2019 NFL Regular Season Thread

[Serutan]

We're getting Blue Men Group/Nevermores too. Presumably since we both live in the radius of NFC West teams.

 

[Serutan]

And the ending of Ewes/Thumbtacks was ... so Chargers.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

We're getting Blue Men Group/Nevermores too. Presumably since we both live in the radius of NFC West teams.

The NFC west has quietly emerged as the division where .500 nets you last place.

 

[Light Cleric]

I know they're not playing juggernauts the last 3 weeks but good lord the Saints are gonna be scary when Drew comes back

Speaking of which I'm worried that they might be bringing back Drew against the Cardinals instead of letting him rest through that and the bye, but apparently they're considering making him the backup and putting Taysom "You're gonna die on this" Hill at TE since Jared Cook is injured so that's less concerning

Also I don't know if they were just goofing with each other but lmao this gif is amazing

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I know they're not playing juggernauts the last 3 weeks but good lord the Saints are gonna be scary when Drew comes back

Speaking of which I'm worried that they might be bringing back Drew against the Cardinals instead of letting him rest through that and the bye, but apparently they're considering making him the backup and putting Taysom "You're gonna die on this" Hill at TE since Jared Cook is injured so that's less concerning

Also I don't know if they were just goofing with each other but lmao this gif is amazing

That's a guy that, if he is your starter, you really need to have the highest paid backup quarterback in the league.

 

[Light Cleric]

I doubt Taysom would ever be the starter, I love him to death and hope we have him around forever but he's never going to be a "normal" QB. We'd probably sign someone off the street and he'd stay as the gameday backup.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

I already awarded that title to Washington, but maybe there's cause to reconsider.

Bengals are still adding mm to their tank too. We'll see.

BTW, what does it say about the undefeated 49ers that they barely squeaked through against Washington?

Was a nice, moist game. Even some amazing offenses have laid an egg across the season. Per advanced stats the 49ers have a legit ~top 5 defense and a reasonable offense IIRC. Teams have lucked their way to SB wins with less, though I would still consider Saints and Packers as more likely NFC representatives, and about 50/50 SF vs Seattle.

2) Home field advantage is huge in Seattle to start with but today it is ridiculous, possibly because of poor performance by the Ravens' support people. Baltimore's players are sliding all over the place and they can't seem to get the surface figured out. Jackson has changed cleats after every single possession and they still haven't managed to send him out in anything that doesn't put "slipped and fell" as the Squawks leading tackler.

Teams traveling across the country struggle in general on average. Teams doing this to play in stadiums with strong home field advantage even more so.

Lockett and Metcalf, in this game anyway, are putting up decent stats, but it is only because they have forever to get open and no one can cover forever.

Lockett would be good in most offenses. Watch a few tape reviews of him on YouTube if you're curious. It's not like he's Julio Jones or something but he's a good WR.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Teams traveling across the country struggle in general on average. Teams doing this to play in stadiums with strong home field advantage even more so.

Yeah, that's always true. This was special though. I can't recall the last time I saw an NFL team have such a glaringly obvious equipment issue. The entire Ravens squad on both sides of the ball looked like they were playing on skates until about the middle of the third quarter...which coincides with when they really turned on the jets and ran away with the game. If their equipment manager had done a better job I think Seattle might have gotten really blown out.

Lockett would be good in most offenses. Watch a few tape reviews of him on YouTube if you're curious. It's not like he's Julio Jones or something but he's a good WR.

I've seen him plenty. Definitely no Julio Jones. I think he is solid number two receiver good. Seriously though, how many teams would he be the number one receiver on? Maybe a handful, all of which totally suck. His ability to get separation against the coverage a number one receiver draws seems totally dependent on Wilson buying him enough time to go into scramble mode. He very seldom gets open just running the route. Metcalf also is developing and currently low second receiver quality. But without a strong one he sees more coverage than most twos and again very seldom seems to get any separation until he runs past the pattern and starts running around playing sandlot ball, and that's due to Wilson. Dude is definitely doing more with less than any other MVP candidates, as far as I can tell.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

Yeah, that's always true. This was special though. I can't recall the last time I saw an NFL team have such a glaringly obvious equipment issue. The entire Ravens squad on both sides of the ball looked like they were playing on skates until about the middle of the third quarter...which coincides with when they really turned on the jets and ran away with the game. If their equipment manager had done a better job I think Seattle might have gotten really blown out.

True, that was worse than I've seen in quite some time. I'm reminded of that one game at Pittsburgh where the field was basically flooded and chewed up, was over a decade ago now. But in that game both teams had it really rough because fields don't usually get that bad. Not sure what was going on with Baltimore in this case.

I've seen him plenty. Definitely no Julio Jones. I think he is solid number two receiver good. Seriously though, how many teams would he be the number one receiver on?

There just aren't that many WRs like Jones, period. Not enough to have 32 #1s with him as a measuring stick.

I have Lockett as low-mid tier #1. I would expect him to at least challenge for a #1 WR spot with these teams:

Seattle, SF, Philly (probably, they kind of have 3 #2s at this point), Miami, NYG, NYJ, Detroit (probably), Baltimore, Buffalo, LARams (maybe), LARaiders (definitely), Washington, Carolina, Chicago (maybe), Denver, New England, Tennessee, Jacksonville.

Some of those teams have players that are roughly in his ballpark, others don't. Which is why I'm not sure if he's low or mid tier as a #1. It's hard to say easily because like all WRs he is at least somewhat constrained by the offense he's in.

PFF has him higher still, and they look at every play for each player when doing the grades. Locket gave a perfect passer rating when targeted in 2018, so maybe even I'm underestimating him a bit here. He's basically their only good WR though and gets a fair amount of attention as a result.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I remember that game in Pittsburgh. The league was lucky that no one broke a leg. When the game in Mexico City got moved due to bad field conditions that game was cited as a demonstration of why it had to be done.

When PFF grades a receiver I wonder how (if?) they account for variations in quarterback/offense. Like, I would say that beyond four seconds there might not be anyone better in the league than Lockett, but how many quarterbacks are going to give him more than four seconds? The results show up in completions, and certainly in yards per catch since a lot of those turn into monster plays, so how do they keep that from skewing the results?

I mean, I'm always mad at Aaron Rodgers for the way he treats his receivers; as if they should just be happily anonymous and grateful to be on the field with him, but there is a lot of the same issue at play there. Catches and yardage accumulated on what amounts to busted plays turned to gold really makes the offense, the receiver, and the quarterback show up strong on the stat sheet, but how should the credit be distributed there? If Wilson was stuck with receivers who ran their routes and then stood around looking stupid he'd be getting killed instead of tossing miraculous TDs, but if Lockett was stuck with a guy who never got him the ball unless he broke separation at the designated "sweet spot" two seconds into his route he'd have a lot poorer stats.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

When PFF grades a receiver I wonder how (if?) they account for variations in quarterback/offense. Like, I would say that beyond four seconds there might not be anyone better in the league than Lockett, but how many quarterbacks are going to give him more than four seconds? The results show up in completions, and certainly in yards per catch since a lot of those turn into monster plays, so how do they keep that from skewing the results?

Supposedly they systematically grade each player on his own merits. For example if a QB throws a pass that could be intercepted, it always counts as a "turnover-worthy" play, regardless of what the defense actually does once it has hands on it (even if defense drops it). For WRs drops, double coverage, how often they beat defender(s), even blocking is factored.

Lockett does win 1v1 a fair amount, but as I mentioned earlier Seattle is not loaded with weapons either. Their WR corps is basically him and a bunch of replacement level players. So while Wilson is one of the slowest in average time to throw, which favors Lockett, his other WRs do the opposite. That said, Will Dissly (TE) has stepped up this season for Seattle, and has good per-play efficiency himself, so Locket hasn't had it quite as hard as I expected.

But his numbers are still good. He's presently 12th in yards for 2019, has a very respectable 3.6 yards of separation on average, is 5th in the league in catch% (1st among WRs!). These are in line with his 2018 totals, where he finished 3rd in the league in catch percentage. He's kind of weak in YAC, bit below average at that. Overall while he's not a special, game-altering/generational talent his numbers are consistent with a solid #1.

~~~

Wilson's average time to throw is 2.88 so far this year, good for 5th slowest. Cousins, Minshew, Rodgers, and Mayfield are slower.

Fastest: Newton, Darnold, Dalton, Garoppolo, Carr, Trubisky, Brady. On average, Brady holds the ball for .32s less time than Wilson. Certainly, extra .32s matters over the course of many passes, but it's not like Wilson is just playing scramble ball all the time.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Just saw a Falcons game for myself for the first time this season. Suck doesn't cover it.

I went directly from coaching a Youth football game (where we won ourselves a playoff berth ) to an adjacent restaurant that had the Giants-Cards game on... My son is sitting next to me, still in his cleats and game pants watching the fiasco (I think the blocked punt/TD had just happened, following a muffed punt and countless dropped passes)... and he says laughing: "Daddy, this is like a Pee Wee game! But at least the kid in our game actually caught the punt!"

While I didn't watch that game, it is possible that they simply played not to lose/super conservative, considering who they were up against.

I watched the game. The field was a swimming pool. It's a miracle that anyone scored.

BTW, what does it say about the undefeated 49ers that they barely squeaked through against Washington?

It says they're undefeated

But that aside... I think 9-0 is a pretty dominant/impressive win for a Water Polo game.

Sometimes they even get gigantic franchise busting contracts for no apparent reason. The defense is carrying the day, but the headline is "20 million a year wild goose chase pays off, Garoppolo continues to lay eggs."

I'm with you... I'm still not a believer in Garoppolo. I think what we're witnessing with these wins with him, is correlation rather than causation.

 

[caketastydelish]

How can you not be a believer in Jimmy G? He puts up good numbers, has an incredibly fast release time, just wins games, quarterback of the 49ers, and is of Italian ancestry.

Joe Montana 2.0 here we come!

 

[rah]

As mediocre as Jimmy has been, Bears fans would kill for that type of mediocrity.

 

[Sommerswerd]

As mediocre as Jimmy has been, Bears fans would kill for that type of mediocrity.

You don't have to kill... you just have to pay

 

[Timsup2nothin]

You don't have to kill... you just have to pay

The Bears entire roster is built around their quarterback's rookie contract, so they can't pay Jimmy G money, to anyone. And (@rah) while he is obviously no Patrick Mahomes and likely never will be, the Bears could get a lot less for the rookie contract money they have to spend than they are getting from Trub.

 

[caketastydelish]

What exactly do you mean by that? You mean a player who is much worse?

 

[caketastydelish]

Random question: Why do (some) people think Redskins is racist/offensive but Chiefs isn't?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What exactly do you mean by that? You mean a player who is much worse?

Yeah. By definition, if you have a quarterback on a rookie contract he has less than significant NFL experience and more often than not he is gonna suck. Suck way worse than Trub, that is.

Random question: Why do (some) people think Redskins is racist/offensive but Chiefs isn't?

Because "redskins" was actually used as an epithet/racial slur, "chiefs" never was, AFAIK.

 

[Serutan]

The Bears entire roster is built around their quarterback's rookie contract, so they can't pay Jimmy G money, to anyone. And (@rah) while he is obviously no Patrick Mahomes and likely never will be, the Bears could get a lot less for the rookie contract money they have to spend than they are getting from Trub.

The problem is this (3rd) is the year you would think Trubisky would start to make strides. From what I've seen that's not the case. I agree he's hardly the biggest bust to come down the pike, but he is starting to look like a bust.