2004 Election Prediction Thread (for fun)

[SeleucusNicator]

Well, its 11 months until the next US Presidential election. Pretty soon, we'll know things like who the Democratic nominees will be, who won what Senatorial primary, just how good/bad the economy will be, how the war in Iraq is going, what unemployment is like, etc.

All of this means one thing: the time to make blind, foolhardy predictions is fleeting. With that in mind, let us act quickly, so in November we can all look back and laugh at how horribly wrong (or boast at how horribly right) we were.

I'll start off with my electoral map, with Senate numbers below it. (A second post will come up shortly to tell you how you can do the same):

 

[SeleucusNicator]

I've attached a blank map of the United States to this post.

To make a prediction, download the blank map and open it in any image editing software. Color states that you think will vote for the REPUBLICAN presidential candidate RED, and states you think will go for the DEMOCRAT go BLUE.

Independents are YELLOW on the state map and GREEN if you wish to post Senate figures, unless you can find a shade of yellow that shows up well unoutlined on a white background

 

[The Yankee]

I predict that there will be an election.

I'll get more serious when I think about it a bit more.

 

[Pontiuth Pilate]

That bad, eh?

Some of your guesses are rather outlandish. Pennsylvania & Arkansas will be blue for sure [Steel tariffs and Clinton]; New Mexico is staunchly Democrat, Florida and Iowa can be won.

 

[Ossric]

i'll wait untill the Democratic candidate has been elected in the primary. But i think it will be safe to say that you can already paint Texas red.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Originally posted by Pontiuth Pilate
That bad, eh?

I'm a pessimistic person.

Some of your guesses are rather outlandish. Pennsylvania & Arkansas will be blue for sure [Steel tariffs and Clinton]; New Mexico is staunchly Democrat, Florida and Iowa can be won.

Clinton isn't running, and Bush won Arkansas in 2000. Gore won New Mexico by 283 votes in 2000. Bush is leading by double-digits in Florida, where he retains a friendly state government.

Pennsylvania and Iowa will be close, but I predict that the new GOP strategies for vote-out-getting will swing them to Bush in the last 72 hours before the election.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Originally posted by Ossric
i'll wait untill the Democratic candidate has been elected in the primary.

Except that violates the idea behind the thread.

[edit] there is also virtually nothing capable of stopping Dean now [/edit]

 

[Pontiuth Pilate]

I predict that there will be an election.

That depends on whether or not the US Attorney General is run over by a bus in time to safeguard our democracy

 

[Toaae]

All I have to say is this:

4 MORE YEARS!!!!

There is no doubt in my head that Bush will win.

 

[Azadre]

I don't want him to win, he's a bad man

 

[The Yankee]

This reminds me of John Edwards' interactive electoral map.

I shall be bold here.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Originally posted by The Yankee
This reminds me of John Edwards' interactive electoral map.

Linkage?

 

[The Yankee]

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

It also gives outcomes for elections dating back to 1980.

 

[cgannon64]

I knew Reagan beat Mondale in a landslide, but...

Was Minnesota his home state, BTW?

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Yes.

 

[The Yankee]

Mondale also won D.C.!

But, you'll see it's partly why I put in Arkansas and Tennessee in my map. They were fairly close in 2000, and I believe a strong Southern campaign with a southern candidate or VP candidate could turn things around. Not every Southerner is some gun-toting, Bible-thumping Republican backer. I could have probably shaed NH blue, but I went on a strange feeling that it would stay red.

 

[onejayhawk]

SN is a little cautious.

J

 

[Smaasnekje]

as with the last election, democrats will get the smart states


It was an internet joke wich starred clinton and ted kennedy, but i cannot recall where it was..

 

[onejayhawk]

I wish there was a similar map for Senate seats.

J

 

[The Yankee]

Why not make one? With your colors for both Democrat, both Republican, and a third color for split....I don't know what to do about that darned Independent that's there.