seen a much greater use of cats attacking stacks in BtS.

The best answer IMO is to put an Axe in the cat pile to get the best defense possible in the forest. I just don't know if we have enough units. I would rather delay a few turns and bring extras actually if we are cutting it that close. If we put this effort into London and fail, it could be a real game breaker.

Yes he got that wrong. Catapults don't get defensive bonuses.

I do think we need at least 1 non-catapult in the forest. I was going to take a more detailed look tonight and develop a comprehensive plan. Right now, I think putting 2 swords or a sword and an axe here is the smart play. Once the catapults reduce the city defenses of london down to 0% we could move the sword and axe out to attack without the river crossing penalties the same turn the rest of the forces get there.

If Vicky attacks our catapults when they are undefended in the forest. I count this as a win for us, since her unit that attacked would either die or would at least be wounded by it when we hit london with the rest of our stack.

If Vicky does research construction and makes a catapult and sacrifices it on our stack I think that is also okay. We likely kill the catapult and get a free promo from it. And maybe delay to heal 1 turn.

If she builds an axe instead of the catapult this is worse for us. If she techs feudalism instead of construction this is way worse for us. So her having math isn't that bad.

[Ronnie1]

Here are 2 updated test maps.

1st is T170 with the river added N of London.

2nd is the T0, 4000bc with Vicky's land modeled and a guess on Isabella in close proximity to Ragnar.

[bcool]

apparently I always forgot that river

If someone is online and could post a few screenshots, I might be able use those screenshots to start developing a more comprehensive military plan while I'm at work (gasp). Otherwise I hope to do so in about 6 hours.

[Ronnie1]

Shots I took for updating the test game.

[bcool]

Thanks

Can you show me the location of the galleys too?

[Ronnie1]

Galleys

[mabraham]

Originally Posted by Ronnie1

Where are these numbers coming from??? Cats don't get defensive bonuses.

Originally Posted by bcool

Yes he got that wrong. Catapults don't get defensive bonuses.

Hmm, I tested, and it's as you say. Totally against what I thought was my experience. Thanks for the lesson! BTW our defending sword against her axe (with no promos each) will be at 72.77 if she dodges the river. So I'm quite happy to send two swords here.

Originally Posted by Ronnie1

If you are just talking about the river crossing, we really have to assume she will use the road and go around. IMO, we must plan for the smartest play against us, and fall back to an AI doing something dumb. This is also why I don't want here to have cats, I have seen a much greater use of cats attacking stacks in BtS.

She certainly could build a cat and use it as you say. However, she can't tech both Construction and Feudalism in the relevant window...

Originally Posted by Ronnie1

The best answer IMO is to put an Axe in the cat pile to get the best defense possible in the forest. I just don't know if we have enough units. I would rather delay a few turns and bring extras actually if we are cutting it that close. If we put this effort into London and fail, it could be a real game breaker.

We've only got three axes to hand. Eastern iron needs one. Incoming stack needs one. So if the cat stack needs one, we've got to use a sword for the northern iron, and they're out of position because I planned to use axes for the iron (and think I've mangled one of them a bit)

Originally Posted by bcool

I do think we need at least 1 non-catapult in the forest. I was going to take a more detailed look tonight and develop a comprehensive plan. Right now, I think putting 2 swords or a sword and an axe here is the smart play. Once the catapults reduce the city defenses of london down to 0% we could move the sword and axe out to attack without the river crossing penalties the same turn the rest of the forces get there.

If Vicky attacks our catapults when they are undefended in the forest. I count this as a win for us, since her unit that attacked would either die or would at least be wounded by it when we hit london with the rest of our stack.

On the DOW turn the boat units land while the stack moves marble->hill. The stack then has three more movement turns while we get 2 bombards. On the third, the units escorting the cats would have to step onto the hill. Swords would be vulnerable to Vicky's axe there, and I'd suggest that pair of sword don't do this if she has an axe around. Then on DOW+4 the forest cats do the last bombard and the other units are in position for the attack.

Or, on DOW+2 we load the pair of swords back onto a boat, so that we land the swords with the walking stack. Unfortunately those are the most likely turns for the cats to be attacked.

I did see her dodge the river to attack a single cat in a forest near London in a war test game.

Meanwhile, on DOW turn our axe moved to the iron, DOW+1 it pillaged, and DOW+2 it moved onto the forest. That might be enough to deter Vicky from exposing units by dodging the road. DOW+3 the axe moves to defend the cats. So there's only one turn of exposure. This also assumes she hasn't fortified a unit on a fort on that iron... there's a C1+C2 sword that we can't see at the moment...

Originally Posted by bcool

If Vicky does research construction and makes a catapult and sacrifices it on our stack I think that is also okay. We likely kill the catapult and get a free promo from it. And maybe delay to heal 1 turn.

If she builds an axe instead of the catapult this is worse for us. If she techs feudalism instead of construction this is way worse for us. So her having math isn't that bad.

Yep.

[bcool]

sorry wasn't able to do productive work on the game at work. I'm home and will look into options. I'm starting with mabraham's suggestions in this post

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpo...postcount=1588

and seeing how to adapt it to get more units there, and get swords with the catapults landing north of London.

On the DOW turn the boat units land while the stack moves marble->hill. The stack then has three more movement turns while we get 2 bombards. On the third, the units escorting the cats would have to step onto the hill. Swords would be vulnerable to Vicky's axe there, and I'd suggest that pair of sword don't do this if she has an axe around. Then on DOW+4 the forest cats do the last bombard and the other units are in position for the attack.

The river dodge with the swords would depend on the presence of an axe for sure.

[bcool]

Ok

New galley plan somewhat complex so I will build a test game next to make sure everything works and everyone agrees that is the best option if the wife isn't too upset with me for ignoring her for the past 2 hours.

I was using mabraham's reference points for galley locations I've copied that attachment at the bottom.

T178
Ferry offloads catapult in Stone Mountain, moves back towards BF with 3rd movement
New Galley moves to Stone Mountain picks up the catapult
Kon Tiki can't move stays at BF3
Nautilus moves to PC1
Argo moves to PC2

T179
Ferry moves to BF1
New Galley moves to BF2 with catapult
Kon Tiki moves to BF2 as well
Nautilus sits PC1
Argo sits PC2

T180
Ferry BF1 (sits)
New Galley BF3 (offloads catapult to PC)
Kon-Tiki BF2 (sits)
Nautilus PC2 (after loading 2 3 xp catapults from PC)
Argo PC3 (after picking up 2 3 xp catapults from Nautilus in galley chain)

T181
Ferry BF2 (picks up axe and catapult from BF)
Kon-Tiki BF3 (after picking up axe and catapult from Ferry)
New Galley BF4 (with axe and catapult from Kon-Tiki)
Nautilus Picks up a sword moves PC3
Argo drops off 2 3 xp catapults moves back to BF5

T182
Ferry is basically free to go back and do other stuff now
New Galley BF5 (gives axe and catapult to Argo)
Kon-Tiki BF4 (picks up sword and 0 xp catapult from PC this is the catapult left behind by New Galley) (I believe we must 1 whip this sword in BF to get it built by T182, but it gets in the fight so I think it is worth it)
Nautilus PC4 (picks up a 2nd sword from Vicky's lands)
Argo BF6 (after getting axe and catapult from New Galley)

T183
Ferry free to roam
New Galley BF6 (with sword and catapult from Kon-Tiki)
Kon-Tiki BF5 (gives New Galley sword and catapult)
Nautilus to rally point north of London (with 2 swords)
Argo BF7 (swaps out axe for catapult walking on the ground so it now has two catapults before moving)

T184
Ferry free to roam
New Galley drops sword and catapult on marble and heads back
Kon-Tiki free to head back (BF4)
Nautilus reaches rally point north of london
Argo 1 short of rally point north of london (but this is okay since war declaration shifts it 1NW still within 3 of the forest north of London)

T185 DOW!!!
Ferry probably makes it back to workers by now
New Galley (BF5)
Kon-Tiki (BF3 or picking up reinforcements worker and reinforcment?)
Nautilus drops 2 swords north of london
Argo (teleported with DOW), then drops 2 catapults north of london (one of which unfortunately is 3 xp)

We have 2 sword 2 axe 2 catapult in the stack going thru Vicky's land and we have 2 sword and 2 catapults north of london (edit: and the 2 axe taking out the iron, 1 of which will be able to join the party at least)

We can send a trireme (or 2?) with the galley rallying north of London and embargo London

Vicky might build and send triremes out at us to destroy our seafood so we probably only want 1 trireme with the galleys to the north.

But I think with this plan London will be ours I think things are looking up.

[bcool]

sigh, I must have messed up the test game a long time ago. Vicky's lands are shifted up one in the test game.

[mabraham]

Originally Posted by bcool

Ok

New galley plan somewhat complex so I will build a test game next to make sure everything works and everyone agrees that is the best option if the wife isn't too upset with me for ignoring her for the past 2 hours.

I was using mabraham's reference points for galley locations I've copied that attachment at the bottom.

Looks reasonably sound. I'll have time in about 6 hours to update the test game, share, and then try playing through this war plan.

[mabraham]

Originally Posted by bcool

sigh, I must have messed up the test game a long time ago. Vicky's lands are shifted up one in the test game.

We can probably recover that with a well-placed fake island (label it fake!) that allows a diagonal movement at a suitable point.

[bcool]

Well I went ahead and remade the test game with Vicky's land shifted to the right relative location. Of course this means other things are still off (like CGT site).

I will let mabraham update the test game since he so generously volunteered, so until tomorrow.

[mabraham]

Ok test game updated to T178.

The veteran sword doesn't quite have the right HP. FH has not got the 10 hammers on its WB like it should (but hopefully the overflow is right to generate things properly), but all cities otherwise are right.

I adjusted Vicky's units and tech to what I know she has - but she may not switch to Theo. I believe all our units that should have movement points do. I hacked off a Louis settler that was after the silver site

Just in case it's useful for fixing something, I've added a saved game from T177. Vicky's tech (+Construction -Theol) and units are a mess (she has a cat!), our sword has even worse wrong HP and is on the wrong tile, and PC currently has a temporary extra pop and tile to fix something that went amiss.

[bcool]

Okay using mabraham's test game I was able to improve my reported results a bit

here are screenshots laying out the war/galley plan I'm proposing. Each screenshot is at the end of the listed turn. And I've copied the plan over into spoilers below.

I made a slight improvement and didn't realize there were 2 swords on the tip of vicky's lands so a few slight changes were made for the better.
T178
Ferry offloads catapult in Stone Mountain, moves back towards BF with 3rd movement
New Galley moves to Stone Mountain picks up the catapult
Kon Tiki can't move stays at BF3
Nautilus moves to PC1
Argo moves to PC2

T179

setting up galley chains

Spoiler:

T179
Ferry moves to BF1
New Galley moves to BF2 with catapult
Kon Tiki moves to BF2 as well
Nautilus sits PC1
Argo sits PC2

T180

Spoiler:

T180
Ferry BF1 (sits)
New Galley BF3 (offloads catapult to PC)
Kon-Tiki BF2 (sits)
Nautilus PC2 (after loading 2 3 xp catapults from PC)
Argo PC3 (after picking up 2 3 xp catapults from Nautilus in galley chain)

T181

Spoiler:

T181
Ferry BF2 (picks up axe and catapult from BF)
Kon-Tiki BF3 (after picking up axe and catapult from Ferry) (sword and catapult from PC can load onto Kon-Tiki this turn)
New Galley BF4 (picks up axe and catapult from Kon-Tiki, moves into PC, drops off the axe, picks up the catapult)
Nautilus Picks up 2 swords moves PC3
Argo drops off 2 3 xp catapults moves back to BF5

T182

mistake on screenshot here. Lists Nautilus at PC3 and PC4 (should be PC4)

Spoiler:

T182
Ferry is basically free to go back and do other stuff now
New Galley BF5 (gives axe and 2 catapult to Argo)
Kon-Tiki BF4 (picks up sword and axe left in PC last turn from PC) (I believe we must 1 whip this sword in BF to get it built by T182, but it gets in the fight so I think it is worth it) the chop finishes the sword on T180.
Nautilus PC4 (picks up a 2nd sword from Vicky's lands)
Argo BF6 (after getting axe and 2 catapults from New Galley)

T183

Spoiler:

T183
Ferry free to roam
New Galley BF6 (with sword and catapult axe from Kon-Tiki)
Kon-Tiki BF5 (gives New Galley sword and catapult)
Nautilus to rally point north of London (with 2 swords)
Argo BF7 (swaps out axe for catapult walking on the ground so it now has two catapults before moving) offloads axe onto land and picks up 0-xp catapult from New Galley before moving. continues to BF7 with 2 catapults

T184

Spoiler:

T184
Ferry free to roam
New Galley drops sword and catapult and axe on marble and heads back
Kon-Tiki free to head back (BF4)
Nautilus reaches rally point north of london
Argo 1 short of rally point north of london (but this is okay since war declaration shifts it 1NW still within 3 of the forest north of London)

T185 DOW!!!
Ferry probably makes it back to workers by now
New Galley (BF5)
Kon-Tiki (BF3 or picking up reinforcements worker and reinforcment?)
Nautilus drops 2 swords north of london
Argo (teleported with DOW), then drops 2 catapults north of london (one of which unfortunately is 3 xp)

The axes are in place, the stack has 3 swords, 2 axes, 2 3-xp catapults
Nautilus's 2 swords are 0 xp and Argo has 2 0 xp catapults

Edit: also I realized that in my new test game I didn't put in the iron for vicky so mabraham's update lacks Vicky's 2nd iron in the east (I worldbuilt it in while making the screenshots). She has the iron to the NE in his test game.

We might get lucky and actually get vicky's 2 workers on the eastern iron on T185 (might just work out I think ) 1 turn short I fear.

[bcool]

Important discovery while playing test game, BF will lose its +3 from representation when it whips the catapult on T179 which will prevent it from building the axe the next turn. (BF also might have to run a citizen on T180 to finish the axe as well)

So I think we have to 2 pop whip something in GH on T179 (1 pop whip might work as well). This reduces GH's population so BF regains its representation bonus at least it worked in the test game.

I'm thinking we 2 pop whip either a galley or a trireme. With the new galley/war plan Ferry can make it back in time to ferry workers around. So a galley its NOT critical.

A trireme could
1) go exploring and/or provide assistance against any barbarian galley that might show up while 2 of our 3 triremes are busy in England.
2) Or the trireme could go to PC to protect against a possible stack from Vicky or just pillaging triremes she might send out. this would allow us to send 2 triremes with Argo and Nautilus to the north of London. Ensuring a robust blockade of London while our stack approaches.

I favor the trireme and option 2 for the trireme.