2018 U.S election

[Berzerker]

our new guv supports medical pot, might help explain her margin of victory

recent years have been quite embarrassing for the 'conservatives' running state gov't as parents with kids suffering from seizures pleaded with them to legalize pot oil.

 

[Bootstoots]

Has anyone seen any kind of compilation of results at local/state levels? I can't even find such for California, and I'm not up for rooting through each and every state senate and state assembly race to sort out a net change...in my own state. I sure don't want to track it down times fifty, but I'd really like to know how much change there was in state house control. Last years resounding overturn of the Virginia state assembly was the highlight in how badly Trump had damaged the GOP, and I'm hoping to see a lot more evidence of that this time around.

Ballotpedia is very good about summarizing the state legislative contests, in addition to a bunch of detail on just about everything related to US elections.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The FBI has an open investigation into Matt Whitaker regarding his past scam to bilk money from inventors. That is the same Matt Whitaker who is now the head of the US Justice department. "only the best people"

 

[Berzerker]

Trump should be impeached for putting this guy in charge

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Ballotpedia is very good about summarizing the state legislative contests, in addition to a bunch of detail on just about everything related to US elections.

Thanks.

They haven't updated total seats yet, but Democrats flipped six state chambers, offset by losing one in Alaska. Democrats established sole party control across the west (NM, CO, NV), in the Northeast (NY, ME) and in Illinois. Blue states getting bluer. Republicans lost sole party control in Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Kansas. Red states sliding to purple. And with governor's races still up in the air Florida and Georgia could go as well.

 

[Bootstoots]

The FBI has an open investigation into Matt Whitaker regarding his past scam to bilk money from inventors. That is the same Matt Whitaker who is now the head of the US Justice department. "only the best people"

Sounds like someone needs a pardon. That's a good position to have your acting AG in - either they do everything you say exactly as you say it, or no pardon as a reward for loyalty. And they will commit any federal crime you want them to in your defense. You can make the pardon contingent on committing more crimes.

It is pretty amazing how far above the law the President is, contingent only on not losing so many of his (or her) own party's senators. I never fully understood that until 2017.

 

[Zkribbler]

Ballotpedia is very good ...

I too thank Boots!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Trump should be impeached for putting this guy in charge

God damn dude when did you break bad liberal? This is delicious awesomesauce

Doesn't Walters lead by 4k votes ? Do the late ballots usually lean democratic so much that Porter will make up for that lead ?

Rohrabacher and Knight look like they're toast though.

Walter's lead has dropped to 2k

 

[cardgame]

I think if we've learned one thing from Trump it's that presidential pardons should probably be removed entirely

 

[mitsho]

Next step, Hawaii emulation. In Hawaii, the state senate and assembly aren't just controlled by Democrats, they are Democrats. No GOP allowed.

So how does it work? As one-party-rule is no good for a democracy, I am sure there exist distinctions within the Hawaiian Democratic party. Factions tending more green, some more social and some more family-oriented, no? How are they organised? In other countries, these would probably be parties on their own. It works as well if they are lose unoficial groups, but it decreases transparency and hinders political science. Since, say when there‘s a debate in the Hawaiian parliament on whether to apply funds to roads or to public transportation (ferries in this case probably?), how are the party lines formed? And don‘t tell me there are no political conflicts/debates/topics in Hawaii. That would be sad.

Just trying to understand.

 

[Sommerswerd]

our new guv supports medical pot, might help explain her margin of victory

recent years have been quite embarrassing for the 'conservatives' running state gov't as parents with kids suffering from seizures pleaded with them to legalize pot oil.

Speaking of pot... medical or otherwise... I heard a commercial on satellite radio that nearly made me crash my car, so I had to go look into it.

TL;DR- Former Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner is now on the board of a company peddling investments in pot. I love it when he gets asked about all the people who've been jailed over pot (4:25)

Ballotpedia is very good about summarizing the state legislative contests, in addition to a bunch of detail on just about everything related to US elections.

Thanks Boots what a great resource.

TL;DR - This wasn't a "blue wave".

 

[Dachs]

TL;DR - This wasn't a "blue wave".

They don't make a particularly persuasive argument, tbh. Ballotpedia picked a 50 House seat swing as a more or less arbitrary marker for what counts as a "wave", mostly based on House elections from a long time ago when American politics was different in a lot of ways. Why 50? Because that makes a nice-looking cutoff for their 1918-2018 data set that makes "wave" elections a nice little 20% of total elections.

In their actual discussion of their definition of wave elections, they admit that the hundred-year data set is a little bit arbitrary, especially since most political scientists separate American political history in the past century into pre-1945 and post-1945, because Congressional politics before the New Deal and Southern Strategy were so radically different from the way they are now. It's obvious what effect that would have on the data set. And, indeed, when they adjust for that post-1945 definition, the threshold for a "wave" comes down to a swing of 30 House seats, putting 2018 well within "wave" territory. They chose not to use the post-1945 definition on the front page because...uh...reasons.

We chose to use the full 1918-2016 period for our main analysis rather than the post-1945 period because we wanted to look back at the last 100 years of elections, regardless of partisan realignments or other fundamental changes in American politics, to give readers greater context for how electoral competition has changed.

I mean...okay? I'm not sure how ignoring fundamental changes in American national politics gives "greater" context when you're trying to use the data set to create a single definition to compare things that are apparently unlike each other. And it certainly doesn't help describe what actually happened in 2018 very well.

Idiosyncratic definitions of "wave" aside, though, the shifts in the national and state legislatures were a big deal and resulted in a meaningful shift in power away from the Republican Party and an expression of popular discontent with the current administration.

 

[onejayhawk]

There is a wikki page on the subject of waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_elections_in_the_United_States

Because of the Senate, this is not one. It is also the first time in a while the polling was dead on.

 

[JollyRoger]

Because of the map, the GOP performance in the Senate races was like Michigan beating Appalachian State in Ann Arbor by a field goal. Speaking of Michigan (and Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Trump can't be feeling too confident about his chances there in 2020. The GOP Senate candidates in those states went down like a pack of Clinton interns. Even in Texas, Beto lost by a couple of points to Cruz, a man that drubbed Trump by 20 or so points there in 2016.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So how does it work? As one-party-rule is no good for a democracy, I am sure there exist distinctions within the Hawaiian Democratic party. Factions tending more green, some more social and some more family-oriented, no? How are they organised? In other countries, these would probably be parties on their own. It works as well if they are lose unoficial groups, but it decreases transparency and hinders political science. Since, say when there‘s a debate in the Hawaiian parliament on whether to apply funds to roads or to public transportation (ferries in this case probably?), how are the party lines formed? And don‘t tell me there are no political conflicts/debates/topics in Hawaii. That would be sad.

Just trying to understand.

I'm not there, so I don't know. I'm sure that they have plenty of differences on internal Hawaii issues. Republican or Democrat, in large part, just represents a stance on national issues. The Republican stance has gotten so horrific that I think living somewhere that hardly anyone would consider voting for one has a strong attraction though. A large measure of California's attraction is definitely that there aren't very many, relatively speaking.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

California's attraction is definitely that there aren't very many, relatively speaking.

This was a strong motivation for us to come here and leave the Midwest. The job prospects were obviously a primary consideration but I didn't even look at, much less apply for, jobs in Texas for example.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

This was a strong motivation for us to come here and leave the Midwest. The job prospects were obviously a primary consideration but I didn't even look at, much less apply for, jobs in Texas for example.

Within your lifetime Texas will be as blue as California is now.

 

[Silurian]

So are the Democrats going tp win the senate seat in Florida.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46166980

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So are the Democrats going tp win the senate seat in Florida.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46166980

Very unlikely. A recount that shifts the vote by thousands would be unusual to say the least.

 

[Dachs]

So are the Democrats going tp win the senate seat in Florida.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46166980

Yeah, it's pretty unlikely. Theoretically possible, but unlikely. Nelson's campaign can win if:

1. the Broward County undervote ballots all turn out to be votes for Nelson that were not registered due to machine error,
2. he wins the overseas/military votes that haven't been counted,
3. his campaign wins its current lawsuit, and
4. he manages to get the vote-by-mail ballots that were for him but that had "mismatching signatures" to count.

There's a little wiggle room in those conditions, but not much!