2020 US Election (Part One)

[Kyriakos]

The problem is I don't see the supporters of all the petty candidates polling with a few percent or less coalescing behind one of Biden's challengers. Going through the list it seems likely that the supporters of many of the candidates will default to Biden when their guy (or gal) drops out, with the exception that I would expect a lot of the Yang Gang people to switch to Mayor Pete.

edit: there was also a good piece in the Baffler recently making the case that Marianne Williamson for all her talk of the politics of love is really just a huckster repackaging standard conservative bootstrap-moralism as New Age wisdom.

Warren voters (assuming she doesn't make the final two) will prefer Bernie to Biden, obviously. I don't really see Biden winning the overall nomination, unless there is some massive rigging - he is just a terrible candidate and the less he speaks the less votes he loses. But in the primaries he can't avoid speaking, and that will be when the reality will come out.

 

[Socrates99]

Smh if Biden wins we might as well brace for another 4 years of Dump. He's the only candidate Trump can easily counterpunch back against the racism accusations, the health issues, the handsy wit women stuff, etc. It'd be a trainwreck. Biden's already looking like a trainwreck "Joe3030..."

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Still, the Media is expecting Biden to drop out sometimes. Maybe it's just that someone starting in the lead and finishing in it is just a very bad story and doesn't keep much interest (especially with clownish Trump on the other side). So they write and hope that someone else can challenge him. I still believe and hope Biden will produce a huge gaffe sometimes or the Fall debates with fewer persons on stage will allow the #2-6 in the race to get more votes.

But really, Trump versus Biden would be a sad and boring election fight. Enough with the old white (boring) dudes.

(Sanders may be old, but he's not boring, a lot of the <1% candidates are)

This points to the really important question...where do Biden voters go and who can stay in long enough to be there when they do. If Biden does an actual "pass the torch" exit he could very well determine the nominee.

 

[Narz]

I'm genuinely kind of surprised she's doing so poorly. I thought she was Biden's biggest threat, but that appears to be Warren now. There's still time, but she just hasn't caught on at all. I'd say it's her cop baggage, but Biden has 1000000 times the baggage. Maybe it's that white dudes with baggage, like Biden, get forgiven way easier. Maybe it's that she truly doesn't have the name appeal she needs. Maybe being from California and not "real America" hurts. I don't know.

She comes off calculated, unfeeling and manipulative. If she was a judge presiding in a case where I was charged w something I'd be scared.

 

[Narz]

edit: there was also a good piece in the Baffler recently making the case that Marianne Williamson for all her talk of the politics of love is really just a huckster repackaging standard conservative bootstrap-moralism as New Age wisdom.

Lol baffler, what a joke. She is for universal healthcare

It doesn't matter she has no chance anyway

 

[Sommerswerd]

This points to the really important question...where do Biden voters go and who can stay in long enough to be there when they do. If Biden does an actual "pass the torch" exit he could very well determine the nominee.

At this point it doesn't seem like Biden would be passing any torches. In the increasingly unlikely event that someone overtakes him, I think its more probable that he stays in to the near-bitter end, similar to Hillary in 2008 and Ted Cruz in 2016.

EDIT: I've said it before and I'll say it again... bring on the boos and howls... come at me

The person to save the Democrats from this mess is Hillary... if Hillary were to enter the race, she would immediately become the presumptive nominee, and immediately galvanize and excite a groundswell of the Democratic base to defeat her, and simultaneously elevate to Rockstar status any candidate who was a plausible Hillary-alternative. The excitement on the Democratic side would become overwhelming.

 

[rah]

That's thinking outside the box.

 

[Lexicus]

Lol baffler, what a joke.

we get it, you're anti-intellectual

 

[Timsup2nothin]

At this point it doesn't seem like Biden would be passing any torches. In the increasingly unlikely event that someone overtakes him, I think its more probable that he stays in to the near-bitter end, similar to Hillary in 2008 and Ted Cruz in 2016.

I'm not thinking that anyone overtakes him. The fringe is split between Warren and Sanders, and it seems unlikely that either of them would drop out...and even if one does the combined fringe still doesn't catch Biden. But I think that a health/good of the party sidestep is a distinct possibility. And that would mean that someone who is left in the race besides the fringe favorites could be immediately vaulted to the top by a mere handshake.

 

[Narz]

we get it, you're anti-intellectual

An outlet about as professional as a high school newsletter is "intellectual" to you? That's sad. The internet is a big place, try to do better.

 

[Lexicus]

An outlet about as professional as a high school newsletter

Aww, awe you mad because it said mean things about Joe Wogen?

 

[Narz]

Aww, awe you mad because it said mean things about Joe Wogen?

I'm not mad. It's just a garbage, lazy and attention seeking outlet and I'm confused why you're being such a reactive lil fanboy about it.

 

[Lexicus]

I'm not mad. It's just a garbage, lazy and attention seeking outlet and I'm confused why you're being [why you're being such a reactive lil fanboy about it.

Can I assume your judgment is based on that one article criticizing Tulsi and nothing else?
Btw "reactive lil fanboy", nice one

 

[Zardnaar]

If Biden drops out I would expect his voters to go to Harris or if any of the minor centrist ones are surviving maybe them.

While Bidens still in Tulsi, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper etc are going to be overshadowed

 

[Narz]

Can I assume your judgment is based on that one article criticizing Tulsi and nothing else?

Why would I need to read another if they're willing to post such garbage under their banner?

 

[caketastydelish]

If Biden gets the nomination then I am almost completely sure that he will lose to Trump.

 

[Kyriakos]

The person to save the Democrats from this mess is Hillary... if Hillary were to enter the race, she would immediately become the presumptive nominee, and immediately galvanize and excite a groundswell of the Democratic base to defeat her, and simultaneously elevate to Rockstar status any candidate who was a plausible Hillary-alternative. The excitement on the Democratic side would become overwhelming.

Wot?! Hillary dead, bro

I'm not thinking that anyone overtakes him. The fringe is split between Warren and Sanders, and it seems unlikely that either of them would drop out...and even if one does the combined fringe still doesn't catch Biden. But I think that a health/good of the party sidestep is a distinct possibility. And that would mean that someone who is left in the race besides the fringe favorites could be immediately vaulted to the top by a mere handshake.

Interesting definition of "fringe". It's not like Bernie and Warren make up 20% of the vote. Bernie sort of split the vote with Hellary last time.

 

[Ajidica]

If Biden does drop out due for a 'health of the party' reason*, I suspect he would endorse Warren. None of the Third Way Democrats are polling all that well to comprise a clear successor, and even the love for the Bootyjudge seems to be fading as people start gravitating to either Sanders or Warren. Sanders is too old and cranky and too "socialist" for Biden to endorse, but Warren has the institutional cred to become a party leader rather than "Old Man Yells at Clouds".

*I can see him doing that if he is winning a plurality of delegates, but not a majority. Biden is old enough to have a very good idea of what happened last time there was fight like that and how it trashed Carter's chances at winning reelection.

 

[Takhisis]

I'm getting more optimistic. Perhaps the next recession can't be delayed until after the elections. And a candidate with a genuine new policy will be appreciated.

tl;dr you can sacrifice people as if it were a game of civ as long as whatever nebulous ‘new policy’ can be enforced in the Amerika oblast.

Didn't a few Greeks go and help out the Serbs and go into battle with the Byzantine flag?

Oh yes, there were a few fellow Christian Orthodox battallions, just as there were a few Muslims (they weren't terrorists back then) and, of course, a few Western-trained neo-Ustaše around the place.

And people lending money to all the factions resulting in (as of a few years ago) any former Yugoslav republic having more debt than the entire pre-war Yugoslavia IIRC, but let's blame others instead of the war profiteers.

 

[innonimatu]

Not Warren. Harris. With Obama pulling the strings.