2019 NFL Offseason thread

[caketastydelish]

Please don't remind us of that. IT still gets discussed almost every week of the season.
The worst thing is that management still stand by their decision despite the obvious evidence otherwise.
That pick that we traded to move up one to choose the wrong guy probably would have netted us another good DB.

Ha, I deleted the comment right after posting it because I was afraid I sounded like an ass.

Tribusky is good for the being athletic/dual threat, but he doesn't appear to be all that accurate. I will admit he wasn't as bad last year as was in his rookie season. Although the improvements seem more to do with better coaching/schemes than an actual improvement on his part (I could always be wrong of course).

FWIW according to this he actually had the 4th highest QB rating last year.

Then again, that list has Jameis Winston at number 5, making me question the validity.

But according to this, he was near the bottom of the pile. I'd reckon the truth is somewhere in-between. Stats are hard and confusing (at least for me).

But of course, the front office is going to defend the pick. Openly saying "damn it we picked the wrong guy" will cause problems of the relationship between their franchise QB and the rest of the organization, at the very least.

 

[rah]

But it speaks to their credibility with the base.
He's not awful and we know all about awful QBs in Chicago.
Nagy has a good system to help him succeed and we can only hope that Trub, performs better than average. But a far cry from what it could have been.
And who knows, maybe the system will make him look even better when he learns to master it. Just last year alone should buy Nagy some time before he gets booted.

 

[caketastydelish]

Jared Goff went from being awful (rookie season) to pretty good in his first season with McVay, and improved even more in his third season.

I’m not saying it’s safe to assume Chicago’s offense will be that good for the 2019 season, but considering what they have on the other side or the ball, it doesn’t have to be.

 

[rah]

You can't win every game 14 to 7.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You can't win every game 14 to 7.

Especially when getting to 14 often requires the defense scoring off a turnover.

I'm reminded of an old Frank Gifford story. As he was trotting onto the field at quarterback for the NY Giants one of the linebackers on their way off told him "try to hold them, would ya?"

That said, I think Trubisky shows about as much promise as any of the not quite rookie quarterbacks of the future scattered across the league. Which of them will turn into Mannings and Bradys, which of them will turn into McNabbs and Marinos, and which of them will turn out to be Cutlers remains to be seen...but the promise he will certainly fulfill is that in a year or so the Bears will have to start dumping assets so they can give him his cap busting contract so they better make hay while the sun shines.

 

[caketastydelish]

Not sure what you’re saying. He’s not getting a cap busting contract based on current performance.

This is not to say they won't give him a new contract after his rookie deal ends, but he is not getting paid "elite QB record-setting money". He has done NOTHING to deserve that.

 

[Sommerswerd]

You can't win every game 14 to 7.

Tell that to the 1992 Indianapolis Colts

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Not sure what you’re saying. He’s not getting a cap busting contract based on current performance.

This is not to say they won't give him a new contract after his rookie deal ends, but he is not getting paid "elite QB record-setting money". He has done NOTHING to deserve that.

That's true. I mean he is certainly not carrying the water like a Kirk Cousins or a Jimmy Goropollo.

Oh.

Wait.

Yeah, he actually is, since they're carrying theirs in teacups as well. But that didn't keep either of them from breaking the bank.

 

[rah]

I can definitely see them overpaying him when the time comes. To do otherwise would be admitting they made a mistake in the first place.

 

[caketastydelish]

Jimmy G was based on hype worth of only literally like 7 games worth of data. By the end of the fourth year of Tribuskys deal it will probably be over 50 games worth of data. Thus, a realistic evaluation of how much he deserves.

Kirk Cousins: I strongly feel he was blamed too much for deficiencies in the Vikings offense last year that had nothing to do with him. It should be interesting to see what he can do now since he has an o-line that is better than awful.

 

[rah]

When you have the receivers that he does and Cook to run the ball, when it doesn't work, there aren't a lot of other places to put the blame. Lot's of really talented QBs have been successful with less than average O-lines.

 

[caketastydelish]

I still think he will redeem himself this season.

Even last year, PFF rated him slightly better than average.

ESPN QB ratings also has him as the 14th best QB.

He performed as a slightly above average starting QB with a horrible o-line. With their o-line improved (and another year to learn their offensive system), I anticipate him being a top 10 QB. I personally view him as the best QB in their division outside of the obvious Aaron Rodgers. Tribusky has a higher upside because of how quick/athletic he is, but that remains to be seen.

Edit: forgot to mention Kubiak will joining their offensive coaching staff. I think that is no trivial matter.

 

[rah]

I agree the extra year will help him, just saying that he has to shoulder some of the blame for last year.

 

[caketastydelish]

Considering my opinion is there are so many good defensive lines, it's hard to name what would be the top 5. I will try to name 5 but no promises.

The only one I can say for certain off the top of my head is the Jaguars. Not because their defense is, overall, on paper any better than last season (they've gained some and lost some), but because their defense will "improve" because of their offense keeping their defense off the field.

Even if Nick Foles isn't what they were hoping for, that isn't really a requirement for him to be much better at the quarterback position than what they had a season ago. They also added Jawaan Taylor (considered a steal and where they drafted him and one of the best offensive tackles in the draft), meaning the 2017 version of Fournette is likely coming back. Their d-line has a strong rotation to begin with, but I'm sure they will make life miserable for opposing QBs for the 100% duration of each game.

I'm going to try to finish this now. But there's a strong possibility I might cheat on this one too, and end up having more than 5.

2) The 49ers. For the purpose of this I said only the defensive line, not the defense as a whole.
Everything behind the 49ers defense line could be considered mediocre at best, but their defensive line, when the starters are healthy, is arguably the best in the NFL. The only difficult part is "when healthy". Dee Ford and Nick Bosa already don't have great reputations for staying healthy. Adding them to this list assumes they won't be injured for all or most of the season.

3) Cowboys. Their defensive line is stacked, their linebackers are stacked, their secondary is meh, but you can't have everything. But again, this is only about d-lines anyway. They have good starters and a strong rotation to last all 4 quarters.

4) Bears. I wanted to get cute and creative with this, but there's no denying the obvious. Aaron Donald is better than Khalil Mack but the difference is Mack has a lot of legitimate help outside of himself on the line.

5) Steelers. It was already a thoroughly solid unit, but Devin Bush gives them one of the best front 7's in all of football. The Steelers tied Kansas city last year for having the most sacks. Steelers offense was above average (as usual) but not unbelievable. What Kansas City did last year almost certainly won't be replicated two years in a row, and I don't think any team will in the immediate future. As there will be no one else with this many sack opportunities because of their offense, I am sure the Steelers will easily have the most sacks in 2019.

6) Bills. They already had the best pass defense in the NFL last year, so their pass rush is already fine. But they were ranked 16, middle of the pack, with run defense. Then they drafted Ed Oliver. People have compared him to Aaron Donald, but he doesn't have even be that to take this D-line to another level.

7) Panthers. They'll have far and away the best defensive line in their division. They will have absolutely no problem whatsoever getting to the enemy QB, even for all 4 quarters of the game.

8) Packers. Even if Rashan Gary isn't what they were hoping for, this is a thoroughly solid unit. But if he is, they will be contenders to have the best d-line period.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I still think he will redeem himself this season.

Even last year, PFF rated him slightly better than average.

ESPN QB ratings also has him as the 14th best QB.

He performed as a slightly above average starting QB with a horrible o-line. With their o-line improved (and another year to learn their offensive system), I anticipate him being a top 10 QB. I personally view him as the best QB in their division outside of the obvious Aaron Rodgers. Tribusky has a higher upside because of how quick/athletic he is, but that remains to be seen.

Edit: forgot to mention Kubiak will joining their offensive coaching staff. I think that is no trivial matter.

To make the money he makes, he technically has to play on a team with weaknesses. Minnesota improved the O-line, which probably still won't be great, and it cost them their most reliable play-maker because they couldn't pay him and have to rely on a high draft pick but untested tight end instead. With their cap caved in by Cousin's contract that's just the way it is. That money has to be attached to a "team elevator," not just a "solid quarterback."

And even those stats that show him to be a solid quarterback and actually better than solid...there's a fly in that ointment. People who really do analysis seem pretty convinced that he is a stat padder. Not intentionally or anything, it's just that there are those quarterbacks who have really great games, pretty regularly, that boost their per game stats. Unfortunately people who really track it can make some observations like "his completion percentage when he is up by ten is far above his overall, and when he is down by three it is way below his overall." When the team needs him most is when he will do the least is the knock on him, and careful analysis of his stats seem to support it...though that is hearsay as such careful analysis is above my paygrade.

 

[caketastydelish]

Random tidbit I thought of.that I felt like sharing, about the Redskins.

They were a solid, playoff team last year until the only QBs left on the depth chart were horrible. Case Keenum is already better than horrible, but obviously more important than that is the talent/potential/upside in their first pick of the draft, Dwayne Haskins. They’ve also added a considerable talent to an already solid roster and if they can finally not get struck by the injury bug so hard they’ll obviously be even better.

I think they’re getting overlooked because of people anticipating Dallas and Philadelphia being strong teams. I would tend to agree, and I think the only team in their division who won’t be strong is the Giants.

 

[caketastydelish]

To make the money he makes, he technically has to play on a team with weaknesses. Minnesota improved the O-line, which probably still won't be great, and it cost them their most reliable play-maker because they couldn't pay him and have to rely on a high draft pick but untested tight end instead. With their cap caved in by Cousin's contract that's just the way it is. That money has to be attached to a "team elevator," not just a "solid quarterback."

And even those stats that show him to be a solid quarterback and actually better than solid...there's a fly in that ointment. People who really do analysis seem pretty convinced that he is a stat padder. Not intentionally or anything, it's just that there are those quarterbacks who have really great games, pretty regularly, that boost their per game stats. Unfortunately people who really track it can make some observations like "his completion percentage when he is up by ten is far above his overall, and when he is down by three it is way below his overall." When the team needs him most is when he will do the least is the knock on him, and careful analysis of his stats seem to support it...though that is hearsay as such careful analysis is above my paygrade.

If he is rated as a top 10 QB for the 2019 season would your opinion of him change?

 

[Serutan]

When the team needs him most is when he will do the least is the knock on him, and careful analysis of his stats seem to support it...though that is hearsay as such careful analysis is above my paygrade.

That's pretty much Football Outsiders' position on Cousins. I'm willing to take their word on it as their track record is pretty good. And they crowned Blake Bortles as the GOAT of garbage time.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If he is rated as a top 10 QB for the 2019 season would your opinion of him change?

Depends. If the same case can be made against him; that he shines when it doesn't matter and that is what is pushing his top ten rating, then no, my opinion will remain unchanged. But my point isn't that he is a "bad quarterback." My point is that he does not have the requisite greatness to overcome the handicaps the roster will have to give him due to his salary. That greatness v salary balance is a far more challenging assessment than "is he a good quarterback?"

 

[caketastydelish]

There are 32 starting QBs in the NFL, so any QB that performs in the top 10 is worthy of big time money. "Perform well sometimes but not always" yeah whatever, but I want to look at the big picture. If he performs in the top 10 this coming season (to be fair it hasn't happened yet, but this is hypothetical), then he's an above-average QB, any way you cut it.

PFF ranks him at #15 amongst QBs in the NFL last year. But he was the sixth highest-paid QB. He will no longer be the 6th highest QB in the upcoming season because of other QBs getting record-setting contracts. He will most likely perform better than last year, and in that case, the long term investment will begin to pay off

He had a very good passer rating last year while under pressure (83.1), and his pass rating from a clean pocket was a whopping 108.5

He will have another year in the system, have the offensive help of Gary Kubiak now, and will have an improved offensive line. I would be very surprised if he doesn't crack the top 10. And if he does, he will be worth the investment they made to get him.

His contract will get even "cheaper" by the 2020 season, and if he turns out to be a top 10 QB playing for far less than top 10 money, that could more or less give them a "Super Bowl Window", at least as far as salary cap is concerned for the 2020 season. Hell, even this season is looking pretty good. It's just tough because the Bears are also very good and the Packers I anticipate will also be much better.