2019 NFL Offseason thread

[Timsup2nothin]

Still a week to go and all that playoff hoopla, but for twenty teams the off season is only five days away...and that means it's time to place your bets on the annual head coach unemployment derby. With two already down there are people talking record breaker, with maybe double digit firings...but I think they are double dipping and considering the "firings" of Philbin in Green Bay and Williams in Cleveland in their counts. Still, even counting the Browns and the Packers just once each eight seems like a very valid number, so I'd set the over/under at seven and a half.

Interim coaches might keep those jobs, so I'd say the surest opening in the league is in Denver. The Broncos clearly quit on national television on Monday, against the hated and puny Raiders no less, so Vance Joseph is toast. Dirk Koetter in Tampa is widely viewed as being on the hottest hot seat, but I think it is possible that he and Jamis Winston get one more chance. Firing Koetter would pretty much mean giving up on Winston, and I think Tampa has invested so much in him that they almost can't give up until his contract actually runs out.

Wilkes in Arizona certainly hasn't shown anything, and Todd Bowles with the Jets hasn't either. If the world is right and I'm wrong on Koetter that gets us to six already.

So, one more to threaten the over and two to win with it...and so many possibles...

Marvin Lewis is yet again a possibility. That guy holds the record for number of seasons ending with a coach expecting to be fired though, so who knows?

Adam Gace in Miami...does a miracle win over the Patriots count enough to keep him? And here again, does firing him mean giving up on Tannehill?

Jay Gruden doesn't deserve to get fired for finishing the season with a fourth quarterback and a bunch of strangers coming together to play on the line...but ownership in Washington is notoriously short tempered and short sighted, so maybe.

Doug Marrone could be fired in J'ville. High expectations and a really bad season can make a short leash.

The collapse of the Panthers could put an end to Ron Rivera.

Another epic playoff collapse could turn things around for Jason Garrett, and the Seahawks are just the team to do it to him.

So, that's first thing to consider for the off-season...then we can start thinking about quarterback roulette and the draft. I'm taking the under on the coach thing, by the way. Seven seems like a lock, but seven is a lot.

 

[Serutan]

Interim coaches might keep those jobs, so I'd say the surest opening in the league is in Denver.

Yep, not trying against a hated rival has to be the final nail in the coffin.

Dirk Koetter in Tampa is widely viewed as being on the hottest hot seat, but I think it is possible that he and Jamis Winston get one more chance.

Wonder how much eating Mourhino's shiny new contract at Man U will affect the Glazers' thinking on this. On merit, Keotter should be a goner.

Wilkes in Arizona certainly hasn't shown anything, and Todd Bowles with the Jets hasn't either.

I think Wilkes should get another year (the GM situation + offense he inherited wasn't all that great), but it sounds like he's a goner.
The Jets' haven't quit on Bowles at all, but the W-L condemns him to a pink slip.

Marvin Lewis is yet again a possibility.

I think at this point he's officially undead.

Adam Gace in Miami...does a miracle win over the Patriots count enough to keep him? And here again, does firing him mean giving up on Tannehill?

Giving up on Tannehill is probably on the FO's mind anyway. And getting fired would probably be best for Gase himself, as the Dolphins are pretty much an undead organization...

Jay Gruden doesn't deserve to get fired for finishing the season with a fourth quarterback and a bunch of strangers coming together to play on the line...but ownership in Washington is notoriously short tempered and short sighted, so maybe.

Definitely the most unpredictable.

Doug Marrone could be fired in J'ville. High expectations and a really bad season can make a short leash.

Whoever decided it was a good idea to extend Bortles should have been fired on the spot. Owership has been patient with coaches in the past, so I think he gets another year unless Coughlin is itching to be on the sideline again.

The collapse of the Panthers could put an end to Ron Rivera.

Unless it is decided that Cam's shoulder was really to blame.

Another epic playoff collapse could turn things around for Jason Garrett

Jason is a willing doormat for Jerry, so I think winning the division will be enough; i.e. any hint of success will do. I know the bobbleheads are saying he has to at least win a playoff game, but we'll see.

If the Nevermores lose to the Browns, Harbaugh might lose his stay of execution.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If the Nevermores lose to the Browns, Harbaugh might lose his stay of execution.

The most I can see would be that they stop working his extension and let him finish out his last year next season. Baltimore is too stable an organization to go from announcing "we're working on an extension" to "you're fired" that fast.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Yep, not trying against a hated rival has to be the final nail in the coffin.

Apparently the Packers players understand this...and really wanted to make sure that Joe Philbin understands that his interim has run out. Getting blown out at home by the Lions is more a flaming stake through the heart than a nail in a coffin.

 

[Serutan]

Current body count : McCarthy, Jackson, Koetter, Bowles, Wilks, Joseph, Gase, and Lewis.

 

[Serutan]

Apparently the Packers players understand this...and really wanted to make sure that Joe Philbin understands that his interim has run out. Getting blown out at home by the Lions is more a flaming stake through the heart than a nail in a coffin.

You forgot the garlic in the mouth and the silver bullet in the brain.

 

[Serutan]

According to CBS, Williams is going to get a real shot (i.e. will be interviewed) at the permanent job in Cleveland.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

According to CBS, Williams is going to get a real shot (i.e. will be interviewed) at the permanent job in Cleveland.

I'm guessing that either he gets the job or they hire some potential "next offensive boy wonder" type and stipulate that he keeps Williams as DC/AHC. I think it's no coincidence that the most successful OBW, Sean McVay, has a DC that was (and still is) widely viewed as more qualified than he is.

Current body count : McCarthy, Jackson, Koetter, Bowles, Wilks, Joseph, Gase, and Lewis.

Well, that didn't take long. I apparently set the O/U too low. Or maybe the "fire immediately or don't fire at all" theory is in vogue.

 

[caketastydelish]

If the Cardinals are smart enough at the draft to not overthink it and just get the best player on the board (Nick Bosa) that will take their already loaded defensive line into a new category.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I expect to see some big trade downs in this draft.

 

[caketastydelish]

Do you really think the Cards should trade down when they can get a player who is almost guaranteed to make a big impact on day 1?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Do you really think the Cards should trade down when they can get a player who is almost guaranteed to make a big impact on day 1?

Given that they have a strong pass rusher on the roster and a young quarterback that might be the franchise if only they had an offensive line, and that the only guy he has to throw the ball to is older than dirt...yeah, I think they should be open to making a deal. They need a whole lot more than one guy making an impact in what is pretty clearly the strongest area they have already. They could pick somewhere between six and nine and still be able to choose between the best wide receiver in the draft and the best offensive lineman...and those guys aren't going to be on the board because they are slouches, it's just that everyone with a top five pick will either have drafted out of need and taken someone else or they will have drafted Bosa even though they don't really need D-front help just because he's the best player overall. So if they can go down five to eight picks and gain a couple strong extra picks I think they should take the deal.

Thing is that this draft is really murky so it might be hard to get a partner willing to make that deal. Someone thinking they want Bosa that bad is going to look at the other seriously top notch D-front talent and wonder if they can just stay where they are and get not Bosa but still a guy that will work for them. Four of the top five players in the draft on most boards are D front, and it seems likely that one of them will still be around for the tenth pick, at worst. Maybe twelve to fifteen.

Usually you can find someone so desperate for a quarterback that they will pay for the number one pick, but there really isn't a number one pick caliber guy in this draft. However, there is a logjam of teams that need a quarterback lurking just out of the top five picks, and only three guys on the board that are any kind of first round talent. So a team that is picking after the likely run on quarterbacks between picks five and ten might be thinking they are ass out if they can't jump into the top five. Might be an opportunity to exploit a team like the Redskins or Broncos there.

And then there's the floater in the quarterback draft punchbowl, in that every team that needs a quarterback is looking at the draft with "if we can't draft what we want we could take a run at Flacco" distracting their focus.

 

[Serutan]

Usually you can find someone so desperate for a quarterback that they will pay for the number one pick, but there really isn't a number one pick caliber guy in this draft. However, there is a logjam of teams that need a quarterback lurking just out of the top five picks, and only three guys on the board that are any kind of first round talent

Never forget that QBs are almost always overdrafted, and desperation has been known to override judgement. If the Cards can't trade down, they might want a go at OL despite conventional wisdom.

Be interesting to see if Fitz retires now. It strikes me as a good time.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Never forget that QBs are almost always overdrafted, and desperation has been known to override judgement. If the Cards can't trade down, they might want a go at OL despite conventional wisdom.

Be interesting to see if Fitz retires now. It strikes me as a good time.

This is the ideal circumstances for quarterbacks to get overdrafted. Jags, Giants, Bucs, and Broncos are all in 5-10 range, so none of the three guys who are even vaguely first round material make it past ten, even though at least two of them have no business whatever being in the top ten. And if any of those teams feels like they really see one of those guys as the only one they want they are going to have to trade into the top five to be sure they get him. Heck, the Broncos are probably thinking that if they don't jump into the top five they might not get any of them.

Meanwhile, you have the Cards and SF with the first two picks. They both think they have their quarterback, and they both are looking at D front as probably the strongest part of their current roster. They are both looking at whatever player they want the most and saying "he'll still be available at seven, eight, maybe ten..."

It is conceivable that even in the weakest field of quarterbacks the draft has seen in years they could still go one two.

 

[caketastydelish]

If anyone trades up so they can make sure they get Bosa I’d say Oakland is the most likely candidate. They would only have to move up 3 spots, and they have by far more draft capital than anyone else. Either way, if Bosa is still left on the board at #2 San Francisco would be insane for not picking him.

They already have a reasonably good offensive line, a franchise quarterback, and adding that kind of teeth to their d-line would make a noticeable difference.

And while Solomon Thomas hasn’t played as well as you’d like from someone drafted at #3 he has still been underrated. More specifically, while his recorded sacks have been low, he draws a LOT of offensive holding penalties by the opponents o-line as they try to contain him. Put Bosa and Thomas on the same d-line would make them have a superior d-line than that majority of the league.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If anyone trades up so they can make sure they get Bosa I’d say Oakland is the most likely candidate. They would only have to move up 3 spots, and they have by far more draft capital than anyone else. Either way, if Bosa is still left on the board at #2 San Francisco would be insane for not picking him.

They already have a reasonably good offensive line, a franchise quarterback, and adding that kind of teeth to their d-line would make a noticeable difference.

And while Solomon Thomas hasn’t played as well as you’d like from someone drafted at #3 he has still been underrated. More specifically, while his recorded sacks have been low, he draws a LOT of offensive holding penalties by the opponents o-line as they try to contain him. Put Bosa and Thomas on the same d-line would make them have a superior d-line than that majority of the league.

Put any of the top four defensive front players in the draft (who are arguably the four best players in the draft) in San Fransisco with their last three first round picks (who are all on the defensive front) and you better have a mighty good line. And one or two of those best four is very likely to still be available for the eighth pick...a steal. If the niners are going to burn their fourth consecutive first round pick on defensive front they should get a steal and some help later in the draft rather than spend the number two pick.

Oakland will likely get a top notch player for their defensive front with the fourth pick (not Bosa, but still top notch because really all the top quality in this draft is D front) and will be hoping to draw a stud wide receiver late in the round...possibly taking two swings at it and drafting two first round wide outs. They need a lot of help in the defensive backfield too, but that's easier to address in free agency than the gaping hole at the top of the wide receiver depth chart. Plus, late round gem defensive backs are more common than late round gem wide receivers.

There's also speculation that Oakland might trade down if no one else does. The Jags have some extra picks they could use to jump over the Giants, and the Raiders could very easily get the same player at seven that they'd have taken at four since two out of the three picks they'd let ahead of them are likely spent on quarterbacks anyway. That speculation is what is driving the Giants to consider their own trade up scenarios...to stay ahead of the Jags since they probably want the same player.

 

[Serutan]

Cardinals hire Kliff Kingsbury as HC. Color me pessimistic - given that he seems to be good with QBs but not with winning I could see hiring him as a QB coach but no more. But those NFL front office types are way smarter than me.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Cardinals hire Kliff Kingsbury as HC. Color me pessimistic - given that he seems to be good with QBs but not with winning I could see hiring him as a QB coach but no more. But those NFL front office types are way smarter than me.

No, I don't really think that they are.

They are all supposedly looking for the next 'brilliant young offensive mind' like Nagy or McVay, who is supposed to bring in the high powered throw happy "college style" offense...and ignoring the fact that neither McVay nor Nagy ever coached a day of college football in their lives. I mean, how do you hire a guy who's entire resume for the position consists of "fired from my last job because I'm a loser."

Look who just hired Bruce Arians? So apparently, the Suckaneers want to continue pissing the bed of mediocracy for the indefinite future.

On the other hand, I'm not really down on this move. Arians retired for health reasons after five campaigns with four of the five being pretty succesful, mostly working with a roster that was sub-par after injuries. The dude was named coach of the year twice in five seasons, and there is no reason he should be out of a job if he's healthy enough to come back.

 

[Serutan]

On the other hand, I'm not really down on this move. Arians retired for health reasons after five campaigns with four of the five being pretty succesful, mostly working with a roster that was sub-par after injuries. The dude was named coach of the year twice in five seasons, and there is no reason he should be out of a job if he's healthy enough to come back.

Therein hangs the tale. The re-introduction of the stress of coaching could make his previous health problems reappear. Hope he's not misjudging that.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Therein hangs the tale. The re-introduction of the stress of coaching could make his previous health problems reappear. Hope he's not misjudging that.

Me too. Still, if he believes that he's ready I'd be willing to take a chance on him. I'd feel better about that than most of the options out there, and would certainly be more comfortable hiring Arians than, say, Kliff Kingsbury. Of course I'd be more comfortable hiring you than Kliff Kingsbury, and for all I know you are a spider that somehow learned to type.

Edit: Current summary...

Browns fired first, and have hired Freddie Kitchens. Former college offensive coordinator with no head coaching experience. Only qualification being that he was Baker Mayfield's OC in college. This could be like the Rams uncorking after the Fischer regime built a solid roster to hand off to a young offensive genius coach, or it could be like Chip Kelly goes to the pros and gets his tail tucked between his legs for him as the boot is applied. I see no way to even guess which, so give this choice a rating of two spiders.

Packers fired next, and have hired Matt LaFleur. Offensive coordinator from the Titans doesn't seem like an overwhelming qualification, and that is his only experience calling the plays. OC for the explosive Rams might be a qualifier, but was he really that guy, or was he just carrying the clipboard for Sean McVay? His main reputation is as 'quarterback mentor' for a parade of young quarterbacks, but how does that relate to a quarterback that is more in search of a footstool than a mentor? I give this choice one spider.

The rest of the firing and hiring has come fast and furious and I am not willing to research the order. But...

Broncos hired Vic Fangio. This guys biggest success came as the inheritor DC of Mike Singletary's defense in San Fransisco, so inheriting a pretty good defense in Denver is right up his alley. My question is how Elway can spin this as progress since Fangio is also heavily shaped by his years in Chicago with John Fox, and the Broncos already had John Fox and fired him for no readily apparent reason. Maybe they are acknowledging that was a mistake? I dunno. Anyway, if it were anyone else I'd call Fangio a good solid coach in the 'stable elder' mold so I can't be too critical, but that Fox business makes this a downgrade for Denver. One spider.

Bucs hire Arians, which I already addressed. This, to me, is clearly the best of the lot and I'd give it a solid four spider rating except for that nagging health concern. Three and a half spiders.

Cards hire Kliff Kingsbury. Already addressed this one as well. I rate this no spiders, since I'd rather give the job to the spider.