2013 NCAA Football Thread

Wrymouth3

Wrymouth3

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No College Football thread would be complete with a kick off of an SEC centric list:
the Athlon Sports SEC Football 2013 All-Conference Team

First-Team Offense

QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
TE Arthur Lynch, Georgia
C Travis Swanson, Arkansas
OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State
OG Anthony Steen, Alabama
OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama
OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M

First-Team Defense
DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina
DE Chris Smith, Arkansas
DT Dominique Easley, Florida
DT Anthony Johnson, LSU
LB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia
LB A.J. Johnson, Tennessee
LB C.J. Mosley, Alabama
CB Andre Hal, Vanderbilt
CB Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida
S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Alabama
S Craig Loston, LSU

First-Team Specialists
K Carey Spear, Vanderbilt
P Kyle Christy, Florida
KR Andre Debose, Florida
PR Marcus Murphy, Missouri

Second-Team Offense

QB AJ McCarron, Alabama
RB Keith Marshall, Georgia
RB LaDarius Perkins, Mississippi State
WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M
WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss
TE Rory Anderson, South Carolina
C James Stone, Tennessee
OG Chris Burnette, Georgia
OG Aaron Morris, Ole Miss
OT Wesley Johnson, Vanderbilt
OT Antonio Richardson, Tennessee

Second-Team Defense
DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky
DE C.J. Johnson, Ole Miss
DT Byran Jones, Arkansas
DT Kelcy Quarles, South Carolina
LB Lamin Barrow, LSU
LB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama
LB Denzel Nkemdiche, Ole Miss
CB Deshazor Everett, Texas A&M
CB Marcus Roberson, Florida

S Kenny Ladler, Vanderbilt
S Nickoe Whitley, Mississippi State

Second-Team Specialists

K Cody Parkey, Auburn
P Steven Clark, Auburn
KR Marcus Murphy, Missouri
PR Jonathan Krause, Vanderbilt

Third-Team Offense

QB Aaron Murray, Georgia
RB Ben Malena, Texas A&M
RB Tre Mason, Auburn
WR Odell Beckham Jr., LSU
WR Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
TE Malcolm Johnson, Mississippi State
C Ryan Kelly, Alabama
OG Jon Halapio, Florida
OG Jarvis Harrison, Texas A&M
OT Ja'Waun James, Tennessee
OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M

Third-Team Defense

DE Denico Autry, Mississippi State
DE Walker May, Vanderbilt
DT Daniel McCullers, Tennessee
DT Donte Rumph, Kentucky
LB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State

LB Antonio Morrison, Florida
LB Avery Williamson, Kentucky
CB E.J. Gaines, Missouri
CB Damian Swann, Georgia
S Eric Bennett, Arkansas
S Cody Prewitt, Ole Miss

Third-Team Specialists

K Zach Hocker, Arkansas
P Tyler Campbell, Ole Miss
KR Trey Williams, Texas A&M
PR Odell Beckham Jr., LSU

Fourth-Team Offense

QB Connor Shaw, South Carolina
RB Jeremy Hill, LSU
RB Jeff Scott, Ole Miss
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
WR Bruce Ellington, South Carolina
TE OJ Howard, Alabama
C Jonotthan Harrison, Florida
OG A.J. Cann, South Carolina
OG Zach Fulton, Tennessee
OT La’El Collins, LSU
OT John Theus, Georgia

Fourth-Team Defense
DE Dee Ford, Auburn
DE Dante Fowler, Florida
DT Isaac Gross, Ole Miss
DT Brandon Ivory, Alabama
LB Trey DePriest, Alabama
LB Chase Garnham, Vanderbilt
LB Steven Jenkins, Texas A&M
CB Jalen Mills, LSU

CB Charles Sawyer, Ole Miss
S Demetruce McNeal, Auburn
S Jaylen Watkins, Florida

Fourth-Team Specialists
K Taylor Bertolet, Texas A&M
P Cody Mandell, Alabama
KR Bruce Ellington, South Carolina
PR Christion Jones, Alabama
 
Eight of the eighteen players in Kentucky's number-one-for-the-moment recruiting class are from Ohio, three of them four stars. From 2010 to 2013, they had eight total players from Ohio, and only two of them are four stars.

Now, obviously, Kentucky is not going to stay at number one. Their eighteen verbals are more than all but two other schools at this point in the process, so they'll drop down the rankings as other teams fill out their classes. And of those eighteen verbals, only five are four stars and zero are five stars, with only one of the twelve remaining uncommitted five stars having shown any interest in Kentucky at all. But overall Mark Stoops seems to be off to a fast start . . .
 
There is a 0% chance Stoops keeps that class together when Kentucky wins maybe 3 games this season.

The new foothold in Ohio is important though. Not sure why Kentucky never really tried there before over the last 10 years, especially since Southern Ohio is hardly Ohio State territory...
 
Nice post Mac. I kinda hate Manziel though :P (mostly cause I'm a Bama fan).

I hope the kid has a good career, but he's just itching to get popped one of these times or tear something, and he'll be out a good while. Few years left at college, pending he goes through Senior without opting for draft........it'll be fun to watch.

Roll Tide!
 
Dick Coffee died Friday. He had attended 781 consecutive Alabama games, every one since the first game of his freshman year in 1946. ESPN frequently highlighted him during its Alabama broadcasts.
downtown said:
There is a 0% chance Stoops keeps that class together when Kentucky wins maybe 3 games this season.
Click to expand...
I think they could win four, which would be double what they did last year. And I don't think that would really hurt the class. He's got to be selling playing time and the opportunity to be the class that turns the program around, which is what Saban sold in '08 and what Freeze sold last year. It seems recruits find that sort of thing compelling.
downtown said:
Speaking of Kentucky, one study found they're actually substantially better at producing NFL draft picks than anybody else in the SEC, including Alabama!

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/20...tter-than-alabama-at-creating-nfl-draft-picks
Click to expand...
Okay, I'm not reading that whole thing but just look at the criteria. Of course you're going to send a higher percentage of your four and five star recruits to the NFL if you only have a handful of them. They're going to star on your team from day one until they decide to try for the draft. At a place like Alabama they risk being lost in a sea of talent and perhaps never beating out their fellow four and five stars for significant playing time. It's a testament to Saban's process that he's able to keep attracting so many of them in spite of this fact . . .
 
ummmm........ said:
I think they could win four, which would be double what they did last year. And I don't think that would really hurt the class. He's got to be selling playing time and the opportunity to be the class that turns the program around, which is what Saban sold in '08 and what Freeze sold last year. It seems recruits find that sort of thing compelling.
Click to expand...
4 would be a huge success. They're going to be massive underdogs against louisville, and underdogs period against Western Kentucky. Miami (OH) and Alabama State are likely wins, but who are they beating in the league? Mississippi State is on the road, and Tenn should be a lot better. Maybe they get Missouri? I'd put the O/U on 3.5.

Okay, I'm not reading that whole thing but just look at the criteria. Of course you're going to send a higher percentage of your four and five star recruits to the NFL if you only have a handful of them. They're going to star on your team from day one until they decide to try for the draft. At a place like Alabama they risk being lost in a sea of talent and perhaps never beating out their fellow four and five stars for significant playing time. It's a testament to Saban's process that he's able to keep attracting so many of them in spite of this fact . . .
Click to expand...

That's really the point. If your goal was just to make the NFL, and you didn't care about how many games you won, your best bet would be to blow everybody away at a mid-tier BCS program. The guy specifically mentions a fairly high out rate for 5 Star guys at Bama, and says that, surprise! 18 year old high school kids may not be acting in their best interest.
 
downtown said:
4 would be a huge success. They're going to be massive underdogs against louisville, and underdogs period against Western Kentucky. Miami (OH) and Alabama State are likely wins, but who are they beating in the league? Mississippi State is on the road, and Tenn should be a lot better. Maybe they get Missouri? I'd put the O/U on 3.5.
Click to expand...
They're definitely not beating Louisville, so they would have to get a conference win. Miss State, Missouri and Tennessee would be the best candidates, but remember the Georgia game was a lot closer than it should have been last year. If they can take care of business in the games where they should be competitive, they'll only have to get lucky once :dunno:
That's really the point. If your goal was just to make the NFL, and you didn't care about how many games you won, your best bet would be to blow everybody away at a mid-tier BCS program. The guy specifically mentions a fairly high out rate for 5 Star guys at Bama, and says that, surprise! 18 year old high school kids may not be acting in their best interest.
Click to expand...
But, but, winning a national title is so much better than playing in the NFL :mischief:

EDIT: Okay, fine, I read the study now, and it says what I expected it to say:
me said:
Of course you're going to send a higher percentage of your four and five star recruits to the NFL if you only have a handful of them. They're going to star on your team from day one until they decide to try for the draft. At a place like Alabama they risk being lost in a sea of talent and perhaps never beating out their fellow four and five stars for significant playing time.
Click to expand...
But it doesn't mention a high out rate for five stars from Alabama.

Of the ten five stars -- Rivals, Scout or consensus -- we signed from '08 through '10, six went in the first round, one went in the fourth round, two transferred and one washed out but still stuck around and graduated. So that's .6 for the the first day of the draft -- vs. .23 across the study -- and .7 overall vs. .33. Of the fifteen five stars we've signed since 2010, fourteen are still on the team and one was dismissed after being indicted for robbery and credit card fraud. So we're actually doing pretty well with our five stars.

The study does mention a high out rate for four stars from Alabama's '09 class, but that data is even more misleading than what you would already expect from such a small sample. First off, I can't find where they mention which recruiting service they're using. They list eleven four stars in Alabama's '09 class. Rivals lists fourteen and Scout lists twelve. 247 Sports lists eleven, but a different eleven than those listed by the study. I looked at the methodology post but I didn't see any reference to where they're getting their data.

But even using the eleven four stars the study lists, one -- Eddie Lacy -- has been drafted. He went in the second round, which is on the first day of the draft. One out of eleven is .09. The study lists an expectation of .09 draft picks -- and .05 first day picks -- for every four star recruit signed across all schools for the entire study. So their example of Alabama's high out rate for four stars in the '09 class is actually slightly above average according to their own data. Or it would be, if it didn't ignore the fact that Kenny Bell, AJ McCarron and Kevin Norwood are still in school and are fairly likely to squeak in somewhere in the '14 draft. That would remove the 'slightly' part of the assessment. Two other players -- Tana Patrick and Ed Stinson -- are also still in school, but I am unaware of their projected draft status.

I can do a list for all our Rivals and Scout four stars since '08, but it's going to be a minute . . .
 
downtown said:
Speaking of Kentucky, one study found they're actually substantially better at producing NFL draft picks than anybody else in the SEC, including Alabama!

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/20...tter-than-alabama-at-creating-nfl-draft-picks
Click to expand...

Unless I'm failing at math, that's the silliest study I've ever seen. Here's why:

Let's imagine two teams, Alabama and Kentucky. Alabama's 25 graduating players comprise 10 former 4-5* recruits and 15 others. Kentucky's 25 graduating players comprise only 1 4-5* recruit and 24 others.

So the NFL draft comes, and all 10 of Alabama's good recruits are chosen. 5 of their less heralded players make the cut as well. So their "conversion rate" is 15/10 = 1.5.

Kentucky's 1 good recruit is not chosen, but 2 of their other players are. So their "conversion rate" is 2/1 = 2. So Kentucky is better at making NFL players than Alabama, right? 2 > 1.5, after all.

But that's preposterous! Alabama beat Kentucky in every way. They got a higher percentage of their top recruits drafted (100% to 0%) AND of their lesser recruits drafted (33% to 8.25%). But because of Kentucky's bad recruiting, one single drafted player gives them a huge boost under this metric.

Hell, I bet Jackson State has never had a 4-5* recruit, but they still get some players into the NFL. Their "conversion rate" is infinity! If you wanna play in the league, they can't be beat!

Tell me I'm not understanding the stat they're using here. Because otherwise, jesus.
 
"I can prove anything by statistics except the truth." - George Canning

And my other favorite statistics quote:

"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that." - Homer Simpson
 
shortguy said:
Unless I'm failing at math, that's the silliest study I've ever seen. Here's why:

Let's imagine two teams, Alabama and Kentucky. Alabama's 25 graduating players comprise 10 former 4-5* recruits and 15 others. Kentucky's 25 graduating players comprise only 1 4-5* recruit and 24 others.

So the NFL draft comes, and all 10 of Alabama's good recruits are chosen. 5 of their less heralded players make the cut as well. So their "conversion rate" is 15/10 = 1.5.

Kentucky's 1 good recruit is not chosen, but 2 of their other players are. So their "conversion rate" is 2/1 = 2. So Kentucky is better at making NFL players than Alabama, right? 2 > 1.5, after all.

But that's preposterous! Alabama beat Kentucky in every way. They got a higher percentage of their top recruits drafted (100% to 0%) AND of their lesser recruits drafted (33% to 8.25%). But because of Kentucky's bad recruiting, one single drafted player gives them a huge boost under this metric.

Hell, I bet Jackson State has never had a 4-5* recruit, but they still get some players into the NFL. Their "conversion rate" is infinity! If you wanna play in the league, they can't be beat!

Tell me I'm not understanding the stat they're using here. Because otherwise, jesus.
Click to expand...

Tell me how often this scenario plays out year to year before you call it useless. In the hypothetical you describe, yeah, that might be the case, for that year.
 
I don't know. I'm just saying that, for a team made up of 90-95% non-4-5* recruits, those other 75-80 players are a heck of a confounding factor. I'm not sure it's even wrong to think that one would have a better chance of making the NFL from Kentucky than Alabama, but the metric used seems fatally flawed to me. I expect better from people who call themselves sports analytics experts.
 
Yeah, I agree with the study's finding that a premier high school player stands a better chance of advancing to the NFL if he goes to a school with a lot of resources but not a lot of premier players, but it seems to be supported with bad math. OTOH, if they showed us the math instead of just summarizing the results, it would probably make more sense. We the data they show us, they could have just as easily concluded that recruiting rankings are a poor indicator of player success, which is something else we already know . . .

EDIT: It reminds me of the much ballyhooed benefit of enrolling early. There are tons of examples of players who enroll in the spring and have breakout first years. But if you actually look at all of Alabama's early enrollees over a span of years, there are just as many misses as hits . . .
 
Slap on the wrist for Oregon. Three years probation, one scholarship for two years, eighteen months show cause for the Eagles' Chip Kelly . . .

EDIT: Sorry, one scholarship for three years . . .
 
Only two weeks till media days . . .

EDIT: ESPN's televising media days live this year, according to twitter. Doesn't really seem like the sort of thing that would benefit from live tv. Kind of the opposite, really. There's something to be said for quality editing . . .
 
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