2020 US Election (Part One)

[amadeus]

With Biden so low is it likely that Bernie will win all four first states?
Projections do show him winning the nomination anyway. Maybe one more appearance by Hellary will help him seal the deal faster

Word is it that Biden is refocusing on winning in SC—a state with a sizable black demographic more favorable to Biden and less to Sanders. Sanders won NH by 30 points in 2016; his slim plurality showing here doesn’t blow Biden out alone but the rise of Buttichar (Klobagieg sounds better but she’s still 2nd fiddle) is looking to severely wound him.

 

[Kyriakos]

Word is it that Biden is refocusing on winning in SC—a state with a sizable black demographic more favorable to Biden and less to Sanders. Sanders won NH by 30 points in 2016; his slim plurality showing here doesn’t blow Biden out alone but the rise of Buttichar (Klobagieg sounds better but she’s still 2nd fiddle) is looking to severely wound him.

In 2016 there were only 2 candidates in NH, not 6-7 like this time...

As for Biden...:

He must leave asap. Clearly he isn't thinking straight - that line he uttered was out of some David Lynch horror movie.
"You're a lying dog-faced pony-soldier".

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Word is it that Biden is refocusing on winning in SC—a state with a sizable black demographic more favorable to Biden and less to Sanders. Sanders won NH by 30 points in 2016; his slim plurality showing here doesn’t blow Biden out alone but the rise of Buttichar (Klobagieg sounds better but she’s still 2nd fiddle) is looking to severely wound him.

The only way it wounds him is if donors start seeing Buttigieg as a more viable candidate than Biden. Donors backing out is what really derails a campaign, and for now I'd guess the donors are seeing every Buttigieg delegate as an eventual Biden delegate.

 

[Berzerker]

Biden will be right back in it with a decent win in SC...for a while...maybe till super tuesday next month

but the moderates/centrists are getting more of the vote than the progressive wing

in good news for the Dems, turn out was much better in NH

maybe caucuses just dont attract the same numbers given they're more time consuming

 

[Rashiminos]

Bribing farmers is a long US tradition. The only question of importance is: Can she beat the Turd?

Klobuchar's biggest opponents are the other candidates in her primary and their voters.

She will have to explain how she is different from Trump, to the left.

 

[bernie14]

Scenario...what happens if/when...

Warren drops out, Biden fizzles....come democratic convention, bernie has 35-40% of the delegates, the other 60-65% distributed between Bloomberg, buttigieg and klob?

 

[Rashiminos]

Brokered, Bloom and Bernie in the second round, then Bernie unless the party wants to concede defeat in the summer.

 

[Kyriakos]

Scenario...what happens if/when...

Warren drops out, Biden fizzles....come democratic convention, bernie has 35-40% of the delegates, the other 60-65% distributed between Bloomberg, buttigieg and klob?

If they just deny Bern when he would be the clear frontrunner, they can expect the dreaded berniebros to follow party line. In effect 4 more years of Trump.

Not that the DNC would win even then - if Bernie doesn't win the presidency, AOC will be a candidate in 2024 anyway.

 

[bernie14]

Say Bloomberg has 30%, 15% each for butty and klob ( or 20-10). Do you guys think 1/2 of butty's delegates would go for Bernie? When do the superdelegates play a role?

 

[Berzerker]

Bernie wins the popular vote in Iowa and NH and he's down in delegates 23-21

 

[Kyriakos]

Say Bloomberg has 30%, 15% each for butty and klob ( or 20-10). Do you guys think 1/2 of butty's delegates would go for Bernie? When do the superdelegates play a role?

I don't think Piet will get 15% in super-Tuesday. Isn't he polling near 0% with non-"white" people?
As for Bloomberg, wasn't he a republican mayor? (?). He has 55 billion dollars and actual popular support is unlikely.

Bernie wins the popular vote in Iowa and NH and he's down in delegates 23-21

Bernie wins with 2% (?) and gets the same number of delegates as Butty. Butty wins Iowa (lol, assuming he actually won the non-popular segment) with less than 0.1% and gets two more delegates. Yeah, seems legit.

 

[bernie14]

I just don't see biden voters going majority bernie, warren voters sure, but sanders + warren + stragglers....i dont see bernie hitting >50%

 

[Rashiminos]

Biden can't really go him for the substantive reasons to go him (shilling for donors, swinging to the right and abandoning progressive stuff he said before, being a rat faced pro war spook whose sole consuming ambition is power for power's sake who will say and do anything, etc) because it undermines what Biden represents too, I guess.

Buttigieg has a host of issues between him and nomination. It's hard for me to say how strongly centrist Dems will receive the left's accusation's that he's super-racist, but he's going to have trouble with black voters for one reason or another.

Say Bloomberg has 30%, 15% each for butty and klob ( or 20-10). Do you guys think 1/2 of butty's delegates would go for Bernie? When do the superdelegates play a role?

It's nominee of the Democratic Party, not the nominee for people who vote for Democrats.

 

[Kyriakos]

Buttigieg has a host of issues between him and nomination. It's hard for me to say how strongly centrist Dems will receive the left's accusation's that he's super-racist, but he's going to have trouble with black voters for one reason or another.

This time round Bernie did form a number of important alliances with the black minority, so he will obviously do a lot better there than in 2016.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Scenario...what happens if/when...

Warren drops out, Biden fizzles....come democratic convention, bernie has 35-40% of the delegates, the other 60-65% distributed between Bloomberg, buttigieg and klob?

So, Bernie has 35-40% of the delegates, and 60-65% of the delegates are pledged to candidates that will all back each other over Bernie. That sounds like a brokered convention with someone other than Bernie winning, but the real question is just how bad Biden "fizzles," and when. If he comes out of super Tuesday leading the rest of the 'not Bernie or Warren' group, which seems like about an even money bet, then even if he does this fizzling shortly after he still hits the convention with a substantial number of delegates. In greater likelihood though, if he does come out of super Tuesday leading that pack everyone but Bloomberg* and Bern/ren will drop out and Biden won't actually "fizzle" at all.

What the progressive wing voters just refuse to notice is that Bernie plus Warren runs consistently at around 40%, and 40% does not win under pretty much any circumstance. There's no way that an opposing block that is half again as large splits up in any way that allows him to win, because the convention doesn't go to a plurality, it goes to the larger coalition...eventually.

*If Bloomberg doesn't come out of super Tuesday ahead of Biden I don't know that he stays in either. Donor money could dry up on him very abruptly in that situation and he might not be willing to pour a lot into what at that point would look like it could wind up as a vanity campaign.

 

[Kyriakos]

So, Bernie has 35-40% of the delegates, and 60-65% of the delegates are pledged to candidates that will all back each other over Bernie. That sounds like a brokered convention with someone other than Bernie winning, but the real question is just how bad Biden "fizzles," and when. If he comes out of super Tuesday leading the rest of the 'not Bernie or Warren' group, which seems like about an even money bet, then even if he does this fizzling shortly after he still hits the convention with a substantial number of delegates. In greater likelihood though, if he does come out of super Tuesday leading that pack everyone but Bloomberg* and Bern/ren will drop out and Biden won't actually "fizzle" at all.

What the progressive wing voters just refuse to notice is that Bernie plus Warren runs consistently at around 40%, and 40% does not win under pretty much any circumstance. There's no way that an opposing block that is half again as large splits up in any way that allows him to win, because the convention doesn't go to a plurality, it goes to the larger coalition...eventually.

*If Bloomberg doesn't come out of super Tuesday ahead of Biden I don't know that he stays in either. Donor money could dry up on him very abruptly in that situation and he might not be willing to pour a lot into what at that point would look like it could wind up as a vanity campaign.

The majority of Biden voters have Bernie as their second choice. Biden will drop out at some point, that much should be obvious.

 

[Absolution]

Don't Democrats see the disaster they are causing?
Promoting a far-left candidate, they will have no chances of grabbing the swinging votes of the centre.
Choosing Sanders, as much as I appreciate him as a person, is a Democrat vote for another Trump term.

A bit like Corbyn in Britain, but maybe even clearer.

 

[Kyriakos]

Don't Democrats see the disaster they are causing?
Promoting a far-left candidate, they will have no chances of grabbing the sweeping votes of the centre.
Choosing Sanders, as much as I appreciate him as a person, is a Democrat vote for another Trump term.

A bit like Corbyn in Britain, but maybe even clearer.

Trump being a far-right figure somehow doesn't prevent you from making this argument

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The majority of Biden voters have Bernie as their second choice.

Where in the world are you coming up with that?

 

[Hrothbern]

If it would be so that Trump is going to win with big likelyhood regardless which Democratic candidate...

What is then more important:

* maximise the remaining possibility that the miracle happens and a Democratic candidate becomes President.
* maximise that the Democrats win the House of Representatives and/or the Senate to avoid Trump having all three bodies of power