TimTheEnchanter
I...am...an Enchanter!
The Domestic Ministry asked for when we can complete research on Democracy. The science ministry tried to assess our situation and layout a few plans that we can follow to complete research on Democracy.
Ive tried to calculate these plans out as accurately as I can, however, we are dealing with so many interrelated variables, its hard to know if Ive got everything right. There is the celebration growth of Doughnutia and its impact on trade (including corruption), the value of new trade routes created, trying to project the cost of our next tech after invention. The further out in time I try to project, the likelihood of error increases exponentially.
With that in mind I have three possible plans laid out. The first two are designed to learn Democracy going into the 1180 oedo turn so that we can immediately revolt and go into Democracy government without subjecting all our cities to a turn of Anarchy. The difference between the first and second plan is that the first should provide considerable margin for error on achieving democracy in 1180. The second provides slightly more gold for rush buys in the early turns, but cuts things very close for completion of Democracy in time for the 1180 revolution. The president may need to make some last minute adjustments to reach this in time. The third plan delays the discovery of Democracy by reducing science to 10% again, and does not learn Democracy in an Oedo year. However, this plan provides a couple hundred gold per turn extra for spending on rush builds and more caravans are delivered before Invention is learned.
Please vote for one of the three plans. Also, please vote on the desirability of an instant revolution to Democracy. The Science ministry strongly urges we take advantage of this opportunity for several reasons:
-Our best city, Doughnutia should not have to suffer through Anarchy if we can avoid it
- Democracy will alleviate corruption in our more distant cities and will thus actually allow for bigger delivery payments than I have calculated for the 1180 and 1220 turns (I couldnt get that fancy!)
- We only have 6 units (5 triremes, 1 elephant) that are currently in position to cause unhappiness and no city supports more than one of these, so the unhappiness should be manageable until we get either Theology+Bach or Magnetism+Leo
Situation summary:
- We are currently researching Invention (~30% complete), which will result in our caravan delivery payments being cut in half once it is complete.
- Democracy will be available as the next tech and should be chosen for our next research.
- We have 16 caravans, 15 of which can be delivered to their destinations by 1200. 9 can reach their destinations by 1140; the other 6 will not arrive until at least 1180. Only three are currently demanded by their destinations: EF Coal to Dou (1180), Dou Hides to Tlaxcala (1200), Dou Gold to Delhi/Bangalore (later). Payoff calculations assume all three are still demanded when delivered.
- Doughnutia is size 13 and growing from celebrations. I project the city should be able to grow uninterrupted to at least size 20 without a change in the tax rate. Delivery payoffs assume an increase in population each turn at least until all trade supporting squares are occupied (i.e., get the road done on the plains SW of Dou ASAP)
- I did not assume any of the in-progress camels would be rushbuilt in time to be delivered by 1200. If some aggressive RBs are made, we might be able to deliver a couple in 1180-1200, but it didnt seem likely, so I did not deal with them at this time.
* * * * * * * * *
A1. Heavy Science Plan
Keeps 50% science until at least discovery of democracy. Should safely get democracy by 1180 for instant revolution.
- 50% science, Net 40g/turn from taxes
- Deliver 5 of 6 possible caravans by 1120, before invention
- Learn Invention going into 1140
- Learn Democracy going into 1180 Instant revolution possible*
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-150
--1140-130
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500
A2. Riskier Science Plan
40% science for 2 turns significantly increases risks of not learning democracy in time for instant revolution but gives more gold up front for spending on finishing camels and building improvements. Gives about 90 more gold in first 3 turns than Heavy Science.
-40% science in 1100 and 1120 (leading into 1120 and 1140 turns) gives 75g from taxes for 2 turns then back to 50% to complete Democracy
-all 6 possible caravans delivered to Dou before invention
-Learn Invention going into 1140
-Learn Democracy going into 1180 instant revolution possible*
- If calculations are not right, we may need to go above 50% science to hit democracy on time in 1180.
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-100
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500
A3. Max Gold plan
Puts science back down to 10% through 1220 to max taxes so the MoDA can buy lots and lots of shiny new toys
Delays discovery of Democracy to around 1220 such that we are pushed back to 1260 oedo year (revolt in 1240) and will have to go through 1 full turn of Anarchy to get to Demo government.
-10% science,~60 beakers/turn - 210g/turn from taxes
-8 of 9 caravans that can reach Dou by 1140 are delivered before invention
-Invention learned going into 1160
-Democracy learned going into 1220
-Hides to Tlaxcala used to complete Democracy
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-160
--1160 - 20
--1180-240
--1200-500
* * * * * * * * *
*=Instant Revolution may still result in a few cities being processed in Anarchy during the turn, but many cities, most importantly Doughnutia, would be spared Anarchy in both plans.
Foreign deliveries: The Hides caravan to Tlaxcala should provide around 460gold, after discovery of Invention. Because of Golds high payoff and the long distance, the delivery to India should provide a maximum payment of around 650-700g even after invention. However the Gold is so many turns from its destination, it does not factor into any of the plans
Ive tried to calculate these plans out as accurately as I can, however, we are dealing with so many interrelated variables, its hard to know if Ive got everything right. There is the celebration growth of Doughnutia and its impact on trade (including corruption), the value of new trade routes created, trying to project the cost of our next tech after invention. The further out in time I try to project, the likelihood of error increases exponentially.
With that in mind I have three possible plans laid out. The first two are designed to learn Democracy going into the 1180 oedo turn so that we can immediately revolt and go into Democracy government without subjecting all our cities to a turn of Anarchy. The difference between the first and second plan is that the first should provide considerable margin for error on achieving democracy in 1180. The second provides slightly more gold for rush buys in the early turns, but cuts things very close for completion of Democracy in time for the 1180 revolution. The president may need to make some last minute adjustments to reach this in time. The third plan delays the discovery of Democracy by reducing science to 10% again, and does not learn Democracy in an Oedo year. However, this plan provides a couple hundred gold per turn extra for spending on rush builds and more caravans are delivered before Invention is learned.
Please vote for one of the three plans. Also, please vote on the desirability of an instant revolution to Democracy. The Science ministry strongly urges we take advantage of this opportunity for several reasons:
-Our best city, Doughnutia should not have to suffer through Anarchy if we can avoid it
- Democracy will alleviate corruption in our more distant cities and will thus actually allow for bigger delivery payments than I have calculated for the 1180 and 1220 turns (I couldnt get that fancy!)
- We only have 6 units (5 triremes, 1 elephant) that are currently in position to cause unhappiness and no city supports more than one of these, so the unhappiness should be manageable until we get either Theology+Bach or Magnetism+Leo
Situation summary:
- We are currently researching Invention (~30% complete), which will result in our caravan delivery payments being cut in half once it is complete.
- Democracy will be available as the next tech and should be chosen for our next research.
- We have 16 caravans, 15 of which can be delivered to their destinations by 1200. 9 can reach their destinations by 1140; the other 6 will not arrive until at least 1180. Only three are currently demanded by their destinations: EF Coal to Dou (1180), Dou Hides to Tlaxcala (1200), Dou Gold to Delhi/Bangalore (later). Payoff calculations assume all three are still demanded when delivered.
- Doughnutia is size 13 and growing from celebrations. I project the city should be able to grow uninterrupted to at least size 20 without a change in the tax rate. Delivery payoffs assume an increase in population each turn at least until all trade supporting squares are occupied (i.e., get the road done on the plains SW of Dou ASAP)
- I did not assume any of the in-progress camels would be rushbuilt in time to be delivered by 1200. If some aggressive RBs are made, we might be able to deliver a couple in 1180-1200, but it didnt seem likely, so I did not deal with them at this time.
* * * * * * * * *
A1. Heavy Science Plan
Keeps 50% science until at least discovery of democracy. Should safely get democracy by 1180 for instant revolution.
- 50% science, Net 40g/turn from taxes
- Deliver 5 of 6 possible caravans by 1120, before invention
- Learn Invention going into 1140
- Learn Democracy going into 1180 Instant revolution possible*
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-150
--1140-130
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500
A2. Riskier Science Plan
40% science for 2 turns significantly increases risks of not learning democracy in time for instant revolution but gives more gold up front for spending on finishing camels and building improvements. Gives about 90 more gold in first 3 turns than Heavy Science.
-40% science in 1100 and 1120 (leading into 1120 and 1140 turns) gives 75g from taxes for 2 turns then back to 50% to complete Democracy
-all 6 possible caravans delivered to Dou before invention
-Learn Invention going into 1140
-Learn Democracy going into 1180 instant revolution possible*
- If calculations are not right, we may need to go above 50% science to hit democracy on time in 1180.
- Next tech in 1220
- Opportunity to lower science rate going into 1200, 1220 for more gold
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-100
--1160 - 0
--1180-240
--1200-500
A3. Max Gold plan
Puts science back down to 10% through 1220 to max taxes so the MoDA can buy lots and lots of shiny new toys
Delays discovery of Democracy to around 1220 such that we are pushed back to 1260 oedo year (revolt in 1240) and will have to go through 1 full turn of Anarchy to get to Demo government.-10% science,~60 beakers/turn - 210g/turn from taxes
-8 of 9 caravans that can reach Dou by 1140 are delivered before invention
-Invention learned going into 1160
-Democracy learned going into 1220
-Hides to Tlaxcala used to complete Democracy
- Approx. gold from deliveries
--1100-150
--1120-220
--1140-160
--1160 - 20
--1180-240
--1200-500
* * * * * * * * *
*=Instant Revolution may still result in a few cities being processed in Anarchy during the turn, but many cities, most importantly Doughnutia, would be spared Anarchy in both plans.
Foreign deliveries: The Hides caravan to Tlaxcala should provide around 460gold, after discovery of Invention. Because of Golds high payoff and the long distance, the delivery to India should provide a maximum payment of around 650-700g even after invention. However the Gold is so many turns from its destination, it does not factor into any of the plans
