2020 US Election (Part One)

[mitsho]

Interesting to see Biden drop to fifth place. What I find really interesting from a European point of view is that there don't seem to be more voices calling for finally having a women. Maybe that explains Klobuchar rise to a degree.

I read somewhere that if Bernie would drop out in favor of Warren - maybe with a European style coalition contract signed - the race might be over already, since yes - the establishment seems to not want to accept Bernie yet. (the other way around the opposition to him would only harden)

It's still mind boggling to me how much sway those two small states can hold. I would be pissed to never get the chance to vote for Yang for example. If I've been following politics for a year and then it's over before I even get the chance to voice my opinion. This is also a stark contrast to every presidential TV show where they want to milk every situation soap opera style. At least, we might get a brokered convention this year.

Why not make it nation-wide, but with a run-off? Or couple the states together so that you get 3 to 6 "Super Tuesdays"? (I know, existing structures and media attention) It would seem fairer though.

 

[Kyriakos]

Where in the world are you coming up with that?

CNN and NBC have reported it. Are you anti mainstream media now? :/
Seriously, it is from known polls on their shows, so a quick youtube-ing will get you there.

I read somewhere that if Bernie would drop out in favor of Warren - maybe with a European style coalition contract signed - the race might be over already, since yes - the establishment seems to not want to accept Bernie yet. (the other way around the opposition to him would only harden)

Where in the world would someone with three times as many votes as you, drop out in favor of you?

 

[Absolution]

Trump being a far-right figure somehow doesn't prevent you from making this argument

This arguement should have been in minds of 2016 Republicans, to some extent.
But now that we know so well about this wave of authoritatrian/nationalistic poppulist candidants who gain support al around the democratic world, it should be less of a gamble.
And anyway, I'm not sure it would be fair to simply call Trump "far right", in the same sense that Bernie is a far left. It is unfair for the right which had less poppulist agenda and less infantil representatives through the years.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

CNN and NBC have reported it. Are you anti mainstream media now? :/
Seriously, it is from known polls on their shows, so a quick youtube-ing will get you there.

Look at poll data.

Biden is dropping like a rock...and NONE of that is going to Bernie. Bernie is gaining exactly what Warren is losing...across the board. 40% favor Sanders/Warren, 60% don't. That's just the reality, as shown by national and state by state polling. The only way Sanders or Warren gets the nomination is by somehow changing that basic number (40%) or by somehow stealing it.

 

[Kyriakos]

or by somehow stealing it.

If only DNC was an ally then, it would already be in the bag ^_^

 

[Zardnaar]

Best way for Sanders to win is get more momentum and get the numbers over 50%.

His gains are coming at Warren's expense.

Klibucher and Buttigieg seem to be surging.

 

[Rashiminos]

Why not make it nation-wide, but with a run-off? Or couple the states together so that you get 3 to 6 "Super Tuesdays"? (I know, existing structures and media attention) It would seem fairer though.

A nationwide primary runs the risk of candidates paying even less attention to electorally dead states.

***

Trump isn't far right in this hemisphere.

I suspect he won't be far right even by European standards in the next decade.

 

[ThERat]

It amazes me how people could think an establishment figure like Biden Buttigieg or Klobuchar or worse, an Oligarch like Bloomberg could beat Trump.
Oh right, I forgot it worked so extremely well with HRC and before that with Kerry and Gore.
Of course its Bernie who is totally unelectable thats why he loses in every single poll versus Trump lol
You guys are delusional

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Best way for Sanders to win is get more momentum and get the numbers over 50%.

His gains are coming at Warren's expense.

Klibucher and Buttigieg seem to be surging.

Bloomberg is also surging, all at Biden's expense.

Warren should drop out and just let Bernie mash into that 40% ceiling the two of them have established. I don't see how he gets past it, but the way her support has disintegrated he's earned the opportunity to try without having her in the way.

It amazes me how people could think an establishment figure like Biden Buttigieg or Klobuchar or worse, an Oligarch like Bloomberg could beat Trump.
Oh right, I forgot it worked so extremely well with HRC and before that with Kerry and Gore.
Of course its Bernie who is totally unelectable thats why he loses in every single poll versus Trump lol
You guys are delusional

It doesn't matter how he polls against Trump. Failing to crack the 40% mark in the primaries means that he won't be facing Trump.

And I couldn't care less who is "better." I will vote for whoever gets nominated against Trump, just like last time.

 

[luiz]

It amazes me how people could think an establishment figure like Biden Buttigieg or Klobuchar or worse, an Oligarch like Bloomberg could beat Trump.
Oh right, I forgot it worked so extremely well with HRC and before that with Kerry and Gore.
Of course its Bernie who is totally unelectable thats why he loses in every single poll versus Trump lol
You guys are delusional

According to poll averages, both Bloomberg and Biden are stronger against Trump than Sanders.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

 

[Rashiminos]

Not that I necessarily mind the idea, but it's too early for Warren to drop out.
Iowa is conservative and New Hampshire is spectacularly white.

 

[Kyriakos]

It doesn't matter how he polls against Trump. Failing to crack the 40% mark in the primaries means that he won't be facing Trump.

And I couldn't care less who is "better." I will vote for whoever gets nominated against Trump, just like last time.

If 40% = Bernie + Warren, I suppose Biden has been at 0% in these two states, else his voters may also go to Bernie. Again, polls posted also by CNN and friends show Biden supporters mostly having Bernie as their second choice. I see Bern reaching something at least close to 45% at any case, which coupled with being so far away from any other contestant should mean he would win. Of course if the objective is to defeat Trump, it would make little sense to hand over the nomination to #2, who would be (at best) around 35% if even that.
I think you could just admit you don't like Bern - it's fine, we can't all be as charismatic as Hillary. But some can actually defeat a non-clown like Trump.

 

[Camikaze]

She'd be a terrible VP pick for Bernie. Plus I have faith that he'd never pick someone who treated their subordinates the way she has treated her staff.

Apparently Bernie isn't a great boss either, and the attacks on Klobuchar over being a "tough boss" are more than a little tinged with sexism. I'm not sure it's very relevant.

Where in the world are you coming up with that?

Polling from December showed a plurality, rather than a majority: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/

It may have changed, but it's not unreasonable to suspect that voting preferences don't neatly fit into lanes.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If 40% = Bernie + Warren

That's not an if. In Iowa Sanders plus Warren came to 44%. In NH they came to 35%. Next caucus is Nevada, they are polling at 36% combined. Next primary is SC, they are polling at 25% combined. Nationally they are polling at 35% combined.

They are in their lane, alone, and their lane is about 40% wide, tops, and has basically never changed. Every gain Bernie makes comes from Warren, and the lane stays the same. Unless he finds a way to widen that lane he will lose, no matter how enthusiastic that lane might be.

 

[Ironsided]

It doesn't matter how he polls against Trump. Failing to crack the 40% mark in the primaries means that he won't be facing Trump.

Thank you, George Costanza. We’ll make sure to call on you should we ever need a political prophecy to read the diametrical opposite from. After all, you have the track record to prove it from 2016.

Bernie won the first two state by popular votes and that’s a great start. Bernie also had 45% of the non-white vote and is dominant with Latinos and that bodes well for NV and going forward.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Apparently Bernie isn't a great boss either, and the attacks on Klobuchar over being a "tough boss" are more than a little tinged with sexism. I'm not sure it's very relevant.

Polling from December showed a plurality, rather than a majority: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/

It may have changed, but it's not unreasonable to suspect that voting preferences don't neatly fit into lanes.

Polling from December ran heavily on name recognition. "If you don't vote for Biden (former VP) then...oh that guy who ran last time" and vice versa. Buttigieg has established some decent name recognition now, and Bloomberg is swamping the airwaves. I seriously doubt that current polling would produce similar results. The lanes are very clearly defined.

After all, you have the track record to prove it from 2016.

Indeed. I said then that despite his fanatical forty percent he couldn't win against sixty percent, and you may have noticed that he didn't. By all indications he hasn't widened his lane an inch.

 

[Kyriakos]

Indeed. I said then that despite his fanatical forty percent he couldn't win against sixty percent, and you may have noticed that he didn't. By all indications he hasn't widened his lane an inch.

That isn't true, again, check the polls about support for Bern from minorities. He clearly learned from 2016 and this time has a lot of very well-known and influential backers both from "african-american" and "latino" communities. Two famous examples, from a very long list: AOC and Cornel West.

Although this speech was my favorite:

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That isn't true, again, check the polls about support for Bern from minorities. He clearly learned from 2016 and this time has a lot of very well-known and influential backers both from "african-american" and "latino" communities. Two famous examples, from a very long list: AOC and Cornel West.

Odd that you keep saying "check the polls" to someone who is consistently citing actual poll numbers. If you were to actually look at polling results you would be very discouraged, because the symmetry of Warren's decline and Bernie's rise is unmistakable. There is no indication that Bernie has drawn a single vote from Biden, anywhere. All he is doing is taking the support he had last time back from Warren.

 

[Kyriakos]

Odd that you keep saying "check the polls" to someone who is consistently citing actual poll numbers. If you were to actually look at polling results you would be very discouraged, because the symmetry of Warren's decline and Bernie's rise is unmistakable. There is no indication that Bernie has drawn a single vote from Biden, anywhere. All he is doing is taking the support he had last time back from Warren.

Biden is still in the race, Tim. Second-preference is obviously about when Biden inevitably exits the race. I think we can agree Biden will be out at the latest after super Tuesday, no?

Re polls, I don't see why I should hunt for them when I heard them on CNN and NBC. I don't suffer from dementia so you can google them yourself, ie know they are there

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Biden is still in the race, Tim. Second-preference is obviously about when Biden inevitably exits the race. I think we can agree Biden will be out at the latest after super Tuesday, no?

Re polls, I don't see why I should hunt for them when I heard them on CNN and NBC. I don't suffer from dementia so you can google them yourself, ie know they are there

LOL...you think a Biden voter is suddenly going to join the progressive wing if Biden drops out? How is that even a possibility in your mind? That's like saying that if Warren were to drop out the people supporting her would probably shift to Bloomberg. It just makes no sense at all.

The only way Biden drops out is if he gets put out by the Bloomberg-Buttigieg combination eating his support out from under him, which they are clearly working on doing. But that doesn't suddenly blossom the progressive wing to anything more than the vocal minority in the party that they are. That just leaves Bloomberg and Buttigieg fighting for the wider lane.

For Sanders to get nominated the progressive wing needs to produce something at least close to fifty percent of the votes, and they are barely at forty. Unless Sanders has some magic spell that can change that he is going to get beaten again, because even if the wider lane is contested all the way to the convention the nominee will come from somewhere in the majority, not a unified minority.

As to "admitting I don't like Bernie," no problem, I don't. I think he is either unrealistic or intentionally misleading. I also think Biden is too old, Buttigieg too inexperienced, and Bloomberg too Republican. I don't actually like any of them, but in November will vote for whoever gets nominated. Heck, if I had to call out some candidate as being one that I actually like it would probably be Tom Steyer. At least he is running on unabashed Trump hate, and has been from about January 2016.