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2 x Sci Leaders

Discussion in 'Civ3 - General Discussions' started by xyresic, Sep 24, 2008.

  1. xyresic

    xyresic Chieftain

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    Ottomans on a really bad start. Regent. Working for a Philosophy Slingshot. Get Philosophy and then take Map Making as my free tech. I didn't even realize what happened till I started cycling through my units.



    Not a great pic, so look closely at the list of units stationed in Istanbul. Both on the same turn. Think I'll go get a lotto ticket.
     
  2. Son_Of_Dido

    Son_Of_Dido Prince

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    I've gotten it to happen to me a second time the other day.

    Both times on a Philosophy-Republic slingshot, both times with the Germans.

    It is the most amazing luck, no?

    I wonder what the actual odds are of this happening.

    With that Island start, I'm thinking you take G Lighthouse and G Library, and then get out and meet people?
     
  3. nerovats

    nerovats Emperor

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    Odds are 1 in 400 for scientific civ and 9 in 1000 for non scientific.
     
  4. anaxagoras

    anaxagoras King

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    You slipped a zero, there. The non-scientific odds are 9 in 10,000.
     
  5. Xethorsiph

    Xethorsiph Chieftain

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    Since Ottomans are scientific, the chances of this are 1 in 1600.
     
  6. Othniel

    Othniel fighting for Achsah

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    No, nerovats is right. For a SCI civ, chances are 1 in 400.

    A sci civ has 5% chance of getting an SGL when they are the first to discover a new tech. The math for SGL events happening back-to-back are:

    0.05 x 0.05 = 0.0025 OR 1 in 400.
     
  7. Chamnix

    Chamnix Chasing Time

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    The AI should demand a reload.
     
  8. anaxagoras

    anaxagoras King

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    Right, but for non-scientific, the math is 0.03 x 0.03 = 0.0009, or 9 in 10,000 (i.e. just a bit less than 1 in 1,000).

    Cross-posted with your edit, Othniel, but I'm still correct. 9 in 1,000 is actually greater than 1 in 400 (which equates to 2.5 in 1,000), so you know that can't be right.
     
  9. Othniel

    Othniel fighting for Achsah

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    :lol: Cursed be my slow editing! :D

    Yeah, once I stopped and thought for just ONE more second, I realized it would be logically impossibly for it to be 9 in 1000. :hammer2:
     
  10. Othniel

    Othniel fighting for Achsah

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    Only humans have the right to a reload. :D
     
  11. Spoonwood

    Spoonwood Grand Philosopher

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    Nerovats said:
    Othniel said
    I'll assume nerovats meant 'probability' instead of 'odds'. The probability for two consecutive SGLs (assuming such events independent) as a scientific tribe, as already pointed out, equals (1/20)^2=1/400. However, the odds for such equals (1/400)/(1-(1/400))=(1/400)/(399/400)=1/399.
     
  12. ecuwins

    ecuwins Emperor

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    That is the bomb! :D Sometimes it is just like magic. I have gotten up to 5 SGLs in games but never simultaneously.
     
  13. anaxagoras

    anaxagoras King

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    Alright, if we're going to get pedantic, odds shouldn't really be expressed as a fraction. They should be expressed as a ratio. So the odds of getting two consecutive scientific leaders for a scientific civilization are properly 1:399 (colloquially, "one to three hundred ninety-nine"). Which is, of course, exactly equal to the probability of 1/400 (colloquially, "one in four hundred" or "one out of four hundred").

    I think the discussion was enough to disambiguate the issue, but YMMV.
     
  14. Spoonwood

    Spoonwood Grand Philosopher

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    The distinction between probability and odds doesn't come as pedantic, since odds and probability don't equal each other in general. They are conceptually distinct, as well as numerically distinct (usually). Saying 1/399 as opposed to 1:399 does since using '/' as opposed to ':' or vice versa has no effect on meaning.
     
  15. anaxagoras

    anaxagoras King

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    The meaning was clear in the initial discussion.
     
  16. Turner

    Turner Deity Retired Moderator

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    Moderator Action: Okay...moving on....
     
  17. Sharwood

    Sharwood Rich, doctor nephew

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    Awesome. I'd get that lottery ticket, and proposition a few women while you're at it.

    I'd go with what Son of Dido said on an island start. Incidentally, that island looks EXACTLY the same as the one I started on in my current game. The only possible differences are where you have your cities and the parts I can't see.
     

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