Coups are very powerful, but completely rely on RNG. Losing a coup also sends your influence to rock bottom and kills your spy.

This proposal would add a way to guarantee successful coups, at the cost of spy turns.

Current formula of base success rate B = (50 - D / 25)%

Current formula of final success rate R = B * (1 + 0.1 * (L - LE + IB)) * (1 + PM)

Proposed formula of base success rate B = (50 - D /

Proposed formula of final success rate R =

where D = influence difference from current ally

L = 0, 1, 2 for Recruit, Agent and Special Agent respectively

LE = Rank of Enemy Spy, if there is one in the CS

IB = Rank bonus from Cultural Influence: 1 if the player's culture is popular over the current ally of the CS, 2 if influential, 3 if dominant

PM = Modifier from Policies (currently only used for "covert action" with a value of 1)

N = number of successful rigged elections done by any of your spies in this CS after the last successful coup

N is limited to "after the last successful coup" in order to

1. prevent easy counter-coup 20 turns after a successful one;

2. create a dilemma where you both want to coup later for higher success chance and earlier than your rival does.

Spy rank difference is moved to the formula for B to make spy rank always helpful in coups (otherwise it doesn't matter if B is 100%).

Rationale of changing the formula for R, as mentioned in comments:

Now it's possible to have a 100% success rate of coup if your spy stays for long enough.

EDIT 1: Changed the proposed formula and title after getting the full current formula from @axatin

This proposal would add a way to guarantee successful coups, at the cost of spy turns.

Current formula of base success rate B = (50 - D / 25)%

Current formula of final success rate R = B * (1 + 0.1 * (L - LE + IB)) * (1 + PM)

Proposed formula of base success rate B = (50 - D /

**(25 - (L - LE) * 5)****+ N * 20**)%Proposed formula of final success rate R =

**1 - (1 - B) ^ ((1 + 0.2 * IB) * (1 + PM))**where D = influence difference from current ally

L = 0, 1, 2 for Recruit, Agent and Special Agent respectively

LE = Rank of Enemy Spy, if there is one in the CS

IB = Rank bonus from Cultural Influence: 1 if the player's culture is popular over the current ally of the CS, 2 if influential, 3 if dominant

PM = Modifier from Policies (currently only used for "covert action" with a value of 1)

N = number of successful rigged elections done by any of your spies in this CS after the last successful coup

N is limited to "after the last successful coup" in order to

1. prevent easy counter-coup 20 turns after a successful one;

2. create a dilemma where you both want to coup later for higher success chance and earlier than your rival does.

Spy rank difference is moved to the formula for B to make spy rank always helpful in coups (otherwise it doesn't matter if B is 100%).

Rationale of changing the formula for R, as mentioned in comments:

However, for a one-time hit-or-miss chance, direct multiplication is a terrible way to modify the success rate. Instead we should make a 2x modifier equate the success rate of performing two coups in a row with the base rate. The resultant success rate would then always be bounded in the (0,1) range without any explicit min/maxing.

Now it's possible to have a 100% success rate of coup if your spy stays for long enough.

EDIT 1: Changed the proposed formula and title after getting the full current formula from @axatin

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