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Brighteye
Last Activity:
Aug 16, 2012
Joined:
Jan 19, 2006
Messages:
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Location:
Oxford
Occupation:
student

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Brighteye

intuitively Bayesian, from Oxford

Brighteye was last seen:
Aug 16, 2012
    1. Yared
      Yared
      That's something I could agree on.

      BTW, it's better if you reply on my profile instead.
    2. Brighteye
      Brighteye
      Probably. I take many things as certain, but in a great many cases I'm much happier with uncertainty than some people. Science currently tests hypotheses and if they pass an arbitrary limit of probability they're declared true. We ought to use levels of confidence instead, in science and in life. People are irrationally stubborn (studies show): they stick with falsehood or poor choices. A Bayesian approach helps determine what are poor choices and helps people feel more comfortable with changing their minds.
    3. Yared
      Yared
      A visitor message is what you're reading right now :lol: It's a public message that's on this page.
    4. Yared
      Yared
      So a Bayesian thinks that nothing is certain (that is, we can't know for certain that something is 100% true, since we aren't omnipotent), only that some things are more probable than others?
    5. Brighteye
      Brighteye
      What is a visitor message anyway? I've never had one before.
    6. Brighteye
      Brighteye
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference
      'One of the crucial features of the Bayesian view is that a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under the frequentist view, a hypothesis is typically rejected or not rejected without directly assigning a probability.'
      Most people have a truth and change it when enough evidence has accumulated. Some people learn to treat truths as more or less probable, but have to do this consciously. This leads to paradigm-shifting, because people stubbornly resist new evidence until it's really overwhelming.
    7. Yared
      Yared
      What does it mean to be a Bayesian? Does it just mean that you like to use the Bayesian Inference in everyday life?
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  • About

    Location:
    Oxford
    Occupation:
    student
    Civ5 Versions:
    Civ4 Versions:
    • Regular Edition
    Civ3 Versions:
    • Civilization III
    • Play the World
    • Conquests
    Civ2 Versions:
    • Civilization II
    • Test of Time
    Civ1 Versions:
    • Civ Win
    Col Versions:
    • Original (1994)