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2019 NFL Offseason thread

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Timsup2nothin, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    The thing is, overpaying is baked into QB contracts these days regardless of the willingness (or lack thereof) to admit mistakes.
     
  2. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    Well yeah there is that too. And hopefully if it was a mistake, they won't be around to correct it. ;)
     
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  3. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    A random tidbit that I completed today that I wanted to share:

    The Giants front office took a lot of heat from drafting Daniel Jones at #6 overall when they "could have taken Josh Allen and take Daniel Jones at 17."

    The Giants FO said they were "sure" that at least two other teams would have taken Jones.

    While I'm not entirely sure they were telling the truth, there is a reasonable possibility that a team might have.

    Possible teams:

    Bucs, Bengals, Dolphins, Redskins. Just my opinion of course.

    Either way: Daniel Jones doesn't necessarily have to be an "elite QB" to be worthy of the sixth overall selection.

    If he is "the guy", as in, their franchise QB for the next 15 years or so, then that means they don't have to keep blowing first-round draft picks on QBs.

    Compare that to the Browns who passed on Mahomes, Watson, Wentz, etc.

    The Giants are probably thinking in the long term, and in that case, I absolutely agree with the decision.

    The ONLY time where I think "overreaching" to get the guy you want is 100% justified is if he's the QB you want when you don't have one.
     
  4. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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  5. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    There was a better QB than Jones on the board when the Bucs, Bengals, and Dolphins made their picks. They didn't take him. It seems pretty unlikely that they would have taken Jones. The Redskins DID take a better QB than Jones when their pick finally came up. They weren't going to take Jones. The Giants front office is lying out their butts trying to fade the heat from an outright terrible draft decision.

    It isn't a question of whether he is "worthy" of a number six pick. The issue is that they could have had Josh Allen along with him and instead they have Dexter Lawrence. Now, Dexter Lawrence is no slouch, but on paper he is nowhere near the prospect that Josh Allen is. Maybe five years from now Dexter Lawrence looks like he's on the road to the hall of fame and Josh Allen has turned out to be a bust, but without that this will ALWAYS be a bad pick, no matter whether Jones turns into the franchise quarterback or not.
     
  6. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    "Better" is relative. They knew/thought that Jones was the best choice for their system, and they wanted to make sure they'd get him. It's possible (unlikely, but possible) that some of those other teams may have had the same opinion, that Jones was their prospect.

    Overall the decision might have been bad, but if Jones is the long term solution then it wasn't "terrible". If you are 100% sure that you want this guy to be the face of the franchise for the indefinite future, you don't take any chances.

    edit: Also worth noting that hindsight is 20/20. At the time they didn't even want to risk it at all, it's hard to blame them.

    edit 2: In any event, I don't think it was nearly as bad as what the Raiders did with the fourth overall pick. A pass rusher isn't going to be "the face of the franchise for the indefinite future" unless he's a J.J. Watt type of pass rusher.

    Which is not to say they shouldn't have taken a pass rusher at 4th overall. But there better ones on the board, with Josh Allen obviously being a prime example. That's why I can forgive a team for overreaching to take a QB to make sure they get their guy compared to other positions, such as what the Raiders did. Do you really think that Clenin Ferrell will be the cornerstone of their defense? But the main point, though, is that there were much better DEs on the board. And this was a team that needed defensive help just about everywhere.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    that said: I must confess I might be a little might biased here. Not a Jags fun but it will be fun to watch the Jags defensive line function as a whole if Josh Allen is the prospect he's projected to be. And if Nick Foles is what they expect him to be, that's a Super Bowl-caliber team.

    Their QB play last year was atrocious, though, so Nick Foles doesn't have to play particularly well to be an upgrade.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2019
  7. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    "The Raiders did worse" is a pretty low bar for measuring the Giants draft.
     
  8. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    I thought their other two first-round selections were decent though lol.
     
  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    I agree. And my only complaint about the Clenin Ferrell pick is the same complaint I have against the Giants. If the Raiders were that sold on him they could have had him with the tenth pick (or so), almost certainly...and picked up some extras to go with him.
     
  10. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    I'm sure they wanted to trade down, but couldn't find a partner. But they should have a better plan B than "take him anyway".

    If Ferrell becomes the Khalil Mack or whatever then Gruden will have the last laugh. Or he doesn't have to be that good - if he ends being a better pass rusher than everyone drafted after him, then the pick wasn't bad. From what we know now, it was a bad pick.

    Their pass rush is non-existant so the guy won't have to be particularly good to make an impact. Not enough of an impact to make their pass rush as a whole good of course, but enough to make a tangible difference compared to last year.

    As of right now, the Jaguars (and possibly other teams) walked with a better player at the same position drafted later on, but we won't really know until the season starts.

    Gruden overall has a decent track record. Last year obviously not, but in fairness, the team was completely devoid of talent. Personally, I'm skeptical as you are that they got the right guy, but you never know.
     
  11. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    I think it could be argued there were two. The second going in the second round to the Broncos. Which only reinforces your argument.
     
  12. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    You can argue that both the Redskins and Broncos would have rather had Jones. Unlikely, but plausible. Or that other teams wanted Jones but didn't take a QB at all after he wasn't available. Obviously unlikely, but theoretically possible.

    But moreover, as I said, hindsight is 20/20. Now it seems very unlikely that any other team would have selected Jones, but they didn't at the time. They didn't know who other teams would pick between 7-16, so they wanted to make sure they got their guy who they think will lead the franchise for over a decade or more.

    In the long run, at the QB position only, this is how you draft. I'm generally in favor of "get the best player available or trade down" but when you don't have a QB and you think there's any remote chance someone else will take him before your next pick, you take him. Obviously, if Daniel Jones is crap then the Front Office should be fired but if he ends up being 'their guy' AKA a viable long term solution, then no.

    Realize that the Giants as an organization have far more long term stability at the quarterback position than a lot of other teams.

    During the entirety of Eli Manning's career, how many different QBs have the Cowboys had? Eagles? Redskins? At the very worst: The Browns. Rolling the dice instead of being 100% sure you get the guy you want (just at the QB position) is, in the long run, is a sure way to have a culture of losing. Yes, the Eagles ended up winning a Super Bowl recently but guess what... that's after they did find their guy to lead the franchise in the long term, and were just lucky to have a more than capable backup.

    It's a pass-happy, QB league and if you can't find a QB who is good (or at least is good in the system you operate your particular offense in), you are not contenders regardless of anything else.

    edit: You can bring up the fact that the Broncos didn't get a QB until much later, but I have two different arguments for that:

    1) The Broncos have had no stability at the QB position whatsoever ever since Peyton Manning left, so they aren't a role model regardless and

    2) I'm pretty sure the Broncos didn't particularly want a quarterback this draft in the first place. They just saw sheer trade value when Lock was still available there, and since they will need a QB eventually (Flacco is 34), it was too enticing to pass up.

    There's no question whatsoever that the Broncos got better value, but both teams valued different things.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2019
  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Actually, at draft time there was the usual deluge of ratings, rankings, and information. At that time Jones was generally expected to be the FIFTH quarterback off the board. That isn't hindsight.
     
  14. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    Teams reach for QBs more than any other position for the reasons I listed. Other teams may have decided that Daniel Jones was the best QB for their particular system. Obviously, I'm not sure of it (and even kind of doubt it), but I can't blame them for not taking any chances.

    The ONLY way I would blame them, is if Daniel Jones does not end up being the long term solution.

    edit: let me drive the point home about "system quarterback"

    Tom Brady's style of play wouldn't be appropriate in the Seattle offensive playbook, and vice versa.

    Jared Goff was awful with Jeff Fischers system but not with McVay's.

    There was something *specific* about Daniel Jones that made them sure he was by far the most appropriate for the type of offense they want to run. I won't pretend for a second that I know more than the countless paid professionals/experts that an organization with an endless supply of money has at their disposal.

    Why do you think KK was so determined to get Murray when they already had a first-round QB from the previous year? Because he has his own offense, his own set of ideas, and he wants the QB who he feels most comfortable can run his particular system as he likes.

    There is particular about Daniel Jones (I don't know what it is and neither do you, but obviously they have their reasons) and they were concerned that other teams that also had systems compatible with Daniel Jones' skillset which might have taken him.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
  15. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    While it's impossible to judge any draft for at least a few years, looking at it today, The DJ pick was a panic pick.
    Just like the Bears Trubisky pick.
     
  16. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    At least the Giants didn’t sacrifice by trading up lol.
     
  17. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    Now there's a point that I need to share with my Giant fan friend.
     
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  18. rah

    rah Warlord Supporter

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    That doesn't make it smart, just less stupid. :lol:
     
  19. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Another drone in the hive mind

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    I've actually had to stop ribbing him about the Giants since the draft. He used to banter back, but now he just gets sad.
     
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  20. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish 49ers 2019

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    The Giants have the chance to beat the Patriots (like they usually do) this season. Not saying they will, but if they do, that should cheer him up. It would even cheer me up, and I'm not a Giants fan.

    Part of the Giants problem, to be fair, is that I am of the opinion that all other 3 teams in their division are well above average and legit playoff competitors.

    Their schedule, in general, looks pretty tough. You can say they have easy games against non-Patriots teams in AFC East, but I would digress. The Dolphins appear to be utter garbage, but the Bills and Jets, at least on paper, are much better.

    From my own prediction (well-fractured crystal ball), Bucs, Cards, and Dolphins will be their only easy games.

    And yes, I think the Lions will be a lot better. Near the end of last season, the Lions defense improved considerably (presumably they were finally adjusting to Patricia's new scheme), but they also added even more defensive talent during the draft. Then on the other side of the ball, they got a very good tight end prospect.

    edit: I will say that I anticipate that NFC North, as a whole, will by far the best league defense compared to any other division. All 4 teams defense will be above league average.

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    But all of this means the Giants having another bad regular-season record shouldn't be entirely blamed on the front office/coach. Sometimes bad luck happens.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019

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