azzaman333
meh
Spoiler :Okay, I couldn't find data for international matches in the time I was willing to spend on this, but I used the last 5 seasons' Premier League results. So 5*38 matches -- which in fairness is a lot more matches than I'd get for international matches. Also, the teams all play each other, so the model doesn't need to do a whole lot of inferring. The only inferences it needs to make are for teams that weren't in the EPL for the entire period. So it's quite a full set of data. International matches would surely suffer from lack of data, but I think this is decent enough as a Proof of Concept.
Anyway, here are the ratings from a simple regression:
Spoiler :Team Rating
Man United 100
Man City 100
Chelsea 98.67847251
Arsenal 91.24987148
Liverpool 86.74672761
Tottenham 79.9527655
Everton 77.00189131
Southampton 67.34082524
Swansea 65.57085085
Newcastle 61.48417829
Stoke 60.30450676
West Brom 59.96917222
Sunderland 59.77150928
Fulham 58.71666108
Aston Villa 58.59152678
Crystal Palace 56.37806953
West Ham 55.47980011
Birmingham 55.20307239
Blackburn 53.13381893
Norwich 52.59403121
Bolton 51.5010988
Blackpool 49.78606726
QPR 47.94238609
Wigan 46.36281808
Hull 46.15081066
Reading 45.83081317
Wolves 44.60609349
Portsmouth 41.1694753
Cardiff 37.03001916
Burnley 36.14653848
EDIT: I should say, I set the ratings to be capped at 100. I might change that, cos there's a lot of bunching at the top apparently.
EDIT2: here we go (added a new coefficient, rather than uncapping it):
Team Rating
Man City 100
Man United 99.66432344
Chelsea 98.04183822
Arsenal 88.14217575
Liverpool 82.28388009
Tottenham 73.05871513
Everton 69.14361476
Southampton 56.1279588
Swansea 54.04388897
Newcastle 48.6834998
Stoke 47.55741922
Sunderland 46.44663783
West Brom 46.38355903
Fulham 45.13295989
Aston Villa 44.66287277
Crystal Palace 41.68245462
West Ham 40.91714886
Birmingham 40.54873051
Blackburn 38.27243406
Norwich 37.30300328
Bolton 35.42319069
Blackpool 32.74057874
QPR 30.28019169
Hull 28.56939532
Wigan 28.28378844
Reading 27.70709578
Wolves 25.77749475
Portsmouth 21.73979115
Burnley 16.85879097
Cardiff 15.94182248
It's still worse than an Elo model though. The table below is where my Elo model for the EPL had the clubs at the start of March 2014.
Chelsea 1387
Man City 1377
Arsenal 1310
Liverpool 1302
Tottenham 1222
Man United 1222
Everton 1189
Southampton 1068
West Ham 1046
Newcastle 1016
Hull 961
Swansea 960
Norwich 956
Stoke 950
Sunderland 938
West Brom 920
Crystal Palace 911
Aston Villa 910
Fulham 822
Cardiff 790
Clearly, the Elo model is a lot better at showing the relative strengths of the teams at any given time over a regression model.