1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

2019 NFL Regular Season Thread

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Timsup2nothin, Sep 2, 2019.

  1. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    9,273
    Location:
    Chicago
    It's still a small sample size for his "good games" but at least it's encouraging. The best thing being he wasn't shy when he was running.
    Hopefully these few good games will build his confidence and lead to more consistent play.
    I would really like to not start over at QB again.

    And yeah, spending a night watching the Cowboys get pounded is always a good night.
     
  2. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    16,430
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    Ugh... I thought the Cowboys were a lock facing a team with a losing record. They've been pretty reliable this season to win against teams under .500 and lose against anyone over .500, with the Jets being the only exception IIRC.

    I guess the Cowboys are even worse than I originally thought.
    The Ravens were looking at him at one point for this very reason... but then his girlfriend opened her big fat mouth and effed that all up.
     
  3. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2008
    Messages:
    25,238
    It's pretty bizarre that people get penalized for crap their dad/girlfriend/other people than them say. It's bad enough that people have a hair trigger for any misstep, but punishing them for stuff other people do is even more China-esque.

    I mean, what does that standard imply, that Kaepernick needs to control what his girlfriend says so he doesn't get screwed over and otherwise dump her (itself a threat/form of control otherwise not present)? That other guy should have "picked a different father"? Doesn't that go against the usual narrative regarding expectations for women & equality?

    I'm all for personal responsibility, but that has to be for the person doing the thing. Kaep did himself no favors by moving venue like that, but this + his team fit should be the real concerns signing him, not something someone else says. Same for that Dolphins CB's wife calling out the QB a few years back. That doesn't reflect well on her but it shouldn't really be penalizing the player (or her, unless she's with the team).
     
  4. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    9,273
    Location:
    Chicago
    I think for Kaep, they're just looking for an excuse.
     
    Sommerswerd likes this.
  5. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    16,430
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    It's not bizarre at all. Unfair maybe, but certainly not strange, unusual or unexpected. It's perfectly normal for people to benefit and/or suffer because of the reputation/actions/statements of their family, friends and significant others. Guilt by association is a thing, I'm sure you'd agree.
    I'd say that's exactly what it means. Again, we can argue the "fairness", but the implication is crystal clear.
    Yeah, that too.
     
  6. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2008
    Messages:
    25,238
    I agree that people assert guilt by association, in the sense that it's an effect I can consistently observe. It bothers me and it's still bizarre to my own world view. It also carries dark implications and the crushing majority of people delving in guilt by association are massive hypocrites that wouldn't hesitate for a moment to complain if it turned out their family member or longtime friend committed some heinous crime that penalized them as a result.

    It's the kind of thing that strikes me as something that SHOULD be unusual and unexpected, because even people engaging in it violate their own standard for it. I suppose there are exceptions, people who act like modern-day inquisitors and would oust a family member at the drop of a hat over some stuff. If THAT were anything but unusual I'd be legit surprised though.

    The problem with this standard is that it implies that his girlfriend shouldn't have autonomy. That she's more like a child under Kaep's guardian status than an adult that can think for herself. I don't like this implication, and it bothers me a little extra when people who would otherwise claim they're pro women's rights or even feminists say crap like this. But hey, lying is par for the course for quite a few people in this business, for differing reasons. I'm not going to lose sleep over it. I just don't like it :p.

    Sure, but they already have several more plausible excuses (veteran minimum, likes players they have, scheme fit, moved venue, etc). Even if one looks at advanced analytics and wants to claim some of those excuses are bogus, they're still more plausible. And it's not like coaches/teams don't do idiotic things against metrics to their detriment more generally lol. Lots of teams still don't go for it on 4th down even half as frequently as they should for example...though the league is at least trending towards competency there, slowly.
     
    caketastydelish likes this.
  7. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    Agreed on all except the last bit, as it’s situational. If your offense is not particularly good, but you’ve a great punter and a solid defense. generally speaking you want to punt on fourth down.
     
  8. TheMeInTeam

    TheMeInTeam Top Logic

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2008
    Messages:
    25,238
    This has actually been analyzed to death and no competent assessment of the data concludes that punting on 4th is short is generally favorable. The times where you should punt in that situation, even with a lead, are the exceptions!

    On average, teams that go for it in these scenarios not only score more points on average, their opponents score less on average. Across a full season it amounts to ~one extra win just correctly making 4th down calls alone, compared to typical decision processes used 5-10 years ago (gap is narrowing now as more teams are going for it frequently...some close to 2x per game on average).

    The exceptions are relatively obvious; you're up by multiple scores with not a lot of time left; kicking a FG puts you up by more than 8 points, it's 4th and long (conversion chance plummets, and with it expected value of the attempt).

    Teams that punt it on 4th and short while trailing in the second half are basically trash. But even teams that are WINNING shouldn't punt it in that situation in most cases! This is not a subtle difference! Claiming they shouldn't is like claiming a randomly chosen QB with 20 TD 20 INT is likely better than a random QB with 35 TD and 15 INT, on average. It's silly.

    To change the analytics based on quality of offense vs defense you'd need something of an extreme outlier, like the 2000 Ravens. That team was so bad on offense compared to defense it was ridiculous. But even 2019 Bills don't have enough differential for this evaluation to change much.
     
  9. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    Idk... winning turnovers is critical to winning games (a big part of why Pete Carroll has been successful in Seattle is he emphasizes this), and punting on fourth down guarantees that you won’t get a turnover.
     
  10. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Veteran of 1000 psycic wars

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    37,681
    Location:
    Where the winds of limbo roar
    And statistically they didn't have a bad offensive game against Chicago. A great opening drive and a bunch of yardage in garbage time can fill a stat sheet reasonably well. Add in grotesque padding from a bunch of games against outright terrible teams and statistically you have a great season going. And yet the Cowboys still suck.
     
    rah likes this.
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Veteran of 1000 psycic wars

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    37,681
    Location:
    Where the winds of limbo roar
    I think the Ravens have just as good if not better backup as far as the skills and scheme fit go already, and that maybe now they are at a point where Kaepernick couldn't cause a controversy, but earlier in the season he certainly would have. That guy has "there is just no excuse good enough for not starting him" written all over him.
     
  12. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    Yeah, Kaepernick is all but guaranteed to not remotely cause starting QB controversy in the following places I can name off the top of my head:

    1) Seattle
    2) Baltimore
    3) Kansas City
    4) Houston
     
  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Veteran of 1000 psycic wars

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    37,681
    Location:
    Where the winds of limbo roar
    I agree that he shouldn't, less so that he wouldn't. There are people out there right now saying "he should be on a team" who have never watched an NFL game. Those same people can be counted on to start immediately questioning why he isn't starting no matter who the starter is.

    And as I said, Baltimore is better off with RG3 anyway. Houston, I'll grant, is another possibility.
     
  14. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    In other random news:

    I made a reddit thread in r/Seahawks where I asked fellow fans what they want us to do with our first round pick in 2020. Here are by far the most common responses

    1) WR (as it's a deep wide receiver class and there will still be really talented players worth taking near the end of the first round, where we are all but guaranteed to be drafting from)
    2) offensive lineman (greatest offensive weakness)
    3) defensive line (lack of depth, especially for a solid rotation).

    Frankly the 3rd option is absolutely my favorite, unless the value absolutely isn't there. Someone suggested trading our first rounder to the Jags for Yannick Ngakoue, which is something I didn't even consider. If this is possible (while we retain all of our other important players, not the least of which is Clowney) I would do this in a heartbeat.
     
  15. Light Cleric

    Light Cleric ElCee/LC/El Cid

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    3,174
    The issue with Houston is that bizarre post he made about the Houston floods like what the hell even was that

    I'm not saying it should held against him but it would definitely be brought up and used hardcore by people against signing him
     
  16. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    The majority of Nike shareholders should combine their forces/assets to purchase an NFL team. Then, they can finally guarantee that Kaepernick will be a starter.
     
  17. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    16,430
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    They don't have enough money left... they're spending it all on the University of Oregon's football uniforms.
     
    rah likes this.
  18. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    I don’t get it. :confused:
     
  19. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish By any means necessary

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    8,436
    Gender:
    Male
    I am watching 49ers vs Saints. Jesus, what a high scoring game this is going to be.
     
  20. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I never yielded

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    16,430
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    FOX NFL Sunday switched to the out-of-market game because the first one ended early... and guess what?? ITS THE 49ERS GAME!!!:D :dance: :banana:

    So at least I'll get to watch some of it... I was listening to it on Sirius which isn't nearly as fun.
     
    caketastydelish likes this.

Share This Page