My competitors for 1st pick next year in no particular order:
1. Giants - You lot have pretty much said it all, so I won't add.
2. Cardinals - Murray ain't setting the world on fire next season and if he is too fond of taking off when pressured could easily suffer RG3's fate. Which is not implausible given the Cardinals didn't do much with their O-line this offseason. And let's not forget that Kingsbury didn't even get a sniff a college HC job after TT fired him, nor that he was unable to win or contend the Big 12 with Patrick Mahomes.
3. Miami - Just not good right now even if they don't overtly tank. If there's any justice in the world Rosen will be able to do enough to convince them that he's their guy (no, I'm not holding my breath).
4. Carolina - Cam's shoulder will tank them as either a) he'll have to sit out the season or b) he comes back too soon and the shoulder craps out.
5. Vikings - Can't point to anything specific, just a feeling they'll implode. My bold prediction that will be gleefully thrown back in my face in December.
The Packers and Ravens could be in the mix but I think they'll be comfortably mediocre next year.
Tough calls : Steelers could be anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5 and I have no clue which way it will go.
Lions - will they be mediocre or outright bad?
Titans - Mariota will make them or break them. Flip that coin.
Niners - Jimmy G's last chance.