[BTS] SGOTM 15 - Unusual Suspects

[Trystero]

Five turns sounds fine to me. Green.

[AAA]

Originally Posted by Xcalibrator

I'm pretty sure there's never been a "standard" Civ IV game (including the HOF, BUFFY, and other xOTM mods) that included the trip-over-a-tile-and-get-something-cool feature and would bet a lot of money that's not what happened in this game. The AI that discovered Divine Right didn't do so until T40, and without the FFH-type trick he must have done it the usual way, which is having any necessary prereqs (both Theology and Monarchy) and either trading with somebody else (which is conceivable but unspeakably evil, even for Neil ) or researching it himself by some combination of brute teching and bulbing.

It's very likely that bulbing was involved (which gives 1000 beakers plus a population-dep term for all GPs other than Great Sci's) because otherwise it means the AI has pretty awesome research capabilities--so good that we'd be doomed. The most likely GP is a Prophet because DR is one of his "earliest" techs. If the AI does not have Mysticism then he can't bulb Meditation (1st in the GP bulbing list) or Polytheism (2nd). If he doesn't have Med or Poly then he can't bulb Priesthood (#3) or Mono (#4). Theology (#5) needs both Writing and Mono. But if he was given Theology and Monarchy to start then he can bulb Divine Right (#6), therefore he must have had Theo, Monarchy (and conceivably Writing or Mono but not both), and now DR.

IF, however, the AI started with Mysticism, then he'd also have to have Med, Poly (otherwise they'd be bulbed before DR). Monotheism would be skipped if he doesn't have Masonry, and without Mono, Theology is skipped. So another possibility is that the AI has Mysticism, Meditation, Polytheism, Theology, Monarchy, and DR--and either Monotheism or neither Mono nor Masonry. None of which probably matters. Uh, what were we talking about??

[BTW, a Great Artist could also bulb DR if the AI already had Mysticism, Polytheism, Monotheism (or no Masonry), Theology, and Monarchy.]

Ah, right. Given the above flawless logic (?) we can be sure that at least one AI (and probably only one) has Theology, and has had it since the beginning of the game. I don't know how the AI chooses what to build, so it's a big question mark on how long we have to build the AP. If it we are not a big race, that would be great, because as you say, there's a lot of stuff we'd rather build first.

Fortunately, we don't need to commit to the AP yet, and the Toku's will probably trash all our plans anyway. How about if somebody plays to the beginning of T73 following my plan? I think everybody is pretty comfortable with those 5 turns. Let's see what the Toku's do.

Shall we take a vote? I am green. I don't care who plays but I am available.

-----------------
@SH. No vassals means no colonies. So no friendly beneficiaries of magnanimously granted independence. But we can probably get a friendly beneficiary of our tech-gifting.

A very convincing argument . Don't mind me I'm a contrarian by nature

I doubt I'm the one you want for the next set, I'm guessing Toku is going to attack us soon and the answer to being attack playing HOF games, is to find another save - I don't do defense well.

[Deckhand]

Great Analysis XCal - you win a five turn trip to the official save.

Originally Posted by Xcalibrator

Shall we take a vote? I am green. I don't care who plays but I am available.

Originally Posted by ChrisShaffer

Green.
I thought Deckhand was going to play?

I punted to AAA

Spoiler:

Yes per post 656;
I punted in post 667

Originally Posted by Trystero

Five turns sounds fine to me. Green.

Originally Posted by AAA

I doubt I'm the one you want for the next set, I'm guessing Toku is going to attack us soon and the answer to being attack playing HOF games, is to find another save - I don't do defense well.

And he handed off to whomever. XCal knows exactly what to do. Anyone else (besides SH) would need some study before playing.
Let's get this show on the road.

[Xcalibrator]

Originally Posted by AAA

I'm guessing Toku is going to attack us soon

Which one? Which one?!

Barring anyone putting up a stop sign, I should be able to play tonight.

If our informed speculation/wild guesses about the Islam founder are near the mark then it may be tricky to infect everyone with Hinduism for an AP win. Isolated AIs aren't that big a problem--we can beeline to Optics/caravels if necessary--but if one of them is Really isolated, as in surrounded by mountains on an island so you can't see/meet the sucker without airships then we can't even gift a Hindu city to him until we have Physics, which is getting a bit late. Maybe culture is the way to go. Eh, let's see what happens in the next 5 turns.

[kcd_swede]

I'm green... a bit early for St Pat's day, but there it is.

Just want to make a general comment... we KNOW that religion VC might be nearly impossible. It would very likely require gifting cities to an AI if they were so isolated. But we get nowhere with this discussion until that fishboat is out and about.

Settler and missionary spamming might be enough to get a victory, since its +2 for liberating cities.

As for AP, I think earlier is best. In culture VC We'll be spreading Hindu and building temples shortly, and its a lot of hammers. It will also double its culture sooner the sooner we build it. If we get lucky with spread, it provides an easy means of stopping unwanted wars. Downside is more potential GPro's. It also entices AI to spread the AP religion themselves, which works against religious VC as we'd need more votes. But if we didn't want early AP, we should have taken a different tech from Oracle.

But yeah, we'll see in 5 turns if I still like its high prio.

[kcd_swede]

A heartfelt CONGRATULATIONS to High King JJ for his "Fastest Culture Victory" award in WOTM41! We're looking like a team of all-stars, now.

Bring some of that fast culture expertise to this game too, please.

[Xcalibrator]

Well, that quick. I set things up and hit return to end T68. The barb warrior in the north moved east and then a barb archer showed up to replace him on the forest tile to the NW of our axe. Obviously I should just have the axe sit tight, but there's a worker with him who is chopping. (Don't worry, I won't let him finish the chop and deprive our axe of cover .) The question is, are we confident enough that our axe will survive attacks from the archer and the warrior that we should leave the worker with him? My vote is yes. We're in forest and the archer would be attacking across a river.

See the recent dotmap. Our axe is S of the deer, barb warrior is ON the deer, and barb archer is W of the deer.

[Trystero]

I'm at work, so I can't run tests, but I would think we are safe enough. However, given my luck in my turnset, it might be wise to play more conservatively and have the worker retreat. It would be bad to lose the axe, it would be worse to lose the axe and a worker.

How critical to our timing is that chop?

[Xcalibrator]

Actually, the plan calls for me to leave it only 2/3 chopped, but I think I'll finish it off in the near future to help Bombay build another axe if Hammy is looking ugly, or a workboat if we feel safe enough. Note that Bombay will complete an axe on T73 anyway.

BTW, as of the start of T69, we are now Worst Enemy of both Tokus. Not a shock. I see that I also goofed on the initial settings of the test game (have a road in the wrong place). But on balance, it's 1 worker-turn in our favor. Still, darned embarrassing and annoying.

We have 95.6% odds if WE attack the archer, and 99.9% on the warrior. Our axe has 5% fortification bonus in the forest, 10% if we sit and let them attack. So I'm confident we're in no danger of losing the axe. But if the warrior moves SE he'll be able to attack Bombay the next turn, and we have no unit in range to defend the city other than the axe.

Can we build another unit in Bombay to defend in time? FW3 can complete his chop in 2 turns, but only if the axe stays put to protect him. FW4 is SE of Bombay, and can complete his chop in 3 turns. We have another FW nearby who can move to the same forest hill as FW4, and finish chopping next turn. We have ... argggh, too complicated to describe. I'm just going to upload the save and let people see. And then I'll make a test save and play around. Grrrrrr. Stupid barbarians.

[Xcalibrator]

I've updated the save (attached below) to match the beginning of T69 in the real game, including replacing Japan's horses with copper, removing his chariot, and adding units to Osaka (more or less the correct ones). FWIW, I had our axe sit and hit return. The barb warrior moved SE and the archer to the deer. FW3 completed his chop, removing the forest the axe was hiding in and sending 20H to Bombay. This is not enough to finish the axe under construction this turn, i.e., in time to defend against the barb taking the city. BUT, if we have FW1 move to the forest hill SE of the city (where FW4 is chopping) during T69, then we'll have 2 workers on that hill forest, and they can complete the chop and have an axe ready to defend against the barb at the end of T70. I think this is the obvious thing to do, but will wait (presumably until tomorrow) to get approval and proceed.

[Xcalibrator]

I should add that the odds of our existing axe attacking the barb archer when he's on the deer (no forest) are 95%. Assuming the barbs move as they did in the test game (which is about the worst scenario), we can't let the archer move onto the gold hill, so we'd have to attack him. I think we're very safe going with the double chop toward an axe in Bombay.

Hey, where is everybody?

[Trystero]

Originally Posted by Xcalibrator

Hey, where is everybody?

I had to drive home from work.

Originally Posted by Xcalibrator

I've updated the save (attached below) to match the beginning of T69 in the real game, including replacing Japan's horses with copper, removing his chariot, and adding units to Osaka (more or less the correct ones). FWIW, I had our axe sit and hit return. The barb warrior moved SE and the archer to the deer. FW3 completed his chop, removing the forest the axe was hiding in and sending 20H to Bombay. This is not enough to finish the axe under construction this turn, i.e., in time to defend against the barb taking the city. BUT, if we have FW1 move to the forest hill SE of the city (where FW4 is chopping) during T69, then we'll have 2 workers on that hill forest, and they can complete the chop and have an axe ready to defend against the barb at the end of T70. I think this is the obvious thing to do, but will wait (presumably until tomorrow) to get approval and proceed.

I have not checked the test game, but this sounds reasonable to me. Green to proceed.

Edit: I tried this in the test game, and it looks good. Question: What is FW2 going to do, since we can't have him move NW to road until the barbs are gone?

[ChrisShaffer]

Green from me, good analysis.

[Xcalibrator]

Originally Posted by Trystero

Question: What is FW2 going to do, since we can't have him move NW to road until the barbs are gone?

Pretty much what was in the original plan. He'll move southish to build a road to connect Delhi so he and FW1 can continue on to south of Delhi to chop and build cottages. I haven't worked in detail how this will change the MM but I think the impact will be very minor--maybe putting us one or two worker-turns behind on building cottages. FW3 won't be able to complete the road up to the wheat site but the settler's movement is such that it won't be delayed. In the original PPP I saved the forest that FW3 is chopping for later (Vijay granary) but this may be better, giving us an extra axe for the NW. Nice to have with Hammy in WHEOOHRN.

[kcd_swede]

I don't have a good grasp of the situation so I don't want to give advice to the one person who does. Sounds to me like you are doing the right things.

[AAA]

Originally Posted by kcd_swede

I don't have a good grasp of the situation so I don't want to give advice to the one person who does. Sounds to me like you are doing the right things.

Yes Xcal, it sounds like you are more than on top of the situation. And any advice I might suggest would be like back seat driving - with my eyes closed .

[SteelHorse]

Travel day yesterday. Will take a look tonight and comment, but don't let me hold things up.

[SteelHorse]

Well, I think the axe is safe this turn, but i would recommend promoting to C1. if the archer and the warrior circle, you may need to back track into the Bombay. Can we chop the Bomba yAxe in 2 turns? Should we 1-pop the Axe in Bolly and send north. I ask because Hammy has the GW, there could well be a stream of barbs coming our way. This is not all bad, because use some XP for HE.

[Xcalibrator]

I played to T74 and all is more or less well. The barb archer and warrior foolishly attacked while our axe was defending in the forest; they died and we got not a scratch. The axe advanced NW and then a barb axe showed up. I retreated into another forest, gave him Woody2, and waited. Dead barb, again without a scratch on us. We have one axe and two warriors in Drona with another axe 1 turn away. Osaka has 2 archers, 2 spears, and 2 axes. No cultural pressure at all on the corn yet, and we now have visibility on Japan's research. He just finished Sailing and has 17 turns to go on HBR. The only bad thing is that we're considerably behind the test game on gold. I'll need to do some more testing and see what if anything we can do to get CoL on time. Vijay can be settled next turn SE of the wheat--but maybe delaying that might save us gold?? Eh, not enough. Fresh thinking would be a good idea here <hint, hint>.

Misc: Hinduism has spread to Bombay and the Christian mission to Bolly succeeded. Pottery came up 2 beakers short and 1 turn late but the only effect was to delay completion of our first cottage by 1 turn. As of T74 we have 15 gold, -15 gpt @100%, 45 bpt, and 510 beakers left for CoL.

Spoiler for BUFFY log:

Logging by BUFFY 3.19.003 (BtS 3.19)
------------------------------------------------
Turn 69/500 (1240 BC) [29-Feb-2012 20:43:43]
Christianity has spread: Bollywood
100% Research: 46 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -13 per turn, 41 in the bank

After End Turn:
Hinduism has spread: Bombay

Other Player Actions:
While defending in Indian territory at Bombay, Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (5.00/5) defeats Barbarian Archer (Prob Victory: 100.0%)
While defending in Indian territory at Bombay, Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (4.55/5) defeats Barbarian Warrior (Prob Victory: 100.0%)

Turn 70/500 (1200 BC) [29-Feb-2012 20:47:25]
100% Research: 46 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -13 per turn, 28 in the bank

After End Turn:
Bombay finishes: Axeman

Turn 71/500 (1160 BC) [29-Feb-2012 20:56:35]
Bombay begins: Axeman (9 turns)
100% Research: 45 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -13 per turn, 15 in the bank

After End Turn:
The whip was applied in Drona
Tech research finished: Pottery
Bollywood finishes: Axeman
Drona finishes: Settler
Delhi finishes: Barracks

Turn 72/500 (1120 BC) [29-Feb-2012 21:04:09]
Research begun: Fishing (1 Turns)
Bollywood begins: Granary (6 turns)
Drona begins: Granary (15 turns)
Delhi begins: Granary (20 turns)
0% Research: 0 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
100% Gold: 29 per turn, 2 in the bank

After End Turn:
Bollywood grows to size 5
Delhi's borders expand

Turn 73/500 (1080 BC) [29-Feb-2012 21:12:09]
Axeman 1 (Bollywood) promoted: Woodsman I
Axeman 1 (Bollywood) promoted: Woodsman II
100% Research: 45 per turn
0% Espionage: 4 per turn
0% Gold: -16 per turn, 31 in the bank

After End Turn:
Tech research finished: Fishing
Delhi grows to size 4

Other Player Actions:
While defending in the wild near Bombay, Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (5.00/5) defeats Barbarian Axeman (Prob Victory: 99.5%)
Civics Change: Gandhi(India) from 'Theocracy' to 'Organized Religion'

Turn 74/500 (1040 BC) [29-Feb-2012 21:19:28]
Research begun: Code of Laws (10 Turns)

Spoiler for Upload log:

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1240 BC to 1040 BC:

Turn 69, 1240 BC: Christianity has spread in Bollywood.
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Hinduism has spread in Bombay.
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Archer (1.71) vs Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (9.00)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Combat Odds: 0.0%
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Extra Combat: -10%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Fortify: +5%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (River Attack: +25%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 35 (17/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Archer is hit for 35 (0/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) has defeated Barbarian's Archer!
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Warrior (2.00) vs Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (10.25)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Combat Odds: 0.0%
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Fortify: +5%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) is hit for 9 (91/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 40 (60/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 40 (20/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Barbarian's Warrior is hit for 40 (0/100HP)
Turn 69, 1240 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) has defeated Barbarian's Warrior!

Turn 71, 1160 BC: You have discovered Pottery!

Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of Delhi are about to expand.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: Bollywood will grow to size 5 on the next turn.
Turn 72, 1120 BC: The borders of Delhi have expanded!

Turn 73, 1080 BC: Bollywood has grown to size 5.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Bollywood can hurry Granary for 2⇴ with 28ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 11 turns.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi adopts Organized Religion!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Delhi will grow to size 4 on the next turn.
Turn 73, 1080 BC: You have discovered Fishing!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Barbarian's Axeman (5.00) vs Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) (11.25)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Combat Odds: 0.5%
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Plot Defense: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Feature Defense: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: -50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (Combat: +50%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: (River Attack: +25%)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Barbarian's Axeman is hit for 29 (71/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Barbarian's Axeman is hit for 29 (42/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Barbarian's Axeman is hit for 29 (13/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Barbarian's Axeman is hit for 29 (0/100HP)
Turn 73, 1080 BC: Gandhi's Axeman 1 (Bollywood) has defeated Barbarian's Axeman!
Turn 73, 1080 BC: While defending, your Axeman 1 (Bollywood) has killed a Barbarian Axeman!

Turn 74, 1040 BC: Delhi has grown to size 4.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Delhi can hurry Granary for 2⇴ with 20ℤ overflow and +1⇤ for 10 turns.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: The borders of Bollywood are about to expand.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: The borders of Bombay are about to expand.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 20 ℤ for Delhi.
Turn 74, 1040 BC: Clearing a Forest has created 20 ℤ for Delhi.

[SteelHorse]

Good work Xcal.

Like seeing the Hindu spread. Feeling much better about our defensive situation. 2 Axes in the South and soon 2 in the North. Hopefully this holds us for a bit.

Some small thoughts.

Need to expand 2-3 more cities now. We have a settler headed to Northern wheat. Should also get Deer/Cattle in the south. I would opt for Hunting ahead of CoL to help the Bombay in the north and Deer/Cattle south.

Consider switching Delhi to a settler and whip when 2-pop overflow into granary (not sure if this is quicker than pop granary with ov into settler).

We need to decide whether to go AP or not. The Islam founding complicates. We should finish granary and maybe a worker in Bolly then need to decide.

If Toku is going HBR - does that mean he has horses? If so, all the more reason for Hunting. Thinking more and more about settling a city 3N of Osaka, infecting with Hindu and gifting.

Oh - And Hammy has great wall which means a Great Spy soon. What does the AI typically do with these?